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BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023

124

Comments

  • edited February 2023
    @MikeM et al
    As types noted by YBB, these instruments are generally parts of MMKT funds, too; being MMKT's of many vendors (Fido, etc.). Check their (your institutions) MMMKT offerings composition for a detailed list.
  • edited February 2023
    Lots of MBS in those. Pimco and DoubleLine noted them several weeks back as high yielding investments with a margin of safety, given how oversold they thought those securities were. The port yield and credit quality of Pimco Income looks to be benefitting, close to 6% depending on share class, for a low-ish IG fund overall (A- per M* metrics).

    I've never owned any of those securities directly, so not sure about safety vs. Treasuries. I'd guess pretty safe outside a major disaster like 2008, but not up to what you get with T's.

    Edit: Fidelity is showing a new-issue Fed Home Loan Bank 1y offering at 5.47%, not call protected.
  • Thanks all for the replies on Federal Agency bonds. Looking closer, I do see the Federal mortgage or loan in the issuers names. I see most are callable, but not sure on a 1 year bond that would matter much. But what do I know.
  • MikeM said:

    I see most are callable, but not sure on a 1 year bond that would matter much. But what do I know.

    Same here.

  • edited March 2023
    When Hell Freezes Over. February 20 - February 24, 2023

    ***A phrase used to say that one thinks that something will never happen.***

    A snippet of recent correspondence between myself and Jay Powell: I noted to him that I remained concerned that a lot of damage would take place to the economy attempting to achieve a 2% inflation rate in the near future. He replied that the policy was in place and would remain so and until and 'When Hell Freezes Over'. My last reply this week, of which, I've yet to receive his reply, included this image.

    :):):)

    Hell, Michigan is near Ann Arbor. The entire area is part of a massive freezing rain storm on Wednesday, and still finds 100,000's without power as of Saturday.
    "Mr. Powell, you and friends, now have your excuse to move rates with caution; as to not break the economy too much."

    --- U.S.$ UP +1.33% for the week, +1.82% YTD (Big POP this week)

    *** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference.

    *** Bonds of most flavors received a face slap 'again' this week. I'm still inclined towards IG bonds for the longer term, being year(s) not months; when the FED rates increases begin to stop and move downward. Duration right now is important for we investors, as the yield's for the short end are 'high'; as noted in the yield curve notations in the above chart. At some point, when the economy finds a defined direction; longer duration will find a path. I keep watching for rotations with yields/pricing, as I lean more towards attempting to find the profit from pricing; but right now I'm happy with the +4% yields of a MMKT. NOTE: MMKT yields have flat lined the past few weeks.

    --- About those MMKT's. As this may be a choice of more folks going forward during likely increased FED rates; and the zig-zag in the equity and bond markets, a look at one component of numerous MMKT funds.
    REPOS: The repo market is essentially a two-way intersection, with cash on one side and Treasury securities on the other. They’re both trying to get to the other side.
    One firm sells securities to a second institution and agrees to purchase back those assets for a higher price by a certain date, typically overnight. The contract those two parties draw up is known as a repo. Essentially, it’s a short-term collateralized loan. And just as most loans come with an interest payment, you can think of the difference between the original price and the second, higher price, as the “interest” paid on that loan. It’s also known as “the repo rate.” More HERE.

    Lastly, one may expect the FED to go back to the well of high rates, eh???; as they may not be pleased with all of the data points they gather. The economy remains too HOT in many sectors!

    A good day to you.....
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ---Several selected bond funds returns since October 25, 2022. I'll retain this date, as it is a recent inflection point when bonds began to have positive price moves. We'll need to watch if this was just a 'blip'.

    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.


    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, Febuary 20 - Febuary 24, 2023

    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo rates and ended the week at 4.47% . The core Fidelity MMKT's have continued a slow creep upward to 4.22%. The holdings of these different funds account for the variances at this time. *** These rates have now mostly flat lined for two weeks.

