Well now. I do believe tis a Patsy Cline global equity marketplace.....for now !

catch22

"Crazy" (Patsy Cline)
(originally by Willie Nelson)

---My rework meaning of some of the lyric.
1. I'm or I or my, being an individual investor.
2. You'd or you, the investing marketplace

Crazy
I'm crazy for feeling so lonely
I'm crazy
Crazy for feeling so blue

I knew
You'd love me as long as you wanted
And then some day
You'd leave me for somebody new

Worry
Why do I let myself worry?
Wondering
What in the world did I do?

Oh, crazy
For thinking that my love could hold you
I'm crazy for trying
And crazy for crying
And I'm crazy for loving you

Crazy
For thinking that my love could hold you
I'm crazy for trying
And crazy for crying
And I'm crazy for loving you





---The below M* link is category returns through Jan. 5 (Friday). OMG just about covers my thoughts for YTD for many sectors.

http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/

The one domestic area that is suffering and gett'in no love, and began this slide in 2017, is "Real estate".

Rough overview for this household's portfolio.......
1. will maintain FRIFX in the real estate space, it's 2017 return was +7.3%, and the fund maintains it's 50/50 equity/bond mix.
2. our portfolio mix is about 70/30, equity/bond with about 50% of the equity being healthcare sectors. Most of the healthcare arrives from direct investment into funds, but other percentages are also part of broad based U.S. equity holdings. When healthcare equity moves up an average of 3% in 4 trading days, I do pay much more attention.
Still attempting to determine if there are particular equity areas that may be more happy from the "tax package"; or if the equity market will be one big "love fest".
3. A repeat of a personal statement over the years; that the primary goal is to preserve capital with growth over the long term exceeding inflation and future taxation of the monies. Just the standard no brainer, eh?

Hey, have you a song lyric that somewhat describes the markets???

Okay, got to go outside "again" to move snow from one location to another near the driveway and sidewalk. More snow coming, the weather folks state. I'll use "brain freeze" as an excuse for any errors or omissions with this write, as it remains too cold here in Michigan.

Take care,
Catch

MikeM

Still attempting to determine if there are particular equity areas that may be more happy from the "tax package"

In macro terms, I sway towards large companies doing better then small companies given the reduction in corporate tax brackets. I tend to believe large companies will use their billions in tax cuts for stock buy-backs, dividends and other ways to increase company dollar assets and stock price. I don't see that money being spent to create jobs as intended. So, the rich get richer. Might as well join the band-wagon.

Probably a 50% chance I'm wrong though

Mark

"Still attempting to determine if there are particular equity areas that may be more happy from the "tax package"; or if the equity market will be one big "love fest"."

@catch22 - there's an ETF for that, TAXR. Not for me though. I don't much care for most investing gimmicks.

msf

"Probably a 50% chance I'm wrong though"

Allow me to say with 100% confidence that you are correct!

There are just too many things in this package that was rushed through without thought to make any predictions (aside from the one above). The mind reels.

Companies that are currently paying little or no taxes (due to other loopholes) can't benefit from taxes going lower. ISTM that it's the large companies with the armies of tax lawyers who are in this position. OTOH, it's those same armies that will be able to do the most with the new tax code.

20% tax break for some types of consultants. This could accelerate movement toward using contractors. Small companies may be able to make that transition more quickly (percentage-wise, at least). Maybe they'll offer to split the difference - take the same pay without benefits (healthcare, 401k match), but get a 20% discount on your income tax and a write-off for your health care.

Trump is pushing to allow small companies to band together and buy health insurance as if they were a single large company. That's a cost savings for small companies only.

Then there's the prospect of other countries cutting taxes (race to the bottom). That may help multinationals, but is less likely to help small domestic companies (except perhaps through their supply chain costs).

And on and on.

Ted

@catch22: Where is the tech ? Its the leading fund sector !
Regards,
Ted

catch22

@MikeM
--- I'm inclined towards your direction, too. Leaning more towards the large cap. stuff; and for some of the reasoning provided from @msf . I continue to "feel" that the big kids will attempt to "eat" the smaller kids. 'Course some of these gathering of numerous assets did not do so well back in the 60's, 70's or 80's as the companies were going in so many directions, that they could not keep track of their "brand". I recall ITT company having a bazillion sub companies under their wing and there was others, too.

@Mark Ya, the TAXR thingy. Hope those folks know what they are doing. An interesting concept in the hands of a superior management group.

@Ted Correct at this time, as to no direct "tech" holding; but with the broad based etf's and/or funds one will discover enough tech. of some form; mostly of the large cap. type and of course, the FANG kids show up just about everywhere, except a bond fund.
A few samples of various tech. inclusions by percentage of the fund:

--- ITOT = 24%
--- VTI = 25%
--- SPY = 26%
--- FHLC = 25%
--- ACWI = 21%
--- FSPHX = 32%
--- GPROX = 21%
--- FPURX = 28%

hank

I’m not sure who or what Willie Nelson had in mind when he wrote that song. But @Catch - I hereby declare you a stable genius.

Old_Joe

@hank- Hell, Catch don't know one end of a horse from the other. But then again, our stable genius of a leader doesn't know one end of the Constitution from the other.

catch22

Hi @hank and @Old_Joe

Not quite sure what to make of a comparative to the delusional statement from Trump of his "being a stable genius"; or my knowing the difference between the horse's head and arse, which may be equated to "cranial rectal inversion.
Perhaps whatever posting skill I may have had has left the building. I shall refrain.
Regards,
Catch

hank

@Catch22

Yes - refraining from further comment is wise. Old Joe simply doesn’t realize that all of us in Michigan are geniuses (unlike the state of fire flood and quake where no sane person would reside).

But please don’t refrain from posting. You bring a lot to the board.

Regards, (fellow genius)
-

Now ya got me going ...

Once upon a time I was deep into country music and PBR. But these days I can’t seem to drink enough beer to appreciate country much (or perhaps it’s the other way around). Your Patsy Cline lyrics (written by Willie Nelson) are a classic. I also agree 100% with your implied take on the markets. But here’s one with both Willie and Patsy that I like even better and occasionally still listen to. Doubt they actually sang it together. It’s likely a dubbed duet. But still a very fine sound - downright chilling.

Old_Joe

"Old Joe simply doesn’t realize that all of us in Michigan are geniuses"

@hank, @ Catch22-
Actually, by chance I've known quite a few Michiganders and Michigeese over the many years, and with only one single exception they've universally been intelligent (well, maybe a bit short of "genius") and lots of fun besides.

davidrmoran

They overlapped of course but never sang together so far as anyone knows; this is from a bunch of posthumous studio duetting from some time ago which Nelson and others did with her tracks, same as all that Nat King Cole stuff. What an alto.