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It's Back ... What Are You Buying, Selling or Pondering?
For the past year, M* noted that ARTGX was punching above their weight, so to speak. Given circumstances, I expect FMIJX to hold an advantage near term however, so I hold both. Similar to heezsafe, I am impressed with the fund, and the firm.
Hi wxman123! What caught my eye was the preferred shares and the smaller companies. You look atFRESX, Cohen-Steers, Principal....they all own the big stuff. I want to own the smaller stuff that's also in banks. You need to first be average to eventually become a star, and this is average for sure. I have bought at a low. If this does not work, I will move on. I also like their mix: Apprt. 12%, Office 21%, Retail 15%, Hotel 9%, and Who Knows 19%. I am playing this on interest rates and the consumer because I think rates will go down. We're sloooooowing......that's my case.....now, for you: What about the fund? How long have you owned it? What's it done? Where are you going now in real estate? What do you like? God bless the Pudd p.s. I love this thread just for this kind of stuff.
I am truly hoping Artisan funds get their mojo back.
I am counting on it, but I did take some money off the table in all my holdings couple of times last year. Especially glad I took some money off the "value" funds, since they did bad last year and not exactly doing better vs the growth ones.
Still waiting for them to merge away ARTZX into ARTYX, but the latter is as down as the former so that might have to wait a bit.
One of the most significant factors keeping investors from reaching appropriate conclusions is their tendency to assess the world with emotionalism rather than objectivity. That's why it is of utmost importance to utilize odds/rules based investment processes tested over large samples. The crux of the matter is that it is difficult to find such processes in the "mainstream" ....
@linter, agree with your view on healthcare sector that was one of few brighter spot last year. Ever increasing drug price beyond inflation rate will make them easy target in this election year.
@DlphcOracl - I should have asked this sooner. You said "I think the real buying opportunity lies ahead, much later this year or in early (Q1) 2017."
What causes you to feel that way? Just curious.
In keeping with the spirit of the thread I believe the sale prices are so like 5 days ago, and I don't anticipate doing anything other than sitting on my hands for the immediate future. However, I have considered opening a position in QMNNX which is odd for me. 1) I haven't bought a mutual fund in 5-6-7 years and 2) I'm not sure how to even use this kind of fund or why I think I need it. I'm guessing the 'market neutral' premise appeals to my senses. Maybe I need to throw a few more logs on the fire and thaw the remaining brain cells a bit. No rush, the puppies want to do some sled pulling anyway.
One of the most significant factors keeping investors from reaching appropriate conclusions is their tendency to assess the world with emotionalism rather than objectivity. That's why it is of utmost importance to utilize odds/rules based investment processes tested over large samples. The crux of the matter is that it is difficult to find such processes in the "mainstream" ....
The problem I have with that assertion is that the observation that emotion based investing is bad doesn't logically imply any mechanical process however back tested is necessarily valid while it often used to argue that way. Both could be equally unproductive. If you believe in the greater fool market theory in that the positive returns for some in any period is at the expense of returns from the others who expect to be winners in the next period (sort of like how real estate market works), then no mechanical or emotional process that would make everyone a winner would work even in theory.
A smart person can figure out how to get a great deal on a new car which happens only because of how many people overpay or get duped into paying that allows the car dealer to give you that great deal. Coming up with a service that attempts to give everyone the same great deal wouldn't work however much backtesting has been done. The very action of mass adoption would render it useless. Main reason why you don't see such processes in the mainstream. But there are a lot of algorithms designed to exploit the bigger fools and make money and do so on a daily basis.
Bought ATT and Verizon. Sold Gilead. Bought T Rowe Price Blue Chip.
Noticed this so asking. You doing me deep value investing, tech investing or utility proxy play?
I'm 57, want to retire next year, so need to move more toward preservation. I'm way too aggressive, and a 5% yield average is nice. I also sold FBIOX, I still own Celgene in that area.
