Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
I'm continuing my regular monthly contributions to SFGIX, GPEOX, GPMCX, QUSOX, ARTGX and I'll soon add OAKWX to the list. My penny stock is FCUUF, which I bought today because I think the long-term upside for uranium is big. I'm pondering a few healthcare names but can't bring myself to pull the trigger as I already have plenty. HQL is at the top of the list right now.
@jstr, thanks for the link. Why didn't you mention MDY? Oversight or conscious decision to adjust the model? Obviously it's not relevant now but are you worried about utility valuations at all if they stay where they are?
@expatsp Because I am reliably told that it is a solvent and productive and extremely cheap company. I was affirmed in this at 61 cents, and a longer while ago at multiples higher, and today it's 43 cents. So it's for gambling moneys, without question. It seems in no way a typical penny stock, as it is a veteran and going concern and has considerably actual assets. Of course if NG and oil pricing drops further, it may well too.
In general, I try to avoid pondering. It is likely to produce faulty decisions.
"When in doubt, mumble; when in trouble, delegate; when in charge, ponder." That just might be from an old US Army field Manuel. It's really a quote from attorney James H. Boren.
I guess it's silly time as the election date approaches. The political ads on both sides are outdated and/or out of context. It's a travesty and yet our system survives. That says much about the resiliency of our system.
Lots of REITs are 20% off their highs. Yes, they may take a further dip with a possible rate increase, but the numbers are compelling. I added to WPC who had a recent beat on earnings, and it's paying a comfortable 6.5% dividend.
Rebalanced a bit since I do this several time a year. Considering trim back the 15% EM allocation and let cash build up.
On taxable account, took some tax loss earlier in the year. Considering selling long term bond before year end to net a nice gain. Ted is right - one time raise on Fed rate; December is likely to happen.
Since, my November 1st comment I've done some more buying in equities. At last report I was at 49% equity up from 45%. I am now at about 51% range; and, with today's market gains I wish I'd bought more. I'll see how things go once the election is over and may load another 2% equity before Thanksgiving putting me somewhere around the 52% to 53% mark. Since, 55% percent equity is the upper limit within my asset allocation I plan to stop somewere back of 55% range and hold around this range up to around Easter. If I detect equities begin to break down before Easter comes ... natually, I'll start a trimming process raising cash by a like amount.
Please tell me why I should hold onto DLFNX? Just pondering. Bonds have indeed had a not-so-good patch, lately. Lots of Interm. Bond funds around. I got out of DODIX and switched to DLFNX some years ago. It's a regular, taxable investment account, not IRA. I won't go back to DODIX. I have the biggest chunk of my stuff in Trad. IRA in TRP. I've looked at PRCIX and PBDIX, but uncle Jeffrey beats them... MWIMX... Am I just expecting too much from "doctor" Gundlach?
Hi Crash. I use PTIAX as my only multi-sector bond fund. It's been riding the municipal bond category for quite a while making its longer term returns look really good, but not sure it is the best choice now. I really don't think any of these funds will do especially well going forward. I have been buying TIPS and Senior bank loans (including the TRP options) over the last 4 or 5 months in response to inevitable rising rates, but who knows.
Markets seem to ride a volatility wave near a major election. However, the longer term net change is not all that dramatic. Here is a Link that explores that volatility immediately prior to and soon after a Presidential election:
A good supplemental article in MarketWatch is titled " 2016 predictions: What presidential election years mean for stocks".
You might enjoy these historical reviews. Much turbulence with not surprising or outlandish moderate term outcomes.
As T. S. Eliot insightfully observed: " Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go".
I'm not a major league risk taker, so, almost by definition, I am satisfied with market like rewards. I planned and executed a do-nothing portfolio strategy for this election cycle. We shall see how prudent that approach was.
Hello, MikeM. I appreciate the response. I just looked at PTIAX, last night. Bonds of all sorts are getting hammered in the wake of the election. I see Trump is considering Jamie Dimon for the cabinet. Just kill me, now. Please.
Sold some of my PTIAX bond fund and put the $ into PFIDX. I have a good chunk in PTIAX and I'm getting uncomfortable with the large allocation to Munis. PFIDX is a non-conventional bond fund that has held up better than most the last 3 months. Like PONDX, it has Daniel Ivascyn as a co-manager so I'm comfortable with that.
