Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
First, it's 3 years, not 2 years. Second, looks to me they started in 2019, not showing the peak of 2020. If you look at this chart(https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q) Trump started in Q1/2017 and by Q2/2020, real wages after inflation grew up from 355 to 393. That is 10.7% real growth. Then covid hit, and since Q2/2020, it went from 393 back to 368, this is a decline of 6.4%,
2 more observations: 1) From Q4/1099 to Q1/2017 = 18 years, it grew from 335 to 355 = 5.9% 2) Since 1980, no other president except Trump has achieved above 10% real wage growth.
Covid hit during Trump's administration. That's the hand he was dealt. The economy he inherited was strong and growing. That's also part of the hand he was delt. You don't get to cherry pick dates any more than you do when looking at investment performance.
But for fun, let's go with it. We'll use March 2020 as the month that COVID struck. That's when WHO declared it a pandemic. That's the month when number of workers employed started to drop; they fell through the floor in April. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1taIE
Since we're agreed that Covid distorts things, we'll count the numbers only up to Covid, i.e. through Feb 2020. The original FRED graph (median real employment wages) doesn't have that sort of granularity. So instead, here's a graph of nominal wages. (With inflation so low, Y/Y dropping to nearly 0 in April 2020, nominal or real is no big diff.) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1taJw
Sure enough, there's that spike that accounts for the outsized increase in wages. But take a closer look. As we zoom in, we see that the jump occurred in April 2020, i.e. as a result of Covid. Average wages spiked (perhaps as businesses shut down lower paid workers were disproportionately unemployed?), then declined and within 2-3 months resumed the same upward trend they had been on all along.
Just as we're not giving the blame to Trump for the precipitous drop in employment in April 2020, we don't give the credit to Trump for the spike in wages that same month.
Quite frankly, while the overall government's policy may affect the financial condition of the country, this notion that the President in office is responsible for everything that happens is a real stretch. As someone who appreciates logic, it's appalling to me to see its absence in the 'thoughts' of so many around me!
No need to be extreme. The pres in office can have a big affect on many things.
Obamacare had a huge affect long-term. IMO, it was one of the worst legislation. I priced what healthcare would cost me and my wife prior to Medicare. Before Obamacare it was $400 monthly with a $3K deductible. After Obamacare it was $1200-1300 monthly with a $5-6K deductible. That was years ago. I know several people who pay now about $1000 per person and 7-9K deductible.
(link) On the first week of Biden's presidency, "Biden’s orders direct the secretary of the Interior Department to halt new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters, and begin a thorough review of existing permits for fossil fuel development. Do you think the above has nothing to do why oil started to go up? Oil is a huge resource in our economy, don't you think it increased inflation?
After the embarrassing exit from Afghanistan, Putin realized that Biden is a weak pres and why he invaded Ukraine. He also did on Obama watch but not during Trump. How much money does the US allocate to Ukraine? easy over $100 billion.
Why did 4 Arab countries sign a peace agreement with Israel during Trump, which is the first time ever, while the Middle East is on fire now?
When Harris said she wants price control, don't you think it would affect us in a big way?
So yes, several presidents are more influential than others.
@Mona- it's usually a good indicator of the value of someone's opinions when they don't know the difference between "effect" and "affect", and can't write a paragraph in reasonably coherent standard English. FD certainly shares those characteristics with his preferred candidate for the presidency. But then, both of them like to remind us that THEY ARE PERFECT !!!
Wow, there's lots to unpack in your commentary! I'll just comment on two topics.
"Obamacare had a huge affect long-term."
You're correct that "Obamacare" had huge long-term effects: 1) More than 16 million Americans obtained coverage within five years' passage of Obamacare. 2) People with preexisting conditions can't he denied health insurance. 3) Prescription drug costs are more affordable for many Medicare participants. 4) More screenings and preventative services are covered with low copays or deductibles. 5) Insurance companies can no longer set lifetime limits for coverage.
"After the embarrassing exit from Afghanistan, Putin realized that Biden is a weak pres and why he invaded Ukraine."
Both Trump & Biden were eager to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan. Trump struck a deal for withdrawal by May 1, 2021. Biden inherited this deal but delayed the withdrawal date. The withdrawal was problematic, to say the least, but to blame this entirely on Biden is disingenuous. https://www.factcheck.org/2021/08/timeline-of-u-s-withdrawal-from-afghanistan/
Edit/Add: "On the first week of Biden's presidency, "Biden’s orders direct the secretary of the Interior Department to halt new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters, and begin a thorough review of existing permits for fossil fuel development. Do you think the above has nothing to do why oil started to go up? Oil is a huge resource in our economy, don't you think it increased inflation?"
@Observant1- Your dependence on "facts" is unfortunate, as facts are not recognized or appreciated by certain individuals. Generally, those individuals deal primarily in "alternate facts", which frequently present themselves as a subcategory of "lies".
