What sectors are those with more time and better tools or access finding that’s beaten up and maybe worth consideration as speculative ventures? All I can find are (1) gold - down nearly $200 from recent highs, (2) EM stocks and (3) EM bonds.
The first (gold) is enticing but too much of a gamble. Doesn’t behave like most other assets. And I’m already exposed via other funds which I’m content to sit on.
The second, EM stocks, is still not beaten up enough for me to want to speculate on. In addition, I generally steer clear of any type of equity growth funds, preferring the tamer G&I equity or balanced / allocation funds. (Will go growth when clearly undervalued.)
The third, EM bonds - I shifted some $$ into there a few weeks ago from an investment grade global bond fund. (You can all see how swell that’s going). No desire to dig a deeper hole, though I still think that one will pay off over a few years.
(I suppose that in a generally overvalued market one might make a case for cash or high quality bonds ?)
What am I not seeing in the area of beaten-up / undervalued assets? Thanks for any suggestions.
Comments
Yep - Did well speculating on a Latin America fund couple years ago - buying when it was down something like 50% over 3 or 5 years and selling after a 20-25% run-up a few months later. Heck, didn’t even meet T. Rowe’s 90-day hold. Paid a few % early w/d fee - but who cares with that kind of run-up? Looked again today. But that fund (PRLAX), while beaten-up handsomely, is nowhere near as damaged as than. This type venture is gambling pure and simple. Enjoy it (in small amounts), but don’t recommend it to others.
Another weird day looking at the different markets. Turkey’s obviously still on the platter of many investors. And thanks to @Mark for the thoughts. I’ll chew on them. If anybody else sees opportunities, chime in.
Within my own portfolio I have a few funds that are at least -10% back of their 52 week highs and considered in correction. They are LPEFX (-12.75%) my global business development fund position ... PCLAX (-11.87%) my commodity strategy fund position ... SVAAX (-10.91%) one of my dividend strategy and value fund positions ... and, NEWFX (-10.66%) my emerging market fund position. Overall my portfolio is off its 52 week high by -4.52% which is still in the dip area and approaching the pull back area (-5% to -10%) as of the market close today. A correction would be down better than -10% but less than -20%. Being down -20% or better would be considered recession. In compairson, one of my hybrid balanced funds ABALX is off its 52 week high by -2.4% while one of my hybrid income funds AMECX is off its 52 week high by -5.26%. And, one of my global hybrid funds CAIBX is off its 52 week high by -7.76%.
I have the S&P 500 Index off its 52 week high by -1.78% while I have the Aggregate Bond Index off -3.95%.
https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/markets_sectors/sectors/sectors_in_market.jhtml
XLC top holdings (as of the date of the linked article) = Facebook 20.8%, Alphabet Class C 11.7%, Alphabet Class A 11.6%, AT&T 5.0%, Charter Communications 4.8%, Netflix 4.8%, Comcast 4.7%, Verizon 4.6%, Activision Blizzard 4.6%, and Walt Disney 4.5%.
Tech and discretionary won't be quite the same after the full reclassification. State Street's reworking those two etf's (XLK, XLY) after close on Sept. 21. XLC's been trading since mid-June.
Hope you're doing well.
I concur on gold and the pm's in general. The trend is downward and who knows . . . That said, this is a good time to buy physical bullion if you're an acquirer.
My Asian holdings are all down but feh.
I noted on Mark's link that telecoms were down. Now THAT is interesting as I've long been a fan of owning what you use and for me that's VZ and T. It eases the pain of the monthly bill.
In closing, I would encourage all y'all to 'keep your asses low and your flak jackets close'. The chances of a Black Swan event are significant.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono