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”Online prediction market PredictIt shows that Harris is the favorite to win in November, with shares of a Harris victory being sold for 52 cents, while shares for a Donald Trump victory are being sold at 50 cents.”
Several other betting sites + polling data show a similar shift in public opinion.
Selecting Vice President Harris as the Democratic nominee could have been a divisive and drawn-out affair. It's great to see the overwhelming support she has received. Ms. Harris may fare better than Joe Biden with blacks, women, and independent voters. IMHO, Trump's autocratic aspirations, insular policies, and deliberate actions to divide the citizenry (link) would be very detrimental for our great nation. Let's MAGA with a humiliating loss for Trump and subsequent incarceration for this convicted felon!
Do those betting markets have a line on potential VP picks for Harris? I think highly of Mr. Pete Buttigieg - sharp, smart, articulate, classy - way over the top of anything the GOP has anywhere for anything. However there is a deep pool of potential choices for her to select from. Hate to see the democrats give up (put at risk) any senate, representative or governor seats currently held.
Adding: above all just give us a decent human being and not some cesspool swamp creature.
Do those betting markets have a line on potential VP picks for Harris? I think highly of Mr. Pete Buttigieg - sharp, smart, articulate, classy - way over the top of anything the GOP has anywhere for anything. However there is a deep pool of potential choices for her to select from. Hate to see the democrats give up (put at risk) any senate, representative or governor seats currently held.Adding: above all just give us a decent human being and not some cesspool swamp creature.
Betting markets tend to be a pretty accurate of public opinion - FWIW.
Agree the VP pick will be a crucial factor. Democrats tend to be more all inclusive (ethnicity, race, sexual preference, religion) than the other side. Harris therefore has “baggage” in not being “lilly white” as Trump seems to like to remind his base by questioning her heritage. The VP pick very likely too will not conform to the far right’s image of a “True American.” Nonsense of course. Hopefully the vast majority of voters will peer through these artificial stereotypes / limiters and select the best qualified ticket to lead.
Not betting - but my money is on Shapiro based on just the little bit I’ve seen of him. I like Mark Kelly a lot, but his background is in engineering / physics / aerospace. I wonder how well he’d be able to withstand and dish-out the kind of bullshit our campaigns today seem to require. I dare say he’s too decent to run. A real wild card would be Michigan’s Whitmer. I think the country would vote for two females atop the ticket, but I could be wrong.
It is time to have a women minority as a president who is sharp (former prosecutor), bright and articulated. All VP candidates have their pluses and minuses, and I like them all! Whitmer would be a great choice but I am not sure this country is ready for two women on the ticket.
All the BS that is being proposed will reignite inflation to an even higher level. I can’t imagine what the national debt would be with the tax cuts.
The ranks of potential VPs are such a treasure. Dems have a hell of a cohort ready to serve, and the contrast with the two hateful lunatics is about as stark as it could be.
I'd love to see Whitmer on the campaign trail - she is such a great speaker - but like you guys have already said, two women could be a stretch too far, and the #1 job is to WIN and deny the wackos the power to create an autocracy like their pal Orban did in Hungary.
Regarding that lily white business I'm just wondering, was he always orange or did he just suddenly become that?
Somebody should look into that I think. I, of course, don't give a flying eff but it is weird.
LOL. Such wit. Thanks. Shapiro looks likely, I think. Bring home PA for the Electoral count. Silly-ass institution: Electoral College. I was hoping for Whitmer, too. But too many voters are idiots, and would not vote for them just because they're both female. Never underestimate how short-sighted and ignorant toomany American voters are.
@Andy J, @Crash -I too would be happy with two women. What year is this anyway. As a collective we sure haven't advanced much.
About Mr. Pritzker, haven't heard much about him but it appears as though he's accomplished quite a bit and would make for a solid choice as well. Should be interesting.
The ranks of potential VPs are such a treasure. Dems have a hell of a cohort ready to serve...
I agree, which makes me wonder why those in charge of the Democratic party have had such a hard time finding a winnable candidate to run for president. Where were these choices 4 years ago when the party had to talk Biden into running when his heart initially wasn't in it?
For no reason other than gut feel, I think Kelly would add most to the ticket.
Kelly would for sure help AZ and maybe elsewhere, like NV. He's a little more of a hardliner on the border, so could help swing some votes there. The other thing I'm imagining is an ad with Gabby about how Republicans support gun violence.
Pritzker (thanks for correcting my misspelling) is hugely wealthy; the family owns the Hyatt chain, and he's made piles on his own. Campaign finance advantage there.
IMHO, Joe should have announced he was bowing out soon after the midterms so there could have been a full primary process. That said, things are headed very much in the right direction; see the latest Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll. (There's also an article on Bloomberg, but it's paywalled.)
Six of the 7 swing-y-est states are moving toward KH; only WI isn't. Michigan? Up by 11.
I surely agree that Mark Kelly would probably be one of the best choices from the standpoint of picking up Arizona votes, but I would also hope that Tim Walz could find a prominent place in a new cabinet. I really like that guy.
Detail on that Bloom/MC poll for AZ: Harris is up 2 head-to-head, but they also did a separate poll including RFKjr, the libertarian, and Stein -- and she's up 4 when all the candidates are included. See 538 here.
No one wants to include CornelWest. But he's in the race, even if as a pre-determined loser. Because of the silly State-by-State election process, and because Hawaii is locked-up tight already by the Dems, I just may vote for uncle Cornel, because I can't go along with the other choices--- except perhaps Stein. If West can't get on my State's ballot, it'll be Stein for this former Wobbly. (I'd still be in the Union, except that the organization is operationally a cluster-flop.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornel_West
Looks like @Mark may lose his Governor. I’m not at all familiar with waltz, Walt, wall, Walz. (My spell-checker isn’t either.) Hope he knows how to kick a**.
If the popular vote was the true measuring stick for our US Presidential elections, Harris currently has a 3% lead. However, with our wonderful Electoral system being what it is, Donnie still has a shot at avoiding jail time.
If the popular vote was the true measuring stick for our US Presidential elections, Harris currently has a 3% lead. However, with our wonderful Electoral system being what it is, Donnie still has a shot at avoiding jail time.
This would make a great theme for a novel - “Convicted felon seeks to avoid prison by campaigning for President. ”
******************** Turning of the tide? I'm an odd duck when it comes to election years and all the campaigning. I never wanted to be bothered with robo-calls on behalf of candidates; I never wanted to go answer the door because someone presumed to come by and wanted to convince me to vote for person X or Y or Z. The standard campaigning tasks to "get out the vote" are an invasion of my privacy. I disconnected my landline in 2016 and never looked back.
The polls show it's still a very, very close contest. But Joe won AZ in '20 only by... 20,000 votes, was it? That's the razor's edge. Kudos to the GOP election officials in GA who stood up to the Orange scumbag Criminal, trying to force them to "find" 12,000 votes, eh?
The GA gubernatorial election when Stacey Abrams lost, barely: still sticks in my craw. Too many stinking irregularities, there. I want to see her in some influential position. Maybe get elected! Maybe someday it will be HER turn to occupy one of those Trump-labeled "black jobs," like... PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES!
It’s about to get even more interesting. There are numerous media reports that the fella whose brain was once eaten by a worm and who recently confessed to dumping a dead bear in Central Park will drop out and support the orange mop-head. haired candidate.
Now I’ll get back to reading Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking Glass.. Makes infinitely more sense.
The current numbers from Nate Silver's latest iteration (538 founder who left his creation after Disney/ABC bought it) here, widely considered the most rigorous and accurate polling averages.
It’s about to get even more interesting. There are numerous media reports that the fella whose brain was once eaten by a worm and who recently confessed to dumping a dead bear in Central Park will drop out and support the orange mop-head. haired candidate.
Now I’ll get back to reading Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking Glass.. Makes infinitely more sense.
Sure enough. Kennedy, Jr. has to save face somehow. And you're right. Alice In Wonderland makes more sense! ORK!
Comments
It's great to see the overwhelming support she has received.
Ms. Harris may fare better than Joe Biden with blacks, women, and independent voters.
IMHO, Trump's autocratic aspirations, insular policies, and deliberate actions to divide the citizenry (link)
would be very detrimental for our great nation.
