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Do I Really Have To Watch This?

FYI: With all due respect to the office of the President, I can’t think of many other bigger wastes of my time than watching the State of the Union address.I honestly can’t remember the last time I watched more than 10 minutes of one as nothing ever is new. It ends up being a combination of pats on the back and promises on everything with applauses every 5 minutes from about one half of the hall.

Unfortunately I’m going to have to torture myself and watch Tuesday night in search of some comments on tax reform. Will there be details? Will he mention the words border adjustment tax? Unlikely as Steve Mnuchin on Fox yesterday said “There are certain aspects that the President likes about the concept of a border adjusted tax, there are certain aspects that he’s very concerned about.” Or will we just get vague comments that something big league is coming? Likely still.
Regards,
Ted
http://ritholtz.com/2017/02/do-i-really-have-to-watch-this/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+TheBigPicture+(The+Big+Picture)
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Comments

  • Howdy Professor,

    I refuse. Hell, I'd much rather wait for spring. I'll get the replay tomorrow morning on Morning Joe.

    Most of our investment strategy during these times is pretty, and at times, painfully obvious.

    and so it goes,

    peace,

    rono
  • Yes! ...
    IF, you plan on commenting on it.

    IF, you want to see how the actual speech compares with the main stream media's comments on it.
  • edited February 2017
    I had to deal with a lot of unstable people in my line of work - I'll pass.:)

    @Dan - I look forward to reading your summary of the speech. I hope filling the potholes in Michigan is high on his list of infrastructure projects.
  • @hank- your potholes will surely get filled before ours, since Michigan helped to elect him. Thanks.
  • edited February 2017
    @OJ I was (conveniently) out of the country at the time visiting the UK.
    However, I did vote absentee ... to no avail.
  • If I didn't know better I'd swear that this is one of those topis that Ted says we shouldn't be talking about. :)
  • edited February 2017

    Highly unlikely.
    I fear a significant market slump ahead and am not sure what to do about / how to prepare for it.

    Just playing around the edges. No place to hide.
    Old_Joe said:

    If I didn't know better I'd swear that this is one of those topis that Ted says we shouldn't be talking about. :)

    Yeah - Curious ain't it. However, I like when he's cantankerous like he's been lately. Means he's feeling better & getting back to normal.
    :)
  • "No place to hide." Tell me!
  • From the WSJ:

    "Trump Proposes 37% Cut to State Department Budget"
    "The Trump administration is proposing to cut spending by 37% for the State Department and U.S. Agency for International Development budget, according to a person familiar with the budget deliberations."

    "“That is definitely dead on arrival,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.) told reporters "

  • Since I'm sure everything except the press coverage so far will be "great"," tremendous," "beautiful," "big league or 'bigly?'" and "huge!" in the speech, the market will be up tomorrow. Trump once said to New Yorker writer Mark Singer he only sells three kinds of real estate: "Luxury, super-luxury, and super-super luxury." It's going to be like Oprah for rich people--"You get a tax cut, you get a tax cut, you all get tax cuts!" No under-promising and over-delivering here.
  • edited March 2017

    However, there's so much uncertainty right now as others note. His talk is highly inflationary. But the R-controlled Congress is intent on cutting with an axe. That's potentially deflationary. It's anybody's guess how it will all play out. And there's other possibilities not pretty, either. (Interesting editorial in The New Yorker this week. I'd start a fire-storm if I linked or mentioned it. So I won't.)

  • @hank- Now, now... look at the bright side: the president has now figured out that health care is complicated.
  • Old_Joe said:

    @hank- your potholes will surely get filled before ours, since Michigan helped to elect him. Thanks.

