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BUY - SELL - HOLD - September

Hi guys,
Have added to ROGSX, UMBMX, BTBFX and CIPMX several times in August. Also have started a new position in PRDGX. Still sitting on a lot of cash. I'm willing to wait. The market is just too iffy right now. With September and October coming, will add if we get pull back.
God bless
the Pudd
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Comments

  • edited September 2019
    Old_Skeet's market barometer which follows the S&P 500 Index currently rates the Index a hold as we enter September with a reading of 148 which falls in the fair value range on the barometer's scale. Currently, I'm invested within the allowable parameters of my portfolio's asset allocation and carrying an overweight in equities of 5%. I make equity weighting adjustments as I feel warranted, from time to time, based upon my barometer's reading which drives an equity weighting matrix which I use to assist me in setting my portfolio's weighting in equities.

    The three calls the barometer makes, for me, are accumulate, hold and trim.
  • edited September 2019
    Wiped out last month after 2018 tax revisions..paid so much more taxations... Also market downturns in aug19

    Added few bonds last month. Also added to vgstx and Vanguard prime cap core. Have divs coming this wk unclear what to expect or do next

    For mama portfolio added more Fbnd and lsbrx Loomis Sayles bond fund... Gain 0.7%during the large downside pull back wk in Aug.
  • edited September 2019
    J P Morgan says now is the time to add risk back into your portfolio and buy stocks. You can read more about this in the below linked article.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-02/jpmorgan-says-it-s-finally-time-to-buy-stocks-despite-trade-woes

  • And just a few weeks ago they were saying it was a "risk-off" time and coming into a rocky period. You'd have better investing success throwing darts than listening to these folks .... who are probably throwing darts anyway!
    Old_Skeet said:

    J P Morgan says now is the time to add risk back into your portfolio and buy stocks. You can read more about this in the below linked article.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-02/jpmorgan-says-it-s-finally-time-to-buy-stocks-despite-trade-woes

  • Aw, c'mon.. play fair! You're not supposed to remember that far back.

  • Oh, sorry. I am showing my age (46) again!
    Old_Joe said:

    Aw, c'mon.. play fair! You're not supposed to remember that far back.

  • Ya, as we all know, trading is not the same as investing.
  • edited September 2019
    Hi rforno,

    I'm not sure the comment you are referencing was made by J P Morgan. But, it could have been.

    In doing a look back in my post here is what I came up with on another J P Morgan post that I made back on February 7th. It is titled ... "Bost Your Risk Positions and Unwind Those Hedges. I have linked it below for your reading enjoyment.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-07/jpmorgan-says-boost-your-risk-postions-and-unwind-those-hedges

    And, here is another post I made concerning J P Morgan on August 9th. It is titled ... "Hold on Tight and Buy This Market Dip." I have linked the referenced article below for your easy access.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/08/jp-morgans-top-stock-market-analysts-say-hold-on-tight-and-buy-this-market-dip.html
  • edited September 2019
    For my brokerage portfolio - Just added more Vanguard prime cap core, Vti, and vwo in private portfolio yesterday.
    Added very little O and Dre Duke realty
    Tsp still 80/20

    Mama portfolio - got cash from divs and added more Fbnd
  • For my very conservative withdrawal bucket which I'm building for future use, I added an ultrashort bond fund, ARMZX (actually wanted ZEOIX but it has a TF at Schwab - not doing that) and U-short ETF, FLRN. Thought I'd be renewing CDs, but they are paying very little again.
  • edited September 2019
    Old_Skeet said:

    J P Morgan says now is the time to add risk back into your portfolio and buy stocks. You can read more about this in the below linked article.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-02/jpmorgan-says-it-s-finally-time-to-buy-stocks-despite-trade-woes

    Not sure if you're a Twitter user, but Liz Ann Sonders lays things out in a data-rich set of charts in a way you wont even see within the Schwab website.

    Her latest charts of the ISM mfg index wouldn't lend itself to a risk on play.

  • @PRESSmUP made a valid point. Below is the link to her account page.

    NO, you do not need to have an account to read any pages.

    "Click" in the white area around a particular tweet to read responses. When finished with read any responses, click to "X" at the upper right to close that item. One may then continue to scroll down to view whichever other posts may be of interest.

    Twitter.............to discover any other account; using your favorite search, merely type the name of the person followed by twit............. i.e., Josh Brown twit Ray Dalio twit etc. The search, of course; will provide a choices list. Once you've clicked to open the choice, if the account is private, this info will be displayed.
    The majority of names one discovers in the investment world have open and active accounts to read. Have some fun; if you have enough hours in the day remaining.

    Liz Ann Sonders Twitter

    Have a good remainder,
    Catch
  • @PRESSmUP and @catch22, Agree. Info on her Twitter are more concise than the longer articles she presented in Schwab.
    Today the market is up (risk off) since China and US agree to talk again in October.
    No major change on our end.
  • edited September 2019
    Oh ... Where is Jeffrey Saut? Seems, Raymond James retired him! Wonder what his thoughts are?

    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/08/09/strategist-the-lows-are-in-for-the-us-market.html

    For now ... I'm going to roll with Saut's thinking.

