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(Change in Topic) The Budget Deficit - Is it a Threat? / Conservative Views / Liberal Views

edited August 9 in Off-Topic
Note 8/09/24 - I have changed the title of this thread and its category designation (now “Off-Topic”). The tenor and content have shifted from post market correction investment ideas to the federal deficit and which political party is right. I appreciated all the investment ideas the thread generated during its first 3 or 4 days. Thanks to all who contributed.
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Listened off and on overnight as Bloomberg ‘s commentators kept score on the carnage in Asia (Warren Buffet’s name mentioned at least 100 times).

After the sun rose across the Western markets, Monday didn’t progress as a full blown train wreck. More like a bunch of overloaded cars jumping track, colliding, rolling over and in some cases spilling the goods - all apparently juiced by issues across trading platforms, We’ve all lived through worse. .

Nothing across the dozen or so potential buys I track leaped out as worth grabbing off (particularly as it would require selling something else). Nothing I own surprised enough to consider selling. There was brief thought to making a bid in the beaten up commodities sector - especially energy, That area largely recovered by day’s end.

It will be interesting to see the explanations from Schwab, Vangard, others about the cause of their platform issues and how they plan to prevent it from happening again. Did you make any changes yesterday / today based on these events?

Comments

  • In the account I babysit for a colleague, I emptied his PRTXX MMF and bought PRFDX. I'm re-growing cash now in my own account, after buying BHB the day before the market tantrum, yesterday. The Market sank last Friday, too. I'm confident it will bounce back.
  • Nope. Thought I might be able to heading into the close, but didn't hit my targets.

    There will be other opportunities, I'm sure.
  • Deployed cash we had accumulated in T-IRAs during the spring ‘24, into mostly equity. Not a lot. Just enough to make me concerned about being too early.
  • As mentioned in the BSW thread I added to some income CEF''s and then a little to FXAIX at the close. Nothing remarkable really.
  • Added some to most positions.
    The media keeps using the R word (recession), and the market rolls over. Was yesterday capitulation, ending a correction? Or the start to something else? Either way, I'll add more as time passes.
  • Sell off? Did something consequential happen? I do see that the Nikkei closed up 11% today.
  • I loaded up further on TLT, ZROZ. These have had good pops.
  • don't just do something! stand there!
  • We are neglecting the real danger. Do google search on "The US National Debt Charts", study and plot a graph to predict the total US National debt at the end of 2026 and input your forecast on the future of the US economy and market for the next two years with your supporting assumptions and data.
  • The "real danger" seems to come in a fair number of shapes, sizes, and packaging right now. Quite a variety to choose from.
  • Nevertheless, gotta bring down that astronomical debt. For so many reasons.
  • No argument, but good luck to us on that. Last time that I looked there was neither a major candidate for president nor a major political party saying anything of the kind.
  • Old_Joe said:

    No argument, but good luck to us on that. Last time that I looked there was neither a major candidate for president nor a major political party saying anything of the kind.

    Until there's a crisis ready to fall upon us imminently, nothing gets done, eh? Truth.
  • edited August 6
    The debt crisis could affect us in 30 days or 30 years(or more). Nobody really knows and futile to build an investment strategy around that.

    CA earthquake (The Big One) is a good analogy.
  • edited August 7
    +1

    The debit crisis can has been kicked around hard by both left and right at least since I was old enough to read U.S. News & World Report which is the year Goldwater ran for President. A real issue of course - but difficult to analyze rationally … difficult to apply to investment strategy.

    Good luck to you if your plan is not to invest out of fear of the debt crisis … or illegal immigration … or crime in the cities … or climate change … or draught … or earthquake, abortion - or gay people … or perhaps an extraterrestrial invasion. The last one would garner a lot of media attention and probably drive up the value of Paramount, Comcast, Disney.
  • Old_Joe said:

    Yep.

