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Selling or buying the dip ?!

I just checked futures & they appear to be down more than I would expect. Although it's the day after triple witching (?) & this maybe playing into the drop. I'm holding for the near future.
Trying to stay Kool, Derf
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Comments

  • @Derf,

    Evergrande, Chinese property development co likely having a Lehman moment...alledegedly shady business practices...contagion? Germany exports a great deal to China...what happens to Europe? Tax increases on the horizon...supply chain disruptions up the ying yang...transiory inflation...sure, will you swallow what they are feeding you? Have you bought groceries lately? Drive by a Honda dealer, there are like 5 cars on the lot for sale. Will Powell be forced to raise rates...taper....nah that won't happen...will it?

    What's your hurry to jump in at a couple points discount?

    Wait till the reall kaka show starts...

    Of course I am certain I do NOT know what will happen.

    Good Luck, Good Health and Good Investing to all!

    Baseball Fan
  • @Baseball_Fan : All good points you made ! No telling how far the dip-pity do ?!
  • What's really concerning with the Chinese property manager fiasco...my understanding and it could be very wrong is that the Chinese have a lot of their wealth tied up in real estate. When that bubble which is likely much larger than usa re bubble goes Wham-O, what are the aftershocks going to be?

    Get your popcorn ready and enjoy the show

    Baseball Fan

  • I think the next few weeks will be very interesting -- much of the drama will be coming out of DC and i suspect the markets will 'look' for a reason to pull back ... debt ceiling, BIF, reconciliation, gridlock, pandemic, Fed taper timeline, etc, etc. So I'm watching and nibbling as necessary.
  • Modest drops in the broad market like today always have me looking at things I'd like to incrementally add to and rarely at things to sell. Sometimes I snack a bit but usually not.
  • edited September 20
    Got a shopping list and some cash for buying, but I'm nowhere near ready to go for any of it yet.

    A non-equity interest today: what will high yield rates and structured credit look like at the end of the day? I have a lot of the latter and also think the response in those markets will hint at how broad and deep this equity selloff will go. (HYG is down 0.4% so far.)
  • Nibbling. "Wait til the real kaka show starts..." per Baseball Fan about sums it up.
  • Only buying if we hit legit correction. I went 30% cash some time ago; just moved some small caps to investment grade bonds last week. I can wait.
  • bot a lot of VONG near the lows today, will ponder any exit strategy as I read new data
  • edited September 20
    Fed is meeting this week on tapering. Employment is reporting this week. News from Asia is not encouraging. So I will wait patiently.
  • edited September 20
    Added
    SOXL (ship shortage expect for ~ 24 more months)
    Vang2045
    BRK.B
    SHIBA-USD
  • @johnN: whatever is SHIBA-USD? SOXL: now you’re talking serious volatility.
  • edited September 20
    Agree with the sentiment here that the major indexes are expensive - probably in bubble territory. Generally, I don’t try to time markets. Have owned a small slug of DOG for about a month as a meager life-raft of sorts. Sold about 20% of that position today. Would continue scaling out if market carnage persists.

    Barron’s had a great article over the weekend on 5 mining companies they think represent good value longer term. All have been recently damaged by China’s slowdown which has resulted in a lessening in the demand for steel. Take your pick. All 5 have low PEs, little or no debt, good management. NGLOY was my pick. It fell 8% Friday and 7% more early today before I bought a small slice for my “real assets” sleeve.

    As I noted in May, commodities / resource stocks had been bid up too high on overreaction to inflation fears. While some areas of the commodities / resources complex remain high (ie energy, real estate), I think (per the Barron’s piece) that there is value now in some parts of that broader complex - for longer term, patient investors.
  • @BenWP - from what I've been able to find:

    What is SHIBA INU

    From its inception, Shiba Inu has done things differently. Starting with a supply of 1 quadrillion, Shiba Inu founder, Ryoshi, locked 50% in Uniswap, then “burned” the other half to Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin for safekeeping.