By posting that I believe the buying opportunity lies ahead I mean much later this year (Q4) or in early (Q1) 2017. I believe we have been in a bear market (and forget about the -20% definition of a bear market - it is convenient but useless) which began around June 2015, i.e., we are now about 7-8 months into it.
Playing the averages, most bear markets will last between 18 to 24 months, hence I see this bear market ending in Q4 or Q1 2017. I also believe that the S&P will decline between 35% to 45% from its peak of 2134 in May 2015. Why? Because the S&P 500 has gained 320% trough to peak from March 2009 to May 2015 and this would be a proportional retracement.
This is totally empirical and is simply my gut feeling - totally unscientific. However, three things CAN be said with certainty:
1. It was too difficult to make too little money in the market over the past six months and that became increasingly true. Very few people made money last year.
2. The DJ Transportation Index and the Russell 2000 are firmly in bear market territory as are many stocks in the Russell 2000, S&P 500 and SC biotech's. I think the "Tranny" is the canary in the coal mine.
3. Risk:reward is asymmetrically skewed to the downside. Good stock picks, i.e., companies which beat earnings estimates and gave positive forward guidance were not appropriately rewarded and companies with neutral or slightly negative earnings/guidance declined significantly. Stocks with flat-out misses and poor guidance were crushed, often losing 20% to 30% in a single session and they have not recovered.
Every investor has to read the tea leaves for himself/herself. I have acted accordingly by pulling my money out of the market and sitting on the sidelines in 100% cash until something changes to convince me otherwise.
Thank you for your response DlphcOracl. I appreciate the time you spent on your input. Some concurring thoughts over here but I can never bring myself to be 100% in or out of the market.
"I can never bring myself to be 100% in or out of the market."
Perfectly understandable and certainly not for everyone.
My only risk by doing so is "opportunity cost", I.e., money lost if I am wrong and this is merely another correction in an ongoing bull market. However, this loss will be minimal because I would have only 30 to 40% equity exposure in the current market. Additionally , I believe the least likely scenario in 2016 is a rip-snorting bull market with double-digit positive return.
Conversely, if this is a bear market it will accelerate quickly to the downside and losses will be severe . The greatest bear market losses are usually in the last several months, e.g, September 2008 to early March 2009.
My rationale is that I am foregoing a small profit to avoid a large loss. Again, asymmetric risk:reward skewed to the downside. I am certainly flexible,however, and will change if data changes, e.g., strong corporate profits to support expansion of valuations, improvement in the advance/decline line, etc.
Hi wxman123! What caught my eye was the preferred shares and the smaller companies. You look atFRESX, Cohen-Steers, Principal....they all own the big stuff. I want to own the smaller stuff that's also in banks. You need to first be average to eventually become a star, and this is average for sure. I have bought at a low. If this does not work, I will move on. I also like their mix: Apprt. 12%, Office 21%, Retail 15%, Hotel 9%, and Who Knows 19%. I am playing this on interest rates and the consumer because I think rates will go down. We're sloooooowing......that's my case.....now, for you: What about the fund? How long have you owned it? What's it done? Where are you going now in real estate? What do you like? God bless the Pudd p.s. I love this thread just for this kind of stuff.
Hi, I shed HLPPX after holding for many years simply because it underperformed my benchmark, VNQ for the last few years. Just could not justify holding it. My overall real estate thesis is that the retail side (think malls, outlets, etc) will suffer as more and more people buy on the net. So, slowly transitioning to REZ, which despite its name holds a broad array of non-retail enterprises, like healthcare and self storage. It's been a great performer and I think of it as a defensive holding (which I prefer). Although I generally avoid individual names, I own NHI, again solid long term performer (UP in 2008-2009), and rounded out with a CEF, PGZ, like Principal in this space, like the bond component and especially like the discount at present. Good luck!
Seems intuitive but it's often overlooked when making investment decisions @Mark. I should have attributed this statement to you. Also, that you consider preservation of capital to be a primary concern, so that the money may live for another day.
