Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
•The Indiana Senate voted 19-31 against a bill to redraw the state’s congressional districts to favor Republicans.
•The defeat of the bill was a major blow to President Donald Trump, who has pushed for redistricting nationwide to favor the GOP in the 2026 congressional midterm elections.
Apparently, jobs are worse than previously thought!
•At his Wednesday news conference, Chair Jerome Powell mentioned several times that there likely has been negative job growth in recent months, a condition that would argue for easier monetary policy.
•Balancing support for the labor market and quieting inflation will be central to policymaking as the Fed heads into 2026.
They will let inflation take a back seat to jobs, so expect another leg up. This will occur at the same time companies are continuing to raise prices.
Another huge loss for trump. A grand jury refused, twice now, to re-indict Letitia James. As many are aware, only the prosecution gets to present to a grand jury. Why the saying exists "that a grand jury can indict a ham sandwich". The deck is stacked. Yet, these buffoons have now had one case tossed, and two more refused by a grand jury.
Just how transparently bad does a case have to be for a grand jury to not even let it proceed to an actual trial? The answer: "trump bad".
Apparently, everyone is now fully aware that trump is running purely political prosecutions, with zero substance. And giving him the middle finger.
"Voters turned to Trump in 2024 in large part because he promised that his understanding of the economy would enable him to bring down the prices that had risen in the global inflation spike after the Covid-19 pandemic shut down the world economy."
"Within weeks of the election, Trump began to back off on that promise, telling a reporter for Time magazine in December 2024 that 'it’s very hard' to bring down prices. Then in April he launched a tariff war that began to raise prices, while his on-again, off-again tariff rates discouraged businesses from investing while they waited to see what made economic sense."
"Americans are not impressed with Trump’s handling of the economy. A poll by AP/NORC, which stands for Associated Press/National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago—a very reputable polling collaboration—released today shows that only 31% of American adults approve of Trump’s management of the economy, with 67% disapproving. Among Independents, that number breaks down to 15% approving and 80% disapproving."
Comments: The vast majority of American adults disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy. Other recent polls have shown similar results.
"Trump defended the tariffs that have raised prices by suggesting that the tariffs are protecting major items and that if people are feeling the pinch of higher prices, they 'can give up certain products. You could give up pencils. That’s under the China policy, you know, every child can get 37 pencils. They only need one or two, you know, they don’t need that many. But you always need, you always need steel. You don’t need 37 dolls for your daughter. Two or three is nice. But you don’t need 37 dolls. So, we’re doing things right.'"
Comments: Trump had the gall to tell people to give up pencils and dolls. The message trumpeted by this country's preeminent grifter was disingenous. Why is Trump so fixated with pencils and dolls anyway?
"Otherwise, Trump delivered his usual rally speech. Rambling for more than an hour and a half, he attacked immigrants and confirmed that in 2018 he did, in fact, call Haiti and African nations 'sh*thole countries.' He attacked the board of the Federal Reserve and, while boasting of his administration’s strikes on small boats in the Caribbean, said: 'And now we’re going to do land, because the land is much easier.' Anthony Zurcher of the BBC noted that Trump told the crowd his chief of staff, Susie Wiles, had told him to focus on the economy but boasted: 'I haven’t read practically anything off the stupid teleprompter.'"
Comments: Sh**ty comments from a sh**ty president. Donald, JD, and Pete may be tried for war crimes in the Hague after Donald is out of office. This couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of fellows! Doofus Donald was supposed to focus on the economy but he just couldn't help himself as he rambled on and on as if he was making a rally speech. Trump's incompetence and incoherence is truly astounding!
"Concerned about control of Congress after 2026, Trump and members of his administration are pressuring state legislatures to redraw their congressional districts in order to favor Republicans. In Indiana, Republican state senators have resisted their pressure, along with death threats, to pass a map that would give Republicans two districts currently dominated by Democrats, giving Republicans the entire congressional delegation."
Comments: Republican leaders fear their party will lose control of Congress next year (and they will). So they coerce state legislators to cheat by gerrymandering in a feeble attempt to remain in power.
"Vice President J.D. Vance and Don Trump Jr. have jumped into the struggle, and today the lobbying arm of the right-wing Heritage Institute, Heritage Action, posted on social media that “President Trump has made it clear to Indiana leaders: if the Indiana Senate fails to pass the map, all federal funding will be stripped from the state. Roads will not be paved. Guard bases will close. Major projects will stop. These are the stakes and every NO vote will be to blame.” Indiana Lieutenant Governor Micah Beckwith confirmed that “[t]he Trump admin[istration] was VERY clear about this.”
Comments: Do as we say underlings or you will be sued, threatened with physical harm, or otherwise punished severely!
"Political observer John Collins commented: 'Nothing shows confidence like threatening your own party.' Another Hoosier seemed unconcerned with the threat that Trump would illegally withhold federal funding, posting: 'We know how to roll with potholes better than any other state,' with a laughing emoji."
"This evening, the Indiana senate rejected the new gerrymandered congressional map by a vote of 31 to 19. The vote wasn’t close: Twenty-one Republicans—that is, a majority of the Republican senators—joined the 10 Democratic senators in voting no."
Comments: I applaud the Indiana senate for standing up to the Trump administration. I hope that no senators are physically harmed due to Trump's vitriolic rhetoric. Trump should be ashamed of his irresponsible remarks inciting violence but he truly just doesn't care!
I have said before can’t see anyway possible the Republicans retain control of the House in the mid terms. Not only is history against them but I see on X a disenchantment with Trump. Just take a look here in KY with Senator Rand Paul and even more so Representative Thomas Massie. They are boldly speaking out against Trump. And just look at what occurred in red state Indiana with more than half of the state Republican reps voting against redistricting.
As to why Trump got elected you can put any spin you want on it. But it all boils down to one thing - the ineptitude of Biden/Harris. Run Breshear, Whitmer, Moore, or Shirpiro in 2028 and it will be game over for whoever the Republicans run. It may be game over regardless. Even if it is the destroyer Newscum or god forbid AOC. While I am not a fan of AOC I have the utmost respect for her. Unlike Newscum she never wavers in her policies just like her mentor Sanders. And she has a huge following among the younger crowd. She will get voters to the polls for the Dems unlike Harris.
Edit. Trump and the Republicans greatest problem is they are losing support among the Independents. That is what got them elected in 2024.
•What is called the “K-shaped economy,” with stress on lower-income consumers leading to significant cutbacks while the wealthier continue to spend, is a key concern among companies.
•However, even consumers who are dining out are cutting back and prioritizing appetizers in their menu selections.
•Sales of mozzarella sticks, pickle chips and cheese curds to restaurant operators are all up over 30% year over year, according to food service supply chain data company Buyers Edge.
Edit. Trump and the Republicans greatest problem is they are losing support among the Independents. That is what got them elected in 2024.
I agree with all your points, but wish to highlight this one. the maga core will follow trump through the actual gates of hell. But, swing voters and independents win elections. The assault on minorities and women is also not going to help the GOP. Removing free access to national parks on MLK day and Juneteenth, and replacing it with trump's birthday? Minorities and women in America need to open their eyes to all of this.
They are scrubbing the accomplishments of women and minorities from West Point to Arlington National Cemetery.
I have Mexican friends (born here) who worry now every time they see law enforcement. These are legal Americans, who are fearful to go out in public or to their jobs. Masked unidentified para-military are scooping up people who look like them. And not accepting RealID when presented.
i doubt any real world issue has the impact of trump not being on the ballot, that being his main power to carry anyone after a primary. the question is whether trump will be around to run for anything else, although i dont rule out gop voters falling for other scammers. one of them will no doubt say 'let's get back to trad conservatism BS', despite all their MAGA history. its already being tried by nutcase mtg.
a cult is hard to build w/out a decade of free televised faked biz genius. musk running for anything other than potus will be a decades-long threat. and i suspect zuck harbors ambitions beyond fakebook if he can jolt his own competitors.