    Bullshit, come on
  • hank said:



    difficult to analyze rationally

    Bullshit, come on
  • edited August 7
    Never mind. Deleted: “difficult to analyze rationally”

    (I should have said instead: “easy to rationalize”)

    PS - I’ve deleted the short referenced “aside” in my commentary which added no substantive value but elicited the wrath of one reader! :)
  • edited August 7
    "Bullshit, come on"

    @davidmoran- Well, maybe I've been missing something. Can you point me to a major candidate for president or a major political party honestly worried about the ever-increasing national debt?
  • We are comfortable with our asset allocation, and thus made no changes. We took advantage of market downturn and made a small Roth conversion. Don’t think we are out of the wood yet as shown this morning with low turnouts on treasury auction. Who want to lock up their 10 years treasury notes yielding at less than 4%?
  • OJ, I was responding to this thread

    Crash said:
    gotta bring down that astronomical debt. For so many reasons.

    You replied:
    Last time that I looked there was neither a major candidate for president nor a major political party saying anything of the kind.

    Crash said:
    Until there's a crisis ready to fall upon us imminently, nothing gets done, eh?

    You said:
    Yep.

    Regardless of whether the debt is 'astronomical' and needs immediate reduction somehow/anyhow (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/06/opinion/national-debt-us-taxes.html), my response was grounded in knowing that both parties have repeatedly proposed solutions that would effect some reduction: wise and practical (Democrats, tax reform and tax increases) or foolish and punitive (Republicans, cutting services).

    So I was disputing the glib response of it's hopeless. Maybe I misinterpreted you. I am triggered by cynicism these days more than ever.
  • Yeas, aren't we all. No prob.
  • Yes… I took my equity holdings down from 80% to 55% … 35% is currently in money markets and 10% in bonds. I plan to keep this allocation until we either see a significant selloff or we get past the election.
  • MikeW said:

    Yes… I took my equity holdings down from 80% to 55% … 35% is currently in money markets and 10% in bonds. I plan to keep this allocation until we either see a significant selloff or we get past the election.

    ...Or we get past the election. Ya, the country is almost evenly split between the two feckless major Parties. At least one of them still pretends to be trying to serve the public, rather than the Oligarchy.

    Prudent moves.
  • edited August 9
    You don’t know what feckless means

    Republicans are irresponsible in excelsis but extremely extremely effective (opposite of feckless)

    Democrats are not pretending and never have been

    Jeeezus, man
  • edited August 9
    I once was a Democrat. During the years with Clinton and Gingrich the Newt as House Speaker, uncle Bill was just OK with moving to the Right. The Repugnants used to be Republicans. There are very few true Republicans remaining. In fact, if they're still in that Party, they've stayed too long at the party. That Party belongs to the Trumpster these days. No one has to tell uncle David Moran how unhinged the Trumpster is.

    How many years have passed, with either Dems or Reps in elected leadership, and we still don't have a universal, national health plan? How many domestic terroristic attacks have there been involving rifles and guns? How many lives lost? And still, there is no Gun Control with teeth, anywhere. (I see an isolated recent MD court decision upholding a semi-automatic gun ban.)

    How long will it be before we ditch the preposterous Electoral College, too? Answer: it will never happen. It's too big a lift. And when the minority can trump the majority via the E.C, they sure do not want it to go away. But the Interstate Compact is getting closer and closer to the magic 270 Electoral Vote threshold:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

    Both Parties are beholden to Big, Sweaty Money. I do see a difference in this respect: though there have always been policy differences, both Parties at least formerly were working from the same playbook, with the same fundamental, foundational values. No more. The Repugs have moved off the Reservation and have prioritized their own survival at any cost, because they know they are shrinking.
    "Feckless:" Lacking the courage to act in any meaningful way.
    Yes, this is way off topic. I'll delete it soon. Just responding.

    @hank has rearranged things. I suppose my message DOES fit, now...
  • edited August 9
    The title changed; my post is not related.
    mmm...so any time someone starts discussing politics, we are going to change the title?

    This is why politics should not be discussed on an investment forum and since one side posts about it 4:1 or 3:1 more than the other side, please stop. It's getting boring and silly.

  • Thanks @FD. Appreciate your on-topic response.
  • FD1000 said:

    The title changed; my post is not related.
    mmm...so any time someone starts discussing politics, we are going to change the title?

    This is why politics should not be discussed on an investment forum and since one side posts about it 4:1 or 3:1 more than the other side, please stop. It's getting boring and silly.

    A-hem. It IS an investing website discussion board. The off-topic section is just that.
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