    --- AGG = -.9% / +.39% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.--% / +1.13% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.3% / -.1% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = -.8% / -.4% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -1.13% / -.27% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -.83% / +.11% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = -.38% / +.11% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = -.48% / -.06% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = -1.7% / +1.12% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = -1.38% / +1.67% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -1.5% / +2.6% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = -1.6% / +2.6% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = +2.8% / -2.9% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = -4.2% / +1.7% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = -.87% / +.47% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- LQD = -1.1% / +.71% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- BKLN = -.33% / +2.94% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = -.52% / +1.22% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = -.82 %/+1.12% (VanEck HY Muni
    --- MUB = -.63% /-.08% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = -.23%/+1.04% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = -1.7% / +4.46% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = -1.03% / +7.2% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 4.47% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund

    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022.
    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch


  • @Catch. As always thank you for your efforts. I notice you mentioned that MMKT have “mostly flat lined for two weeks.” I have noticed this and wonder if the plateau in rates has any significance. Other rates have continued upward during the same time frame. Your thoughts?
  • Catch, I too appreciate your efforts. I must admit that over the years it has seemed to me that it is in fixed income discussions that you are most in your element. Perhaps I just appreciate you more at such times.
  • @Catch22: Catch, since Ted isn't here to badmouth your posting, I'll attempt to hold up his end of the deal: All of that stuff is garbage, and no one cares anyway.

    :):):)
  • Hi @larryB
    I was going to write about this next week, but here we are and that's great; as it relates to your and my own question, too.

    SOFR is a broad measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by
    U.S. Treasury securities in the repurchase agreement (repo) market.

    There is monetary hand-holding in REPO and SOFR land. LIBOR had this function, but has been replaced with SOFR. LIBOR (London) had a few proven manipulations taking place and was given the boot for this monetary trading arena. Trillions of dollars travel these hidden electronic roads as we eat, sleep, play and other. I don't know about all of the areas using SOFR rates (lack of study time), but some large mortgage companies use the SOFR yield rate to set mortgage rates.

    SOFR New York Fed. Reserve related write up.
    This links to Part II, for the overview. I wouldn't begin to launch this in my own words. I think you'll find some quick decent reading without going crazy.

    SOFR A decent Investopedia definition

    My quick and dirty for SOFR and MMKT rates is that, as FED rates increased....then SOFR rates increased and with watching SOFR rates there is a very close connection in the yields being paid in MMKT's.

    SOFR is reported through the day on Bloomberg tv, and has remained at 4.55 during the same time frame as with the 'flat line' in MMKT yields, generally speaking. for the ones I view. There is a % range for this and I can't find my handy-dandy chart. I'll dig around and place it in this thread; as it can't be more than a few electrons away.

    Hi @Anna Thanks for the kind words. I learn from writing, too.


  • Hi @Old_Joe Ted would have posted 20 or 30 links by now and moved me to at least the third section in the newspaper.......somewhere near the 'oil change' tear out coupon ads.:)
  • edited February 2023
    Fine work, @Catch... carry on!
  • edited February 2023
    Ty...
    Will add could short term UST CORP BOND ETF toward mama acct
  • @larryB I found the SOFR numerical and graphic chart HERE. Scroll down a tiny to view. You'll see the numerical column and then a line graph, both with a date range. There are other settings below, but I've not fiddled with those. You'll note that the 4.55 has been in place for awhile and seems to be reflected in MMKT rates. I envision the folks traveling these money paths would be, not unlike some of us here playing SOFR poker; bidding against one another as to how much we're willing to pay in interest for an overnight loan of cash.:) There may be days when no game is played with changes. Save the chart link, if you want to peek going forward.
    SOFR may relate to those who are buying CD's at brokerage, and what numbers for yield they see, too.
    @johnN So many choices for bond exposure. I don't buy singular bonds, but much of the 'world' does for pension funds and related. They'll have their yield locked in, if that is what they want; but for the funds, we're subject to the changing prices. A tricky place to play, many times; if one is not willing to be patient with time, OR is an immaculate trader.
  • edited February 2023
    Yes, the rally from January is completely unwound by now. I bought junk early in '22 at just the WRONG time. Still -10% down in TUHYX. At some point, maybe the combination of dividends and share price might get me back to "even-steven." I don't EXPECT so. In the meantime, those buzzards can continue to pay me every month at a rate which exceeds IG and CDs, and in my next life, when rates come DOWN, then THAT next iteration of myself can enjoy a profit with it all. (Just under 15% of total portfolio.)

    Together with PRCPX and HYDB, junk is 21.45% of portfolio right now. (Although HYDB is a tiny fraction.) For a particular purpose my wife has in mind over the long haul, we are using SCHP. (TIPs.)
  • @Catch. Thanks again.
  • edited February 2023
    Crash said:

    I bought junk early in '22 at just the WRONG time. Still -10% down in TUHYX.)

