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So.... keep investing in healthcare. Oh, and while the Sysco merger with US Foods was totally denied, I'm sure all of the health insurance companies trying to merge with each other will go through easy peasy.
Yeah, I won't go into a whole thing but ultimately I think with the way that things are it's a good decision and ultimately one that I just didn't see going the other way. Good call on VTR, which I don't own but I do think is at the top of my list in terms of healthcare REITs.
PRESSmUP, took a look at VTR on Schwab. Schwab gives it a 'D' rating, Ned Davis Research list it as 'Sell', Reuters Research lists at 'Hold', and Market Edge Second Opinion says 'Avoid'. It is down about 22% from it's January high and continuing to drop. Just curious, why buy now? The concept looks like a good long term, but...
M* says it's their favorite healthcare REIT and estimates fair value a bit less than 50% above where it is now. @MikeM, could it be that the other research you were looking at was worried about the Supreme Court decision or do they have other worries?
PRESSmUP, took a look at VTR on Schwab. Schwab gives it a 'D' rating, Ned Davis Research list it as 'Sell', Reuters Research lists at 'Hold', and Market Edge Second Opinion says 'Avoid'. It is down about 22% from it's January high and continuing to drop. Just curious, why buy now? The concept looks like a good long term, but...
It's getting hit due to interest rate concerns like most REITs. Interest rates may cause bumps in the road (which is why - I think - if you want to own real estate right now you have to really go for quality) but if you believe the long-term demand for healthcare facilities, it's an excellent pick.
I like the healthcare REIT's as well and have cash ready to go as soon as their charts turn North again. At the present, as others have noted, Mr. Price is giving them a spanking.
I think hospitals are the big winners and would go with FSHCX. Investing primarily in companies engaged in the ownership or management of hospitals, nursing homes, health maintenance organizations, and other companies specializing in the delivery of health care services. Normally investing at least 80% of assets in securities of companies principally engaged in these activities. Normally investing primarily in common stocks..Full disclosure . I have enough healthcare and don't expect to follow my own advice
PRESSmUP, took a look at VTR on Schwab. Schwab gives it a 'D' rating, Ned Davis Research list it as 'Sell', Reuters Research lists at 'Hold', and Market Edge Second Opinion says 'Avoid'. It is down about 22% from it's January high and continuing to drop. Just curious, why buy now? The concept looks like a good long term, but...
Hi Mike....Schwab doesn't like any of my REIT holdings, giving a D as well to HCN, an F to WPC....and a C to Realty Income.
This purchase was to serve a specific purpose of throwing off income in an IRA. As Scott noted, all the REITs (as well as divi paying stocks) have been getting hammered. Which to me, presents a decent time to buy a quality company.
I like the healthcare REIT space for reasons others have noted....I've held HCN for several years, and wanted to add to the space but with another name...there were several to choose from, and Josh Peters' comments on this specific company were very influential.
Geez Jerry, I hate to pop your balloon but I wouldn't buy that fund with your money. Performance is dismal and I'm being kind. So, so many other options out there for you to explore and invest in. A reliable category killer is PRHSX but I believe it's closed to new money. VGHCX is another great option. I'm not a huge fan of funds anymore preferring to own individual companies but I do have stakes in HQL & THQ, a pair of CEF's covering the same field.
The law is now here to stay, so both sides need to come together and pass tweaks and changes to improve it.
There is no point in taking an all or nothing repeal stance if you're a Republican, and clearly the Dems need to realize there are fixes needed. Many of which should be fairly easy.
@Clacy - I believe that you are right and that the majority of the American public agrees with you. Now if we could just get politicians to see the light.
PRESSmUP and scott , thanks for the replies. I definitely like this space and I can see the demand sky-rocketing going forward. Junkster has another post out there about life expectancy. I believe in 20 years it will not be uncommon for people hitting the century mark at a much higher frequency than today. Double, triple the number, who knows. 85 will be easy by then. Heck, assisted living places are being built all over the place in my neck of the woods. My mother is in one and the cost is outrageous. Someone, Unity HC in this case, is making a lot of money - and still building.
