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Buy-Sell-Ponder, anticipating April, 2018



  • edited April 2018
    AndyJ said:

    An important qualifier to the Giroux comments on utilities begins at 17:08. He emphasizes that he's not talking about traditional utes as they exist today, but as they're certain to evolve over the time frame he's talking about -- to include more renewables, to service electric vehicles, to retire coal plants in favor of cheaper wind and solar. He's looking ahead, not behind.

    I started to add that market-cap ute funds may not capture that dynamic for a while, but I remembered reading recently that even mega-ute Duke E'gy has a significant renewables program going, so maybe a ute etf would fit the Giroux narrative.

    Thanks @bee ... I did watch the full Giroux video and agree it’s interesting & instructive. He’s perhaps the current “golden boy” at TRP. And for great reason. When I mentioned in another thread about reading various opinions and forming my own conclusions re valuations, Giroux is one I listen to / read on a regular basis. As Giroux alludes, TRP has a great research team to back their headline managers.

    He sounds “target-on” in his utilities analysis, which @AndyJ summarizes nicely. Not sure if Giroux mentioned broadband, etc., but that’s a big part of the picture. Where I have a bit of a problem with Giroux is he seems to be downplaying inflation - citing many disinflationary trends, especially automation. Yes. But - The definition of inflation as I understand it really focuses on the value of the U.S. dollar. So I’m looking at it more from a currency standpoint. Regardless of those disinflationary trends, if the Dollar weakens (largely a result of excessive government borrowing), prices of a lot of things have to rise. So, I continue to hold some modest exposure to gold & commodities - even though TRP has long been bearish on those sectors.
  • edited April 2018
    MikeM said:

    I doubt you were serious about selling everything on March 11
    No, @Hank, that was my humor:)

    I'm perfectly fine with my investing style, 1/2 in a robo, 1/2 self managed. Don't feel I've missed out. Risk and reward is comfortable. PRWCX is the largest holding in my self managed portfolio which right now sits at about 29% cash. I'm perfectly happy to hold cash with a good portion of it ending up in a CD ladder and MM. I've increased cash over the last few months by taking profits on a few individual stocks that did really well, BABA Alibaba, V Visa, VLO Valero, and selling off bond funds, a big chuck of my PONAX and selling out of PFIAX and PRSNX (though I did reinvest some of that bond money in MAINX to stay in Asia bond market).

    Now, just sitting back and watching the circus.
    Just bumping MikeM’s response up a bit. Thanks for the reply Mike.

    PS - @MikeM - Please know that humor’s not allowed on the board anymore! :)

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  • edited April 2018
    Hi @ Maurice,

    Don't you think that that is quite a wad to put into just one fund?
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  • edited April 2018
    @Maurice, I have a great deal of respect for Ted. However, this is your money and although I'm not of the camp of owning just a few funds I have a cap on how much money I will put into any one fund. Not saying this applies to you. When I saw lump sum pension distribution ... Well, I was thinking a wad! And, this gave me pause to be invested into a single fund. Probally, still is a wad.
  • @Old_Skeet , That 1 fund is as diversified as you can be. Probably more diversified then your 50+ funds. Maurice is buying a portfolio, not a fund. So, given that, what would be the concern?
  • edited April 2018
    Hi @MikeM,

    Even though VGWAX has four managers listed, in short words, manager and strategy risk. Plus, it is a relative new fund with little history. Again, I am of the camp to spread risk and limit the amount I will invest in a fund based upon its type. An example. For VGWAX I would consider it much like I do a hybrid income fund and limit my exposure to no more than six percent of my portfolio. Currently, the two largest positions I own are FKINX and AMECX which are my two oldest holdings and account for about 6% each of my portfolio. In the growth area of the portfolio where there is more risk so I limit a fund to being no more than 2% of the overall portfolio with most being about 1+%. The growth area of the portfolio makes up about 16% to 17% of the overall portflio and currently holds 13 funds within five sleeves with one of these sleeves being my spiff sleeve. The growth area of the portfolio is capped at no more than 20% nor less than 10% of the overall portfolio. I have some room for expansion should I wish to increase my holdings in the growth area. Most likely this would take place within the spiff sleeve.

    In addition, I limit my all equity funds to be no more than 30% of the overall portfolio. I have a total of seven all equity fund sleeves with two being in the growth & income area of the portfolio and the other five in the growth area.

    This leaves three sleeves to hold hybrid type funds with the largest being my hybrid income sleeve followed by my domestic hybrid sleeve and global hybrid sleeve. The hybrid income sleeve is found in the income area of the portfolio while the other two are found in the growth & income area. Currently, my hybird funds make up a little more than 45% of the overall portfolio. This leaves about 10% in my income sleeve and 20% in the cash sleeves. One being my demand cash sleeve and the other being my investment cash sleeve that holds my CD ladder and long term savings.

    So, perhaps VGWAX is as well diverisfied as you say it is.

    Now, I wonder if it kicks off the income streem my portfolio does?