    Yes. I’m in a similar situation with another HY fund. But I’m prepared to wait until ”Hell freezes over” before selling any of it. In the meantime we have this from Chauncey Gardner to guide us:

    “In a garden, things grow . . . but first, they must wither; trees have to lose their leaves in order to put forth new leaves, and to grow thicker and stronger and taller. Some trees die, but fresh saplings replace them. Gardens need a lot of care. But if you love your garden, you don’t mind working in it, and waiting. Then in the proper season you will surely see it flourish.”

    Excerpt from Being There by Jerzy Kosiński
  • edited February 2023
    @hank
    Being There. A fine example of many things human. If I were a Prof. of Poly. Sci., Psychology or related class; the 2h, 10 min. movie would be required with a 500 word overview from the student. No ChatGTP. In class write only.
    Peter Sellers, Shirley MacLaine and supporting cast were excellent in the 1979 movie.
  • @ Hank. Great reference to a terrific writer. That might be something the Bogleheads might quote if they were literary. A natural rationalization for staying the course. I remember Chauncey Gardner as an empty suit,,, had the right look and mumbled simple phrases that the masses were looking for. In other words a guy who could quickly rise in todays GOP. Empty suits babbling about wokeness.
  • "...Then in the proper season you will surely see it flourish."

    Excerpt from Being There by Jerzy Kosiński.

    I'm with you, there!
  • The 10y T touched 4% earlier today. Just for reference, Pimco's base case range from their January outlook was 3.25-4.25.
  • edited March 2023
    In addition to the 10 yr yield, the 2yr treasury yield reached 4.8% on Tuesday (a level last seen in mid-2006). The 6 month T bill reached 5.1%. Stocks continue to fall today.

    Pimco managers have been buying long treasuries as their prices dropped with increased yield.
  • 4.02% on the 10-year Wednesday evening. Good grief. It’s getting harder to make $$ in these markets,
  • Jason Zweig had an article in WSJ describing what @hank wrote above. It is about making lemonade out of lemon from treasuries.
    Until last year, the Fed had kept interest rates near zero for most of the past decade-and-a-half. Investors became desperate for something, anything, that yielded more than 1%. Wall Street spewed forth high-yield debt, energy partnerships, emerging-market bonds, private credit funds, private real-estate trusts, business-development companies, floating-rate bank-loan funds—all sold on the premise that you needed to take extra risk (and pay extra fees) to get extra income.

    But a 5% yield on short-term Treasurys is like kryptonite for the purveyors of that propaganda. “Why chase yield if you’re getting decent returns on a diversified, high-quality fixed-income portfolio?” says Julie Virta, a senior financial adviser at Vanguard Personal Advisor Services in Malvern, Pa.
    https://wsj.com/articles/welcome-to-the-5-world-where-yield-chases-you-af3df384

    At 4% treasury yield, how does that compete with stocks in general? In just 2 months, the 60/40 portfolio has rollbacked all the gain since the beginning of this year.
  • edited March 2023
    Thanks @Sven.

    Your link didn’t work for me, but found the Zweig article in my Kindle edition of the WSJ from Saturday. Never been a big Zweig fan. Good advice usually, just not very deep. But he hits the nail on the head in leading off with the following:

    ”Bonds are getting beaten down again. That means they can do a better job of protecting the rest of your portfolio against getting beaten up.”

    I agree. But it all depends on one’s investment approach. Certainly, the 4-5%+ returns on short term bonds & money funds are attractive and relatively risk-free. Fits the bill for many. All the while longer dated bond funds have been losing money. But for those who are more aggressively positioned in equities, having some intermediate or longer dated bonds / bond funds might provide a needed offset should the equity markets go to hell. Not saying that will happen. Just that for some folks bonds may have a role to play in how they construct their portfolios. I’ve tried to derive lessons from the 2008 fiasco. Appears most bonds / bond funds did not do very well but that those with government backing (especially longer dated) gained during 2008.

    It’s increasingly hard to find people in the investing business today who think U.S. stocks offer the same value proposition now that intermediate term bonds do. Doesn’t mean they have it right. And I prefer to stick to an allocation model I’ve put a lot of thought into over many years rather than jumping from one “hot” investment idea to another.

    Another observation: If I understand Zweig correctly, near the end of the article he says he thinks commodities will rise along with interest rates. Interesting conjecture.
  • edited March 2023
    Over, Under, Sideways, Down; February 27 - March 3, 2023

    The above is a song title of a Yardbirds song from 1966. Not about investing, but the words fit the current investing market place, eh?