Putin invaded Ukraine because he saw Biden as a "weak" Prez. Sure. And then, even granting that wild accusation, the administration proved Pootie wrong as wrong could be ... although FD's party tried to hand Ukraine over to Putin by refusing for months to authorize funding for Ukraine's defense.
@Observant1: good catch on that Afghanistan fact check.
Since we're making notes, let's also note that this post was not remotely Off-Topic until FD1000 chose to take it there. And also for the record, it's posters like FD1000 and Baseball_Fan who are the most frequent offenders in introducing overtly political commentary into otherwise non-political discussions.
When this happens, other posters immediately suggest moving a thread to the OT section. This effectively gives the frequent offenders the power to cause entire threads to be "banished" to OT Land because of their deliberate violation of the customary ground rules.
Hey Old Joe, leave me out of this...I have no interest any longer posting/debating about politics on this site...it's not a good use of my time, ya'll know I disagree with most folks politics on this site and vice versa so what's the point? Let's all vote and see what happens.
I'm wondering what folks make of NVDA's earning call and super micro being looked at sideways...any chicanery going on there? I've sold over 1/2 my holdings in TSUMX due to the sudden mgr change...looking hard at BRK.B, WMT, IAU and maybe TWEIX...
I know what is going on in this forum and in this thread. I did not read FD's posts in this thread but reading the very short Mona reply gave me the hint the direction the thread is taking.
I read all your posts. I do not read more than 50% of FD's posts. I have to prioritize my time. Because I read all your and some other posters' posts, I had to leave a note to myself that the thread is off-topic to me. Does not mean it is off-topic to you guys. You guys should feel free to continue. I was not trying to lecture or offend anyone.
@BaluBalu- You must have a very low bar if you read all of my posts! Anyway, thanks for your clarification on all of this... I understand where you're coming from.
@Mona- it's usually a good indicator of the value of someone's opinions when they don't know the difference between "effect" and "affect", and can't write a paragraph in reasonably coherent standard English.
I once said something like that too, but was told later by another poster FD immigrated here and learned English as a second language. (And it can be hard enough for those of us who learned it as a first language.)
Haven’t had time to read the whole thread. Looks nuts. Sure to be a good read!
They were just another vendor advertising in The Computer Weekly in the Bay Area before the internet. Always wondered why people got so excited about them lately.
At least they're blowing up in the S&P 500 and not in XMHQ.
BB I have to prioritize my time FD if this is true you wouldn't post so much.
Write non-repetitive and non-political posts and I will read 100% of your posts too. Also, strive for brevity if you want others to read all your posts. You are so focused on yourself, you are not able to distinguish a friend from a foe. Just ask your once friends Chang and Norbert.
While at it go read about James Carville and Mary Matalin.
They were just another vendor advertising in The Computer Weekly in the Bay Area before the internet. Always wondered why people got so excited about them lately.
At least they're blowing up in the S&P 500 and not in XMHQ.
Latest favorite of Hindenburg -- short seller.
Edit: SCMI has also reported delaying filing of 10-K. I am guessing the Hindenburg report must have spooked the auditors. In a year when Hindenburg took down the Adani and Carl Icahn empires, any auditor should get nervous.
Comments
Second, looks to me they started in 2019, not showing the peak of 2020. If you look at this chart(https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q)
Trump started in Q1/2017 and by Q2/2020, real wages after inflation grew up from 355 to 393. That is 10.7% real growth. Then covid hit, and since Q2/2020, it went from 393 back to 368, this is a decline of 6.4%,
2 more observations:
1) From Q4/1099 to Q1/2017 = 18 years, it grew from 335 to 355 = 5.9%
2) Since 1980, no other president except Trump has achieved above 10% real wage growth.
reading comp, man, reading comp (study my hed)
2022 is 2y ago
As for:
>> Since 1980, no other president except Trump has achieved above 10% real wage growth.
cite?
Are you thinking fig 3 of this supports your assertion?
https://www.aei.org/articles/have-wages-stagnated-for-decades-in-the-us/
An answer may lie in this thicket; search for "real wage":
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_policy_of_the_Donald_Trump_administration
Also delve these:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_policy_of_the_Donald_Trump_administration
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0215
Will be interested in your evidence. Above 10%, huh.
Q1/2017 through Q2/2020 vs. Wikipedia's "real wage" figures from the "2017–2019 period".
There's a well known golf saying (a rule, actually): Play it where it lies.
Covid hit during Trump's administration. That's the hand he was dealt. The economy he inherited was strong and growing. That's also part of the hand he was delt. You don't get to cherry pick dates any more than you do when looking at investment performance.
