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MarketWatch: Jim Cramer ... Stock Market to Hit Skids!

Old_Skeet
edited July 2020 in Other Investing
Jim Cramer says ...

“The charts, as interpreted by the legendary Larry Williams, suggest the S&P could climb another 4% or 5% over the next two weeks, but come July 28, he expects the market to start rolling over,” he said. “Given that the expanded unemployment insurance benefits from Washington expire at the end of the month, well, I wouldn’t be surprised” if his call turns out to be correct.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cnbc-mad-money-host-jim-cramer-uses-this-chart-to-predict-the-exact-date-the-stock-market-could-hit-the-skids-2020-07-15

Old_Skeet has been in the trim equity mode for the past month, or so, due to my barometer's extremely overbought stock market reading which keys off of the widely followed S&P 500 Index. Currently, even though I've been trimming, I'm overweight on the equity side of my portfolio but reducing my equity holdings as I write.

Comments

  • rforno

    While I don't use indicators THAT often in my investing/trading, those I do check now and then are just crossing into fairly high extremes that would *suggest* a pullback of some sort is imminent. But as with all indicators, taken with a grain of salt. :)
  • catch22catch22
    From the Cramer video:

    --- but come July 28, he expects the market to start rolling over,” he said. “Given that the expanded unemployment insurance benefits from Washington expire at the end of the month, well, I wouldn’t be surprised” if his call turns out to be correct.

    >>> With the above in mind, why wouldn't one just sell equity today (July 16) and avoid the rush. Move the proceeds to cash, or better yet: to AAA bonds. Your choice.

    NOTE: On April 15 and 16, I had a small body temperature spike. I put this aside as a reaction to the nasty allergy season at the time. But, perhaps I had contracted a muted COVID
    condition. With what is now being reported as a possible ongoing symptom; maybe I now have "confusion" for clear thinking. Being a possibility, what I wrote about selling equity now may not be appropriate.

    Regards,
    Catch
  • johnNjohnN
    edited July 2020
    Cramer maybe off his meds again
    Then again 50% of Wallstreet analyst*s market predictions are right and 50% are wrong
  • rforno
    JohnN, I can take that prediction to the bank with truly 100% certainty. :)
    johnN said:

    Cramer maybe off his meds again
    Then again 50% of Wallstreet analyst*s market predictions are right and 50% are wrong

  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    @johnN- Now that one I like. :)
  • ShostakovichShostakovich
    The timing makes a certain amount of sense given events; but it's not like Jim Cramer can be taken too-too seriously.
  • davidrmorandavidrmoran
    in a week-plus, buckle up maybe

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/opinion/coronavirus-economy-unemployment.html
  • Sven
    You are right on - July 26th is when unemployment benefit ends. Not July 31th.
  • ShostakovichShostakovich
    @davidmoran / @sven -- shouldn't that be priced in and hedged already?
  • Old_Skeet
    edited July 2020
    Hi guys, I've trimmed about 1% from my equity allocation each day thus far this week. I'm now about 14% cash, 45% income and 41% equity. Today will be the final equity trim day for me taking another 1% to the cash area of my portfolio and booking profit in the process. Remember I bought the downdraft during the recent stock market swoon. Within equities I did a rebalance of sorts leaving me heavy in the good dividend paying funds and I have been trimming mostly from my blend and growth style funds. I'm thinking now is the time for value to find traction. From a style perspective I am about 40% value, 30% blend and 30% growth with about 70% being in large caps and 30% in the smids. With this Old_Skeet keeps on ... keeping on.
  • rforno
    Old_Skeet said:

    Hi guys, I've trimmed about 1% from my equity allocation each day thus far this week. I'm now about 14% cash, 45% income and 41% equity. Today will be the final equity trim day for me taking another 1% to the cash area of my portfolio and booking profit in the process. Remember I bought the downdraft during the recent stock market swoon. Within equities I did a rebalance of sorts leaving me heavy in the good dividend paying funds and I have been trimming mostly from my blend and growth style funds. I'm thinking now is the time for value to find traction. From a style perspective I am about 40% value, 30% blend and 30% growth with about 70% being in large caps and 30% in the smids. With this Old_Skeet keeps on ... keeping on.

    You and I have a similar mindset, though I don't believe in rebalancing. While I've not been trimming, my allocations are similar to yours, focusing on quality div payers, and I also bought stuff (some just for trades) during the spring crash.
  • Derf
    @Old_Skeet: As for your 40% value , would you mind breaking it down a bit more? Small, mid,& large %age. My large value has been going down for quite while. Small -mid hanging in there.
    Stay Safe & COOL, Derf
  • Old_Skeet
    edited July 2020
    Hi @Derf, Thank you for your question on the equity style allocation. Thus far into my rebalance according to Xray, LCV 31%, MCV 7%, SCV 2% ... LCB 25%, MCB 4%, SCB 2% ... LCG 19%, MCG 7%, SCG 3%. This breaks out not quite as what I posted above but to 75% large and 25% smid by Xray. The other way is listed by fund category and some of my smid cap funds do hold some large caps in them and some of the large cap funds hold some smids.

