Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
FYI: You may be unaware, but so far, the biggest sufferers from the Trade War tariffs have been American Farmers. That is according to Farm Policy News out of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign:
Of course it's the producers of commodity ag products, where exports play a big role, that are getting hurt. On the other hand, farmers who produce food for direct local/regional consumption are doing just fine.
Maybe that'll turn out to be the silver lining of the trade war mess: farmers turning back to agriculture that provides for and benefits local markets.
Well, sorta - Clinton won the popular vote. https://www.cnn.com/2016/12/21/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-popular-vote-final-count/index.html The Electoral College, slanted in the direction of low population density states, elected Trump. I'm not complaining. I prefer the Electoral College to an outright popularity contest likely to produce some razor close vote tabulations, recounts, and a lot of unanticipated problems (IMHO).
The point is that Trump's base of voters may not be as deep as the 2016 outcome suggests (or which he would like us to believe.) I'm not qualified to go into details / rationale re how and why the Electoral College came to be. But, similar to the way Senators are elected, it allows more or less "equal" influence by every state in the Union.
I was fortunate to spend many summers as a kid residing with a number of different farmer-relatives in the fertile Saginaw Valley area of Michigan. These folks were indeed gracious allowing me to spend all that time in their homes and to learn the ways of the farm. Precious memories. But I will say this: religiously, culturally and politically it was one conservative lot. I'd imagine sociologists & political scientists might be able to explain why and how that came to be. I can't.
You both won't be saying that when you go to your neighborhood super market and find nothing on the shelves.
I've been expecting shelves to be overstocked with bargains this year, such as soy beans from Iowa, lobsters from Maine, etc. What else are they going to do with everything that isn't going overseas?
Our glorious leader-for-life said that "trade wars are easy to win", so there shouldn't be any problems. Canada and China should come begging on their knees any day now.
Thanks, @Ted, for making it clear that others were wrong in taking shots at you for how you voted in 2016. You are true to your principles. In 1968 I cast an absentee write-in ballot for my favorite candidate and I learned from a press clipping my father sent me that in our Connecticut town, one vote had been cast for Eugene McCarthy. Don't tell me your vote is not counted in this country.
@BenWP: Well now, you don't know for sure that every vote is counted. There might actually have been two folks in your town who voted for McCarthy. (I did too, by the way.)
And yes, I was wrong to take a shot at Ted without specific knowledge, although he has seemingly been supportive of this administration in many other posts.
Reminds me of an old saying "You can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink." Just sad that they swallow the kool aid and believe the lies.
@MFO Members: Sold beans @$8.81a bushel, last year they sold at $10.20. Unlike corn soybeans don't store well, they must be kept very dry or they will rot. Some nearby Iowa soybean farmer's are taking on the additional cost of storing them in hope of a better price if the Trump China riff blows over. I don't think that going to happen. Regards, Ted
Hi @Old_Joe ... I'm thinking Ted and his family farm and its crew made money. Sure they lost some profit over what they had been making. With most things some years are simply better than others. You might find interest in the below link as it covers the cost of farming soybeans and corn in Illinois. I am also thnking they had some corn and some other producers that offset the soybean losses. I believe that Ted had indicated that they were farming about 1200 acres. Due to the size of the farm I just do not believe that it was planted in a single crop (soybeans).
Illinois is a leading farm income state with corn as its most important crop. Most of the crop is sold as grain and livestock feed but corn is also processed to produce corn syrup, starch and fuel alcohol. Soybeans are the second most farm product, followed by hay, wheat, rye, oats and grain sorghum.
I have a good friend in Texas that leases his land to another for a cut of the production. He indicated that his earnings would be down but he still expected the farm to be profitable. After property taxes are set aside on the land should there be a harvest loss then it is split between landowner and farmer with the farmer suffering the most. Thus far he is expecting a payday as they grow more than a single crop. Their three main crops are cotton, corn and soybeans.
Comments
Regards,
Ted
Regards,
Ted
Maybe that'll turn out to be the silver lining of the trade war mess: farmers turning back to agriculture that provides for and benefits local markets.
Derf
The point is that Trump's base of voters may not be as deep as the 2016 outcome suggests (or which he would like us to believe.) I'm not qualified to go into details / rationale re how and why the Electoral College came to be. But, similar to the way Senators are elected, it allows more or less "equal" influence by every state in the Union.
I was fortunate to spend many summers as a kid residing with a number of different farmer-relatives in the fertile Saginaw Valley area of Michigan. These folks were indeed gracious allowing me to spend all that time in their homes and to learn the ways of the farm. Precious memories. But I will say this: religiously, culturally and politically it was one conservative lot. I'd imagine sociologists & political scientists might be able to explain why and how that came to be. I can't.
Next year is another matter. But I understand from fearless leader that "Tariffs are working far better than anyone expected," so the trade wars will be won soon.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/999880/us-china-trade-war-donald-trump-tariffs-xi-Jinping-china-daily
And yes, I was wrong to take a shot at Ted without specific knowledge, although he has seemingly been supportive of this administration in many other posts.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/01/trump-farmers-trade-900623
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/business/soybeans-farmers-trade-war.html
Derf
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-12/frozen-out-of-china-american-farmers-refuse-to-sell-their-soy
Regards,
Ted
Illinois is a leading farm income state with corn as its most important crop. Most of the crop is sold as grain and livestock feed but corn is also processed to produce corn syrup, starch and fuel alcohol. Soybeans are the second most farm product, followed by hay, wheat, rye, oats and grain sorghum.
https://www.google.com/search?q=Cost+to+growing+soybeans+in+illionis&oq=Cost+to+growing+soybeans+in+illionis&aqs=chrome..69i57j33.20118j0j7&client=tablet-android-alco&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8
I have a good friend in Texas that leases his land to another for a cut of the production. He indicated that his earnings would be down but he still expected the farm to be profitable. After property taxes are set aside on the land should there be a harvest loss then it is split between landowner and farmer with the farmer suffering the most. Thus far he is expecting a payday as they grow more than a single crop. Their three main crops are cotton, corn and soybeans.
Regards,
Ted