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What The Hell Is The Stock Market Doing? Cullen Roche
dont know, but many people will laughing their ways to the bank today. I think many near retirements may bail out soon [if close to end 2018 or 2019 highs soon 27s or 28k]
Just like they were nose diving down late Feb/Early-mid March, now it heading steadily up since March 21. Think market getting drunk w/ Feds pumping money/kool-laids with new monies [just like the folks at the beaches last wkend]
Maybe oversold /end of bear market past few wks/momths imho plus good news w biotechnology sectors w vaccines designed developments
Perhaps it's the nature of my individual stock holdings, but they all went up significantly (except for BMY), but the volume was only about 75% of their 3 month average. A lack of conviction?
Nah...just pumping and dumping going on...be careful out there.
Why does it seem that every Joe that's involved with going on TV to enlighten us re the virus has a vested financial interest...why do they not disclose this?
Obviously contributors so far have prefer not to read the links provided.
@LewisBraham, @Baseball_Fan seem to have spent too much time listen to squawk-box etc. and I get their reaction to the thread's heading and their unsubstantial comments.
These links are more about the $4 Trillion in stimulus provide by the Fed. Four times larger than the QE1 & QE2 Stimulus. The Fed is definitely attempting to price up stocks, plan and simple.
If there is one cliche from the "read and listen" it would be, "Don't fight the Fed!"
Oil popped around 10% today. PRNEX (Nat. Resources / Energy heavy) was up 6%. But you’d still be deep underwater if you’d bought it start of year. Weird - but I read they were giving oil away for nothing only a couple weeks ago. It’s north of $30 now. Suspect that’s what they call a climatic market bottom. Another one that popped today was DODGX - up 5.32%. At first I thought maybe they’d consumed the vaccine, but than I remembered they’ve been overweight energy for the past year. Really - you never can tell. The recent action in oil suggests we should always remain fluid.
fluid. PUN? LOL. Anyhow, I'm pleased. I don't trade, and when I add, it's to a bond fund. So, this is not a good time to buy bonds? I'm d-c-a-ing, anyhow, over a very long haul. ... My domestic smid-caps PRDSX outdid everything else, today, Monday.
Hi @bee, just wanted to clarify that I did indeed read the SA article authored by Mr Roche that you posted, do appreciate you posting it, I just got caught up in the pump and dump market action yesterday.
My reply to the article would be...
"The New York Fed purchases Treasury securities in order to support the smooth functioning of the Treasury market, as directed by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). These purchases are conducted in the secondary market for Treasury securities."
On March 19th they were purchasing $75B/day of securities and have faded it to $6B/day....(you can easily look this up they put out a schedule) trend is "tightening", I did say trend not net...so I don't see how other than the big tech's who are actually growing revenue, earnings and share how most other publicly traded companies and thus the mutual funds who invest in them can continue to gain value without the fed's backstop so I disagree with Mr. Roche. Also, just because Powell is jawboning the markets higher does NOT mean there is no risk!
Full Disclosure: I'm very conservatively positioned and have been for a long time, ~95% cash / US Treasury money market, CDs, Tbills, I bonds.
I'm just pissed my conservative income portfolio in my IRA is doing worse than S&P 500. I guess I don't know what it means to be conservative. It would seem I should have been in LG funds
LG is where it's at for true growth. Check BIAWX. It's not "conservative" to own that sort of fund, but when Mr. Market is rising, they rise damn well. When Mr. Market falls, those high-fliers fall hard.
Not seeing many bullish investment advisors / pundits across the media landscape. Droning Mohamed El-Erian drives me nuts on Bloomberg TV mornings. Makes you sorry you got out of bed some days. Stan Druckenmiller is one I’ve always respected. Smart investor. Serious bear now. Bill Fleckenstein’s been bearish on equities for long as I can remember - but likes gold. Barron’s is a mixed bag - but articles lean toward the bearish side now.
What’s the opposite of “pump and dump ”? Maybe “dump and pump ”? Or “dump and jump”? Might be some of that going on.
Yeah. Trying to see any args against all VONG all the time; slicing and comparing past subsample periods and all that.
