Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
@Anna- I'm inclined to agree, and have postulated this to my wife for quite a while now.
As we have developed better and better telescopes of various types we have been enabled to see almost to the very outer limit of our universe. I speculate that that outer limit is in actuality just a large laboratory flask, and that our entire universe is sitting in that flask on a laboratory shelf in some other universe, one among many labelled as "failed", and just waiting for the inevitable end of our particular experiment.
@DanHardy You noted: "And don't forget about artificial intelligence. That will affect IT jobs and many professional jobs such as accounting." If you have not; read this short write linked in another thread. Regards, Catch
Hi @Old_Joe Well, I'm traveling way past the edge of this thread, but as related to the universe; perhaps the below will help someone with investment thinking.......one never knows from where an inspiration will arrive, eh?
Watched this BBC series in the early '80's on PBS. Comedy meets SciFi or the reverse. Clunky parts here and there; but still an interesting perspective of the value of humans and the Earth within the cosmic scope of things..... One may choose a glass or two of wine or one's choice "of" to help enhance the cranial mood for viewing and absorption of many little hidden pieces of thought and wisdom embedded........... video, online link at the end of this write. ENJOY, Catch
From: In The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy (published in 1979), the characters visit the legendary planet Magrathea, home to the now-collapsed planet-building industry, and meet Slartibartfast, a planetary coastline designer who was responsible for the fjords of Norway. Through archival recordings, he relates the story of a race of hyper-intelligent pan-dimensional beings who built a computer named Deep Thought to calculate the Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything. When the answer was revealed to be 42, Deep Thought explained that the answer was incomprehensible because the beings didn't know what they were asking. It went on to predict that another computer, more powerful than itself would be made and designed by it to calculate the question for the answer. (Later on, referencing this, Adams would create the 42 Puzzle, a puzzle which could be approached in multiple ways, all yielding the answer 42.)
The computer, often mistaken for a planet (because of its size and use of biological components), was the Earth, and was destroyed by Vogons to make way for a hyperspatial express route five minutes before the conclusion of its 10-million-year program. Two members of the race of hyper-intelligent pan-dimensional beings who commissioned the Earth in the first place disguise themselves as Trillian's mice, and want to dissect Arthur's brain to help reconstruct the question, since he was part of the Earth's matrix moments before it was destroyed, and so he is likely to have part of the question buried in his brain. Trillian is also human but had left Earth six months previously with Zaphod Beeblebrox, President of the Galaxy. The protagonists escape, setting course for "The Restaurant at the End of the Universe". The mice, in Arthur's absence, create a phony question since it is too troublesome for them to wait 10 million years again just to cash in on a lucrative deal.
YOUTUBE available episodes (this link = episode 1):
@DanHardy You noted: "And don't forget about artificial intelligence. That will affect IT jobs and many professional jobs such as accounting." If you have not; read this short write linked in another thread. Regards, Catch
I missed that post. And as to the Hitchiker; I feel I am feeling like I am become a servant of computers. I have a laptop, smart phone, Amazon Fire and a truck that tell me when it needs service via its computer. I am constantly updating them and nurturing them. I can see how people get addicted to them. I can also understand how people will need a third arm since one is now used to carry their smart phone.
What has become common place and acceptable in human interaction is that two or more people together can and will ignore the humans to attend to their electronics for the most mundane information.
Robotic Process Automation. Google Deepmind. etc. etc. etc.
The problem is when self preservation kicks in, mostly the data entry jobs will be lost. As in, read a printout and type things in vs. have a Robot use OCR and populate data into an user interface or update some database.
In the world of Capcha's and Rules Engines, traditional automation will be around for a long time. The IT industry will make sure of it. If there's one thing the IT industry knows, it is taking care of itself.
>> one thing the IT industry knows, it is taking care of itself.
I dunno; it depends. I know a lot of long-downsized IT people from defense R&D work, or from financial outfits, who suffered seriously when gov spending declined and when banks and brokerages struggled --- or with the latter when they got way more efficient through automation and much better software.
