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Don Glickstein wrote a good article regarding a simple approach to chaos-resistant investing in this month's Mutual Fund Observer. Welcome aboard, Don!
Some observations after going through MFO, June 1, 2025.
@David_Snowball: My TIAA 403b does include some non-TIAA funds, but the only Pimco fund available is PIMIX. When my plan changed about 4 years ago, some options were frozen - so, I could keep CREF Social Choice / QCSCIX, sell it, but cannot get back in. For now, I am sticking with it. Will keep an eye on Pimco multi-asset PIRMX (REITs, precious-metals, commodities and lots of TIPS).
@lynnbolin2021: A few years ago, I moved from Wellesley VWINX / VWIAX and VGWIX / VGYAX to Wellington VWELX / VWENX and VGWLX / VGWAX. I used ST- or ultra-ST- bond fund to make appropriate allocation adjustments. Maybe, with higher interest rates, it's time to take another look at Wellesley.
@dong or @Don_Glickstein (guessing MFO handle): Great launch article. But one caution about Upside/Downside Capture Ratio (U/D CR). U/D CR works best when at least 1 bull and 1 bear cycles are included in the period. Similarly, Upside CR should have at least 1 bull cycle, and Downside CR should have at least 1 bear cycle. Otherwise, the values can mislead. Since-inception does catch various market cycles. But 18 months isn't sufficient for definitive conclusions. IMO, the period considered should include at least 2022 (so, 3 yrs), maybe even 2020 (5 yrs). Note that CBLDX has existed since 01/2018-, but CBLVX only since 10/2024- . Anyway, those are minor details. I thoroughly enjoyed your piece.
Glickstein is fun to read. And sounds prudent and wise. I note this from Dr. Snowball: Collectively, the government and the industry have embraced a vision of the market as a casino, and of speculation as investing. We walk through the risks with you.
The gummint is not your friend, advocate and protector. Not anymore, not until some sanity is restored.
Good point @Crash. When the worth of ones presidency is valued by how high the stock market rises I become very dubious about sticking more of my dollars in same.
Good point @Crash. When the worth of ones presidency is valued by how high the stock market rises I become very dubious about sticking more of my dollars in same.
Yes, and even more so, because reckless decisions from on high make investing a minefield. I'd not want to be a newbie just now. So easy to get helplessly skinned alive.
We tend to prepare for the worst, but the market has proven that all the current regime has to do is utter some phrase about China negotiations proceeding, or really anything that might be construed as positive....and up we go.
I mean, how easy is that? Substance need not enter the equation.
But, @Crash et al; a 'newbie' with some guidance from another, to invest in a broad-based index, as with SP-500, etc. has the benefit of time and compounding. Newbie in this write is directed to those who have not yet attained a halfway point in their working career. Those older, may have a different vision for investing. Every day there are those who become enrolled in a company 401k/403b, etc. The vast majority have little understanding about investments, but the younger ones have time to learn. And for all of us, we are fully within an investment period without precedent, eh? No guidelines from a previous and/or similar event period. IMHO. Remain curious, Catch
Some people let politics influence their investing decisions. For years, I’ve said the same thing: ignore the noise and stay focused on the market.
But when the Chief Executive is a childish, oblivious, reckless, crazy-ass saboteur? Ignore him at the risk of instantly losing everything. We are in a political moment withoutprecedent, as Catch just stated. If any of this unhinged nonsense had ever been seen before, that would be rather different.
At Crash. Well stated. And it’s only getting worse by the minute. Soon there will be no reliable data . No laws and no whistleblowers. We are living through the end of America as we knew it. Invest at your own peril.
At Crash. Well stated. And it’s only getting worse by the minute. Soon there will be no reliable data . No laws and no whistleblowers. We are living through the end of America as we knew it. Invest at your own peril.
THAT'S a rather huge truth-bomb! And yet... "What's a mother to do?" I'm doing my best simply to NOT make big changes. And my cash stash is bigger than it's ever been. 8.6% of total. Holding more foreign equities, too, though still not much in relation to the total portfolio. Inertia? Or stupidity?
Some observations after going through MFO, June 1, 2025.
@lynnbolin2021: A few years ago, I moved from Wellesley VWINX / VWIAX and VGWIX / VGYAX to Wellington VWELX / VWENX and VGWLX / VGWAX. I used ST- or ultra-ST- bond fund to make appropriate allocation adjustments. Maybe, with higher interest rates, it's time to take another look at Wellesley.