    How about the state of things at the moment, it's all over the place, so it's sort of over, under, sideways, down.
    ---Over.....over valued
    ---Under..... under valued
    ---Sideways.....just plain sideways in values
    ---Down.....prices down for equity and bonds, bad; down yields for bonds, good for bond pricing and borrowing needs, private and business
    Other than these, everything is very clear in the investing world at this time:)
    Parts still on back order for the Magic 8 ball....crap!

    --- This list Feb. 20- 27 (most current for a full week) FUND FLOWS
    Pretty much bond-land for this time frame.
    Top 10 Creations (All ETFs) ...Ticker... Fund Name... Net In-Flows (millions)

    SHV iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF 3,146.28
    BIL SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF 1,841.76
    SGOV iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF 1,339.54
    BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF 943.49
    SPTS SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF 835.62
    JPST JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF 695.99
    TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 685.80
    GBIL Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF 626.00
    JEPI JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF 526.29
    SMLF iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap Multifactor ETF 490.80

    --- Friday, March 3.....ISM (Institute of Supply Management) services sector report is too 'hot' for the FED's liking. Too many folks still working. The number 50 is the base line, and the current number is 55.1, with an estimate of 54.5; the highest since December, 2021. One suspects we may find another higher (.5) Fed funds rate increase in our near future.
    ISM services covers many areas of economic measurements. Read about them here, if you're curious about the reports.

    ***Bonds were in a funk until Friday helped many sectors become happy for the week. The Real Yield thread at MFO may help with some of the current thinking. I remain with the thought that the 'pundits', if they're drinkers, would rather be throwing a few down at their favorite bar; as I'm convinced a lot of them don't know which darts to use for the board, either. I always keep in mind while watching yields that they only apply to our investing to a point, as I'm not buying individual bonds to hold for ten years or whatever time frame to obtain a full 4% rate. Our house watches the yields and how they are going to affect pricing, as we're buying the price, not the yield. Pension funds and related may be happy with long term holdings of bonds; but we retail investors for the most part, are buying bond mutual funds or bond etf's; and this is where pricing becomes most important, IMHO. NOTE: 'Hedge funds' also play big in the bond etf world. Yes, we may want to hold the fund or etf long term, but our goal is to buy 'low', right? Wouldn't it be nice to buy a fund with a sideways price and a yield of +6%; and just hold on, to support your income flows and balance one's equity holdings.
    Those MMKT's. Stagnant yields again this week, as they've hit a plateau; but most still having a yield between 4.2 and 4.5%, unless it's a magic sauce MMKT. Perhaps another bump up in yields when the FED raises rates again.

    --- U.S.$ DOWN -.64% for the week, +1.18% YTD (Big POP this week)

    *** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference.


    A good day to you.....
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ---Several selected bond funds returns since October 25, 2022. I'll retain this date, as it is a recent inflection point when bonds began to have positive price moves. We'll need to watch if this was just a 'blip'.

    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.


    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, Febuary 27 - March 3, 2023

    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates and ended the week at 4.46% (flat lined now). The core Fidelity MMKT's have continued a slow creep upward to 4.22%. The holdings of these different funds account for the variances at this time. *** These rates have now mostly flat lined for two weeks.

    --- AGG = +.19% / +.58% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.02% / +1.15% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.02% / -.12% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = -.07% / -.49% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +.05% / -.22% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +1.36% / +1.48% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = +.71% / +.81% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = +.72% / +.66% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = +3.0% / +4.14% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +1.16% / +2.86% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +1.66% / +4.31% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +2.38% / +5.05% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -2.3% / -5.14% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +2.8% / +4.6% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = +.1% / +.57% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- LQD = +.66% / +1.37% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- BKLN = +.96% / +3.92% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = +1.35% / +2.6% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = +.1 %/+1.2% (VanEck HY Muni)
    --- MUB = +.44% /+.36% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = +.58%/+1.62% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = +1.15% / +5.67% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = +1.4% / +7.67% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 4.46% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund

    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022.

    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • edited March 2023
    Thanks for the update @catch22. I've never been much of a bond guy, but I started a toe hold in TIPS a few weeks ago, mostly just to watch them closer than I would typically. VTIP and LTPZ, the 2 ends of the duration spectrum. Pretty much sideways since I bought.

    Nice work and thanks again.
  • MikeM said:

    Thanks for the update @catch22. I've never been much of a bond guy, but I started a toe hold in TIPS a few weeks ago, mostly just to watch them closer than I would typically. VTIP and LTPZ, the 2 ends of the duration spectrum. Pretty much sideways since I bought.

    Nice work and thanks again.