Feels like a good time to point out that under Biden we had two straight years of +25% S&P growth. Handed the exact same economy, trump has only managed 16% YTD, and that can be directly connected to his flawed economic policy headwinds. he has had the AI trade on his side, and this legacy strength, and squandered it with bad trade policies and massive government intervention in the free markets.
Now the AI trade is faltering and businesses are recognizing this administrations economic follies. So, he commands the FED to lower rates to salvage jobs. But, at nearly 3% inflation, such moves will likely stimulate stagflation.
Next week I may look for opportunities to shed more risk assets.
I see what ICE and DHS are doing to people and I want to rip my teeth out. I'm reminded of the Bruce Cockburn song. "If I had a rocket launcher, some sonofabitch would DIE!"
I am so far beyond indignant.
A clueless, petulant, Orange Child is in charge. And who put him there? Too many voters. Semi-educated voters, with the attention span of a gnat, and even less backbone.
The country is being hollowed-out, politically, institutionally, by these amoral oligarchs. The Orange One is in uncle Vlad's pocket. Deservedly, the rest of the world has turned away from the country which not long ago was the only remaining superpower. But there are things that are more important than money. .... Is he dead yet?
But, at nearly 3% inflation, such moves will likely stimulate stagflation.
So, boys and girls, the word of the day is:
Stagflation is an economic condition marked by slow economic growth (stagnation), high inflation, and rising unemployment, creating a challenging scenario where typical policies to fight inflation can worsen growth, or vice versa.
It's a great week if you don't eat. Shopped today. Paid over $1 for 1 medium sized sweet potato. Paid between $6 & $7 for a 52 oz jug of OJ. Oh, $8-$9 for a pound of cubed round steak (passed). I can afford it. But worry about many who can't. Guess we can steal oil from some of the small Central American countries and hold prices down. Must be harder to hijack a boatload of potatoes, OJ or beef.
If we do get stagflation, the path will be traced directly to trump policies > tariffs causing inflation and job loss + demands that the FED lower rates to accommodate these flawed economic policies that produce slower growth.
maga will try to blame it on everything/anything else. trump will make a plethora of babbling excuses and diversions. Those responsible will take zero accountability.
They are already trying to pretend that ~3% sustained inflation is no big deal.
Remember that US is carrying over $37 trillions of debt. We may past the point of no return with the interest paid to the debt is over $990 billions! The Big Bullshit Bill alone adds another several trillions to the debt. Gotta to love the $2,000 tariffs check to every Americans, and that only adds to more debt.
More recently, more long term treasuries such as 10 and 30 years are reopening for auction. Guess the treasury is not able to find enough buyers for them and that does not bode well for confidence on the creditworthiness of the greenback.
Precious metals and their mining stocks have done extremely well this year. You have to ask yourself why ?
Comments
•While large retailers have mostly been able to brush off President Donald Trump’s tariffs, many small businesses have been crushed by them.
•The U.S. has 36 million small businesses.
•About 61 million Americans, or nearly half of the country’s private sector employees work for small businesses.
Putin shows just how much he cares what trump wants.
trump continues to kowtow.
Who recalls when trump told the world that he "believes Putin" more than his/our own intelligence service?
•Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia would take Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region “by force” if its troops do not leave.
•Fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists started long before Russia’s full-scale invasion of 2022.
•Analysts say the war is unlikely to end any time soon, with Ukraine unwilling to give into pressure to concede land to Moscow.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/11/indiana-trump-republicans-redistricting-congress.html
•The Indiana Senate voted 19-31 against a bill to redraw the state’s congressional districts to favor Republicans.
•The defeat of the bill was a major blow to President Donald Trump, who has pushed for redistricting nationwide to favor the GOP in the 2026 congressional midterm elections.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/11/case-for-more-fed-rate-cuts-could-rest-on-systemic-overcount-of-jobs.html
Apparently, jobs are worse than previously thought!
•At his Wednesday news conference, Chair Jerome Powell mentioned several times that there likely has been negative job growth in recent months, a condition that would argue for easier monetary policy.
•Balancing support for the labor market and quieting inflation will be central to policymaking as the Fed heads into 2026.
They will let inflation take a back seat to jobs, so expect another leg up. This will occur at the same time companies are continuing to raise prices.