I also know more-general corporate IT types who were laid off simply as IT software and services and programs and servers got much more reliable, cheaper, easier to use, and the users savvier. It used to be you had some IT guys dedicated to support users, to deal w/ Windows problems, email, installations, hacks, file transfers, recovery, security, whatnot. Now that seems about a tenth of what it was then. My kids in their 30s work in two different companies (consulting to or supporting startups and management), and nobody needs much help connecting, networking, researching, installing, retrieving from archives, creating work products, learning systems, anything like that. I myself just completed an editorial gig for a google engineering subsidiary --- mostly devos, admittedly --- and not an IT person in sight.
The inputs to this topic have wandered all-over the map with individual experiences related and National statistics liberally quoted. All made contributions, but I prefer carefully documented stats, especially those from our government.
Some have expressed concern over the health of our Information Technology (IT) sector. That puzzled me given my perception that it was an industry growth leader. So I searched for some government documentation that summarized the situation. Here are two Links that are highly optimistic about both the double digit expected growth rate of the IT field and the above average salaries that folks in that industry command:
The government labor data are always a little old, but things don't change all that rapidly given the pervasiveness of IT throughout the world. It is a heavy weight industry.
It sure looks like students could do themselves some good by taking advanced IT courses that could favor employment in the various IT sectors. It is not going the way of the steel industry in the US, at least not yet.
Optimism works in the USA. As J. P. Morgan said: "The man who is a Bear on the United States will eventually go broke".
Best Wishes.
EDIT: Here is Link One again ( perhaps there is an error in the original address):
Did you study your second BLS link? (First one is down at the moment.) Lots of really good computer-related jobs listed. IT as discussed here, and as traditionally indicated, not so much, and certainly not high-paying.
What that tells me that it is a bit of a distraction to talk about Tech jobs. From that nformation there is about 2 million jobs. But there are about 140 million jobs in the USA.
@DH, Again you really need to study up more, not that your general point is wrong. (But do you really believe that tech is 1/70th of US jobs?? Credulous. Common sense should come into play at some point.) Tech jobs, in some broad definitions, currently number around 7M or more, over 6% of workforce, 8% of GDP, 12% of payroll, and this is all private sector (!). I will let you find my sources. I am having trouble quickly finding totals including gov and other public sector. Even these figures may be sketchy and understated. And again in any case, what is your point, undistracted?
@DH, Again you really need to study up more, not that your general point is wrong. (But do you really believe that tech is 1/70th of US jobs?? Credulous. Common sense should come into play at some point.) Tech jobs, in some broad definitions, currently number around 7M or more, over 6% of workforce, 8% of GDP, 12% of payroll, and this is all private sector (!). I will let you find my sources. I am having trouble quickly finding totals including gov and other public sector. Even these figures may be sketchy and understated. And again in any case, what is your point, undistracted?
Comments
@Anna- I'm inclined to agree, and have postulated this to my wife for quite a while now.
As we have developed better and better telescopes of various types we have been enabled to see almost to the very outer limit of our universe. I speculate that that outer limit is in actuality just a large laboratory flask, and that our entire universe is sitting in that flask on a laboratory shelf in some other universe, one among many labelled as "failed", and just waiting for the inevitable end of our particular experiment.
You noted: "And don't forget about artificial intelligence. That will affect IT jobs and many professional jobs such as accounting."
If you have not; read this short write linked in another thread.
Regards,
Catch
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/30915/ray-dalio-bridgewater-algo-robo-software-model-my-brain-10-staff-reduction-so-far
Well, I'm traveling way past the edge of this thread, but as related to the universe; perhaps the below will help someone with investment thinking.......one never knows from where an inspiration will arrive, eh?
Watched this BBC series in the early '80's on PBS. Comedy meets SciFi or the reverse. Clunky parts here and there; but still an interesting perspective of the value of humans and the Earth within the cosmic scope of things.....
One may choose a glass or two of wine or one's choice "of" to help enhance the cranial mood for viewing and absorption of many little hidden pieces of thought and wisdom embedded........... video, online link at the end of this write.
