Asking for a friend....

Baseball_Fan

FARIX, Fulcrum Diversified Absolute Fund...mentioned on the boards in the recent past...did Schwab send out several statements to shareholders of the fund with restated values of the fund on each statement? What if anything should one read into it? I have no idea what that is about but I was a shareholder of IQDAX when I received about a dozen similar statements with restated values from various backwards looking months and a few months later the fund closed and the manager was charged with some kind of malfeasance. NOT saying this is the case here meaning FAIRX, but do wonder what the reason for this is. Any explanations, why would they have to do this? Where is the governance?

Anyone care to comment on AKREX (-29% YTD) or TMSRX (-5.5% YTD) ? Seems to me they were "fan favorites", kind of crickets lately, anyone still holding? Talk amongst yourselves.

Anyone care to comment that Hussy, HSGFX is in fact AHEAD of PRWCX for the past 3 years now? What's that, oh go back more years, ok I get it, I hear you, fair point, but let's see what happens going forward when the CBs globally are not pumping in trillions of dollars and the fund managers need to navigate the markets and invest without the QE.

Got to like the 4.3 2YR CD Schwab, 4.4 3YR, 4.5 5YR...do I hear 5% 5 year? when that happens, I can hear a whooshing sound of folks over 60 bailing on the stonk market and locking in. Thoughts?

CDX IG spread is bigly....what does it mean? lotsa stress in credit markets, can't be good, or do we blast off in big tech names soon with squeeze or does it all go down the sheeeter soon?

Good Health and Good Luck to ALL

Baseball Fan

yogibearbull

As for corrected 1099 from Schwab, several have reported the issue here. Seems to be a Schwab cost-basis recordkeeping issue. But there were no real explanations from Schwab with the corrected 1099, only some vague references that this can happen for many reasons.

FLTDX in August, then again in September.
VCFAX, TRBUX in September
FARIX in September (your OP)

If tax implications of corrections are "small", they may be ignored, IMO (but what do I know?). Keep in mind that the corrected 1099 do go to the IRS.

https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59922/schwab-issued-corrected-1099-in-august

sfnative

I for one would be sorely tempted by guaranteed 5% returns. I once new someone who told me that during the Volcker era she bought very long term fixed income securities of some kind (CDs? Treasurys?) that paid a double-digit rate of interest and enjoyed that for many years, when all other returns were paltry.

JD_co

sfnative said:

I for one would be sorely tempted by guaranteed 5% returns. I once new someone who told me that during the Volcker era she bought very long term fixed income securities of some kind (CDs? Treasurys?) that paid a double-digit rate of interest and enjoyed that for many years, when all other returns were paltry.

I'm thinking to invest in longer-term CDs over the next quarter or two, but keep some cash aside (20%?) in Money Market Funds in case the Stock market really tanks. Or maybe go 100% CDs and take the early withdrawal penalty if need be.

Saw some Morgan Stanley 4.8% 10 year CDs at Fido today, though they are callable. Over 5% is soon to come.

BaluBalu

HSGFX happens to be a long-shot fund per M*

Observant1

"Anyone care to comment on AKREX (-29% YTD) or TMSRX (-5.5% YTD) ? Seems to me they were 'fan favorites', kind of crickets lately, anyone still holding? Talk amongst yourselves."

"Anyone care to comment that Hussy, HSGFX is in fact AHEAD of PRWCX for the past 3 years now? What's that, oh go back more years, ok I get it, I hear you, fair point, but let's see what happens going forward when the CBs globally are not pumping in trillions of dollars and the fund managers need to navigate the markets and invest without the QE."


I don't personally own any of the mentioned funds.
When an investor owns actively-managed funds, they should expect periods of underperfomance.
It usually comes with the territory.
If an investor can't tolerate bouts of underperformace, perhaps they should utilize broad-based index funds instead to capture market returns?
Mr. Hussman anticipated market crashes associated with the dot-com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis.
He's been a perma-bear since the GFC and his funds' long-term performance
was terrible last time I checked (it's been a while).

MikeM

The question on AKREX is a good one. A great fund for it's 1st 10 years with Aker managing. Hasn't been great since Chuck gave up the lead. Maybe this fact is coincidental but it certainly is something to point to. I have owned it for a while, but I am considering a dollar for dollar switch to something else.

BenWP

Our LCG funds are AKREX and BIAWX. The latter is down more than 31% this year, a real disappointment. Both funds show low turnover, so I think the managers don't try to trade around the bad markets. At some point shareholders will bail, probably at the bottom, if one is to believe the received wisdom regarding the poor trading choices of many individual investors. Still holding...

hank

“Anyone care to comment that Hussy, HSGFX is in fact AHEAD of PRWCX for the past 3 years now? What's that, oh go back more years, ok I get it, I hear you, fair point, but let's see what happens going forward when the CBs globally are not pumping in trillions of dollars and the fund managers need to navigate the markets and invest.”

