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What Are You Buying ... Selling ... and/or Pondering? (April & May 2017)
Hi @hank, .. You are buying and I have been selling ...
Umm - Not quite (although I greatly appreciate the response).
I should have explained ....
Have a little extra $$ In this year's budget we didn't expect to have - So the chunk of cash I'd been sitting on in tax-sheltered account doesn't need to be withdrawn. Damned if I could find anything that looked cheap. So gravitated to the portion of my core position that includes non-dollar correlated assets. Bolstered the real asset component (with the gold) along with the international bond component (with a bit more of DODLX), thinking them the "least-worst" places for the excess cash at this time.
I found @Puddenhead's recent post "Where's the Value?" spot-on. In scanning the performance of T Rowe's 100+ funds as I like to do - nothing there jumps out at me as a screaming buy at this time - so your reluctance to throw $$ at the markets is understandable.
Wishing you some pleasant vacation time. Recently spent a bit of time in NC. Was in the 80s upon arrival - but cooled down into the 40s briefly. Still, a lovely area.
Right now, as we re-balance client portfolios, we are taking gains from domestic stocks and increasing international stocks. This is something we have been doing for about a year, and we have discussed our views in client communications and webcasts.
In fixed income, we are not reducing our target allocations, but we are remaining relative short in both maturity and duration. We will be happy if our bond holdings pay their coupon and maintain NAV. We do not expect much if any net gain. Given that likelihood, there is no reason to own longer-term bonds, maturity or duration.
What muni fund(s) come to your mind that would fairly closely resemble the credit quality and duration of the 21% tax-exempt munis in PTIAX? OPTAX? PHMIX? Mona
Hey Mona, just saw this. Short answer: a longer duration investment grade muni fund, not a high yield fund; something like PT's muni fund PTIMX, which is almost 90% IG.
A year or two ago I posted a fairly detailed recap here of a chat I had with one of their analysts about the fund, questions mostly about credit quality and duration of the two main asset classes PTIAX has invested in for most of its life - non-agency mortgages and munis. The answers on the credit quality question were that the munis are investment grade, and the mortgages are below investment grade.
So if you're looking to roughly recreate PTIAX using two other funds, they'd be a non-agency mortgage fund and an investment grade muni.
@PRESSmUP, No I have not considered EM debts. This sector of debt is considered the riskiest in my experience in downturn. Perhaps time has changed since then...
What muni fund(s) come to your mind that would fairly closely resemble the credit quality and duration of the 21% tax-exempt munis in PTIAX? OPTAX? PHMIX? Mona
Hey Mona, just saw this. Short answer: a longer duration investment grade muni fund, not a high yield fund; something like PT's muni fund PTIMX, which is almost 90% IG.
A year or two ago I posted a fairly detailed recap here of a chat I had with one of their analysts about the fund, questions mostly about credit quality and duration of the two main asset classes PTIAX has invested in for most of its life - non-agency mortgages and munis. The answers on the credit quality question were that the munis are investment grade, and the mortgages are below investment grade.
So if you're looking to roughly recreate PTIAX using two other funds, they'd be a non-agency mortgage fund and an investment grade muni.
Best, AJ
AJ,
Thanks.
As mentioned, I am covered on another non-agency mortgage fund. To pick up the 21% munis, being PTRMX (retail) is around 90% IG, it seems more prudent to buy VWIUX instead of PTRMX for the same yield. They appear to have similar characteristics and with yields so low, the 61 basis point difference in the ER is significant. Am I missing something?
Hi, I wasn't recommending PT's muni, just using it as an example. Vanguard's funds are fine; I might look at the longer term funds, VWLTX and VWAHX, as possibilities if mimicking PTIAX is the objective or a little more yield would be attractive. PTIAX's munis are apparently longer term than VWIUX, judging from what the analyst said and from PTRMX's maturity. But of course pick the duration/maturity you're ok with.
Hi guys! Bob C: Where are you putting money now as compared to, say, a year ago? The funds I own only one shows any value right now. God bless the Pudd
Started a position in GLTR as a hedge against an overpriced market. It's a precious metals ETF that holds gold, silver, palladium and platinum bullion.
Sold ITA which was primarily a Trump play I made back in November on which I had 30% profit, bought PONDX in taxable and two iras , sold PYACX and bought more SFGIX. These trades are a result in part of my moving everything to Fidelity where I had more choices.
slick, I tried to see how to duplicate your 30% profit in ITA, but 21.7% is the best I could do, by buying at the lowest daily closing price during last November and selling at the highest daily closing price so far this month.
@ Tony: I was mistaken about the purchase date. I originally started buying it in January 2016, bought more and sold off some through November 2016, but kept my original purchases in two ira accounts that I sold off this week. Those were bought at 115,21 and sold at 150.84. I kept the original shares I bought as my Trump play. Hope this clears up the confusion.