VONG started later than the awful late summer of 08 and on to the April 2010 recovery, but taking TRBCX as a sort-of proxy (it performs slightly better than VONG, and yes, has holdings in the low hundreds as opposed to the low 500s), it is only from Aug 08 to Feb 09 that LG underperforms SP500, and by a nontrivial gap, like 10%. But then back to even, after that brutal half-year.
Add Larry Summers to the the bear camp. He’s on Bloomberg a lot. Larry’s somber tone resembles El-Erin’s, though they are birds of a different feather. El-Elian earned his stripes at Pimco. Memory has it that he and Gross were sometimes at loggerheads and did not part amicably. Summers hails from academia and has held cabinet level government positions.
I see macro-economics front and center in most of this financial mumbo-jumbo today. Coronavirus, temporary high unemployment, diminished consumer spending, hotel / transportation on edge of bankruptcy, possible debt downgrades, trade tensions with China, election year uncertainty and, lastly, ultra-low interest rates coupled with massive government cash infusions. I don’t have a lot of success in reading macro tea-leaves. But among the choices above, I’m fixating more on the last couple.
Idea: Might be too much work, but a couple ongoing threads titled “Bullish Gurus” and “Bearish Gurus” would allow folks to keep posting links referencing both positive and negative market sentiment.
Lyn Alden Schwartzer's May 19 article, "First Liquidity, Then Solvency," is a brief, detailed and chart-laden description of today's economy and market.
"Does it get better from here, or is this a big fake-out for another round of selling as we move deeper into this year? ...
"The next several years are likely to be challenging for many companies with weak balance sheets, so make sure you know what you own.
"...the top 5 mega-cap stocks have held up the major American stock market indices like Atlas holding up the world, and reached levels of concentration not seen in nearly four decades."
"...policymakers around the world can't afford to let a massive deflationary economic collapse occur, and for millions and millions of people to be unable to afford the necessities of life and for half of large companies to go out of business, so they will be forced to keep the stimulus taps open, funded with printed money, with a willingness to devalue currency to avoid the worst case economic scenario."
“ policymakers around the world can't afford to let a massive deflationary economic collapse occur, and for millions and millions of people to be unable to afford the necessities of life and for half of large companies to go out of business, so they will be forced to keep the stimulus taps open, funded with printed money, with a willingness to devalue currency to avoid the worst case economic scenario."
Investors should keep in mind that the above is just one possible scenario. So if you bet on it by loading up on risk assets and instead global economies fall into the dumpster for the next decade, you'll lose a lot of money. Probably would have been better off in AAA bonds.
Listened to Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital on Bloomberg today. I thought he missed the “mark” a little. In addressing the steep equity valuations today Marks painted 2 possible outcomes: (1) A near term sharp retrenchment in equity valuations or (2) Continued CB easing and government stimulus which may keep equities / risk assets “levitated” for many years before they finally fall back to earth. (But possibly Bloomberg edited out other pertinent commentary.)
There is a 3rd proposition, which Schwartzer seems to address: Paper currencies will steadily erode in purchasing power owing to all the easy money & repeated government stimulus around the world so that the seemingly high valuations today may appear cheap in a decade or so. In other words, in a decade from now you may be glad you owned some of today’s “bloated” equities. I think we tend to underestimate the slow steady effect of inflation on our standard of living and on our investments.
“The fog creeps in on little cat feet.” - Carl Sandburg
Comments
Just like they were nose diving down late Feb/Early-mid March, now it heading steadily up since March 21.
Think market getting drunk w/ Feds pumping money/kool-laids with new monies [just like the folks at the beaches last wkend]
Maybe oversold /end of bear market past few wks/momths imho plus good news w biotechnology sectors w vaccines designed developments
Why does it seem that every Joe that's involved with going on TV to enlighten us re the virus has a vested financial interest...why do they not disclose this?
Baseball fan
@LewisBraham, @Baseball_Fan seem to have spent too much time listen to squawk-box etc. and I get their reaction to the thread's heading and their unsubstantial comments.
These links are more about the $4 Trillion in stimulus provide by the Fed. Four times larger than the QE1 & QE2 Stimulus. The Fed is definitely attempting to price up stocks, plan and simple.
If there is one cliche from the "read and listen" it would be, "Don't fight the Fed!"
My reply to the article would be...