@yogibearbull: You may be interested in the following articles. I have reduced my stock to bond allocation from 67% to 50% over the past nine months or so. Last month, I reduced risk by trading equity funds for the Vanguard Global Wellesley and helped family and friends do the same.
@lynnbolin. I have been watching Global Wellesley but have not pulled the trigger because of the almost six year duration of the substantial bond portfolio. With all the uncertainty surrounding the bond market that seems an issue. Your thoughts?
@lynnbolin. I have been watching Global Wellesley but have not pulled the trigger because of the almost six year duration of the substantial bond portfolio. With all the uncertainty surrounding the bond market that seems an issue. Your thoughts?
@larryB. In general, estimates of inflation from the Federal Reserve and OECD are that inflation will be above 3% this year and falling slightly next year, while The Conference Board has lower inflation this year and rising next year. Duration risk is a legitimate concern, but it matches the benchmark of 6 years. Secondly, Global Wellesley keeps about 52% invested in corporate bonds which may add a little risk compared to the category. The budget proposal adds to the national debt which is a risk for longer-term US rates. Most of the fixed income that I manage for the intermediate term is in short-term bonds including investment grade.
What I like about Global Wellesley is that only 39% is invested in the US with much of the rest in Europe. 14.4% of the credit is invested in the US government. I bought Global Wellesley for its conservative global exposure.
Comments
https://www.donglickstein.com/about-me/
@David_Snowball: My TIAA 403b does include some non-TIAA funds, but the only Pimco fund available is PIMIX. When my plan changed about 4 years ago, some options were frozen - so, I could keep CREF Social Choice / QCSCIX, sell it, but cannot get back in. For now, I am sticking with it. Will keep an eye on Pimco multi-asset PIRMX (REITs, precious-metals, commodities and lots of TIPS).
@lynnbolin2021: A few years ago, I moved from Wellesley VWINX / VWIAX and VGWIX / VGYAX to Wellington VWELX / VWENX and VGWLX / VGWAX. I used ST- or ultra-ST- bond fund to make appropriate allocation adjustments. Maybe, with higher interest rates, it's time to take another look at Wellesley.
@dong or @Don_Glickstein (guessing MFO handle): Great launch article. But one caution about Upside/Downside Capture Ratio (U/D CR).
U/D CR works best when at least 1 bull and 1 bear cycles are included in the period. Similarly, Upside CR should have at least 1 bull cycle, and Downside CR should have at least 1 bear cycle. Otherwise, the values can mislead.
Since-inception does catch various market cycles. But 18 months isn't sufficient for definitive conclusions. IMO, the period considered should include at least 2022 (so, 3 yrs), maybe even 2020 (5 yrs). Note that CBLDX has existed since 01/2018-, but CBLVX only since 10/2024- .
Anyway, those are minor details. I thoroughly enjoyed your piece.
Have to agree that PRBLX lost its way. It used to be a steady low volatility fund. Sad to see Amazon in the top five holdings.
1 year...VOO 13.7%....PRBLX 12.6%
3 year...VOO 48.7%....PRBLX 43.6%
5 year...VOO 119%....PRBLX 109%
Simpler: 5-year average annual performance... VOO 15.9%...PRBLX 14.9%.
Why did PRBLX lose its way?
I don't see it yet. When the SP500 is strong as per the last 5 years, it's harder to beat it.
I don't question my managers' selections; either you trust them or not.
Collectively, the government and the industry have embraced a vision of the market as a casino, and of speculation as investing. We walk through the risks with you.
The gummint is not your friend, advocate and protector. Not anymore, not until some sanity is restored.
I mean, how easy is that? Substance need not enter the equation.
Every day there are those who become enrolled in a company 401k/403b, etc. The vast majority have little understanding about investments, but the younger ones have time to learn.
And for all of us, we are fully within an investment period without precedent, eh? No guidelines from a previous and/or similar event period.
IMHO.
Remain curious,
Catch
For years, I’ve said the same thing: ignore the noise and stay focused on the market.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consider-flipping-your-60-40-portfolio-to-40-60-as-bonds-become-more-attractive-than-stocks-2f0ce96b
https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/bonds-remain-favor-time-varying-model-portfolio.html
What I like about Global Wellesley is that only 39% is invested in the US with much of the rest in Europe. 14.4% of the credit is invested in the US government. I bought Global Wellesley for its conservative global exposure.
Here are some associated articles:
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vgyax/quote
https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vgyax#portfolio-composition
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-1_83363382-en.html?adestraproject=Economics Department News&utm_campaign=EO-June2025&utm_content=june-eo-chart&utm_term=eco&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Adestra