Just how transparently bad does a case have to be for a grand jury to not even let it proceed to an actual trial? The answer: "trump bad".
Apparently, everyone is now fully aware that trump is running purely political prosecutions, with zero substance. And giving him the middle finger.
A truly great week!
of the economy would enable him to bring down the prices that had risen in the
global inflation spike after the Covid-19 pandemic shut down the world economy."
"Within weeks of the election, Trump began to back off on that promise,
telling a reporter for Time magazine in December 2024 that 'it’s very hard' to bring down prices.
Then in April he launched a tariff war that began to raise prices, while his on-again,
off-again tariff rates discouraged businesses from investing while they waited to see
what made economic sense."
"Americans are not impressed with Trump’s handling of the economy.
A poll by AP/NORC, which stands for Associated Press/National Opinion Research Center
at the University of Chicago—a very reputable polling collaboration—released today shows
that only 31% of American adults approve of Trump’s management of the economy,
with 67% disapproving.
Among Independents, that number breaks down to 15% approving and 80% disapproving."
Comments: The vast majority of American adults disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy.
Other recent polls have shown similar results.
"Trump defended the tariffs that have raised prices by suggesting that the tariffs are protecting
major items and that if people are feeling the pinch of higher prices, they 'can give up certain products.
You could give up pencils. That’s under the China policy, you know, every child can get 37 pencils.
They only need one or two, you know, they don’t need that many. But you always need,
you always need steel. You don’t need 37 dolls for your daughter. Two or three is nice.
But you don’t need 37 dolls. So, we’re doing things right.'"
Comments: Trump had the gall to tell people to give up pencils and dolls.
The message trumpeted by this country's preeminent grifter was disingenous.
Why is Trump so fixated with pencils and dolls anyway?
"Otherwise, Trump delivered his usual rally speech. Rambling for more than an hour and a half,
he attacked immigrants and confirmed that in 2018 he did, in fact, call Haiti and African nations
'sh*thole countries.' He attacked the board of the Federal Reserve and, while boasting of
his administration’s strikes on small boats in the Caribbean, said: 'And now we’re going to do land,
because the land is much easier.' Anthony Zurcher of the BBC noted that Trump told the crowd
his chief of staff, Susie Wiles, had told him to focus on the economy but boasted:
'I haven’t read practically anything off the stupid teleprompter.'"
Comments: Sh**ty comments from a sh**ty president. Donald, JD, and Pete may be tried for war crimes
in the Hague after Donald is out of office. This couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of fellows!
Doofus Donald was supposed to focus on the economy but he just couldn't help himself
as he rambled on and on as if he was making a rally speech.
Trump's incompetence and incoherence is truly astounding!
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/12/terrausd-creator-do-kwon-sentenced-to-15-years-over-40-billion-crypto-collapse.html
are pressuring state legislatures to redraw their congressional districts in order to favor Republicans.
In Indiana, Republican state senators have resisted their pressure, along with death threats,
to pass a map that would give Republicans two districts currently dominated by Democrats,
giving Republicans the entire congressional delegation."
Comments: Republican leaders fear their party will lose control of Congress next year (and they will).
So they coerce state legislators to cheat by gerrymandering in a feeble attempt to remain in power.
"Vice President J.D. Vance and Don Trump Jr. have jumped into the struggle,
and today the lobbying arm of the right-wing Heritage Institute, Heritage Action,
posted on social media that “President Trump has made it clear to Indiana leaders:
if the Indiana Senate fails to pass the map, all federal funding will be stripped from the state.
Roads will not be paved. Guard bases will close. Major projects will stop. These are the stakes
and every NO vote will be to blame.” Indiana Lieutenant Governor Micah Beckwith confirmed
that “[t]he Trump admin[istration] was VERY clear about this.”
Comments: Do as we say underlings or you will be sued, threatened with physical harm,
or otherwise punished severely!
"Political observer John Collins commented: 'Nothing shows confidence like threatening your own party.' Another Hoosier seemed unconcerned with the threat that Trump would illegally withhold federal funding, posting: 'We know how to roll with potholes better than any other state,' with a laughing emoji."