Let me tell you what I'm NOT Buying. I can't bring myself to increase my International/Emerging market holdings. In my taxable accounts, I'm going to look to reduce my fund holdings.
In my retirement accounts, I'm buying up Value funds toward my current target of 66% invested.
I'm not going to buy any more balanced/bond holdings. However I may buy TIPs and Floating Rate funds. I'm confused regarding both my Riverpark holdings. Let's see.
One of my three worst performing funds last week was my New World Fund (NEWFX) ... however, I am not ready just yet to cut it loose. Overall, I was up last week by a mere 0.9% which is better than some income investors did. I too, plan to buy some more equity funds between now and Thanksgiving. I am looking to add to my position in FDSAX, as it was up nicely last week, along with reopening starter positions in both VADAX and BWLAX. In me doing this, I should put me pretty close to 52% to 53% possibly 54% equity should valuations continue to rise.
From here I'll have to see how the market performs as I am seeing an improvement in reported earnings. If November ends well, I may buy some more in December.
Hi guys! I have been reading the threads since the man is now the Big Kahuna. I, like Obama, am going to pivot......no, I'm not going to stare down the Chinese BUT going to move out of bonds. Why? Well, Richard Sylla had some fine things to say.....a very wise man, I think. Look at Consuelo Mack's thread. Anyway, more spending and lower taxes means more inflation. After all, that's what we all want, right? Sounds like Reaganomics to me all over again......de ja vu. God Bless the Pudd
Speaking of value: Next year I have to take SS (may start before April 70th birthday) and after I crunch the cashflow numbers for a while I may look to the side at how PONDX has done in the last tough months and then put even more into DSEEX. Meaning all of it, that is, all moneys slotted for equities. Or almost (still RE and some foreign). No small, no mid, little foreign. At that point I would be notionally less-diversified than ever in my long investing lifetime. = LCV and actively managed bonds, plus some foreign and RE.
I've always subscribed to the principle: "When in doubt do nothing". And I've never been more in doubt than today.
Consequently, I'm contemplating no moves. The current upheaval does make planning early 2017 distributions a bit more complicated. A week or two ago I had a pretty good idea of what my years' leaders had been and where the distributions should come from. Now, I'm not so certain. Appears many market sectors are undergoing reversal. Who knows how things will look 45 days from now?
I also felt I had a pretty good sense of the amount of risk inherent in my portfolio. I'd slowly increased the cash from a low of 5% in the early winter to just above 12% today signifying a more cautious - but still optimistic - outlook for equities and risk markets in general. Now I'm not so certain.
Despite the oft-repeated suggestions from one here that some of us trade too much, my primary interest in following my funds is to be aware of which areas have become richer over the year and which have lagged. This is helpful in planning for the 1-2 lump distributions normally taken shortly after the new year.
I don't like trading because I don't trust my own instincts or skill-set that much. Trading on a whim is more likely to get me into trouble and result in a loss than the other way around. The exception is the occassional rare opportunity I may see in a particular sector (like Latin America last January). In those rare cases, I'll place a small bet and attempt to lock-in gains early. More often than not these work to advantage, adding perhaps a percent or two to the year's return. I see no such opportunities at present.
I'm with Hank. I don't trust myself to be an effective TRADER, particularly during very volatile periods. I'm actually getting killed since the election. My portf. is nothing terribly risky, deliberately split: 7% cash (held by funds) with 44% US stocks, 8% foreign, with 40% bonds of all sorts. Such prudence is working AGAINST me! Aaaaaaarrrgggghhh!!!!! .......There might be some others doing research or just plain shopping right now. With that in mind, my small-caps have over-performed since the election, like pretty much everyone's small-cap funds, I expect: MSCFX up 6.67 PRDSX 3.67 VSCIX 4.42
My portfolio is holding up pretty well as the market moves through a sector rotational shift. From my 10/28 close through my 11/14 close my portfolio is down only -0.6%. While I am down my bogey the Lipper Balanced Index is up +0.4% for this period ... however, year-to-date I still lead my bogey. I have the S&P 500 Index up 1.8% for the referenced period.