I, like Mark, will watch the price. Thanks for the awareness on this REIT.
PRESSmUP and scott , thanks for the replies. I definitely like this space and I can see the demand sky-rocketing going forward. Junkster has another post out there about life expectancy. I believe in 20 years it will not be uncommon for people hitting the century mark at a much higher frequency than today. Double, triple the number, who knows. 85 will be easy by then. Heck, assisted living places are being built all over the place in my neck of the woods. My mother is in one and the cost is outrageous. Someone, Unity HC in this case, is making a lot of money - and still building.
I, like Mark, will watch the price. Thanks for the awareness on this REIT.
I agree. My mother was in for Alzheimer she was paying 6,000/month. She died just as the money ran out. With all her other expenses, health ins. etc she was paying over $80K per year.
However, you should visit those assisted living places. The people get to a point where while they are alive, they are not living.
@Clacy - I believe that you are right and that the majority of the American public agrees with you. Now if we could just get politicians to see the light.
Just a quick search ... ?????????????? A new poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation shows that just 35 percent of voters support Obamacare, while 47 percent say they feel negatively about it. A similar poll released today by The Wall Street Journal and NBC News found that among registered voters, 34 percent are in favor of the law, while 48 percent are against it. - See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/09/10/Stop-Talking-About-Obamacare-Say-Half-All-Voters#sthash.SFYVBpHI.dpuf
Great SCOTUS decision - I get a subsidy - probably about 4K & you can too.
If your income is less then 4x the federal poverty line you can get something.
Think about that for a moment. If you own your home, no mortgage, low living expenses and structure your investments properly, you could have several million net worth and get a subsidy. You have to love Obamacare.
Now I wonder, or am curious, about the actual mechanics of the poll. What question(s) did they ask? Who did they survey? etc. etc.. I see the question on the page. Is that it?
Edited to add: Whatever. The act is here to stay. Fix what's wrong with it and move on. People are tired of talking about it.
And by the way, that's interesting. You brag about being able to get a subsidy in your financial condition but I'd be willing to bet that many in the same place don't feel that the poorer or poorest of us should get free or subsidized healthcare.
And by the way, that's interesting. You brag about being able to get a subsidy in your financial condition but I'd be willing to bet that many in the same place don't feel that the poorer or poorest of us should get free or subsidized healthcare.
Possibly. But I think there are many more that say; get whatever you can out of the system.
FYI, the downside of Obamacare are the deductibles. You have to pay the deductible before the health ins kicks in. In the old plans it was something like 70/30 or 60/40 Ins/person until the total deductible was met then the ins paid 100%.
Under ObamaCare Major Medical plans must meet certain cost sharing requirements and can’t have deductibles higher than out-of-pocket maximum limits which are $6,600 for an individual and $13,200 for a family in 2015.
I think the deductible issue will be changed in the future.
How poll questions are asked matter a lot. For example, here is a link showing many different polls taken on HC. In a nut shell, the majority say it needs to be fixed, not eliminated. In many polls the question is do you oppose the bill. The majority responds yes they oppose it. But when more in-depth questions are asked, it turns out most don't believe it should be eliminated, as Mark says, but fixed. One poll even showed some respondents who opposed the bill because it was not liberal enough.
Yes or no poll questions can be and typically are slanted to get the answer one is looking for. Broader questions need to be asked to understand what people really think.
As I've noted in other threads, I think obesity in this country is an epidemic/crisis. Obamacare is not going to change that - it will treat it. There has to be a change in the mentality and maybe I'm wrong but you have all of these ads that show the effect of smoking on people, but maybe it's time to have ads that show the effect of obesity in a similar fashion.