    Last year it generated 4.2% in income yield (on valuation) which is more than I need to support my standard of living. And, on amount invested it was about 5.2%. With this, I believe I have reached critical mass and happy with the way I have things organized.
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  • @Old_skeet, my reply was about target date fund VTTVX. You can not get more diversified then that if you hold 100 funds. It is approximately a 60:40 mix of total domestic stock market, total domestic bond market, total Int'l stock market, total Int'l bond market.

    @Maurice, I've actually decided to use T.Rowe Price retirement fund 2030 as a core holding in my self managed. I've been following those funds for quite a while, and they are pretty hard to beat. You are right though, they are poo-pooed by many, but I would venture a guess and say many people here on this discussion board would be well served by mainly owning just 1 retirement date fund and play along the edges for alpha. Just my 2-cents.
  • @Maurice, at the risk of its being so boring you would never look at the investment again, check out the holding breadth and proportions of the AO_ family --- AOA, AOR, AOM, AOK.
  • edited April 2018

    Last week Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 161 indicating that the S&P 500 Index was oversold based upon the barometer's metrics. This week the barometer closed the week with a reading of 155 indicating that the Index has now moved to an undervalue reading.

    Although, I closed out my spiffs a couple of weeks ago I move some spiff sell proceed money into my emerging market fund (NEWFX) last week; and, this week I added to my commodity strategy fund (PCLAX) which gained better than 5% this past week.

    Years back I was more of a momentum strategy investor and have migrated more towards a modern portfolio theory investor. My portfolio returns were much higher under momentum strategies than they have been under modern portfolio theory. With this, I am moving some money back into momentum strategies although I never did completely leave momentum. PCLAX is a momentum position within my portfolio. This week, I may continue with momentum and put some money to work in my small/mid cap sleeve or I may continue to build my commodity position should it maintain it's upward move.

    Wishing all ... "Good Investing."

  • at the risk of its being so boring you would never look at the investment again, check out the holding breadth and proportions of the AO_ family --- AOA, AOR, AOM, AOK.
    @davidrmoran . you suggested those funds to me in the past and I did take a look. I think it is a great way to anchor a portfolio, but I did find that they under-perform a good retirement fund option like found through TRP. FWIW. But for those who want one-stop simplicity and diversification, very good options.
  • edited April 2018
    apologies for repeating myself (not that uncommon :) ) !

    I am ready to believe that one can do better than AO_.
  • "I am ready to believe that one can do better." Grin. "Endeavor to persevere." (Josie Wales.)
    Chief Dan George.
  • edited April 2018

    Last week Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 155 indicating the the S&P 500 Index was undervalued. Not much has changed as this week as it finished at 154. However, there was a big move in the US 10 YR Treasury which has moved over the past four weeks from a yield of 2.74% to 2.96%. For me to be a buyer in equities I'll need to see a reading of around 160 on the barometer's scale and perhaps a little higher. I'm thinking the reason for rise in yield is due to our Govenment's spending was greater than its tax receipts. Thus the need to print money which is inflationary.

    Some of the things that performed well, for me, last week were my large cap growth funds, my commodity strategy fund and my regional bank fund pick. In addition, my convertible securities fund was up about 0.50%.

    Wishing all ... "Good Investing."

  • edited April 2018

    This week was much the same as the week before with Old_Skeet's market barometer closing the week with a reading of 154 (boarderline between fair value and undervalued). The 2/10 treasury yield spread narrowed a bit from 0.51 to 0.47 indicating that the yield curve flattened a bit more. The short interest for the 500 Index remains at 1.6 days to cover. Starting in May an interest rate feed will be added to the barometer as a secondary feed now that interest rates seem to be having an influence on the markets. The primary feeds remain the same and consist of an earnings feed, a breath feed and a technical score feed.

    For the past week the things that worked best, for me, were my value funds found in the growth & income area of my portfolio along with my infrastructure fund found in the growth area.

    Have a good week ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."

  • I recently invested in HMY (MMHAX) mainstay mackay (LW at FIDO).

    I've been watching this category for a while and decided a few weeks ago to dip my toe.

    Any thoughts? Too late? Too early? I've been invested in Muni's before but not HYM. I'm a little leary of the HYM market place but it seems to move three steps forward for every step backward.

    What do you see going forward for this category, near-term, long-term? Sell-off?
    Steady move up or down?

    Any suggestions, opinions or thoughts are very welcome!
  • edited August 2018

    This is such a great thread ... It would be nice if someone would start hosting it again. I did it for a couple of years and felt ... Well, it was time to pass it on to another ... Wonder what happened to @pudnhead?

    It looks as @Crash started this one. Perhaps, he knows something?
  • @Old_skeet was wondering the same thing about Pudd
  • edited August 2018
    Old_Skeet said:

    This is such a great thread ... It would be nice if someone would start hosting it again. I did it for a couple of years and felt ... Well, it was time to pass it on to another ... Wonder what happened to @pudnhead?