I learned a long time ago there will be, from time-to-time, some bumps in the road. I have not been doing any selling; however, I have been doing a little buying thus far raising my allocation in equities and reducing my cash by a like amount. My buying is due mainly to the anticipated improvement in the earnings picture as we move through the 4Q2016 plus we are in a traditional seasonal stock market rally period that usually starts in the fall and last through spring. Also, 1Q2017 earnings are looking to improve year-over-year. In addition, I am looking for the Trump stock market rally, of sorts, to extend itself.
With this, I have added to my small/mid cap sleeve (ABSAX) along with my domestic equity sleeve (FDSAX) and plan to soon open a position in my large/mid cap sleeve (BWLAX) and possibly start an entry position in an equity ballast position (VADAX). Making these buys in baby steps ... of course. However, since Labor Day my allocation in equities has risen from about the 45% range to the 51%/52% range. This is partly due to some allocation changes my hybrid funds made plus as I noted above I have bought some equities too. Not planning to do much more than this ... possibly another percent or two. Since my income area is invested mostly in limited term, short duration and bank loan securities along with some high yields I currently plan to just sit tight in this area. However, should interest rates rise to where decent CD yields can be had I may move some cash to CD's and start to rebuild my CD ladder.
Good morning Old_Skeet. (However, should interest rates rise to where decent CD yields can be had I may move some cash to CD's and start to rebuild my CD ladder. ) At what approximate yield point would you start to execute this move ? Best rate that I can remember was around 1.25 % & the term has left the room . Would a (tips) fund possible work here instead of CD's or an equal position in both?
Comments
@jstr, thanks for the link. Why didn't you mention MDY? Oversight or conscious decision to adjust the model? Obviously it's not relevant now but are you worried about utility valuations at all if they stay where they are?
Because I am reliably told that it is a solvent and productive and extremely cheap company. I was affirmed in this at 61 cents, and a longer while ago at multiples higher, and today it's 43 cents. So it's for gambling moneys, without question. It seems in no way a typical penny stock, as it is a veteran and going concern and has considerably actual assets. Of course if NG and oil pricing drops further, it may well too.
In general, I try to avoid pondering. It is likely to produce faulty decisions.
"When in doubt, mumble; when in trouble, delegate; when in charge, ponder." That just might be from an old US Army field Manuel. It's really a quote from attorney James H. Boren.
I guess it's silly time as the election date approaches. The political ads on both sides are outdated and/or out of context. It's a travesty and yet our system survives. That says much about the resiliency of our system.
Best Wishes.
Thanks Scott...wherever you are.
On taxable account, took some tax loss earlier in the year. Considering selling long term bond before year end to net a nice gain. Ted is right - one time raise on Fed rate; December is likely to happen.
Skeet
... which single-malt scotches will keep me happy and contented over the next 36-48 hours if not longer....
https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2016/11/01/dumb-alpha-do-the-right-thing/
Markets seem to ride a volatility wave near a major election. However, the longer term net change is not all that dramatic. Here is a Link that explores that volatility immediately prior to and soon after a Presidential election:
http://www.henrywealth.com/files/34658/Presidential Election SP 500 Returns - Dec 2015.pdf
A good supplemental article in MarketWatch is titled " 2016 predictions: What presidential election years mean for stocks".
You might enjoy these historical reviews. Much turbulence with not surprising or outlandish moderate term outcomes.
As T. S. Eliot insightfully observed: " Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go".
I'm not a major league risk taker, so, almost by definition, I am satisfied with market like rewards. I planned and executed a do-nothing portfolio strategy for this election cycle. We shall see how prudent that approach was.
Best Wishes.
Regards,
Ted
urrgh
Was thinking myself of doing something along these lines, indeed still am.
In my retirement accounts, I'm buying up Value funds toward my current target of 66% invested.
I'm not going to buy any more balanced/bond holdings. However I may buy TIPs and Floating Rate funds. I'm confused regarding both my Riverpark holdings. Let's see.
One of my three worst performing funds last week was my New World Fund (NEWFX) ... however, I am not ready just yet to cut it loose. Overall, I was up last week by a mere 0.9% which is better than some income investors did. I too, plan to buy some more equity funds between now and Thanksgiving. I am looking to add to my position in FDSAX, as it was up nicely last week, along with reopening starter positions in both VADAX and BWLAX. In me doing this, I should put me pretty close to 52% to 53% possibly 54% equity should valuations continue to rise.