I was told a story yesterday about someone a friend knows (yes, the literal "friend of a friend", but it's a good illustration) whose parent had to get a stent. The person went to visit the parent in the hospital right after and what was the parent doing? Having a huge cheeseburger. The person visiting went nuts and the parent acted like they could do it because if they had issues again they would just get this procedure again.
It's insane, but I believe it.
I don't own VTR or one of the other HC REITs because I already have so much in real estate but I'm pondering it after today's decision.
Very long HC because I increasingly think that costs will continue to rise and we're not going to do anything about it.
Morningstar has a fair value on VTR of $90 and a very positive analyst report. The stock is trading at $60. It is M*'s favorite in the healthcare REIT sector.
Lastly, THQ - unlike its sister funds HQL and HQH - can hold healthcare REITs. Ventas was 2.2% of the portfolio as of 3/31.
@Clacy - I believe that you are right and that the majority of the American public agrees with you. Now if we could just get politicians to see the light.
Just a quick search ... ?????????????? A new poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation shows that just 35 percent of voters support Obamacare, while 47 percent say they feel negatively about it. A similar poll released today by The Wall Street Journal and NBC News found that among registered voters, 34 percent are in favor of the law, while 48 percent are against it. - See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/09/10/Stop-Talking-About-Obamacare-Say-Half-All-Voters#sthash.SFYVBpHI.dpuf
Dex, I don't think Mark was saying that a majority of the American public supported Obamacare. I think he was saying that a majority would like to see the two sides solve the problems of the current system, if it's here to stay.
Repeal seems to be very unlikely at this point. Why not get to work and make the current law work better then?
Btw, I'm not a supporter of the law. As an employer, I've seen many problems with the law, and a lot of unintended consequences. But if we are going to live with it, let's make it better.
Now I wonder, or am curious, about the actual mechanics of the poll. What question(s) did they ask? Who did they survey? etc. etc.. I see the question on the page. Is that it?
Bingo. As you observed the(?) question asks: "given what you know about the health reform law ..." At least it didn't use the politically charged term "Obamacare".
When people are asked in detail about what they like or don't like, figures come out very different. Here's an old (2012) article that goes into this, and includes poll figures. (Every time since that I've read or heard polling figures on the detail questions, they've been in the same ballpark.) "What Do Polls Really Tell Us About The Public's View of the Affordable Care Act?"
People think they know what the ACA is. And at some level they do, whether that's very superficial (it's government-mandated insurance), or a sense of general intent (universal coverage via a patchwork system of employer-sponsored group plans, government subsidized individual plans, and government programs like Medicaid), or knowing bit more detail (no preexisting conditions, child coverage, basic services, etc.).
But few really know what's included, except through sound bites (e.g. medical equipment tax). This is why IMHO these poll results are fluff. It's also why fixing, really fixing it, is not as simple (aside from politics) as people think. (I mean no disrespect to anyone above calling for fixes; they're needed, just much harder and more extensive than people suspect).
Here's one perspective on a number of structural problems having to do with money - what's been budgeted, distorted incentives, unequal subsidies, etc. It gives you an idea of all the moving pieces in this system (and offers some ideas on how to address some issues). http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2015/06/25/six-problems-with-the-aca-that-arent-going-away/
Finally, I agree with Dex that high deductibles is a serious problem with ACA. It's mentioned in the article above (as symptomatic of a larger issue). It's also one that doctors I've spoken with over the past few months have identified as a reason why many people with ACA plans are not using them.
>> A new poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation shows that just 35 percent of voters support Obamacare, while 47 percent say they feel negatively about it.
Huh? That's not what the KFF site says.
Whatever. It's a great day for the health of red states.
Tweaking will be good. Zero ability to repeal. Roberts et alia did the right thing legally, not just morally, though it never should've been heard in the first place. GOP totally relieved despite usual pissing and moaning; next year's clown beating will be less.
>> GOP totally relieved despite usual pissing and moaning; next year's clown beating will be less.
SCOTUS got the GOP off the hook. If subsidies were eliminated, the GOP would have been blamed. Then if the Dems wrote a law to put them back the GOP would have to vote against it, again looking bad.
