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Below are my thoughts with the disclaimer that I ain't no geopolitical expert (but I am a voracious reader)
Energy demand in the USA will skyrocket over the coming years due to themes of AI/data centers/EV/energy independence. EV might look like odd man here but all those EV's getting charged in garages still need a lot of energy...a significant portion of which is still coming from fossil fuels.
Zooming out though, the big demand driver is energy independence. I agree with most of Peter Zeihan's analysis on this topic -- while the US (waaaay) over extended itself in blood and treasury over Afghanistan and Iran, the grip on the GOP of the big defense spending Republicans is waning (of which Dick Cheney was a key leader) and what is emerging gradually (over both Democratic and Republican admins) is a US that is withdrawing from it's role of global cop. I'll stop here because I don't want to veer too far off into the weeds of geopolitics. Short story is that I expect US energy demand (and drilling) to increase as a natural side effect of US wanting to rely less on Middle East. Canada and Mexico might still do fine but I fully expect Trump to extract concessions for being a continued buyer of energy from our neighbors.
Obviously I (and all the experts I follow) could be all wrong but the general theme amongst several PE folks I follow is that energy is a long term play atm.
Also important clarification: While I do believe "drill baby drill" will be a theme, the broader theme I am looking to capitalize on is global energy demand increasing (not just fossil fuel). So that includes green, transmission, battery, transport, storage, etc.. There's several PE pitches out there but to the extent possible I'm looking to invest in a public instrument.
Comments
Below are my thoughts with the disclaimer that I ain't no geopolitical expert (but I am a voracious reader)
Energy demand in the USA will skyrocket over the coming years due to themes of AI/data centers/EV/energy independence. EV might look like odd man here but all those EV's getting charged in garages still need a lot of energy...a significant portion of which is still coming from fossil fuels.
Zooming out though, the big demand driver is energy independence. I agree with most of Peter Zeihan's analysis on this topic -- while the US (waaaay) over extended itself in blood and treasury over Afghanistan and Iran, the grip on the GOP of the big defense spending Republicans is waning (of which Dick Cheney was a key leader) and what is emerging gradually (over both Democratic and Republican admins) is a US that is withdrawing from it's role of global cop. I'll stop here because I don't want to veer too far off into the weeds of geopolitics. Short story is that I expect US energy demand (and drilling) to increase as a natural side effect of US wanting to rely less on Middle East. Canada and Mexico might still do fine but I fully expect Trump to extract concessions for being a continued buyer of energy from our neighbors.
Obviously I (and all the experts I follow) could be all wrong but the general theme amongst several PE folks I follow is that energy is a long term play atm.
Also important clarification: While I do believe "drill baby drill" will be a theme, the broader theme I am looking to capitalize on is global energy demand increasing (not just fossil fuel). So that includes green, transmission, battery, transport, storage, etc.. There's several PE pitches out there but to the extent possible I'm looking to invest in a public instrument.