From here I'll have to see how the market performs as I am seeing an improvement in reported earnings. If November ends well, I may buy some more in December.
Take care.
Skeet
I have been reading the threads since the man is now the Big Kahuna. I, like Obama, am going to pivot......no, I'm not going to stare down the Chinese BUT going to move out of bonds. Why? Well, Richard Sylla had some fine things to say.....a very wise man, I think. Look at Consuelo Mack's thread. Anyway, more spending and lower taxes means more inflation. After all, that's what we all want, right? Sounds like Reaganomics to me all over again......de ja vu.
God Bless
the Pudd
Interesting that you mention value funds. I just added a bit more into ACMVX post election. I think value is something everyone should own.
Consequently, I'm contemplating no moves. The current upheaval does make planning early 2017 distributions a bit more complicated. A week or two ago I had a pretty good idea of what my years' leaders had been and where the distributions should come from. Now, I'm not so certain. Appears many market sectors are undergoing reversal. Who knows how things will look 45 days from now?
I also felt I had a pretty good sense of the amount of risk inherent in my portfolio. I'd slowly increased the cash from a low of 5% in the early winter to just above 12% today signifying a more cautious - but still optimistic - outlook for equities and risk markets in general. Now I'm not so certain.
Despite the oft-repeated suggestions from one here that some of us trade too much, my primary interest in following my funds is to be aware of which areas have become richer over the year and which have lagged. This is helpful in planning for the 1-2 lump distributions normally taken shortly after the new year.
I don't like trading because I don't trust my own instincts or skill-set that much. Trading on a whim is more likely to get me into trouble and result in a loss than the other way around. The exception is the occassional rare opportunity I may see in a particular sector (like Latin America last January). In those rare cases, I'll place a small bet and attempt to lock-in gains early. More often than not these work to advantage, adding perhaps a percent or two to the year's return. I see no such opportunities at present.
.......There might be some others doing research or just plain shopping right now. With that in mind, my small-caps have over-performed since the election, like pretty much everyone's small-cap funds, I expect:
MSCFX up 6.67
PRDSX 3.67
VSCIX 4.42
.....Just a WEEK, though.
My portfolio is holding up pretty well as the market moves through a sector rotational shift. From my 10/28 close through my 11/14 close my portfolio is down only -0.6%. While I am down my bogey the Lipper Balanced Index is up +0.4% for this period ... however, year-to-date I still lead my bogey. I have the S&P 500 Index up 1.8% for the referenced period.
I learned a long time ago there will be, from time-to-time, some bumps in the road. I have not been doing any selling; however, I have been doing a little buying thus far raising my allocation in equities and reducing my cash by a like amount. My buying is due mainly to the anticipated improvement in the earnings picture as we move through the 4Q2016 plus we are in a traditional seasonal stock market rally period that usually starts in the fall and last through spring. Also, 1Q2017 earnings are looking to improve year-over-year. In addition, I am looking for the Trump stock market rally, of sorts, to extend itself.
With this, I have added to my small/mid cap sleeve (ABSAX) along with my domestic equity sleeve (FDSAX) and plan to soon open a position in my large/mid cap sleeve (BWLAX) and possibly start an entry position in an equity ballast position (VADAX). Making these buys in baby steps ... of course. However, since Labor Day my allocation in equities has risen from about the 45% range to the 51%/52% range. This is partly due to some allocation changes my hybrid funds made plus as I noted above I have bought some equities too. Not planning to do much more than this ... possibly another percent or two. Since my income area is invested mostly in limited term, short duration and bank loan securities along with some high yields I currently plan to just sit tight in this area. However, should interest rates rise to where decent CD yields can be had I may move some cash to CD's and start to rebuild my CD ladder.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Skeet
(However, should interest rates rise to where decent CD yields can be had I may move some cash to CD's and start to rebuild my CD ladder. ) At what approximate yield point would you start to execute this move ? Best rate that I can remember was around 1.25 % & the term has left the room .
Would a (tips) fund possible work here instead of CD's or an equal position in both?
Have a good day,
Derf