But for fun, let's go with it. We'll use March 2020 as the month that COVID struck. That's when WHO declared it a pandemic. That's the month when number of workers employed started to drop; they fell through the floor in April.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1taIE
Since we're agreed that Covid distorts things, we'll count the numbers only up to Covid, i.e. through Feb 2020. The original FRED graph (median real employment wages) doesn't have that sort of granularity. So instead, here's a graph of nominal wages. (With inflation so low, Y/Y dropping to nearly 0 in April 2020, nominal or real is no big diff.)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1taJw
Sure enough, there's that spike that accounts for the outsized increase in wages. But take a closer look. As we zoom in, we see that the jump occurred in April 2020, i.e. as a result of Covid. Average wages spiked (perhaps as businesses shut down lower paid workers were disproportionately unemployed?), then declined and within 2-3 months resumed the same upward trend they had been on all along.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1taKg
Just as we're not giving the blame to Trump for the precipitous drop in employment in April 2020, we don't give the credit to Trump for the spike in wages that same month.
Obamacare had a huge affect long-term. IMO, it was one of the worst legislation. I priced what healthcare would cost me and my wife prior to Medicare.
Before Obamacare it was $400 monthly with a $3K deductible.
After Obamacare it was $1200-1300 monthly with a $5-6K deductible. That was years ago. I know several people who pay now about $1000 per person and 7-9K deductible.
(link) On the first week of Biden's presidency, "Biden’s orders direct the secretary of the Interior Department to halt new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters, and begin a thorough review of existing permits for fossil fuel development.
Do you think the above has nothing to do why oil started to go up? Oil is a huge resource in our economy, don't you think it increased inflation?
After the embarrassing exit from Afghanistan, Putin realized that Biden is a weak pres and why he invaded Ukraine. He also did on Obama watch but not during Trump.
How much money does the US allocate to Ukraine? easy over $100 billion.
Why did 4 Arab countries sign a peace agreement with Israel during Trump, which is the first time ever, while the Middle East is on fire now?
When Harris said she wants price control, don't you think it would affect us in a big way?
So yes, several presidents are more influential than others.
I gather someone with address your drivel. I will say that one again you exhibit that you are as unhinged as your idol. Keep drinking the Kool-Aid.
Wow, there's lots to unpack in your commentary!
I'll just comment on two topics.
"Obamacare had a huge affect long-term."
You're correct that "Obamacare" had huge long-term effects:
1) More than 16 million Americans obtained coverage within five years' passage of Obamacare.
2) People with preexisting conditions can't he denied health insurance.
3) Prescription drug costs are more affordable for many Medicare participants.
4) More screenings and preventative services are covered with low copays or deductibles.
5) Insurance companies can no longer set lifetime limits for coverage.
"After the embarrassing exit from Afghanistan, Putin realized that Biden is a weak pres and why he invaded Ukraine."
Both Trump & Biden were eager to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan.
Trump struck a deal for withdrawal by May 1, 2021.
Biden inherited this deal but delayed the withdrawal date.
The withdrawal was problematic, to say the least,
but to blame this entirely on Biden is disingenuous.
https://www.factcheck.org/2021/08/timeline-of-u-s-withdrawal-from-afghanistan/
Edit/Add:
"On the first week of Biden's presidency, "Biden’s orders direct the secretary of the Interior Department
to halt new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters,
and begin a thorough review of existing permits for fossil fuel development.
Do you think the above has nothing to do why oil started to go up?
Oil is a huge resource in our economy, don't you think it increased inflation?"
Many different factors can influence oil prices.
You may want to contemplate potential causes before rushing to judgement and playing the "blame game."
https://usafacts.org/articles/what-impacts-the-price-of-oil/
@Observant1: good catch on that Afghanistan fact check.
Note to myself: this is an off topic thread [to me].
When this happens, other posters immediately suggest moving a thread to the OT section. This effectively gives the frequent offenders the power to cause entire threads to be "banished" to OT Land because of their deliberate violation of the customary ground rules.
I don't buy it.
I'm wondering what folks make of NVDA's earning call and super micro being looked at sideways...any chicanery going on there? I've sold over 1/2 my holdings in TSUMX due to the sudden mgr change...looking hard at BRK.B, WMT, IAU and maybe TWEIX...
+1
I know what is going on in this forum and in this thread. I did not read FD's posts in this thread but reading the very short Mona reply gave me the hint the direction the thread is taking.
I read all your posts. I do not read more than 50% of FD's posts. I have to prioritize my time. Because I read all your and some other posters' posts, I had to leave a note to myself that the thread is off-topic to me. Does not mean it is off-topic to you guys. You guys should feel free to continue. I was not trying to lecture or offend anyone.
FD if this is true you wouldn't post so much.
Haven’t had time to read the whole thread. Looks nuts. Sure to be a good read!
Waiter - Bring me another …
They have a history.
They were just another vendor advertising in The Computer Weekly in the Bay Area before the internet. Always wondered why people got so excited about them lately.
At least they're blowing up in the S&P 500 and not in XMHQ.
While at it go read about James Carville and Mary Matalin.
Edit: SCMI has also reported delaying filing of 10-K. I am guessing the Hindenburg report must have spooked the auditors. In a year when Hindenburg took down the Adani and Carl Icahn empires, any auditor should get nervous.
Hmmm....