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I'm sitting tight. If we get down to 2400 or so on the S&P I may add. The US now feels a bit like an emerging market. You can't just look at the fundamentals. There's political risk too.
@Crash: I also sold out of my utilities, but for different reason. PNM makes no money on me because I have solar panels I sold out because I was overweight utilities and saw higher interest rates as a negative for that sector. Put proceeds into MAPOX.
Re: Mairs & Power: I'm constantly disappointed that routine fund info (the latest dividend, for example) are difficult to find, or simply MISSING. The website is pretty useless if all that's there is OLD news...... I also note that TRP has not posted the end-of-March dividends for my funds, in terms of div. per share. I do see the hard-dollar amount in my account.
@Crash, I use M* for dividend info, not the M&P website, its usually up pretty fast. Since this is such a low turnover fund at 13%, not much changes quarter to quarter. I was looking for a rather staid but consistent fund as a replacement for utilities I sold. I tend to have a barbell type of portfolio, with aggressive funds counterbalanced with funds such as MAPOX and VWINX.
Pondering buying a broad-basket commodities ETF like USCI (United States Commodity Index Fund). Seems to be holding it's own while the market drops and commodities are typically a good play as inflation rises (I think). Anyone have any thoughts on the commodities sector?
@MFO Members: When you live but the sword, you die by the sword ! Thanks, POTUS Regards, Ted TRBCX:-(2.53) % MSOPX:-(2.24)% % QQQ:- (2.96) % PONCX: .16% IVV: - % -(2.32)%
Overall, my portfolio was down less than 1% today but the one fund that was clearly an outlier - BASIX, up 1.21% today. I'm sure some of it was due to holding treasuries, but still, that seems out of line.
Silly me for trusting *M's portfolio manager at 7:30 pm E.S.T. I see that BASIX has been changed to down -.10 on the day. Just another reason why I don't subscribe to *M.
A few funds I own that held there own today: SFGIX - down 0.74% (corrected) PONAX - down 0.08% (corrected) PTIAX - up 0.04% MINDX - down 0.12%
Others I follow: USAGX - up 0.88% PRPFX - down 0.22%
****************************************** Yes, glad to see a nice coincidence with SFGIX: not down as much today as many others, but recent $$ I threw into it got registered into the account on this very DOWN day. Others I own which did not get crucified: PREMX down by just a penny. PRSNX was FLAT. My small-caps got hammered. PRDSX and VSCIX.
Have to wait a day to see how SFGIX and other foreign funds hold up, especially ones with a lot in Asia, no? Most of the markets they're in were closed when Wall Street tanked, but most follow suit the next day...
I've been traveling in Central America the past couple of weeks spending a lot of time in Panama. There is a lot of new construction taking place in Panama with a good bit of the old infrastcture (ferry crossings) being replace with modern suspension bridges. In addition, they are developing a modern day mass transit system which is underground in most of Panama City but will be above ground in other parts. Still, the main economic driver for Panama is the canal. With this, there are those that have (a few) and those that have not (a good number). An example of this is a senior pilot on the canal can make upwards toward (and above) $250,000.00 leaving the average worker and citizen earning much less. Naturally, those working on the canal earn much more than those working elsewhere.
Life can be good for some as our host were of good means. But, for the Panama Indians still living in the interior (where no roads go) life is as it much was many, many years ago. Visited two tribes on our visit and while life is simple for them it is something I'll leave to them to enjoy.
Moving on ... This week Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 161 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is oversold. With this, I did a little buying in a couple of my hybrid funds (PMAIX & AZNAX) and opened a position in a money market mutal fund (AMAXX) putting a good bit of my demand cash held in one of my accounts into it as its current seven day yield is about 1.5%.
Next week earnings season begins. I'm not sure if stellar earnings will be enough to overshadow the threat of a trade war. However, I am looking for earnings to surprise to the upside. Might give us some temporary relief but until the tariff on imported goods mess is concluded I not looking for much advance in the stock market. Perhaps, by fall this "turd" will have passed.
This past week my three weekly mutual fund leaders came from the growth & income area of my portfolio and were PMAIX, HWIAX & SVAAX (all held in different sleeves).
Closed out my spiffs this past week (consumer discretionary) and moved the other spiff position (emerging markets) sell proceeds into my emerging market fund found in my specialty sleeve. This increases my on going exposure in emerging markets (NEWFX) within my portfolio.
It's good to be back home ... and, thanks for stopping by and reading.
