By now we’re all saturated with this. So, I’ll dispense with links. 75% of my information comes from Bloomberg and 20% from PBS. A bit from the WSJ.
It’s damned complicated in that Ukraine has many Russian speaking residents - particularly in the eastern part and was at one time part of the former Soviet Union. Obviously the citizens have a long history of independence and desire to remain free. And, if there were any doubts, Putin is revealed as the dictator and thug he really is. Damn, anybody who has his political opponents poisoned while living outside the country needs to be taken seriously. The screws are tightening on Russia in a lot of ways. With the Ruble falling and companies like McDonalds shuttering their businesses and pulling out it has to hurt and make the citizens wonder WTF is going on. Of course, their news is censored / government controlled.
I’m not pleased with the public posturing of the U.S. leadership. Hard to pin it down. But the constant refrain of “We can’t do this because Russia may misinterpret and expand the war” while true - would hardly seem to require voicing. Keep your cards closer to the vest. Let them guess. Damn. I don’t want a nuclear war either. On the other hand, we know where a policy of appeasement got us in the 30s. What I suspect (hope) is that we have people inside Russia doing our bidding - both from an intelligence standpoint and also working with Russian dissidents to possibly effect change. Never underestimate the ingenuity of Americans.
So,I do not criticize our actions, intent or capabilities. But I do question the public posturing in that it makes us seem weak and shows too much of our hand. God help the people of Ukraine.
Comments
The current situation has made this seventy something reflect on firsthand experiences of the Cold War, the Iron Current, the Berlin Wall, and time spent under the desk during nuclear war drills. Most younger people have little appreciation for some or all of these events. So, maybe we will need to endure living through 21st century versions of them. Many European nations are so far responding strongly -- probably partly due to physical reminders and visceral memories of what they directly experienced in the run up to, during, and in the aftermath of WWII. So far, the US is responding strongly too (somewhat surprisingly so to me).
No complaints from this house about the current level of the US led coalition response. I think there is a chance Putin and Zelinskiy will eventually decide a negotiated settlement is better than watching Ukraine be largely destroyed if the war grinds on. If not, can the coalition maintain it's cohesiveness if the duration of the war requires that? If not, Putin will probably eventually win if the people of Russia are willing to suffer long enough to let that happen. But, can/should NATO countries keep from becoming more directly involved if the level of atrocities increases substantially? If not -- and I suspect that will probably prove to be the case -- the current turmoil caused by this war may seem minor in comparison to what follows.
"... and that will be only the beginning."
Yes, that's exactly what I meant.
This is a toughie because I hate war. I particularly hate the half-ass clean war, police action worthlessness we've been engaging in since Korea and up until Afghanistan. All we've bought with trillions of dollars are wounded and dead Americans and no geopolitical gains.
Do you know what war is? It means you kill everything that moves, including the women and children, dogs, cats, sheep and cattle and even the goldfish. If it doesn't move, you blow it up. You keep doing this until your enemy unconditionally surrenders. Think Dresden, Hiroshima, Nagasaki.
Let that sink in. Wow. This is nasty. The nastiest pastime we humans have come up with. War is evil. But sometimes inevitable. If you cannot stomach the thought of war, you will want to invite your enemy for dinner and have them bring the kids.
I would much prefer to bring all our troops home and defend the shores. You could save $500B a year and still upgrade the technology, trained and readiness of our military. The money saved could go for universal health care and education for if the truth be known, our first line of defense is a healthy and educated populace.
As for Ukraine, I heard one retired defense guy put it, 'it's like the dog chasing a car. what do you do when you catch it?'
This is already a 'cause celebre' and volunteers are coming from all over the world. Wali is headed from Canada and apparently, the Canadians have so many, they've formed a battalion. This is going to the eternal guerilla war from hell, IFF Vlad doesn't escalate and bring in NATO.
Ratshit.
S/Sgt Rono, Admin Chief, CoA, 1stReconBn, 1stMarDiv, Danang Mar68-Nov69
After that, it's a matter of time until Russia determines which country is going to be next on it's list. Some time or some place NATO is going to be forced to actively engage. A day or two after US forces are focused on that situation China will use the distraction as cover to invade Taiwan. WW III.
Game Over.
Makes you wonder why we spend billions on weapons too terrible to ever be used.
I also think there’s still hope for the struggling “Off Topic” section when Barron’s latches on to one of the topics being discussed here and uses it for their cover story.
"Some time or some place NATO is going to be forced to actively engage."
And I've just run across this from a current Associated Press article. Some excerpts: So, there's a bit of clarification on possible "places". Add Sweden and Finland to Lithuania, which is already a NATO member and is next to, and forms the border of, the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad- Russia's militarized outpost on the Baltic Sea. Lithuania declared a state of emergency Thursday afternoon due to the situation in Ukraine.
Other NATO states contiguous to Russia or Ukraine include Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania, all of which were former Russian captive states, and undoubtedly on Putin's list of territory to be "reclaimed". Plenty of room for NATO trouble.
Russia warns U.S. over arms shipments to Ukraine
Thanks for the link (I think). I’d half forgotten deranged Putin might be getting ready to target Americans serving / working with NATO in Europe..
Pogo reigns again …
For what possible reason at this point?
Still, it sounds like Putin would not be adverse to a NATO country getting involved if he felt he could thereby halt the flow of Stinger missiles and other armaments into Ukraine from the western alliance.
From what I gather on scattered media reports, the NATO countries, including the U.S., are ramping up procurement and delivery of lethal arms to Ukraine and these are slowing the Rusdian advance and resulting in heavy loss of life on Russia’s end.
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Below are extensive excerpts from a current article in The Economist. The article focuses on the parallels with the Soviet Union under Stalin. I've seriously abridged the article to include some of the more serious points that it makes.
Of those points, I think that this is one of the most important: "American army doctrine says that to face down an insurgency—in this case, one backed by NATO—occupiers need 20 to 25 soldiers per 1,000 people; Russia has a little over four."
‘Things Will Only Get Worse.’ Putin’s War Sends Russians Into Exile-
"Thousands of Russians saw their comfortable, middle-class lives fade overnight with the invasion ordered by President Vladimir V. Putin. While the exodus of about 2.7 million Ukrainians from their war-torn country has focused the world on a burgeoning humanitarian crisis, the descent of Russia into new depths of authoritarianism has many Russians despairing of their future."
Or just “ho-hum”?
Yes - this is being discussed on the “On Topic” board as well. I’d prefer to flaunt my ignorance of such matters here.
Like people everywhere, individual Russians out in the hustings come up against what's happening and throw up their arms in impotent disgust, or else they jump on the bandwagon in support of the Criminal Pootin. Like with Marcos in the old days in the Philippines. He was a scumbag, but "he's OUR scumbag." He was a corrupt pig, but he did favors for SOME, and ingratiated himself within those circles. There is even still today an element in the P.I that longs for another iteration of Marcos. And his son is campaigning for President. A tax criminal. But no one will do anything about it....
So, Russians can't get out of their own way, because collectively, they cannot imagine anything better. Or they reject other prospects as unrealistic. REMIND YOU OF ANYWHERE ELSE????????? Does it remind you of EVERYWHERE else?????
A Berlin Airlift rescue is called for, now. It's even rather late, already. Western leaders are cowed, not wanting to poke The Bear. Screw the Bear. It's time to kill the Bear. Violence is all THAT Bear understands. he must be stood up to. And it's not happening.
I vote for The Dude in 2024. Jeffrey Lebowski. "This aggression will not stand, man!" "You see what happens, Larry? You see what happens when you...............???!!!"
You who get your panties in a bunch over 4-letter words might want to skip this clip from the film:
Ukraine replaced Covid as their big “audience pull.” That will work until some celebrity figure says something stupid or gets into legal trouble, at which time the war in Ukraine will be forgotten. Bloomberg TV and Radio are about all I have for current information. Of course, the WSJ also covers the story - but with the necessary time delay. And what PBS covers on their newscasts is very good.
I remember (1950s) when many folks in the neighborhood regularly maintained underground bomb shelters in their homes, supplied with stores of food and water. Radios had 2 required “Conelrad” markings on the dial where the government could transmit information in case of attack.
It is my impression Russian autocrats are expected to win the wars they wage if they expect to retain power. One option that might achieve that goal is for him to negotiate a settlement where he makes meaningful strategic gains that can be solidified by agreement and that can be sold as a victory to a sufficiently large percentage of prominent and everyday Russians. It doesn't seem to me that an increased level of ongoing hardship for the Russian population would much matter to him in that case. Freeing Russia from "corrupting outside influences" would make that a small price to pay. Another option is to achieve that goal with more limited gains but without an agreement. Achieving either of those options may require extending the war for a substantial period of time. But, extending the war may result in cracks in the resolve of the coalition that opposes him.
It is my sense he sees it to be his duty to restore Russia to his vision of its "rightful" place in the world. I doubt if he will accept defeat and go peacefully into the night. He might eventually be taken out from within. But, if not, here are a couple of worrisome things I am currently thinking about. Might a limited version of WWIII eventually appear necessary to him at some point? And, somewhat related to that, is there a strong likelihood he would continue to refrain from even very limited use of tactical nuclear weapons? (It is my understanding Russia probably has a 10 to 1 superiority in those weapons.) There is reason to wonder if he might not since Putin has defined the current situation as one in which, in line with the principles of its deterrence policy, Russia retains the right to use nuclear weapons. Just thinking....
https://news.yahoo.com/us-journalist-brent-renaud-killed-164947506.html
Putin Isn’t Just an Autocrat. He’s Something Worse.
Putin’s War on Ukraine Is About Ethnicity and Empire
“From each according to his means … And to each according to his needs.”
Or has Karl Marx been disavowed?
Russian Yachts