"The New York Fed purchases Treasury securities in order to support the smooth functioning of the Treasury market, as directed by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). These purchases are conducted in the secondary market for Treasury securities."
On March 19th they were purchasing $75B/day of securities and have faded it to $6B/day....(you can easily look this up they put out a schedule) trend is "tightening", I did say trend not net...so I don't see how other than the big tech's who are actually growing revenue, earnings and share how most other publicly traded companies and thus the mutual funds who invest in them can continue to gain value without the fed's backstop so I disagree with Mr. Roche. Also, just because Powell is jawboning the markets higher does NOT mean there is no risk!
Full Disclosure: I'm very conservatively positioned and have been for a long time, ~95% cash / US Treasury money market, CDs, Tbills, I bonds.
Posting for entertainment purposes only.
Stay well, best regards to all, Baseball Fan
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-even-think-of-owning-stocks-unless-youre-willing-to-buy-and-hold-for-this-many-years-2020-05-19
What’s the opposite of “pump and dump ”? Maybe “dump and pump ”? Or “dump and jump”? Might be some of that going on.
VONG started later than the awful late summer of 08 and on to the April 2010 recovery, but taking TRBCX as a sort-of proxy (it performs slightly better than VONG, and yes, has holdings in the low hundreds as opposed to the low 500s), it is only from Aug 08 to Feb 09 that LG underperforms SP500, and by a nontrivial gap, like 10%. But then back to even, after that brutal half-year.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/why-the-economy-is-headed-for-a-post-coronavirus-depression-nouriel-roubini.html
I see macro-economics front and center in most of this financial mumbo-jumbo today. Coronavirus, temporary high unemployment, diminished consumer spending, hotel / transportation on edge of bankruptcy, possible debt downgrades, trade tensions with China, election year uncertainty and, lastly, ultra-low interest rates coupled with massive government cash infusions. I don’t have a lot of success in reading macro tea-leaves. But among the choices above, I’m fixating more on the last couple.
Idea: Might be too much work, but a couple ongoing threads titled “Bullish Gurus” and “Bearish Gurus” would allow folks to keep posting links referencing both positive and negative market sentiment.
Lyn Alden Schwartzer's May 19 article, "First Liquidity, Then Solvency," is a brief, detailed and chart-laden description of today's economy and market.
"Does it get better from here, or is this a big fake-out for another round of selling as we move deeper into this year? ...
"The next several years are likely to be challenging for many companies with weak balance sheets, so make sure you know what you own.
"...the top 5 mega-cap stocks have held up the major American stock market indices like Atlas holding up the world, and reached levels of concentration not seen in nearly four decades."
"...policymakers around the world can't afford to let a massive deflationary economic collapse occur, and for millions and millions of people to be unable to afford the necessities of life and for half of large companies to go out of business, so they will be forced to keep the stimulus taps open, funded with printed money, with a willingness to devalue currency to avoid the worst case economic scenario."
Lyn Alden Schwartzer's May 19 article
“ policymakers around the world can't afford to let a massive deflationary economic collapse occur, and for millions and millions of people to be unable to afford the necessities of life and for half of large companies to go out of business, so they will be forced to keep the stimulus taps open, funded with printed money, with a willingness to devalue currency to avoid the worst case economic scenario."
Investors should keep in mind that the above is just one possible scenario. So if you bet on it by loading up on risk assets and instead global economies fall into the dumpster for the next decade, you'll lose a lot of money. Probably would have been better off in AAA bonds.
Listened to Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital on Bloomberg today. I thought he missed the “mark” a little. In addressing the steep equity valuations today Marks painted 2 possible outcomes: (1) A near term sharp retrenchment in equity valuations or (2) Continued CB easing and government stimulus which may keep equities / risk assets “levitated” for many years before they finally fall back to earth. (But possibly Bloomberg edited out other pertinent commentary.)
There is a 3rd proposition, which Schwartzer seems to address: Paper currencies will steadily erode in purchasing power owing to all the easy money & repeated government stimulus around the world so that the seemingly high valuations today may appear cheap in a decade or so. In other words, in a decade from now you may be glad you owned some of today’s “bloated” equities. I think we tend to underestimate the slow steady effect of inflation on our standard of living and on our investments.
“The fog creeps in on little cat feet.” - Carl Sandburg