Slowly reducing my cash position and investing in SIGIX and MAINX.
Matthews is shining these days, and MAINX has been in a sweet spot for a while. It's been doing great on dollar-down days, and pretty much holding its own when the buck's flat or up.
In Asia equity, I've been ~ 50-50 in MASGX (growth) and MAVRX (value) for the past year; seems like when one has a bit of a struggle, the other one steps up. Holding, not adding, for now ... the S. Korea holdings in the latter are dragging right now, with trade and tariffs in focus.
I'm wondering what the catalyst to buy now is. Sven, old skeet? Do you guys think the correction is over?
I did put a few Limit orders in on stocks I like, Amazon, Home Depot, Visa, Alibaba. Nothing big. But they have to drop another 12-20% range to click in. Maybe by June.
Although Old_Skeet's market barometer helps me to determine when there is value in the 500 Index it can not forecast the high in peaks or low in troughs. I'm thinking until we get through the tariff mess stocks are going to be range bound even if earnings surprise to the upside. Trying to perdict what the markets are going to do short term can be a chanellege especially when they follow headline news more so than fundamentals. Perhaps, by fall things will start to come around; however, this is an unknown. With this, I plan to buy around the edges when my market barometer indicates good value along with keeping within my asset allocation. This is one of the reasons I currently favor hybrid funds as it spreads newely invested money over a wide spectrum of assets. Just this past week two of my three weekly leading funds were hybrid type funds (PMAIX & HWIAX) and the other was a large cap value fund (SVAAX).
Currently, I'm invested toward the upper range within my equity allocation based upon my barometer's reading which drives an equity weighting matrix indicator. The indicator suggest that I sould currently be at 54% equity (when set for my risk tolerance) while I am at currently at 53% equity. Should the 500 Index continue to pullback and the equity weighting matrix indicator continue to rise I may indeed increase my equity weighting within my portfolio.
I'm thinking ... your thinking ... is probally just as good as mine on the markets as you appear, to me, to be a seasoned investor yourself although it seems we sometimes differ when it comes to some investment strategies.
07 April: Yes, small amounts on a monthly schedule into SFGIX here, and doing the same with PRIDX. My bonds are holding up not badly. Kinda surprised. PREMX and PRSNX.
@MikeM, No catalyst on whatsoever to buy now. I rebalanced out of equity in December and again in January as market moved up without convincing reasons. Aa a consequence I am at the highest % of cash & bonds for the last 20 years - because I have don't confidence of the market and the politics. I have stated several times here on the tariff on our trading partners and its global consequences. During last two months of wild swings I basically sat tight. Only last Friday I started to put $ with managers whom I have the highest conviction. This includes Andrew Foster, Teresa Kong, Alex English (FMI team), and Warren Buffet.
Wish I am more upbeat on the market. Frankly I am very concerned.
Thanks @Sven and @Old_Skeet for your responses. When I read here about others buying now I just wonder what they are thinking. Not in a 'your wrong' way, but in a 'what am I missing' thought. I tend to be to conservative sometimes.
Sven, we are on the same page for sure. Old skeet, I never feel like a seasoned investor. Often I feel like I'm winging it. With that understanding of myself, I've learned to just buy and hold for the most part and play around the edges like you, but probably with a less disciplined approach. I don't want to buy high though and I think everything may be high right now. Thanks guys.
Interesting ... Your brain, like most of ours, is having to deal with the “fear of missing out” (on future gains), which is an entirely normal human reaction - owing in large measure to the length and extent of the recent bull market.
While buying the dips is often profitable, sometimes it amounts to nothing more than grabbing for the proverbial falling knife. I think you are on the right track in sticking with your plan and trying to err on the side of caution. No crystal ball or expertise in market analysis here. Like you, I try to read a lot of varying opinions from those with more knowledge, qualifications, and experience than myself - some appearing in David’s monthly Commentary (ies). And than shape my own conclusions.
But had you done so you would probably be money ahead at the moment. The S&P 500 closed at 2786.5 on Friday, March 9, near a record high. The NASDAQ actually did reach a record high that day (7561). Since than there’s been a lot of turbulence - as even veteran Jack Bogle has noted.
Our situations are much different. But FWIW, the only “buying” I’ve done in recent weeks is to dribble a bit into PRWCX, bringing cash levels a bit closer to normal. (Some don’t even place that one in the equity camp - considering it a balanced or allocation fund.)
Dry powder is better than shot powder. As Yogi noted, the nice thing about cash is that “you can spend it.”