The old fashioned "capital preservation thing", eh ???
With respect to the "capital preservation thing" finally dumped most of RPHYX: might as well put that cash into the Schwab FDIC checking account for safekeeping. Opened position in FMIJX, intending to gradually dial down other international exposure,
@Derf: Grandeur Peak... I'll be darned. So far I'm down 11% from purchase costs, though almost all of that is since Jan 1. What makes you optimistic about GPROX, especially?
Finally thrown in the towel on OYEIX in favor of S + P Index etf from Vanguard VOO. It has missed its benchmark Large Cap Value and S + P over 1,3,5,10 years. I do have other etfs, but mostly in sectors. I still have some of my fav funds such as VDIGX and SMGIX in substantial positions in retirement portfolio. This is my first S + P index, guess I've officially come over to the dark side Still have plenty of managed funds, but in the more specialized areas and pure growth areas.
As I'm always looking to buy income when it's on sale, HCN (Healthcare REIT) took a 7% haircut this week due to a downgrade by BMO Capital (whoever that is). And then today HCN announced a 4.2% divi increase for a 5.69% yield.
I'll be buying an additional slug tomorrow afternoon.
I sold my entire holding of BSBIX. It's a good fund but doesn't really warrant holding with yields so low for short-term bonds. I may DCA into VWINX or something with a little more risk/reward.
Will....I am re-evaluating my bucket 1 allocations, and BSBIX would be an ideal fund for that purpose. But you are correct in that VWINX is very different and offers greater opportunity.
At the end of this month, I am swapping out of BERIX and into VWINX.
Will....I am re-evaluating my bucket 1 allocations, and BSBIX would be an ideal fund for that purpose. But you are correct in that VWINX is very different and offers greater opportunity.
At the end of this month, I am swapping out of BERIX and into VWINX.
Yes, BSBIX and VFSTX are pretty darn good for short-term bond funds. Take your pick. I've been doing some DD on VWINX and it is an impressive fund.
Comments
What caught my eye was the preferred shares and the smaller companies. You look atFRESX, Cohen-Steers, Principal....they all own the big stuff. I want to own the smaller stuff that's also in banks. You need to first be average to eventually become a star, and this is average for sure. I have bought at a low. If this does not work, I will move on. I also like their mix: Apprt. 12%, Office 21%, Retail 15%, Hotel 9%, and Who Knows 19%. I am playing this on interest rates and the consumer because I think rates will go down. We're sloooooowing......that's my case.....now, for you: What about the fund? How long have you owned it? What's it done? Where are you going now in real estate? What do you like?
God bless
the Pudd
p.s. I love this thread just for this kind of stuff.
Still waiting for them to merge away ARTZX into ARTYX, but the latter is as down as the former
.....
In the sector model, I wasn't able to secure a position in Biotech (IBB) (as of last "What Are You Buying, Selling or Pondering?" post). During "High risk" profile years, we look for entry on an mechanically derived price based "pullback" in the months of Nov, Dec, which didn't materialize.
Next allocation slot for this portfolio is energy services (XES) on Feb 1. This will be a reduced 50% allocation position ( as the Map model has indicated 2016 as a "high " risk year ). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zlgOYdATSzC7YrUE9yE_uY03sHBRTcLUVyKusqqv2tI/edit#gid=113856734
....
The Small Cap value portfolio will "Sell in May" (as also directed by the Map model ) after position entry on Nov 2 2015 https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1C37CJypoxHWHB09e3g25ewOGjP83wDZhj5j6tlrLJoA/edit?usp=sharing
Distribution of (forward) returns during "high risk" profile years : https://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/2015/01/19/market-map-allocates-to-cash/
One of the most significant factors keeping investors from reaching appropriate conclusions is their tendency to assess the world with emotionalism rather than objectivity. That's why it is of utmost importance to utilize odds/rules based investment processes tested over large samples. The crux of the matter is that it is difficult to find such processes in the "mainstream" ....
