FYI: Stocks have rallied lately and could end 2018 with modest gains. But it has been a tough year across the asset-class universe: Bonds are in a rut, and losses have piled up in oil, gold, and emerging markets—just about everything.
The scope of negative returns is unusual. According to Deutsche Bank, 89% of the global financial indexes it tracks were negative for the year in dollar terms, through the end of October. On average, 29% of financial markets finish a year with losses. In 2017, a dart-throwing monkey could have made money. Of 71 stock, bond, currency, and commodity indexes tracked by Deutsche Bank, only one ended in negative territory in dollars: the Philippine bond market.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.barrons.com/articles/last-year-investors-couldnt-lose-this-year-they-cant-win-whats-next-1543617074
Comments
Like you, I’m off slightly this year. In recent years my down years were followed by pretty good years. Of course, could be different this time around.
Thanks Derf
For me my near term retruns are much like those that have shared their results. My bogey the lipper balanced index is fairing much like myself and what the others have stated.
Another bogey that I picked up to mark against is Franklin LifeSmart Retirement Fund A (FTRAX). One of the reason I chose this fund for a bogey is that it sports a 4.1% yield which is a little higher yield than my master portfolio at 3.1% but higher than other retirement funds I looked at. As I write, the one, the three, the five and the ten year rolling periods FTRAX has returned 0.52%, 2.83%, 2.42%, and 7.32% respectively. Notice that the funds total return does not cover its yield for the 1, 3 & 5 year periods. This is not good from my perspective; but, it is still a bogey because of its yield. In compairson, my master portfolio sports a current 3.1% yield and its 1, 3, 5 & 10 year rolling total returns are 0.32%, 6.10%, 4.71% & 8.98%. In review, the only period that I have not covered my yield is for the 1 year period.
So if you are in retirement you might wish to review how the portfolio you have assembled is fairing against the tatget-date retirement class of funds. As I write, Morningstar list their collective performance at -0.84%, 3.65% and 3.06% for the rolling 1, 3 & 5 year periods.
Take care,
Old_Skeet
At this point, this year's results don't look all that different from 2015-16, well, except for the lurking probability that we're getting close to the end of a major cycle.
The total market has been up every year (including this year, so far) since 2008.
And checking "BND" at M*, the total bond market is down 1.95% YTD, and the only time since BEFORE 2008 (which was an up-year) bonds were down was in 2013 at -2.10%.
I'm not sure what the concern is. Do most people really think that markets should only go up every year?
Probably not but it is certainly preferred.
Derf
Thanks for your time & good investing to you,
Derf
Derf