"This evening, the Indiana senate rejected the new gerrymandered congressional map
by a vote of 31 to 19. The vote wasn’t close: Twenty-one Republicans—that is,
a majority of the Republican senators—joined the 10 Democratic senators in voting no."
Comments: I applaud the Indiana senate for standing up to the Trump administration.
I hope that no senators are physically harmed due to Trump's vitriolic rhetoric.
Trump should be ashamed of his irresponsible remarks inciting violence but he truly just doesn't care!
As to why Trump got elected you can put any spin you want on it. But it all boils down to one thing - the ineptitude of Biden/Harris. Run Breshear, Whitmer, Moore, or Shirpiro in 2028 and it will be game over for whoever the Republicans run. It may be game over regardless. Even if it is the destroyer Newscum or god forbid AOC. While I am not a fan of AOC I have the utmost respect for her. Unlike Newscum she never wavers in her policies just like her mentor Sanders. And she has a huge following among the younger crowd. She will get voters to the polls for the Dems unlike Harris.
Edit. Trump and the Republicans greatest problem is they are losing support among the Independents. That is what got them elected in 2024.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/12/food-inflation-affordability-economy-consumer-spending.html
•What is called the “K-shaped economy,” with stress on lower-income consumers leading to significant cutbacks while the wealthier continue to spend, is a key concern among companies.
•However, even consumers who are dining out are cutting back and prioritizing appetizers in their menu selections.
•Sales of mozzarella sticks, pickle chips and cheese curds to restaurant operators are all up over 30% year over year, according to food service supply chain data company Buyers Edge.
They are scrubbing the accomplishments of women and minorities from West Point to Arlington National Cemetery.
I have Mexican friends (born here) who worry now every time they see law enforcement. These are legal Americans, who are fearful to go out in public or to their jobs. Masked unidentified para-military are scooping up people who look like them. And not accepting RealID when presented.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/05/us/west-point-clubs-women-minorities.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz03gjnxe25o
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/travel/trump-birthday-mlk-juneteenth-free-national-park.html
i doubt any real world issue has the impact of trump not being on the ballot, that being his main power to carry anyone after a primary.
the question is whether trump will be around to run for anything else, although i dont rule out gop voters falling for other scammers. one of them will no doubt say 'let's get back to trad conservatism BS', despite all their MAGA history. its already being tried by nutcase mtg.
a cult is hard to build w/out a decade of free televised faked biz genius. musk running for anything other than potus will be a decades-long threat. and i suspect zuck harbors ambitions beyond fakebook if he can jolt his own competitors.
Too late! Rat fleeing down the rat line of a burning ship.
Now the AI trade is faltering and businesses are recognizing this administrations economic follies. So, he commands the FED to lower rates to salvage jobs. But, at nearly 3% inflation, such moves will likely stimulate stagflation.
Next week I may look for opportunities to shed more risk assets.
I am so far beyond indignant.
A clueless, petulant, Orange Child is in charge. And who put him there? Too many voters. Semi-educated voters, with the attention span of a gnat, and even less backbone.
The country is being hollowed-out, politically, institutionally, by these amoral oligarchs. The Orange One is in uncle Vlad's pocket. Deservedly, the rest of the world has turned away from the country which not long ago was the only remaining superpower. But there are things that are more important than money. .... Is he dead yet?
Despicable fecal clown show:
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5646447-trump-boasberg-deportation-feud/
Stagflation is an economic condition marked by slow economic growth (stagnation), high inflation, and rising unemployment, creating a challenging scenario where typical policies to fight inflation can worsen growth, or vice versa.
THANKS, DONNIE!!!!!
maga will try to blame it on everything/anything else. trump will make a plethora of babbling excuses and diversions. Those responsible will take zero accountability.
They are already trying to pretend that ~3% sustained inflation is no big deal.
More recently, more long term treasuries such as 10 and 30 years are reopening for auction. Guess the treasury is not able to find enough buyers for them and that does not bode well for confidence on the creditworthiness of the greenback.
Precious metals and their mining stocks have done extremely well this year. You have to ask yourself why ?