Hi guys! Good move, Slick! I did the same and bought PONDX. Have cash and not much looks good. Added a little to FSPHX and FDFAX. Duke says that staples and healthcare do the best of all the sectors over the summer......I don't know how he knows, but he says he does. Also, added a little to FJSCX and GLFOX. Have sold FRBAX. It was a pivot buy. Have a small loss. No more banks, I swear, this is the second time around and a big fat nothing to show for it. Remember gatekeepers!! We only need rates to go up to make money.....right? Just another line of crap that the talking heads spit out at you as they're selling. Still watching VWINX. It's still weak....might soon have to buy some. God bless the Pudd
Just put more into DSEEX at the last 'big' dip (eventually, first it has to go into DSENX); just sold some PONDX for cashflow and am switching the rest into PDI; will sell FREAX and maybe even VNQ as soon as I can figure out what to do for true diversification, which appears to be not much possible anymore.
OT, but only sort of if you're retired: discovered a really thorough tax-sensitive retirement withdrawal calculator, which struggles mightily to keep you in the lowest possible tax bracket year by retirement year, meaning you wind up taking from Roth more and earlier (a bit) than if you blindly follow the usual aftertax, tax-def, then taxfree sequence commonly advised.
Hi @Puddnhead You noted: "Still watching VWINX. It's still weak....might soon have to buy some." >>> An excellent fund long term, and we own some at this house. It's +3.4% YTD; but its return this year reflects, so far, the weakness in bond prices from yields moving upward. This fund is not alone from any other similar fund. One must keep in mind that this is managed fund and one should presume they will maintain a forward path with bond sells and buys as needed. NOW, if bond yields continue to rise for the next 5 years, then this and similar funds will not perform as with the past years of declining yields. My inflation adjusted 2 cents worth. Catch
I am pondering OHI -- Omega Health Properties. The nature of the business is well described elsewhere. It is a REIT with a current yield of about 7.5%. The dividend has been going up by a penny every quarter. (Yes, I guess it's a gimmick, but it seems like kind of a nice gimmick.) The few sources I have found online extol how safe the dividend is, and how pristine the balance sheet is, and how wise the management team is. If the yield were truly rock solid safe at this level and rising, I wonder why the market would let it stay so high. Also I note that some of the top rated REIT mutual funds take a pass on OHI. So what am I failing to consider? Can someone please offer something negative about OHI?
Dryflower: I was curious so did some research. It is well diversified by state, but does seem to concentrate on smaller cities and towns rather than urban areas where higher incomes are. It has about 52% of their skilled nursing facilities by far their largest segment(by their own 2016 stats) paid by Medicaid, with the average being high 40s. Medicaid may come under increased cost pressures going forward. This in my opinion is their largest weakness or negative.
Thanks, Slick. Of course, while the ultimate source of the funds may be Medicaid (to keep their tenants solvent), they are simply the landlords. They do not operate the facilities or receive direct compensation from Medicaid.
Hi @dryflower, @slick, I've had my eye on a HC REIT also, QCP. FWIW, Schwab gives QCP an A rating/ strongly outperform/ buy, where as they give OHI a D rating/ underperform/sell. I'm not a savvy enough stock picker to compare details on my own so I generally go with higher level analysis from them.
I've had a limit order in on QCP for a few weeks now. Hoping it can drop down another 10% from Fridays close. That would bring ot back to it's start of the year price. Not holding my breath, but if it happens I'll be happy to buy and hold in that sector for a while. Heck, baby-boomers will be packing these places in the next 10-20 years.
I own a sizable stake of OHI and have for some time. I think it's important to understand that they own the land and not the facility. Their tenants (the healthcare facility itself) rely more on private payer patients rather than Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement. Not everyone ferrets that point out. Also, as is often the case, the good companies get lumped in with the bad ones when negative news darts are thrown. This has held down the valuation of OHI and cranks up the dividend yield. I'm short on negative news to hand you.
Almost bought some DLEUX last week; still on my radar. Added to MOAT on dip, and a "nutty" small cap I've owned for quite a while. Those who check out JBSS may appreciate my attempt at humor. Sold GFMRX at beginning of month. Happy with current 8% yield on HQL; reinvesting in that fund has really soothed the pain of the biotech fall.
Hi Ben. I just sold out of HQL and put the proceeds into GRX. I was looking for a more conservatively run fund selling at a discount with a more reliable distribution. FWIW, I still have a fistful of THQ.
@BenWP, I put in a large (for me) trade for DLEUX at Fido, thought I would simply eat the large fee, but then later in the day canceled it. Part of the walkback was reading yet another piece about no need for foreign funds. I also doublechecked whether ML still did not offer it (despite its being in their research database), and that situation holds. Partly I am majorly irked at having sold FOSFX a little while ago right before a big runup, which seems to happen sometimes to others here. Phooey. I wound up putting the 'spare' money into DSENX, which I shall 'convert' to DSEEX after it settles; Fido now lets one do that if the sums are enough.
Comments
I should have explained ....
Have a little extra $$ In this year's budget we didn't expect to have - So the chunk of cash I'd been sitting on in tax-sheltered account doesn't need to be withdrawn. Damned if I could find anything that looked cheap. So gravitated to the portion of my core position that includes non-dollar correlated assets. Bolstered the real asset component (with the gold) along with the international bond component (with a bit more of DODLX), thinking them the "least-worst" places for the excess cash at this time.
