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@FD1000 So what? Just because investors can do this, that or the other thing doesn't mean they will. No matter how hard you try to convince them, they will do what they feel most comfortable with no matter what evidence you provide to the contrary.
Want proof? Look at the current leading presidential candidate for the Republican Party.
It's just an opinion, as much as yours. We are just anonymous posters. Anyone should do what is good for them and when they do it they should use due diligence.
What Trump has to do anything with our discussion? Why bring politics into an investment site when our country is divided?
Not too long ago we were all talking in a thread about "the market" going sideways for a decade, or more.
Now we're being told that we should all invest in the 500, like Buffet "advises" his wife to do when he dies. Which sort of misses the point that she is likely to inherit a crap-ton of Berkshire shares, and heaven knows what else. Who is going to tell her to sell all that so she can plunk it all down on the 500?
Well. I don't have those resources. Sometimes the goal of investing is not to "beat the market" but to preserve capital that can be put to work to sustain a certain level of comfort in retirement.
@wabac, You raised good points. A portfolio can have several goals. Performance is always important. But, I also think that risk-adjusted performance is more important, at least for me, and that can be measured by the Sharpe ratio.
The following are several simple measurements I set for myself 1) My stock portion must beat the easiest most common index VOO/VTI. If I don't beat it, my stock portion must have a better risk-adjusted performance. 2) My bond portion should beat good bond funds, starting with BND and DODIX. 3) If I have 50/50, must beat W+W (Wellington, Wellesley) 4) For a conservative portfolio, must beat Wellesley. The above is just a start, a minimum. I also know about great funds over the years, such as PRWCX and PIMIX.
I'm very critical of my own portfolio. It's all data-driven. No excuses are allowed. It doesn't matter if you use 3 or 10-15 funds, or how you do it.
Suppose I want to set up an easy buy and hold portfolio for a retiree, see below 2 real-life examples. 1) In order to make my wife's investment decisions easier, I set up a written plan for her to invest in only 3 funds. I only trust 2 choices indexes + Vanguard funds managed by Wellington. Wellington Management is the oldest, it's conservative, team style, and not one dominant manager, with a very cheap expense ratio. Since our money isn't with Vanguard, we would have to own the more expensive funds(not Admiral), but it's still cheap.
For a younger age, until age 70-75 and still having a taxable account...45% VWINX...25% VWAHX(HY Muni)...30% VSMGX. Because of HY Muni bonds which are hybrid, this portfolio is more like 40/60
Older than 70-75 or taxable account is gone: 40% VWINX(40/60)...30% VWEHX(HY Corp)...30% VSMGX(60/40). Because of HY Corp bonds which are hybrid, this portfolio is more like 45/55.
2) An older relative retired around 2002 and told me he saw several financial advisors and they want to charge him 1% and he really doesn't trust any of them. Markets are volatile and he wants a stable LT simple portfolio and all his money is at Vanguard. Based on the amount of money he had, he needed about 3.5% yearly withdrawal and wants a conservative portfolio. I told him he can be in just 35-40% stocks and the rest bond and to invest in just 2 funds VWIAX+VCCGX. If he needs more money, just sell shares from both funds at equal amount of money. Just keep several thousands in the bank, use your SS and distributions from these 2 funds and if you require more just sell shares from both at 70/30 (VWIAX+VCCGX).
In the first 10-15 years, this guy called me every 2-3 years and thanked me how I saved him so much money and how it works well. Below are the results(link)including 3.5% annual withdrawal, and they show that KISS investing and spending worked very well. This portfolio was able to support the 3.5% and grow at 6% (including the 3.5% withdrawal).
Comments
What Trump has to do anything with our discussion? Why bring politics into an investment site when our country is divided?
Now we're being told that we should all invest in the 500, like Buffet "advises" his wife to do when he dies. Which sort of misses the point that she is likely to inherit a crap-ton of Berkshire shares, and heaven knows what else. Who is going to tell her to sell all that so she can plunk it all down on the 500?
Well. I don't have those resources. Sometimes the goal of investing is not to "beat the market" but to preserve capital that can be put to work to sustain a certain level of comfort in retirement.
As the man said after he fell from the roof:
You’re right FD. On that you and I agree. Plus, there’s an OT section for those of us who want to soil our hands discussing the tortured soul.
You raised good points. A portfolio can have several goals. Performance is always important. But, I also think that risk-adjusted performance is more important, at least for me, and that can be measured by the Sharpe ratio.
The following are several simple measurements I set for myself
1) My stock portion must beat the easiest most common index VOO/VTI. If I don't beat it, my stock portion must have a better risk-adjusted performance.
2) My bond portion should beat good bond funds, starting with BND and DODIX.
3) If I have 50/50, must beat W+W (Wellington, Wellesley)
4) For a conservative portfolio, must beat Wellesley.
The above is just a start, a minimum. I also know about great funds over the years, such as PRWCX and PIMIX.
I'm very critical of my own portfolio. It's all data-driven. No excuses are allowed. It doesn't matter if you use 3 or 10-15 funds, or how you do it.
Suppose I want to set up an easy buy and hold portfolio for a retiree, see below 2 real-life examples.
1) In order to make my wife's investment decisions easier, I set up a written plan for her to invest in only 3 funds. I only trust 2 choices indexes + Vanguard funds managed by Wellington. Wellington Management is the oldest, it's conservative, team style, and not one dominant manager, with a very cheap expense ratio. Since our money isn't with Vanguard, we would have to own the more expensive funds(not Admiral), but it's still cheap.
For a younger age, until age 70-75 and still having a taxable account...45% VWINX...25% VWAHX(HY Muni)...30% VSMGX. Because of HY Muni bonds which are hybrid, this portfolio is more like 40/60
Older than 70-75 or taxable account is gone: 40% VWINX(40/60)...30% VWEHX(HY Corp)...30% VSMGX(60/40). Because of HY Corp bonds which are hybrid, this portfolio is more like 45/55.
2) An older relative retired around 2002 and told me he saw several financial advisors and they want to charge him 1% and he really doesn't trust any of them. Markets are volatile and he wants a stable LT simple portfolio and all his money is at Vanguard. Based on the amount of money he had, he needed about 3.5% yearly withdrawal and wants a conservative portfolio. I told him he can be in just 35-40% stocks and the rest bond and to invest in just 2 funds VWIAX+VCCGX. If he needs more money, just sell shares from both funds at equal amount of money. Just keep several thousands in the bank, use your SS and distributions from these 2 funds and if you require more just sell shares from both at 70/30 (VWIAX+VCCGX).
In the first 10-15 years, this guy called me every 2-3 years and thanked me how I saved him so much money and how it works well.
Below are the results(link)including 3.5% annual withdrawal, and they show that KISS investing and spending worked very well. This portfolio was able to support the 3.5% and grow at 6% (including the 3.5% withdrawal).