    Re The Pudd - Don’t know - But I like to think he got it right with one of his typical “long shots” and won a ton of money. I’d guess he’s out relaxing somewhere on the sun-deck of his 200-foot yacht mid-Atlantic and out of reach of any communications. Or, he might be reading the board somewhere and laughing at those of us still striving to make the perfect call.

    Of course, anyone is free to post their recent trades at any time, regardless of the BOS thread. I’ll say I do enjoy reading your normally very thorough weekly commentaries, although my approach is far less complex - perhaps because I hold maybe a quarter the number of funds you do. Was wondering whether you posted this weekend? Perhaps I missed seeing it?

    Personally, I’m in the distance out from retirement phase (I guess similar to an Apollo flight out on the far side of the moon) and so don’t take much risk. I’m also leary of this long term bull and geopolitical environment and rising rate scenario. Still sitting with a stable Core weighting just over 75%; about 19.8% in short-term near cash-equivalency funds; and a little over 5% in an equity fund. That’s not as Draconian as it sounds, since within that Core are some moderate risk funds like DODBX, RPGAX, OAKBX, PRPFX - along with a slice of mining, real estate and global infrastructure.

    Last week I switched my real estate holding from Oppenheimer (OREAX) to Price (TRREX) for no good reason except that my accounts are held directly through the fund companies. While the performances are near identical, it had the effect of burning some excess cash at Price and building a bit at Oppenheimer which might be put to good use there should market valuations drop. Oppenheimer has a slightly more aggressive near cash equivalancy fund in OUSGX which might yield a percent better longer term than TRBUX which I use at Price. And the transaction gave me a chance to toss a few more dollars into my depressed gold fund, OPGSX - literally pennies, because I consider gold too volatile to speculate on - though continue to like it longer term. Except for that minor rearranging of deck chairs, nothing cooking.
  • TedTed
    edited August 2018
    @MFO Members: Just my opinion, but suggest a new thread, Buy-Sell-Ponder, anticipating August/September, 2018.
  • edited August 2018
    I'll step forward, again, and restart the thread as we open September. Some may remember this thread was started by Scott who left the board three years ago, or so; and, I kept it going with his blessing. In the meantime the below link will take you to my last reported thinking.
  • beebee
    edited August 2018
    I'll share...
    What seems to be working in my portfolio YTD:
    FSUTX - strong steady Mo (momentum) since March 2018
    FSMEX - Strong Mo
    FSRPX - Strong Mo
    POAGX - Aggressive active management
    PRMTX - Keeps on impressing. A category over-achiever
    VHCOX - Aggressive active management
    PRNHX - a small position that has had a big year YTD (investors remorse, wish I owned more)
    USNQX - Volatile, but rewarding

    Steady Eddy's (have good risk-reward characteristics):
    PRWCX - Love this funds goal... "achieve market returns with 2/3rd the downside risk"
    VMVFX - a new fund that seems worth DCA into
    FMIJX - A short lived fund (2011) that offers exposure outside the US
    BRUFX - Manager continues to reduce downside risk while optimizing upside
    BTBFX - I was impressed with how this fund navigated 2008
    VHT - Healthcare seems to be a fund for all seasons
    PRHSX - ditto HC
    What seems to have faltered:
    PRIDX - Struggling, but a hold for me...down 2% YTD
    SFGIX - Highly correlated losses with EM losses...down 11% YTD
    VWO - Strong US currencies are making EM markets less profitable...down 10% YTD
    HJPSX - A country that has relied very heavily on QE for Equity-Inflation
    VWINX - having a rare negative year
    MINDX - Seems to catch cold when EM sneezes
    PONAX - We've parted ways...small position
    PARWX - A new position

    Ticker YTD Perf Port WT
    VHT 12.20% 0.21%
    VHCOX 11.10% 5.43%
    VWINX -1.04% 2.26%
    PRHSX 13.72% 6.53%
    PRNHX 20.11% 0.11%
    PRIDX -1.96% 4.87%
    PRMTX 9.70% 2.88%
    PRWCX 6.19% 14.64%
    BRUFX 3.46% 4.89%
    POAGX 13.08% 15.53%
    VWO -9.95% 1.58%
    PONAX -0.39% 0.27%
    SFGIX -11.26% 4.51%
    FMIJX -1.27% 4.58%
    MINDX -2.07% NA
    USNQX 15.82% NA
    FSRPX 19.47% 4.82%
    FSMEX 19.62% 4.34%
    VMVFX 6.28% 2.38%
    BTBFX 5.67% 2.38%
    FRIFX 1.84% 2.28%
    HJPSX -5.11% 2.10%
    FSUTX 10.25% 2.45%
    PARWX New 3.96%
    USAXX Cash 7%

    Allocation Weights/Returns YTD
  • I exited out of my EM debt position...TGINX. This may indeed be a buying opportunity, but things sure look like it could get worse before it gets better.
  • PRESSmUP said:

    I exited out of my EM debt position...TGINX. This may indeed be a buying opportunity, but things sure look like it could get worse before it gets better.

    Same here with EM debt: out of PREMX. But I need the YIELD, so I'm into PTIAX multi-sector and RPIHX global HY.
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