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Why a bigger Mega Millions and Powerball jackpot can be the worst time to buy a lottery ticket
Aside from the behavioral aspect (the number of participants is driven by the size of the prize), this is essentially the "birthday problem". As the number of people in a room increase, the probability of two having the same birthday (or picking the same lottery numbers) grows exponentially.
Since the odds are so ridiculous no matter what the size of the jackpot, it's strictly a matter of luck anyhow. "Improving the odds" by only betting on a smaller pool borders on the absurd. If you're going to take a chance on a random strike of fate, why not go for the big ones?
There's a real difference between walking by a slot machine and just for the hell of it playing that quarter which is wearing out your pocket, and standing in front of slots for 6 hours continuously feeding three of them at a time and hoping to come out ahead.
My parents carried Puritanical anti- gambling attitudes from their parents (one grandfather ran for office on the Prohibitionist ticket) into raising me and my siblings. I have a prejudice against lotteries, probably ingrained. Without pre-judging buyers of lottery tickets as a group, it still seems to me that lotteries are a tax on the poor. In MI, despite pious promises during the campaign leading to the legalization of a lottery, public education in MI has not benefited from increased funding. HGTV runs a dreadful program on which the host shows houses for sale to lottery winners who now can afford to go upscale. Yuck.
I used to buy one ticket when the jackpot got big just for the fun of it. I quit after my husband started buying them for me. He just couldn't buy just one but would purchase 5 or 10. Somehow it wasn't fun anymore for me.
Comments
https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-birthday-paradox/
There's a real difference between walking by a slot machine and just for the hell of it playing that quarter which is wearing out your pocket, and standing in front of slots for 6 hours continuously feeding three of them at a time and hoping to come out ahead.