What causes you to feel that way? Just curious.
In keeping with the spirit of the thread I believe the sale prices are so like 5 days ago, and I don't anticipate doing anything other than sitting on my hands for the immediate future. However, I have considered opening a position in QMNNX which is odd for me. 1) I haven't bought a mutual fund in 5-6-7 years and 2) I'm not sure how to even use this kind of fund or why I think I need it. I'm guessing the 'market neutral' premise appeals to my senses. Maybe I need to throw a few more logs on the fire and thaw the remaining brain cells a bit. No rush, the puppies want to do some sled pulling anyway.
A smart person can figure out how to get a great deal on a new car which happens only because of how many people overpay or get duped into paying that allows the car dealer to give you that great deal. Coming up with a service that attempts to give everyone the same great deal wouldn't work however much backtesting has been done. The very action of mass adoption would render it useless. Main reason why you don't see such processes in the mainstream. But there are a lot of algorithms designed to exploit the bigger fools and make money and do so on a daily basis.
Maybe not even the Fed!
By posting that I believe the buying opportunity lies ahead I mean much later this year (Q4) or in early (Q1) 2017. I believe we have been in a bear market (and forget about the -20% definition of a bear market - it is convenient but useless) which began around June 2015, i.e., we are now about 7-8 months into it.
Playing the averages, most bear markets will last between 18 to 24 months, hence I see this bear market ending in Q4 or Q1 2017. I also believe that the S&P will decline between 35% to 45% from its peak of 2134 in May 2015. Why? Because the S&P 500 has gained 320% trough to peak from March 2009 to May 2015 and this would be a proportional retracement.
This is totally empirical and is simply my gut feeling - totally unscientific. However, three things CAN be said with certainty:
1. It was too difficult to make too little money in the market over the past six months and that became increasingly true. Very few people made money last year.
2. The DJ Transportation Index and the Russell 2000 are firmly in bear market territory as are many stocks in the Russell 2000, S&P 500 and SC biotech's. I think the "Tranny" is the canary in the coal mine.
3. Risk:reward is asymmetrically skewed to the downside. Good stock picks, i.e., companies which beat earnings estimates and gave positive forward guidance were not appropriately rewarded and companies with neutral or slightly negative earnings/guidance declined significantly. Stocks with flat-out misses and poor guidance were crushed, often losing 20% to 30% in a single session and they have not recovered.
Every investor has to read the tea leaves for himself/herself. I have acted accordingly by pulling my money out of the market and sitting on the sidelines in 100% cash until something changes to convince me otherwise.
"I can never bring myself to be 100% in or out of the market."
Perfectly understandable and certainly not for everyone.
My only risk by doing so is "opportunity cost", I.e., money lost if I am wrong and this is merely another correction in an ongoing bull market. However, this loss will be minimal because I would have only 30 to 40% equity exposure in the current market. Additionally , I believe the least likely scenario in 2016 is a rip-snorting bull market with double-digit positive return.
Conversely, if this is a bear market it will accelerate quickly to the downside and losses will be severe . The greatest bear market losses are usually in the last several months, e.g, September 2008 to early March 2009.
My rationale is that I am foregoing a small profit to avoid a large loss. Again, asymmetric risk:reward skewed to the downside. I am certainly flexible,however, and will change if data changes, e.g., strong corporate profits to support expansion of valuations, improvement in the advance/decline line, etc.
Great point! Seems intuitive but it's often overlooked when making investment decisions. Thanks for the reminder.
@Mark. I should have attributed this statement to you. Also, that you consider preservation of capital to be a primary concern, so that the money may live for another day.
The old fashioned "capital preservation thing", eh ???
Derf
Derf
Bought some SQM today. 5% yield and lithium.
peace,
rono
I'll be buying an additional slug tomorrow afternoon.
At the end of this month, I am swapping out of BERIX and into VWINX.
http://www.bmo.com/gam/funds/g/us