ENJOY,
Catch
From: In The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy (published in 1979), the characters visit the legendary planet Magrathea, home to the now-collapsed planet-building industry, and meet Slartibartfast, a planetary coastline designer who was responsible for the fjords of Norway. Through archival recordings, he relates the story of a race of hyper-intelligent pan-dimensional beings who built a computer named Deep Thought to calculate the Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything. When the answer was revealed to be 42, Deep Thought explained that the answer was incomprehensible because the beings didn't know what they were asking. It went on to predict that another computer, more powerful than itself would be made and designed by it to calculate the question for the answer. (Later on, referencing this, Adams would create the 42 Puzzle, a puzzle which could be approached in multiple ways, all yielding the answer 42.)
The computer, often mistaken for a planet (because of its size and use of biological components), was the Earth, and was destroyed by Vogons to make way for a hyperspatial express route five minutes before the conclusion of its 10-million-year program. Two members of the race of hyper-intelligent pan-dimensional beings who commissioned the Earth in the first place disguise themselves as Trillian's mice, and want to dissect Arthur's brain to help reconstruct the question, since he was part of the Earth's matrix moments before it was destroyed, and so he is likely to have part of the question buried in his brain. Trillian is also human but had left Earth six months previously with Zaphod Beeblebrox, President of the Galaxy. The protagonists escape, setting course for "The Restaurant at the End of the Universe". The mice, in Arthur's absence, create a phony question since it is too troublesome for them to wait 10 million years again just to cash in on a lucrative deal.
YOUTUBE available episodes (this link = episode 1):
What has become common place and acceptable in human interaction is that two or more people together can and will ignore the humans to attend to their electronics for the most mundane information.
So your last two posts are linked.
The problem is when self preservation kicks in, mostly the data entry jobs will be lost. As in, read a printout and type things in vs. have a Robot use OCR and populate data into an user interface or update some database.
In the world of Capcha's and Rules Engines, traditional automation will be around for a long time. The IT industry will make sure of it. If there's one thing the IT industry knows, it is taking care of itself.
I dunno; it depends. I know a lot of long-downsized IT people from defense R&D work, or from financial outfits, who suffered seriously when gov spending declined and when banks and brokerages struggled --- or with the latter when they got way more efficient through automation and much better software.
I also know more-general corporate IT types who were laid off simply as IT software and services and programs and servers got much more reliable, cheaper, easier to use, and the users savvier. It used to be you had some IT guys dedicated to support users, to deal w/ Windows problems, email, installations, hacks, file transfers, recovery, security, whatnot. Now that seems about a tenth of what it was then. My kids in their 30s work in two different companies (consulting to or supporting startups and management), and nobody needs much help connecting, networking, researching, installing, retrieving from archives, creating work products, learning systems, anything like that.
I myself just completed an editorial gig for a google engineering subsidiary --- mostly devos, admittedly --- and not an IT person in sight.
So lots fewer IT staffers than a while ago.
The inputs to this topic have wandered all-over the map with individual experiences related and National statistics liberally quoted. All made contributions, but I prefer carefully documented stats, especially those from our government.
Some have expressed concern over the health of our Information Technology (IT) sector. That puzzled me given my perception that it was an industry growth leader. So I searched for some government documentation that summarized the situation. Here are two Links that are highly optimistic about both the double digit expected growth rate of the IT field and the above average salaries that folks in that industry command:
https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-2/careers-documentation that in-growing-field-of-information-technology-services.htm
https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/home.htm
The government labor data are always a little old, but things don't change all that rapidly given the pervasiveness of IT throughout the world. It is a heavy weight industry.
It sure looks like students could do themselves some good by taking advanced IT courses that could favor employment in the various IT sectors. It is not going the way of the steel industry in the US, at least not yet.
Optimism works in the USA. As J. P. Morgan said: "The man who is a Bear on the United States will eventually go broke".
Best Wishes.
EDIT: Here is Link One again ( perhaps there is an error in the original address):
https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-2/careers-in-growing-field-of-information-technology-services.htm
Again you really need to study up more, not that your general point is wrong. (But do you really believe that tech is 1/70th of US jobs?? Credulous. Common sense should come into play at some point.)
Tech jobs, in some broad definitions, currently number around 7M or more, over 6% of workforce, 8% of GDP, 12% of payroll, and this is all private sector (!). I will let you find my sources. I am having trouble quickly finding totals including gov and other public sector. Even these figures may be sketchy and understated.
And again in any case, what is your point, undistracted?
Have a happy and safe New Year.