Sure. I’ll comment. HSGFX is a bear market fund. It should surprise no one that the fund has soared in a year in which the S&P has fallen 25% in a mere 6 months and the NASDAQ more than 32% during the same period. If your point is that HSGFX is a better fund than PRWCX over multi-year periods, than you should buy it. However, past performance doesn’t support that.

It is certainly possible we’re entering another Great Depression era during which markets will continue falling for multiple years and than not recover / return to “break-even” for 2 decades - as in the 30s and 40s. If that’s your call, than invest your $$ in bear funds, Personally, I refuse to believe that’s where the U.S. and global economies are heading for the next 20 years. But that’s just my largely uninformed optimistic outlook - perhaps the unfortunate consequence of having watched far too many Louis Rukeyser programs during the 70s, 80s & 90s. Your money. Your call.

Baseball_Fan

@Hank -

I don't believe HSGFX is a bear fund, but does attempt to adjust market exposure due to the market via examining certain metrics, valuations etc. He has been wrongly positioned during the past years primarily because his models didn't account for the Central Banks pumping money into the system. No funds invested their for me now but have to say every time I read his commentary it makes sense, at least to me.

I guess my point was many funds who have received accolades and done well with the wind at their back and some were arguably positioned correctly but still lost investors money due to outside influences...now let's see how they do when that outside influence, the insane largess of the CBs goes away...meaning QT, rate hikes etc. In other words, the tide is going out, who is wearing swim trunks?

Not sure about a Great Depression, I sure hope not, but quite possible, maybe likely an extended malaise ala the Jimmy Carter years...it does seem crazy that many believe rates get hiked, mistake is made, market crashes, then QE and up go the markets again...I'm not certain that will be the case this go round.

Best Regards,

Baseball Fan

LewisBraham

Regarding AKREX, I do think funds that are highly concentrated in a few stocks even when they manage risk reasonably well can be suspect in general simply because it's always a question whether the magic can be repeated once the top picks have run their course. With 100 stocks if one drops off and has to be sold, there are still 99 ones left that can drive returns, and you know managers managed to find more than a few good ones instead of perhaps "The One" that makes the manager famous. That said, it does take courage to stick with one's convictions when there are just a handful of names.
Regarding HSGFX, I think the better option is HSAFX--a much smoother ride.

stayCalm

I read Hussie commentary for many years. Good writer and it all made sense and I was invested with his fund for many years but turned out to be a money loser.

In investing, unfortunately one has to be right and get the timing right too.

AndyJ

M* classifies HSGFX as long-short equity, which from the portfolio, it is. He's basically short the broad market and long his specific picks. If his picks do better than the indices, like this year, it works: up ~ 15% ytd. HSAFX is for sure less volatile, but it's gone nowhere this year, and it's also not available at some brokerages, e.g., Fidelity.

But the redemption fee on top of a transaction fee limits the attractiveness of HSGFX, even in the rare year it works. IMHO, trend-following managed futures funds and inverse funds are a better deal in wipeouts like this year, and there are plenty of options in those categories (OEFs and ETFs) these days.

Mona

AndyJ said:

M* classifies HSGFX as long-short equity, which from the portfolio, it is. He's basically short the broad market and long his specific picks. If his picks do better than the indices, like this year, it works: up ~ 15% ytd. HSAFX is for sure less volatile, but it's gone nowhere this year, and it's also not available at some brokerages, e.g., Fidelity.

But the redemption fee on top of a transaction fee limits the attractiveness of HSGFX, even in the rare year it works. IMHO, trend-following managed futures funds and inverse funds are a better deal in wipeouts like this year, and there are plenty of options in those categories (OEFs and ETFs) these days.

Are PSTIX and PQTIX similar funds to HSGFX?

LewisBraham

@Mona No, those two funds are very different. PQTIX is a managed futures fund that can go long or short entire securities markets—U.S. or Foreign stocks or bonds, commodities or currencies. It follows price trends in these individual markets. HSGFX is U.S. stock focused, owns individual stocks on the long side and shorts the S&P 500. It also factors stock valuations into its decision making as well as price trends. PSTIX Is just a short fund always betting against the market.

hank

I’ll concede that HSGFX is not a bear fund. But if one examines the record they’ll see it hasn’t done well in strong equity markets since inception. It started with a “bang” its first year and money flowed in. That was followed by about a decade of 0% returns - give or take. I hope folks send him some money. If you time it right you’ll move out of his fund and back into more aggressive ones just as the bear comes to an end and markets begin to rise again. Kinda like having your cake and eating it too.

I track PRWCX daily and it appears to have held up relatively well this year compared to other moderate risk funds. Disappointing of course. A function of the markets. I gain some confidence in these markets because Giroux sounds upbeat whenever I hear him talk. And he’s a very smart guy with a fantastic track record.