    Ditto. I got into SCHP about the same time as MikeM. A very short time ago. Result? Up by a tiny fraction, so far. But hey, winning is better than losing.
    Careful: LOUD start:



  • @catch22. Great Yardbirds reference.
  • Be careful is right.

    Remember what happened to poor Jerry Kosinski

    His suicide note read: "I am going to put myself to sleep now for a bit longer than usual. Call it Eternity."[
  • edited March 2023
    Riders on the Storm, March 6 - 10, 2023
    Song titles that may apply for this write:
    --- Riders on the Storm, The Doors, 1971
    --- Dazed and Confused, Led Zeppelin, 1969
    --- I Can see Clearly Now, Jimmy Cliff, 1993

    Bonds mostly in a funk until the Silicon Bank melt on Friday, March 10. Then, IG bonds performed as normal for a flight to safety. I suspect some of these price gains will be pulled back next week. 'Course, this may put a pinch on the FED plans for rate changes coming March 26; and I imagine numerous folks in the FED and Treasury departments do not have the weekend 'off'. As noted in a thread by @Old_Joe, Silicon Bank's UST collateral had to be dumped at market rates without benefit of maturity. Contagion towards other FDIC banks may be a problem at some point 'IF' their portfolio is concentrated within their customer base. I only note this now, as I imagine some bank portfolios will find a deep analysis of 'where is your money', being loans and deposits.
    An example could be: a bank catering to sub-prime used auto loan.
    The 2007-2008 melt was the result of too many folks with their fingers inside the sub-prime mortgage loans areas, and a lot of fancy quasi guarantees layered to protection against default of the mortgage borrower. As the dominoes fell, not many could cover one another's butts with the heavily margin monies. Default city X 10. So many of these sub-prime mortgages were packaged and sold as 'good', with a nice yield. A lot of lying by the peddlers and failure to verify from buyers. I recall pension funds in Finland and other places one would not think about who found their money 'up in smoke'.
    There will likely by some more banks with problems, but not to the point of a FDIC grab; but with impact to a stock price and withdrawal of deposits. Any of this could be highly modified with 'social media', which was not a concern in 2007 - 2008. Some companies having monies with SVB may have problems. ROKU (online digital streaming) reportedly had $500 million parked at the bank. What will be their fate with this money recovery?
    One may suggest that poor bank management, high interest rates, improper regulatory monitoring and the poor decisions by companies having a concentration of their monies at one bank helped cause a 'perfect storm' for a bank run.
    I feel that the appropriate and timely actions with SVB were performed properly, which should add assurance.
    If you're curious; a list of failed banks 2009 - 2023. I last posted this list in 2010 or there about. Scroll down for names.
    I digress.
    IG bonds will likely find favor until the dust settles. IMHO.

    Those MMKT's. Stagnant yields again this week, as they've hit a plateau; but most still having a yield between 4.2 and 4.5%, unless it's a magic sauce MMKT. Perhaps another bump up in yields when the FED raises rates again.

    --- U.S.$ DOWN -.32% for the week, +.86% YTD

    *** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference.

    --- The NAV's list below had a few small positive moves on Thursday, and of course; big positive price moves on Friday, with exceptions; as yields had large down moves from a flight to safety from the failure of SVB. The longer duration were in favor.


    A good day to you.....
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ---Several selected bond funds returns since October 25, 2022. I'll retain this date, as it is a recent inflection point when bonds began to have positive price moves. We'll need to watch if this was just a 'blip'.

    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.


    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, March 6 - March 10, 2023

    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates and ended the week at 4.46% (flat lined now). The core Fidelity MMKT's have continued a slow creep upward to 4.22%. The holdings of these different funds account for the variances at this time.

    --- AGG = +1.04% / +1.63% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.11% / +1.26% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = +.56% / +.44% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = +.4% / +.91% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +2.27% / +2.05% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +.07% / +1.55% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = -.19% / +.62% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = -.2% / +.46% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = +.97% / +5.15% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +3.63% / +6.6% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +4.48% / +8.98% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +4.63% / +9.92% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -7.% / -11.8% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +10.9% / +16% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = +1.25% / +1.83% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- LQD = +.61% / +1.99% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- BKLN = -.81% / +3.09% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = -1.71% / +.83% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = +.41%/+1.63% (VanEck HY Muni)
    --- MUB = +.67% /+1.04% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = -.33%/+1.29% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = -3.1% / +2.41% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = -4.08% / +3.28% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 4.46% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund

    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022.

    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
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