@MikeM, Time like today is to re-evaluate your risk tolerance and your asset allocation. Only you know yourself. Previous bear markets in 1987, 2000-2002, and 2008 should remind every investors the outcomes and how they can plan accordingly. By nature I am a conservative investors but I learned long ago that I like limit the magnitude of drawdown, while making incremental gain above inflation is good enough. Last year was an aberration, no joke. Several rebalancing last year helped to keep the allocation to fall within my comfort range. What hank posted above made lots of sense. I wholeheartedly agree with PRWCX which a core holding of mine.
For those of us who have cash (or dry powder as hank called it) we may tip toed into funds/managers with high confidence. But this is not the same as dumpster driving or catching a falling knife. Since everyone situation is different and only you can make the decision. Best wishes in your investing.
I'm perfectly fine with my investing style, 1/2 in a robo, 1/2 self managed. Don't feel I've missed out. Risk and reward is comfortable. PRWCX is the largest holding in my self managed portfolio which right now sits at about 29% cash. I'm perfectly happy to hold cash with a good portion of it ending up in a CD ladder and MM. I've increased cash over the last few months by taking profits on a few individual stocks that did really well, BABA Alibaba, V Visa, VLO Valero, and selling off bond funds, a big chuck of my PONAX and selling out of PFIAX and PRSNX (though I did reinvest some of that bond money in MAINX to stay in Asia bond market).
Comments
And I continue to watch PDI's performance in awe.
SFGIX - down 0.74% (corrected)
PONAX - down 0.08% (corrected)
PTIAX - up 0.04%
MINDX - down 0.12%
Others I follow:
USAGX - up 0.88%
PRPFX - down 0.22%
Regards,
Ted
TRBCX:-(2.53) %
MSOPX:-(2.24)% %
QQQ:- (2.96) %
PONCX: .16%
IVV: - % -(2.32)%
A few funds I own that held there own today:
SFGIX - up 0.82%
PONAX - 0.16%
PTIAX - up 0.04%
MINDX - down 0.12%
Others I follow:
USAGX - up 0.88%
PRPFX - down 0.22%
SFGIX - down 0.74%
PONAX - down 0.08%
The rest seem correct:
PTIAX - up 0.04%
MINDX - down 0.12%
USAGX - up 0.88%
PRPFX - down 0.22%
Yes, glad to see a nice coincidence with SFGIX: not down as much today as many others, but recent $$ I threw into it got registered into the account on this very DOWN day.
Others I own which did not get crucified: PREMX down by just a penny. PRSNX was FLAT. My small-caps got hammered. PRDSX and VSCIX.
I've been traveling in Central America the past couple of weeks spending a lot of time in Panama. There is a lot of new construction taking place in Panama with a good bit of the old infrastcture (ferry crossings) being replace with modern suspension bridges. In addition, they are developing a modern day mass transit system which is underground in most of Panama City but will be above ground in other parts. Still, the main economic driver for Panama is the canal. With this, there are those that have (a few) and those that have not (a good number). An example of this is a senior pilot on the canal can make upwards toward (and above) $250,000.00 leaving the average worker and citizen earning much less. Naturally, those working on the canal earn much more than those working elsewhere.
Life can be good for some as our host were of good means. But, for the Panama Indians still living in the interior (where no roads go) life is as it much was many, many years ago. Visited two tribes on our visit and while life is simple for them it is something I'll leave to them to enjoy.
Moving on ... This week Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 161 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is oversold. With this, I did a little buying in a couple of my hybrid funds (PMAIX & AZNAX) and opened a position in a money market mutal fund (AMAXX) putting a good bit of my demand cash held in one of my accounts into it as its current seven day yield is about 1.5%.
Next week earnings season begins. I'm not sure if stellar earnings will be enough to overshadow the threat of a trade war. However, I am looking for earnings to surprise to the upside. Might give us some temporary relief but until the tariff on imported goods mess is concluded I not looking for much advance in the stock market. Perhaps, by fall this "turd" will have passed.
This past week my three weekly mutual fund leaders came from the growth & income area of my portfolio and were PMAIX, HWIAX & SVAAX (all held in different sleeves).
Closed out my spiffs this past week (consumer discretionary) and moved the other spiff position (emerging markets) sell proceeds into my emerging market fund found in my specialty sleeve. This increases my on going exposure in emerging markets (NEWFX) within my portfolio.
It's good to be back home ... and, thanks for stopping by and reading.