I found @Puddenhead's recent post "Where's the Value?" spot-on. In scanning the performance of T Rowe's 100+ funds as I like to do - nothing there jumps out at me as a screaming buy at this time - so your reluctance to throw $$ at the markets is understandable.
Wishing you some pleasant vacation time. Recently spent a bit of time in NC. Was in the 80s upon arrival - but cooled down into the 40s briefly. Still, a lovely area.
Regards.
In fixed income, we are not reducing our target allocations, but we are remaining relative short in both maturity and duration. We will be happy if our bond holdings pay their coupon and maintain NAV. We do not expect much if any net gain. Given that likelihood, there is no reason to own longer-term bonds, maturity or duration.
A year or two ago I posted a fairly detailed recap here of a chat I had with one of their analysts about the fund, questions mostly about credit quality and duration of the two main asset classes PTIAX has invested in for most of its life - non-agency mortgages and munis. The answers on the credit quality question were that the munis are investment grade, and the mortgages are below investment grade.
So if you're looking to roughly recreate PTIAX using two other funds, they'd be a non-agency mortgage fund and an investment grade muni.
Best, AJ
Thanks.
As mentioned, I am covered on another non-agency mortgage fund. To pick up the 21% munis, being PTRMX (retail) is around 90% IG, it seems more prudent to buy VWIUX instead of PTRMX for the same yield. They appear to have similar characteristics and with yields so low, the 61 basis point difference in the ER is significant. Am I missing something?
Best Regards,
Mona
Hi, I wasn't recommending PT's muni, just using it as an example. Vanguard's funds are fine; I might look at the longer term funds, VWLTX and VWAHX, as possibilities if mimicking PTIAX is the objective or a little more yield would be attractive. PTIAX's munis are apparently longer term than VWIUX, judging from what the analyst said and from PTRMX's maturity. But of course pick the duration/maturity you're ok with.
Bob C: Where are you putting money now as compared to, say, a year ago? The funds I own only one shows any value right now.
God bless
the Pudd
http://www.morningstar.com/etfs/ARCX/GLTR/quote.html
I took profits in PVSAX.
I sold FSPHX (my XLV ANALysis trade).
Your ANALysis indicates that healthcare has run its course for now???
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PRIDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p18073816285
Good move, Slick! I did the same and bought PONDX. Have cash and not much looks good. Added a little to FSPHX and FDFAX. Duke says that staples and healthcare do the best of all the sectors over the summer......I don't know how he knows, but he says he does. Also, added a little to FJSCX and GLFOX. Have sold FRBAX. It was a pivot buy. Have a small loss. No more banks, I swear, this is the second time around and a big fat nothing to show for it. Remember gatekeepers!! We only need rates to go up to make money.....right? Just another line of crap that the talking heads spit out at you as they're selling. Still watching VWINX. It's still weak....might soon have to buy some.
God bless
the Pudd
OT, but only sort of if you're retired: discovered a really thorough tax-sensitive retirement withdrawal calculator, which struggles mightily to keep you in the lowest possible tax bracket year by retirement year, meaning you wind up taking from Roth more and earlier (a bit) than if you blindly follow the usual aftertax, tax-def, then taxfree sequence commonly advised.
https://www.i-orp.com/ORPparms.html
And the devo, James S Welch Jr, answers email and will inspect your inputs and results and comment. Amazing and woohoo.
You noted:
"Still watching VWINX. It's still weak....might soon have to buy some."
>>> An excellent fund long term, and we own some at this house. It's +3.4% YTD; but its return this year reflects, so far, the weakness in bond prices from yields moving upward.
This fund is not alone from any other similar fund. One must keep in mind that this is managed fund and one should presume they will maintain a forward path with bond sells and buys as needed.
NOW, if bond yields continue to rise for the next 5 years, then this and similar funds will not perform as with the past years of declining yields.
My inflation adjusted 2 cents worth.
Catch
If the yield were truly rock solid safe at this level and rising, I wonder why the market would let it stay so high. Also I note that some of the top rated REIT mutual funds take a pass on OHI. So what am I failing to consider? Can someone please offer something negative about OHI?
I've had a limit order in on QCP for a few weeks now. Hoping it can drop down another 10% from Fridays close. That would bring ot back to it's start of the year price. Not holding my breath, but if it happens I'll be happy to buy and hold in that sector for a while. Heck, baby-boomers will be packing these places in the next 10-20 years.
Partly I am majorly irked at having sold FOSFX a little while ago right before a big runup, which seems to happen sometimes to others here. Phooey. I wound up putting the 'spare' money into DSENX, which I shall 'convert' to DSEEX after it settles; Fido now lets one do that if the sums are enough.
Sold Disney a month ago, and bought more Home Depot with it. The money left over, put into FSPHX.
And, SIGIX, of course.
Ditto for FMIYX.
What worries me me is a lot of folks also agree!
At least SIGIX and FMIYX are closed.
Fingers-crossed.