    I'm not trimming because of Jim Cramer's call ... I'm trimming because of my barometer having the S&P 500 Index scored as extremely overbought. And, yes stocks can remain overbought for some time but I've made some good money during the rebound rally and decided now was a good time to make hay (so to speak) before it withers away.
  • johnNjohnN
    edited July 2020
    Market suppose to crash this wk....that was the last wk headlines say regarding earnings...maybe up little at end of today. I was expecting blood baths and bought more corp bonds recently
    .
    Unless 50% of US Economy fully reopened again or COVID-19 flattening, hold on to the Disney Rock&Roller mountain ride. We have new bad outbreaks/ spots in India and Mexico now...
  • hank
    edited July 2020
    johnN said:

    Market suppose to crash this wk....that was the last wk headlines say regarding earnings...maybe up little at end of today. I was expecting blood baths and bought more corp bonds recently
    .
    Unless 50% of US Economy fully reopened again or COVID-19 flattening, hold on to the Disney Rock&Roller mountain ride. We have new bad outbreaks/ spots in India and Mexico now...

    Much Adu About Nothing? I always operate under the assumption the market could crash anytime. As a retiree it’s a prudent assumption. Anyone who worries about that all the time probably shouldn’t own equities. As I’ve lamented before, there’s rarely any discussion of risk vs personal situation in these types of discussions. “All-in” is fine if you’re 25 years old. As our life situation evolves / changes, most financial advisors advise incrementally curtailing risk. Therein lies the problem today. Those formerly “safe” alternatives (cash & bonds) yield so little. To this, David’s discussion (July Commentary) of TMSRX is spot-on. My fear (and guess) is that like many funds that have attempted hedging with less success, money flows will be late arriving and equally late departing so that investors in general won’t fare as well as they might with a longer term commitment.

    Personally, life’s more fun when markets are crashing and I can poke around in the rubble looking for really beaten up funds. However, things “feel better” when markets are on a tear and everything’s rising. Like many here, I picked up some bargains back in March / April. While I’ve done nothing with my normal static allocation, the 10-15% in speculative holdings I initiated back than has been pared to only about 6% of portfolio as of today. Ideally, I’ll get that down to near 0 just before the next 25-35% market drubbing.:)

    Re Jim Cramer. I don’t watch him; nor do I find his circus antics particularly annoying. I’d guess his calls are probably around 50% correct. Since it’s essentially “free” TV, you get what you pay for. The one I really can’t stand is Jonathan Ferro on Bloomberg in the morning. Yack. Yack. Like a chicken with his head cut off. Much exaggeration of whatever financial pin might have fallen that day. He’s enough to make me consider switching back to CNBC (except for their right wing-nuts). On the other hand, Ferro is often paired with raspy voiced Tom Keene whose inquisitive attitude and dry humor go well with morning coffee. Like coffee ... take the bitter with the sweet here.

  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    I don't listen to any of those guys. I spend that time allocation listening to you guys, and that's bad enough. :)
  • davidrmorandavidrmoran
    Shostakovich said:

    @davidmoran / @sven -- shouldn't that be priced in and hedged already?

    yeah, if you believe the old adage that the market never reacts to known news, or whatever the quip is

    we will see

    wish I had not bailed mid-may, sure, but am not jumping back in now

  • Mona
    Sven said:

    You are right on - July 26th is when unemployment benefit ends. Not July 31th.

    Given a choice of a few days either way, does that mean if one starts a job on July 27th that they would be entitled to the extra $600 in unemployment benefits for the full period (as we know it today)?

    I thought one needed to remain unemployed through July 31st.

    Thanks,

    Mona

  • Derf
    Old_Joe +1
    Derf
  • MikeMMikeM
    @Mona, I believe you are correct. The final week for the covid benefits is "the week of" July 26, or another way of saying it, the week starting July 26 is covered by for the $600 added covid unemployment benefit.

    I know this because the company I work for furloughed the production personnel starting 7/26 so they could get the benefit.
  • BenWPBenWP
    While I don’t trade off of their recommendations, I do find the gunslingers CNBC has on at noon and 5PM are often worth listening to. There’s a rotating cast of six or seven traders who do a lot more than bloviate, à la Cramer. Unfortunately, the latter is on in the morning when I check the futures and overseas markets.
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    Thanks, @Derf.
  • hank
    edited July 2020
    With 390 “hits” and climbing for this Jim Cramer thread, somebody must be listening to Cramer and / or similar talking heads. Outside of PBS, is there anything worth watching on TV? Personally, I truly enjoy following the various financial markets (S&P, NASDAQ, Europe, Australia, Japan, Latin America, bonds gold, oil, etc.), so Bloomberg holds some appeal weekdays for sheer entertainment. And I’m not sure I’d agree that “not knowing” is preferable to “knowing” what’s happening in any area of human endeavor, be science, politics, or finance. Admittedly, hitting the “mute“ button is one way some choose to view these financial networks.
  • zenbrewzenbrew
    edited July 2020
    @MikeM- at least for states such as California & Virginia, the $600 additional benefit, it's the week ending July 25th is the last week, which is filed on the 26th or thereafter. I would think that would be the same for all states but I could be wrong.

    California
  • MikeMMikeM
    Thanks @zenbrew. I have not looked to much into the unemployment option since I'm not part of the production group being furloughed. I have seen the notes from our HR office though telling exactly what to put into the NY state unemployment forms to receive the added $600 for the week of 7/26 to 7/31. If HR has the rules wrong there will be many unhappy faces coming back to work after the 1 week furlough. I agree though that the $600 rule has to be the same for each state.
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