    Old_Skeet
  • @catch_22: Who you calling a twit? LOL
    @Old-Skeet: I believe Jeff Saut did step down. Big loss.
  • Hi @BenWP
    We're showing our age with knowing the meaning of a "twit", eh???
  • Now that I've made a 3% net profit in my most recent spiff position, (which I opened on August 6th) as of market close September 6th, I plan to cut it loose on Monday as long as the market holds.
  • @Old_Skeet: I don't remember what your spiff play was, but won't you get hit with an early redemption fee ?
    Derf
  • edited September 2019
    @Derf, Nope. I have held the position for more than 30 days. And, these are C shares. However, I'll pay a 1% commission on shares sold held less than 1 year. Like I wrote, I'll net 3% from this trade.
  • @Old_Skeet: Thanks for your reply.
    Derf
  • @Old_Skeet thanks alot for your update. Always helpful to see your barometer. Are you going back to 40% equities now and where are you newly allocating that 5%?
  • @Old_Skeet- Not bad... not bad.
  • Hi Skeeter,
    Yeah, shit ain't what it once was. With the Blonde One, you have to play the game. Buy or sell....the tweet "there is no such thing as a long term investment anymore"......too much money.......IE - QE (worldwide.) Bonds, junk debt with governments....also, as the Dukester says, "Shit knows its own smell." And he would know. The Blonde One will pump this market 'til he wins in 20, then what? Is there a plan? Not sure.....
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • edited September 2019
    @MikeW, For now I'm staying overweight equities by +5% with the overweight being mostly held in equity dividend funds which are a part of the growth & income area of my portfolio. Now being overweight equity (at the max allowed within my asset allocation) is the primary reason I'm closing the spiff. After all, fixed income is paying next to nothing so dividend paying equity looks attractive, to me.

    In short words, I need to trim equity to stay within the confins of my asset allocation. And, based upon Old_Skeet's current market barometer reading (of overvalued for the S&P 500 Index) now is a good time for me to trim. Can stocks go higher in the nearterm? Perhaps ... and, indeed I hope so. However, I look for them to be pretty much news event driven ... and, then there is the FOMC wizards that will also play a part in stock market movement based upon their rate settings.

    For now, I'm still with my thoughts that they went to far and to fast in their recent upward rate increase movement; and, governing against a Presidential request to keep them low while he deals with trade issues. In short words, the FOMC wizards threw stock market investors (and our President) under the bus back in December. After all, and since then, investors have left stocks and moved to bonds with interest rates moving from about 3.25% downward to about 1.5% (US10YrT) as investors sought cover in bonds.

    I know I reduced equities within my portfolio from 50% to 40%, in good part, because of the FOMC's rate increase move; but, also for an aged based rebalance. I would have kept my equity allocation at 50% had the FOMC not been so aggressive with their rate increase campaign. Seems, to me, the head wizard might be heading for a fall should the FOMC stall out the economy more so than the President. From my perspective, most folks realize that we have to somehow deal with China because of their past unfair trade practices.

    And, if our government encourages off shore production, of targeted goods for shipment to the US, be moved to other countries from China ... Well, then so be it. After all, we buy more from them than they buy from us.

    And, make no mistake FOMC wizards ... stall the stock market and consumer spending will decline putting pressure on the economy. After all, consumer spending is what drives our economy. Just this last December, I put off buying a new vehicle because of the decline in the stock market associated with your rate increase campaign. And, to date, I have yet to make this purchase.

    Yep, and again FOMC wizards, in my book you went to far and too fast with your rate increase campaign and also against a Presidential request not to raise rates while our governemnt was dealing with foreign trade issues with China. This put undue pressure on the stock market and the economy. Since we got a new head FOMC wizard, things have not gone well. I sure wish uncle Ben and aunt Janet were still minding the store.
  • edited September 2019
    Hi folks..if you were 20 30 yrs younger (around 30 or 40s yo) what would your portfolio looking like now.. 75-80%equities?!,,, vs if you are 65s yo (? 40s%equities?!) ..

    thx have good Sunday
  • edited September 2019
    I'm 46 and probably 90% of my investment holdings over two significant portfolios are quality dividend-paying, good-moat (in my view) equities. I've got a big pile of cash to be deployed, but I'm not selling stuff these days - I'm looking to buy into crisis - and no, I don't consider my cash to be an investment position per se.
    johnN said:

    Hi folks..if you were 20 30 yrs younger (around 30 or 40s yo) what would your portfolio looking like now.. 75-80%equities?!,,, vs if you are 65s yo (? 40s%equities?!) ..

    thx have good Sunday

  • @rforno- like you, I don't consider our cash positions to be an investment position. I believe that this perspective is not widely shared here on MFO.

    My wife and I each have both pension income and SS income. This income exceeds our normal expenses by a fair amount, with the result that cash holdings tend to increase over time.

    For this reason my spreadsheet keeps separate accounting of designated "cash" positions and investment positions. The investment position aggregate usually does fairly well with respect to the S&P benchmark, but needless to say the cash position income is all but hopeless.

    Because of our age (I just turned 80), and not having a real need for investment income at this stage, I've cut back severely on our investment positions, which previously were quite substantial. Essentially the current investment income is probably just about enough to offset inflation on the combined cash/investment positions. The anticipated decline in the investment positions when the next downturn hits will not be enough to threaten our overall financial situation.
  • Tsp still 80/20..privatw portfolio around 78 22 but has lots hy bonds yield 6s% ytm
  • @Old_Skeet thanks very much for sharing what you are doing.
  • edited September 2019
    Hi guys, I'm not liking what I seeing in checking the naked short volumes for the S&P 500 Index for the past rolling week. About 62% of the total trading volume has been by the naked shorts. With this, I'd say good caution is now warranted. And, I did cash out of my equity spiff position yesterday with a 3.4% profit for which I held for a little better than 30 days. Seems some investors might now be betting against the anticipated FOMC rate cut.

    For now, I continue to ride with about a 5% overweight in equities with the overweight being invested mostly in good dividend paying equity income funds which were not part of the spiff. It will be interesting to see how bond yields move over the next couple of days, perhaps even a few weeks.

    Seems, of late, bond yields have been rising as some investors have sold bonds and moved towards risk on type assets. It also seems there has been good money flow into the Index over the past week. Let's see if this sticks? Interesting? Yes.
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