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A Dark Grey Swan?? "A Debt Crisis Seems To Have Come Out Of Nowhere"
"Over the last five years a worrisome number of low income countries have racked up so much debt they are now at high risk of being unable to pay it back — with potentially devastating consequences"
"Of the 59 countries the IMF classifies as "low-income developing countries... 24 are now either in a debt crisis or at high risk of tipping into one. That's 40 percent of poor countries... and it's nearly double the number five years ago."
I have tracked news regarding China Belt and Road for about 1 1/2 years. The common theme is access everywhere. Money is given, offered (loaned ?) with a contract of some type. Long term contracts, too; 99 years, not unlike the Brits contract for Hong Kong. Also, many major projects do not find many locals involved in construction (read, no jobs created). Anyway, I believe The Economist has published a story or two about this, too.
Do you recall the thread here years ago when Euroland was still a very large mess; and that the overwhelmed Greeks should offer for sale some of their island and beaches, etc. for sale to China. How about a seaport.
Hopefully, these can be accessed; as both are NYTimes.
Perhaps our house is going to have to consider selling more than corporate bonds (large boat loads of these in the past 2 years). No bonds at this time are reacting to anything to the negative side of investing. Cash gonna be the king??? More stuff floating about for comment, but I gotta run for now. Take care, Catch
@catch22- Hey there Catch- thanks for bumping this into the "Discussions+" category. Because of the potential for bond market disruption I thought that this article mde a good read. With respect to the China Belt and Road, The Economist has covered it in depth for quite a while, and they continue to keep a very watchful eye on it's progress.
@davidrmoran- Based on other reading, I'm inclined (within reason) to come down on the side of the "deficit Owls" as defined in your link piece. As long as the "manufacture" of money is stopped short of market saturation things should pretty much work OK. The opposite viewpoint is true for a country who cannot, for whatever reason, determine the amount of money in circulation within it's own confines. That situation can arise if the currency is tied to an arbitrary "standard" such as gold, silver, or seashells, or as in the case of the EU, a common currency that cannot be manipulated by any one country.
For further reading on this subject I recommend "The Power of Gold: The History of an Obsession" by Peter L. Bernstein
Comments
I have tracked news regarding China Belt and Road for about 1 1/2 years.
The common theme is access everywhere. Money is given, offered (loaned ?) with a contract of some type. Long term contracts, too; 99 years, not unlike the Brits contract for Hong Kong. Also, many major projects do not find many locals involved in construction (read, no jobs created).
Anyway, I believe The Economist has published a story or two about this, too.
I can't find an article (better)I had recently, but this article is okay, too.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/12/world/asia/sri-lanka-china-port.html
Do you recall the thread here years ago when Euroland was still a very large mess; and that the overwhelmed Greeks should offer for sale some of their island and beaches, etc. for sale to China. How about a seaport.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/26/world/europe/greece-china-piraeus-alexis-tsipras.html
Hopefully, these can be accessed; as both are NYTimes.
Perhaps our house is going to have to consider selling more than corporate bonds (large boat loads of these in the past 2 years). No bonds at this time are reacting to anything to the negative side of investing.
Cash gonna be the king???
More stuff floating about for comment, but I gotta run for now.
Take care,
Catch
Off for the weekend- take care
OJ
For further reading on this subject I recommend "The Power of Gold: The History of an Obsession" by Peter L. Bernstein