    To help reverse the devastating spread of Covid-19 in India, VB has since utilized SHIB in the largest crypto donation in history, and then actually burned 40% of its total supply to a dead wallet, ensuring Shiba Inu long-term success and stability.

    Google SHIBA-USD for more info if you want.
  • edited September 20
    Rebalanced a bit over a month ago as everything appeared quite expensive. Looked foolish at that time. Now the bond positions are holding up very well. Think there is more uncertainties and downsides coming. Having cash is good these days.
  • edited September 20
    Sorry folks
    Extremely busy today w work

    Shib-usd extremely volatile. Can gain 30% one day but loose 40% next day
    Just 0.5% portfolio play monies

    Feel going vegas sometimes
  • Nothing wrong with that as long as you don't get carried away!
  • edited September 21
    The venerable Art Cashin introduced me years ago to the concept of "an orderly sell-off."

    That's what Monday's action looked like to me so I added to AAPL, AMZN and MSFT just prior to the close.

    Ah, at least one other person saw it the same way and offered an interesting metric...
    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/stocks-fall-options-traders-show-185553962.html

    And OBTW, Monday's drop was not a stand alone event. It came on the heels of a coupla DOWN weeks and was highlighted by the S&P blowing through its 50-day MA. So yeah, of course as a LT investor I added on Monday.
  • I'm seeing GREEN futures 7:06 CDT
    Derf
  • Thanks, @Mark. The stuff I learn here passeth [my] understanding.
  • Yeah I don't get it either @BenWP.
  • sold all vong and cape

    will buy back in later
  • It was all just another brief tease before the next leg up.
  • I sold quite a few funds on 9/3/2021 to avoid a Labor Day decline. Since I appear to be a contrarian indicator, my sales were a sign to buy more!
  • MCSMX Purchasing a toe hold as fund is down a couple of bucks from 52 week high.
    I'll keep an eye on as two fairly new managers since 2020.
    Derf
  • Feels like big pharma is down. Sector opportunity? BMY, MRK, ABBV, JNJ.

    Sold some HEGD and MWFSX.
  • Pharma plays are FPHAX and PJP etf.
  • edited September 25
    From the pen of Randall Forsyth this week …

    “You get off a roller coaster the same place you get on, which pretty well describes the week just past. After a nearly 2% plunge Monday, the major U.S. stock indexes ended the week at or a bit above where they had landed the previous Friday. All of which attests to the persistence of the BTFD (for “buy the dip”—you fill in the missing modifier) sentiment …”

    (emphasis mine)

    Barron’s September 27, 2021
  • edited September 26
    There must be some phenomenon market pundits have not been able to explain that is causing an overriding sentiment to keep the market in an upward trajectory and they are describing the symptom (BTD) as the cause. We have not really had any meaningful dips in 10 - 11 months. Some of the so called dips during this period have been for wrong reasons. E.g., the late Jan dip. But there was no equivalent dip for the Archegos blow up which caught a couple of large international banks flat footed and resulted in many times more losses for Archegos than for Melvin in late Jan. Whoever figures out that unexplained / unpublished cause for the relentless upward trajectory makes a lot of money for the correct length of time in the market and suffers no FOMO or TINA along the way. A lot of people make money in the market but only a few make it for the right reasons.
  • edited September 26
    "There must be some phenomenon market pundits have not been able to explain that is causing an overriding sentiment to keep the market in an upward trajectory and they are describing the symptom (BTD) as the cause."

    No need to look for a phenomenon.

    The list is pretty endless, and somewhat obvious.

    Thinking out loud in no particular order...

    1. Liquidity - a FED juiced market
    2. Most bonds ain't worth the risk
    3. Endless supply of new money - trillions of dollars on the sidelines
    4. Inflation - while others worried/worry about it, we reallocated higher %'s to stocks starting late 2020 (We weren't/aren't alone in that strategy
    5. Duh, the US stock markets have historically been/are still the best investments on the planet
    6. Oh those millenials https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/hard-bearish-stock-market-risk-121500864.html
    7. Add any of a number of other reasons

    Alternatively...
    https://fifthperson.com/why-the-stock-market-keeps-rising/
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