Bitcoin ETF's. Thoughts?

PopTart

I have no bitcoin/crypto experience at all except for knowing that it has been incredibly volatile and speculative throughout its history. Yet I'm intrigued by the following article about upcoming momentum fueled by government support for bitcoin as an asset class. The only investment vehicles I'm aware of for bitcoin are the etf's GBTC and IBIT as well as other etf's listed in the article below. Trump seems to want to make the USA the bitcoin capital of the world. If he keeps his word (a big if) then might bitcoin become an asset class and therefore even more investable? Elon Musk holds a large amount of bitcoin.

I welcome thoughts and opinions about bitcoin. Thanks in advance for any and all comments!



Goldman Sachs Expands Bitcoin ETF Holdings To $710 Million
BENZINGA
Nov-15-2024 10:11 a.m. ET
Goldman Sachs (GS) has dramatically increased its exposure to Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ETFs, according to its latest 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), reflecting growing institutional interest in digital assets.

What Happened: The Wall Street powerhouse disclosed $710 million invested across multiple Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for the quarter ending September 30. A 13F filing is a quarterly report required by the SEC for institutional investors managing over $100 million in assets.

Major Holdings in BlackRock's Bitcoin Trust
The filing highlights Goldman Sachs’ significant stake in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust , with 12.7 million shares valued at $461 million.
This marks an 83% increase from its August holdings of 6.9 million shares, then valued at $281 million, and solidifies Goldman's position as the second-largest holder of IBIT, trailing only Millennium Management, which leads with $844 million in holdings.

Diversifying Bitcoin ETF Investments
Goldman also boosted its positions in other prominent Bitcoin ETFs. Notable increases include:
Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin ETF : 1.7 million shares worth $95.5 million, a 13% rise.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTC:GBTC): 1.4 million shares valued at $71.8 million, a 116% increase.
Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) : 650,961 shares worth $22.5 million, marking a 156% rise.
The bank also reported smaller stakes in Bitcoin ETFs offered by Invesco Galaxy, WisdomTree and ARK 21Shares.

Institutional Confidence In A Booming Market
Goldman's expanded investments coincide with record inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock's IBIT recently surpassed the iShares Gold ETF (IAU) in net assets, an impressive milestone considering IBIT's launch occurred just this January.
The rising momentum aligns with broader market optimism for a pro-crypto regulatory environment under the incoming Trump administration, which has pledged support for crypto mining and a national Bitcoin reserve.
Goldman's aggressive moves into Bitcoin ETFs underscore the shifting landscape for digital assets, signaling increasing institutional adoption of cryptocurrency as a mainstream asset class.

Edmond

I have a healthy profit in FBTC, in the past 3 weeks. I trimmed positions earlier this week.

IMO, bitcoin is not an 'investment'. Its a risk-on trading vehicle. There is no way I would hold this stuff if/when the markets turn risk-off.

Other BTC etfs which generate income are BITO and MAXI. (not a recommendation, simply an FYI)

hank

Yes. I think I own some Bitcoin through an etf “fund-of-etfs” (TRTY). It holds a couple momentum / trend following etfs - but those are a small part of its 16-17 etf stable. Best guess is bitcoin probably represents something like 0.05% of my portfolio. I’m “comfy” with that degree of exposure. I think a lot of markets have gone hyperbolic - and probably bitcoin among them. But I agree with Alan Greenspan who famously said it’s impossible to identify a bubble until after it has popped.

Nothing against Bitcoin. Some pretty smart people own it. Not a big fan of Goldman. So I don’t put much stock in any calls they might make.

majick

How's Bito ? Any opinions on it? Thanks.

PopTart

Thanks for the comments!

Crash

Well.
Bitcoin and all cryptocurriencies are by definition subversive, unpatriotic. Undercutting the value of real, actual LEGAL TENDER. ---Charlie Munger. (R.I.P.)

Where's the value? The product? The service provided? ---Warren Buffett.

Edmond

Fiat currency and constant debasement is subversive and unpatriotic. When the organs of the state --- including the central bank operate with the explicit intent of constant erosion of legal tender, that is the reason BIT exists.

If the state operated in a manner to ensure sound money, there would be no demand for crypto. We don't live in that world.

Crash

Ostensibly, gov't central banks exist to maintain stability of the currency. Yes, central banks do prefer a bit of inflation, so that national debt can be repaid in "smaller" dollars or pounds sterling or whatever. And decision makers don't always get it right. That doesn't mean that we should forget about standards altogether.

Observant1

I don't see a real need for bitcoin/cryptocurrency in most developed nations.
Cryptocurrency is often used to obfuscate criminal activity or for speculation.
If an "investor" wishes to speculate, they are free to do so but other speculative "investments" are available.
Conversely, citizens of countries which have a history of hyperinflation (e.g., Argentina, Sudan, Zimbabawe) could really benefit from cryptocurrency usage.

hank

Crash said:

Ostensibly, gov't central banks exist to maintain stability of the currency. Yes, central banks do prefer a bit of inflation, so that national debt can be repaid in "smaller" dollars or pounds sterling or whatever. And decision makers don't always get it right. That doesn't mean that we should forget about standards altogether.