    Apparently, there are things that matter more to Trump than votes. Like most politicians, he cares about what he sees (or in his case, thinks he sees). He thinks he sees tiles falling from the ceiling of tunnels his limo passes through, so he uses them as examples of where to spend on infrastructure (NY/NJ).
    http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/321418-transit-agencies-push-back-against-trumps-falling-tiles-claim

    Earlier stories said that he was favorably inclined to fund the full build-out of the Second Avenue Subway in Manhattan (which would pass three blocks from his home). As I read the figures, that would cost about the same amount as the Mexican wall. Maybe we can get Mexico to fund the subway, too. After all, it will go to Spanish Harlem.

    https://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/20170126/upper-east-side/second-avenue-subway-east-harlem-midtown-federal-priority-list-funding
    http://www.walkingaround.com/spanish_harlem_mexican.html


  • edited February 2017
    msf said:



    Earlier stories said that he was favorably inclined to fund the full build-out of the Second Avenue Subway in Manhattan (which would pass three blocks from his home).

    When do you think the last time Trump took the subway was?

    Let's hope if the money is spent; the US at least gets the RR. Obama had 8 billion in the stimulus package - nothing much happened - maybe they couldn't find a shove ready?

  • When's the last time you think Trump saw all the people riding the subway, and cheered that it was keeping all the riff raff separated from him? You don't have to ride the subway to see what it does (or doesn't do where it doesn't exist).
  • "keeping all the riffraff separated"

    @msf: Hey! We ride the subway here all of the time. Watch it!!
  • I should have watched it to improve my vocabulary and communication skills. No one understands what I'm saying, but Trump is obviously communicating so effectively everyone understands what he is saying.

    I didn't know Yale used "bigly" and "bad dudes" and recommended ending each sentence with "believe me". I always knew my education was overrated, this is just more confirmation.
  • Save your time.

    I've stopped reading your posts and links awhile ago. Neither adds value.

  • That "clunk" sound was a mind closing. No need for additional information when you already know everything there is to know.
  • >> Neither adds value.

    not to you, it's true
  • He's Santa Trump. He's bringing us lots of big shiny ideas and plans but still has offered no specific policy/plan/route for how to get there. But on the whole, it's coming across like a regular old SOTU speech and while he looks uncomfortable doing teleprompting, he sounds more like an adult than I've heard him ... well, ever. So that's nice to see -- but will it last?
  • edited February 2017
    First Question:
    Were there 2 different Sequesters?
    It was always my understanding that sequester applied across both defense and non-defense expenditures. That was the basis of the compromise - that everyone share equally in the pain. No? Something in tonight's speech about ending a defense sequester. What am I missing?
  • edited February 2017
    Second Question: What market segments would you be buying or selling tomorrow based on the speech? Umm ... Maybe buy CAT because the wall's still front and center? And selll bonds because half of Sequester's being eliminated?
  • If you didn't watch, you missed an excellent speech.
  • @hank

    1) I believe that there was only the one sequester, which did extend to both defense and non-defense spending. Perhaps an attempt will now be made to lift the defense side, but if so, that's going to be quite a fight.

    2) I did lighten up on bonds earlier today. If the great wall of Trump does proceed, CAT would probably benefit to some degree, but I'm not sure that it would be enough to offset their current international sales problems. At this point South America would probably buy anything other than a CAT.
  • If you didn't watch, you missed an excellent speech.

    Yes.

    The media spin seems to be it was his best speech, good tone but same things he said previously. I don't know what they wanted him to say new.


  • It seems like the index futures are slightly positive, probably another modest up day tomorrow. I wonder if Mr. Market thinks this is already priced in.
  • edited February 2017
    @OJ - Thanks for the thoughts. What prompted my first question was DT's remark that we will end the "defense sequester" (and strengthen the military). But, I'm getting too political.

    I really didn't want to watch it - but they interrupted my evening business programming with it. Dang!

    I just poured through the Sebastian Page article I posted this morning. He's the top dog on TRP's allocation strategy team. A somewhat lengthy heavy read - but a lot of insight into their view of various markets and potential threats to the economy. Plan to read it again tomorrow.

    Take care.
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