Let's MAGA with a humiliating loss for Trump and subsequent incarceration for this convicted felon!
Adding: above all just give us a decent human being and not some cesspool swamp creature.
Agree the VP pick will be a crucial factor. Democrats tend to be more all inclusive (ethnicity, race, sexual preference, religion) than the other side. Harris therefore has “baggage” in not being “lilly white” as Trump seems to like to remind his base by questioning her heritage. The VP pick very likely too will not conform to the far right’s image of a “True American.” Nonsense of course. Hopefully the vast majority of voters will peer through these artificial stereotypes / limiters and select the best qualified ticket to lead.
Not betting - but my money is on Shapiro based on just the little bit I’ve seen of him. I like Mark Kelly a lot, but his background is in engineering / physics / aerospace. I wonder how well he’d be able to withstand and dish-out the kind of bullshit our campaigns today seem to require. I dare say he’s too decent to run. A real wild card would be Michigan’s Whitmer. I think the country would vote for two females atop the ticket, but I could be wrong.
Somebody should look into that I think. I, of course, don't give a flying eff but it is weird.
All the BS that is being proposed will reignite inflation to an even higher level. I can’t imagine what the national debt would be with the tax cuts.
I'd love to see Whitmer on the campaign trail - she is such a great speaker - but like you guys have already said, two women could be a stretch too far, and the #1 job is to WIN and deny the wackos the power to create an autocracy like their pal Orban did in Hungary.
Dontcha love the title of her book?
Edit: This just in: KH is interviewing the final six this weekend: Beshear, Pritzker, Shapiro, Walz, Kelly, and Mayor Pete.
Shapiro looks likely, I think. Bring home PA for the Electoral count. Silly-ass institution: Electoral College. I was hoping for Whitmer, too. But too many voters are idiots, and would not vote for them just because they're both female. Never underestimate how short-sighted and ignorant too many American voters are.
About Mr. Pritzker, haven't heard much about him but it appears as though he's accomplished quite a bit and would make for a solid choice as well. Should be interesting.
For no reason other than gut feel, I think Kelly would add most to the ticket.
Pritzker (thanks for correcting my misspelling) is hugely wealthy; the family owns the Hyatt chain, and he's made piles on his own. Campaign finance advantage there.
IMHO, Joe should have announced he was bowing out soon after the midterms so there could have been a full primary process. That said, things are headed very much in the right direction; see the latest Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll. (There's also an article on Bloomberg, but it's paywalled.)
Six of the 7 swing-y-est states are moving toward KH; only WI isn't. Michigan? Up by 11.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornel_West
True 'dat. Vance is the gift that keeps on giving.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
But of course, elections are won State by State (still!) in this crazy country.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/06/harris-vp-pick-is-tim-walz.html
waltz,Walt,wall, Walz. (My spell-checker isn’t either.) Hope he knows how to kick a**.Walz owns no stocks, real estate, securities. "Mr. Clean." Jeepers.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4816341-minnesota-gov-tim-walz-financial-disclosures/
National generic ballot tonight: Harris +3.3%
Arizona +1.2
Nevada +0.4
Georgia Trump +0.8
N.C. Harris +0.2
WI Harris +3.7
PA: Harris +1.6
********************
Turning of the tide?
I'm an odd duck when it comes to election years and all the campaigning. I never wanted to be bothered with robo-calls on behalf of candidates; I never wanted to go answer the door because someone presumed to come by and wanted to convince me to vote for person X or Y or Z. The standard campaigning tasks to "get out the vote" are an invasion of my privacy. I disconnected my landline in 2016 and never looked back.
The polls show it's still a very, very close contest. But Joe won AZ in '20 only by... 20,000 votes, was it? That's the razor's edge. Kudos to the GOP election officials in GA who stood up to the Orange scumbag Criminal, trying to force them to "find" 12,000 votes, eh?
The GA gubernatorial election when Stacey Abrams lost, barely: still sticks in my craw. Too many stinking irregularities, there. I want to see her in some influential position. Maybe get elected! Maybe someday it will be HER turn to occupy one of those Trump-labeled "black jobs," like... PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES!
mop-head. haired candidate.Now I’ll get back to reading Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking Glass.. Makes infinitely more sense.