I wish all "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
In Asia equity, I've been ~ 50-50 in MASGX (growth) and MAVRX (value) for the past year; seems like when one has a bit of a struggle, the other one steps up. Holding, not adding, for now ... the S. Korea holdings in the latter are dragging right now, with trade and tariffs in focus.
I did put a few Limit orders in on stocks I like, Amazon, Home Depot, Visa, Alibaba. Nothing big. But they have to drop another 12-20% range to click in. Maybe by June.
Although Old_Skeet's market barometer helps me to determine when there is value in the 500 Index it can not forecast the high in peaks or low in troughs. I'm thinking until we get through the tariff mess stocks are going to be range bound even if earnings surprise to the upside. Trying to perdict what the markets are going to do short term can be a chanellege especially when they follow headline news more so than fundamentals. Perhaps, by fall things will start to come around; however, this is an unknown. With this, I plan to buy around the edges when my market barometer indicates good value along with keeping within my asset allocation. This is one of the reasons I currently favor hybrid funds as it spreads newely invested money over a wide spectrum of assets. Just this past week two of my three weekly leading funds were hybrid type funds (PMAIX & HWIAX) and the other was a large cap value fund (SVAAX).
Currently, I'm invested toward the upper range within my equity allocation based upon my barometer's reading which drives an equity weighting matrix indicator. The indicator suggest that I sould currently be at 54% equity (when set for my risk tolerance) while I am at currently at 53% equity. Should the 500 Index continue to pullback and the equity weighting matrix indicator continue to rise I may indeed increase my equity weighting within my portfolio.
I'm thinking ... your thinking ... is probally just as good as mine on the markets as you appear, to me, to be a seasoned investor yourself although it seems we sometimes differ when it comes to some investment strategies.
Wish I am more upbeat on the market. Frankly I am very concerned.
Sven, we are on the same page for sure. Old skeet, I never feel like a seasoned investor. Often I feel like I'm winging it. With that understanding of myself, I've learned to just buy and hold for the most part and play around the edges like you, but probably with a less disciplined approach. I don't want to buy high though and I think everything may be high right now. Thanks guys.
Interesting ... Your brain, like most of ours, is having to deal with the “fear of missing out” (on future gains), which is an entirely normal human reaction - owing in large measure to the length and extent of the recent bull market.
While buying the dips is often profitable, sometimes it amounts to nothing more than grabbing for the proverbial falling knife. I think you are on the right track in sticking with your plan and trying to err on the side of caution. No crystal ball or expertise in market analysis here. Like you, I try to read a lot of varying opinions from those with more knowledge, qualifications, and experience than myself - some appearing in David’s monthly Commentary (ies). And than shape my own conclusions.
I doubt you were serious about selling everything on March 11. https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/39024/because-nobody-knows-what-s-going-to-happen-next
But had you done so you would probably be money ahead at the moment. The S&P 500 closed at 2786.5 on Friday, March 9, near a record high. The NASDAQ actually did reach a record high that day (7561). Since than there’s been a lot of turbulence - as even veteran Jack Bogle has noted.
Our situations are much different. But FWIW, the only “buying” I’ve done in recent weeks is to dribble a bit into PRWCX, bringing cash levels a bit closer to normal. (Some don’t even place that one in the equity camp - considering it a balanced or allocation fund.)
Dry powder is better than shot powder. As Yogi noted, the nice thing about cash is that “you can spend it.”
Regards and thanks for all the great posts.
For those of us who have cash (or dry powder as hank called it) we may tip toed into funds/managers with high confidence. But this is not the same as dumpster driving or catching a falling knife. Since everyone situation is different and only you can make the decision. Best wishes in your investing.
I'm perfectly fine with my investing style, 1/2 in a robo, 1/2 self managed. Don't feel I've missed out. Risk and reward is comfortable. PRWCX is the largest holding in my self managed portfolio which right now sits at about 29% cash. I'm perfectly happy to hold cash with a good portion of it ending up in a CD ladder and MM. I've increased cash over the last few months by taking profits on a few individual stocks that did really well, BABA Alibaba, V Visa, VLO Valero, and selling off bond funds, a big chuck of my PONAX and selling out of PFIAX and PRSNX (though I did reinvest some of that bond money in MAINX to stay in Asia bond market).
Now, just sitting back and watching the circus.
NYMT looks interesting https://seekingalpha.com/article/4161659-consider-mortgage-reits-8_6-percent-yielding-fixed-floating-preferred-stock