I’ve never heard a home owner complain about when their home appreciates in nominal value. I suppose if it leads to higher property taxes, one might. But generally speaking we like it when the things we own go up in dollar value. And if you carry a mortgage on your home, your situation is a bit like that of the U.S. Treasury. Inflation allows you to repay your loan (ie pay for your home) in cheaper dollars. The issue isn’t all black, white or green which perhaps is what @Crash was inferring.

Derf

I was going to start a new thread , but found this one & will add this link.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-sell-70s-era-gold-212657357.html

Good idea or not !?

All replies appreciated.

Crash

What might she have to gain? Repugnant Party...

BenWP

A friend of mine tried to explain to me what bitcoin is, something along the lines of, « it’s just a currency. » He then told me he had made enough on his investment to buy his daughter a house. Then he said he hadn’t owned any bitcoin for some time. I guess he profited handsomely, making me envious, but unconvinced.

I don’t understand all the science behind the tech companies my funds own, nor the medical advances that have led to investing profits for me, but I have faith that the science is sound and understandable to a reasonably intelligent person. I do not have the same faith in bitcoin nor in my intelligence to grasp why it’s a good investment. I side with those old timers and skeptics who have been persistent naysayers.

Old_Joe

"I do not have [it] in my intelligence to grasp why it’s a good investment."

I think that requires artificial intelligence.

PRESSmUP

Tulip coins

Crash

ya, hey?

BenWP

@Old_Joe: good one! We’ll see if my tilt away from chips (SMHX) toward software (IVG) produces real or artificial gains. In the old days you could blame a real person (a broker) for suggesting a crappy stock; nowadays I can blame AI for my missteps. An artificial alibi seems to sneak more easily by my conscience than an honest appraisal of my follies.

Old_Joe

@BenWP- Hell, for my whole life those who know me well have told me that my intelligence, if any, is artificial. My father used to say that if I had a brain I'd be dangerous.

PopTart

Thanks again for the many comments, this board remains an excellent source of knowledge and opinions. I've yet to make up my mind about buying a few shares of IBIT but I'll continue to watch it for awhile.

Happy Thanksgiving!

sma3

There is an argument that anything that the government cannot produce more of effortlessly, even Tulips, is better than Fiat currencies.

This presupposes you can get someone else to accept it as "money" and it is safe, not easily stolen and it will hold it's value.

A friend's son had some thousand (s?) of Bitcoin on a fob in his safe deposit box, years ago.

He may be a billionaire now, but I don't have enough knowledge of the technology to have any confidence I could liquidate it. He my.

ETFs are easier to understand, but I do not see how to have any confidence that the value will be stable enough to manage. Gold fluctuates but lot's of Central Banks own lots of it and the value has been plotted for centuries

BaluBalu

@yogibearbull,

Only if you know the answer off hand -

Are the Bitcoin ETP redemptions still only via cash? Just checking if the lack of in-kind redemptions changed since inception?

How do the year end distributions from ETPs look like?

I did not see any distribution projections (or actuals) for FBTC or IBIT or ETHA

https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/literature/item/9900927.html

https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/shareholder-letters/isharesandblackrocketfsdistributionschedule.pdf

Thanks.

sma3

If all IBIT has to do for redemptions is sell shares to market maker who then sells bitcoin, I dont think there would ever be any distributions.

havent checked but has GLD ever had distribution?

BaluBalu

I do not know how GLD is structured but it never had any cap gain distributions.

It is a question of whether in-kind redemptions are allowed by the SEC. The original permission to create the bitcoin ETPs did not allow. Let us wait for YBB to reply as he likely follows the SEC developments in this space. I own these but I do not follow.

yogibearbull

The SEC hasn't changed the cash creation/redemption for Bitcoin and Ether ETPs. So, these ETPs aren't as tax-efficient as other ETPs or ETFs. They are still in their first year and I haven't been checking their sponsor's plans for yearend distributions.

As there have been mostly inflows so far, the issue may be moot now.

BaluBalu

Thanks

BaluBalu

Fart coin is now worth more than 38% of all US public equities. I think it debuted in late October and has grown more than a 1,000% in market price since. Trading volume nearly 100M. Market Cap is only $600M.

yogibearbull

Hawk (Tuah) token debuted last week. It rose spectacularly and crashed on the same day. Now people are talking about suing the clueless 22-yr old country girl Haliey Welch (Hawk Tuah girl) from Tennessee. I also don't believe those people who say they lost their life savings in this scam.

BaluBalu

What is their claim? That she misrepresented its fundamentals?

rforno

Anyone playing cryptocurrency outside of the big ones that seem to be 'respectable' (eg, BTC, ETH) truly is throwing their money away unless it's for a quick in-out trade akin to a pump-and-dump scheme.

davidrmoran

I accidentally snorted out whisky at reading half of these ... I was only trying to find the quote that no one has yet devised, concocted, imagined, or plausibly advocated a use case

https://www.cryptoaltruism.org/blog/15-quotes-about-the-potential-of-blockchain-and-crypto

efficiency! math!

andreesen sounds like he is talking about full-faith / -credit currency

BaluBalu

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-13/australian-pension-fund-reveals-rare-wager-on-bitcoin-btc-futures