Does anyone have a fav fund or two LOOKING FORWARD

Baseball_Fan

As a riff on a prior thread...any favs looking forward in case of tough economic macro going forward meaning maybe more credit issues, trouble in mideast or Europe, banks issues, commercial real estate etc etc

I'm already in pvcmx...lot of cash, tbills in that fund holdings. Started to nibble at hstrx. Hussy total return gold, miners, utilities, tnotes etc. And gqepx. I like that Rajiv doesn't just stay in stonks that aren't working but is willing to change holdings pronto, like that he has folks looking at forensic accounting on his holdings

I'm not comfortable holding any bonds unless they are tbills or short treasuries. No assset backed bullshit alledged high rated bonds for me, no cmbs. No no no

No emerging markets no international not for me. I'm thinking the big tech stocks are still crazy overvalued

What say you?

MikeW

PKSAX is number one for me…. It’s my feel safe fund that has also performed… looking forward I’m most intrigued by the new Giroux etf…. Will likely put a significant position in it

hank

”Started to nibble at hstrx. “

Not a bad pick if you can buy NTF. There’s a fee at Fido. I looked at that one yesterday and was surprised it hasn’t done better this year with both gold and bonds having a decent year. Your question doesn’t define the time frame. For most nowadays a year seems an eternity. Some have much shorter and will eject after a month or two or three when a fund heads south.

I must not have any favorites because I have 20 different holdings. The largest 4 come in at 10% of portfolio each. They represent different variations on alternative and asset allocation type funds where I’m most comfortable at my age. While each could loose 5 or 10% in a terrible year, as a group they are fairly stable - very much “set it and forget it” type holdings. I rationalize a somewhat expensive L/S alternative by considering the overall cost of my funds and also by holding a few individual stocks to reduce costs.

You mention EM funds. I have a very small 1-2% hold in one. Bought in at the depths last year, so it’s already gained some. Before it gets back to any kind of reasonable valuation I will sell and roll the $$ into a broadly diversified balanced fund at the same house. In that case you’re paid to wait because by most accounts EM valuations are still compelling. I have a very small 2% bite on SPDN - an 1X inverse S&P. That’s to moderate volatility on down days. I think there are many other areas that will perform much better than the S&P over the next several years. With that inverse offset it allows taking on a bit more risk in other areas. International funds plus a few individual socks stocks are some I like. Japan is a long-shot. But exposure there might add a bit of diversification relative to domestic markets.

Inserted later - Non dollar-hedged Japan adds a currency play. I suspect that’s the better way to go at this point. Check back in a year.

Whoever said PRPFX in @MikeM’s thread made good sense to me. With some funds, throw away the performance numbers and look at what’s inside. If you see a case for precious metals, foreign currencies, real estate, and some AAA government bonds for defense in the future you might like the fund. I do. Albeit, some criticize it saying fees are too high for what amounts to a passive investment approach.

Derf

@hank : What kind of socks are you investing in, argyle ? I couldn't help myself.
Time for NCAA, Derf

hank

Derf said:

@hank : What kind of socks are you investing in, argyle ? I couldn't help myself.
Time for NCAA, Derf

Socks? Prefer cotton - FWIW

Thanks @Derf for noting my gaff. I’ve repaired the blunder. We aim to please!

I’d prefer talking about socks over stocks any day.

MikeM

I've become enamored with AVGE, Avantis All Equity Markets ETF. I don't know what the future holds, so the appeal of a diversified equity portfolio fund makes sense to me. It's a fairly young fund-of-funds holding which has been highlighted in MFO commentaries. I sold off AKREX back in Feb. and have been adding to this one as it's replacement.

Crash

I just can't invest in any of the all-world stocks or bonds funds. J. Clements wants us all to do just that. Going forward, I fully expect PRWCX to perform well. "Full Faith And Credit Of David Giroux."

stillers

Core, always: PRWCX and FBALX. Arguably two of the very best allocation funds.

Core, always: VFIAX and VTSAX (or Fido counterparts). Market risk.

(Continuing, for me at least) Going Forward:
Bought FSELX at EOY 2022 in anticipation of coming bull market. Usually no place better to be in a bull than FSELX. Semis broke out recently. FSELX is UP ~34% YTD but the sky is the limit for this iconic fund during bulls.

rforno

I'm looking closely at CGDV and CGGO for actively managed ETFs covering dividend growth and global growth. I like the Capital Group and prefer that approach versus index-based stuff.

BenWP

Thanks for those ideas @rforno. CGGO looks promising. I have not replaced the global growth funds that swooned in 2022, i.e., Kristian Heugh and MS funds. Do you know if the managers of CGGO run an equivalent MF strategy?

sma3

HSTRX

I will look at it again, although I am always concerned about Hussman's consistency and performance.

He writes these amazingly clear market commentaries with those beautiful graphics, claiming the roof is about to fall in, with data to support his position on valuations etc.

Then HSAFX is 75% stocks, HSTRX 75% short term bonds and HSGFX is 103% long with a short position of 35% so net 70% equity

I can never figure him out

rforno

BenWP said:

Thanks for those ideas @rforno. CGGO looks promising. I have not replaced the global growth funds that swooned in 2022, i.e., Kristian Heugh and MS funds. Do you know if the managers of CGGO run an equivalent MF strategy?

I think their equity ETFs follow their multi-manager 'sleeve'-oriented house approach to investing. It's not flashy and rarely knocks it out of the park, but I've been fairly pleased w/how the AF team runs their funds, several of which I own in very large amounts. I've not looked closely but all 4 ETF managers have been with Capital for over 20 years so presumably they've been managing/co-managing other funds.

BenWP

Thanks, @rforno.

BenWP

@rforno: I looked at the four CGGO managers' bios and found a decidedly international bent to the team. 2 are Europeans based in Geneva, 1 a Brit based in Singapore, and 1 American working from SF. At least 3 manage(d) a global growth and income fund listed in Luxembourg. Capital Group seems to be able to keep their talent, as these folks have remained there for some time. CGGO currently holds about 50% US stocks. The fund traded more than 1M shares today, so no problem with liquidity or big spreads.

By way of contrast, Harbor brought an international ETF to market last fall (OSEA). I have been following it, but have given up on buying it because it hasn't attracted much interest at all. This afternoon, when international ETFs were doing quite well, OSEA had traded only 1 share.

rforno

BenWP said:

@rforno: I looked at the four CGGO managers' bios and found a decidedly international bent to the team. 2 are Europeans based in Geneva, 1 a Brit based in Singapore, and 1 American working from SF. At least 3 manage(d) a global growth and income fund listed in Luxembourg. Capital Group seems to be able to keep their talent, as these folks have remained there for some time. CGGO currently holds about 50% US stocks. The fund traded more than 1M shares today, so no problem with liquidity or big spreads.

By way of contrast, Harbor brought an international ETF to market last fall (OSEA). I have been following it, but have given up on buying it because it hasn't attracted much interest at all. This afternoon, when international ETFs were doing quite well, OSEA had traded only 1 share.

Yup, which is among the reasons I respect them. Sure, I have quibbles about their need to offer 20+ share classes of funds, many of which have front-end loads, but on the whole, they're a huge low-key company that often flies under the radar -- and rarely has folks doing the CNBC thing, which also says a lot about their priorities, I think.

Mark

@rforno - "I think."

I've tried that, not much good ever ensues.

Crash

Mark said:

@rforno - "I think."

I've tried that, not much good ever ensues.

"I was thinking, which is a thing a man should not do..." Dean Jagger as Major Harvey Stovall in "Twelve O'clock High."
Go straight to 1:57:20.