All the GOP president candidates were happy with the decision - they don't have to address the issue. It will go away soon.
I'm not optimistic about the angst going away soon....there remains lingering opposition to Social Security and Medicare, so I think this will be smoldering for awhile. Perhaps a new unofficial rule can be adopted...no whining unless you also offer an alternative.
@Dex My condolences for your loss. My mom passed last year. She was in a nursing home. Similar situation where she died when the money ran out, except to pay a few incidental medical expenses.
I picked a lousy time to put money into VGSNX. Changes occurred in the 401k several weeks back.
There has been a lot of positive real estate news lately, so that price action is surprising.
Funny that nobody has mentioned the insurance companies, that will have piles of cash rolling in. Perhaps they will be even better investments that the healthcare companies?
Funny that nobody has mentioned the insurance companies, that will have piles of cash rolling in. Perhaps they will be even better investments that the healthcare companies?
Mentioned in the opening post. As I noted, I think they're going to consolidate if all these mergers go through, which is probably not going to mean cost savings for the average individual. So yeah the insurance companies with premiums that are skyrocketing will be just fine.
Comments
Started a position in VTR after seeing this news.
Thanks!
Investing primarily in companies engaged in the ownership or management of hospitals, nursing homes, health maintenance organizations, and other companies specializing in the delivery of health care services. Normally investing at least 80% of assets in securities of companies principally engaged in these activities. Normally investing primarily in common stocks..Full disclosure . I have enough healthcare and don't expect to follow my own advice
This purchase was to serve a specific purpose of throwing off income in an IRA. As Scott noted, all the REITs (as well as divi paying stocks) have been getting hammered. Which to me, presents a decent time to buy a quality company.
I like the healthcare REIT space for reasons others have noted....I've held HCN for several years, and wanted to add to the space but with another name...there were several to choose from, and Josh Peters' comments on this specific company were very influential.
press
There is no point in taking an all or nothing repeal stance if you're a Republican, and clearly the Dems need to realize there are fixes needed. Many of which should be fairly easy.
I, like Mark, will watch the price. Thanks for the awareness on this REIT.
However, you should visit those assisted living places. The people get to a point where while they are alive, they are not living.
??????????????
A new poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation shows that just 35 percent of voters support Obamacare, while 47 percent say they feel negatively about it. A similar poll released today by The Wall Street Journal and NBC News found that among registered voters, 34 percent are in favor of the law, while 48 percent are against it. - See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/09/10/Stop-Talking-About-Obamacare-Say-Half-All-Voters#sthash.SFYVBpHI.dpuf
If your income is less then 4x the federal poverty line you can get something.
Think about that for a moment. If you own your home, no mortgage, low living expenses and structure your investments properly, you could have several million net worth and get a subsidy. You have to love Obamacare.
4X =
single 48K
married 65K
http://coactiveconnections.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015-Poverty-Guidelines-300x180.jpg
http://kff.org/interactive/tracking-opinions-aca/#?response=Favorable--Unfavorable&aRange=twoYear
Now I wonder, or am curious, about the actual mechanics of the poll. What question(s) did they ask? Who did they survey? etc. etc.. I see the question on the page. Is that it?
Edited to add: Whatever. The act is here to stay. Fix what's wrong with it and move on. People are tired of talking about it.
And by the way, that's interesting. You brag about being able to get a subsidy in your financial condition but I'd be willing to bet that many in the same place don't feel that the poorer or poorest of us should get free or subsidized healthcare.
FYI, the downside of Obamacare are the deductibles. You have to pay the deductible before the health ins kicks in. In the old plans it was something like 70/30 or 60/40 Ins/person until the total deductible was met then the ins paid 100%.
Under ObamaCare Major Medical plans must meet certain cost sharing requirements and can’t have deductibles higher than out-of-pocket maximum limits which are $6,600 for an individual and $13,200 for a family in 2015.
I think the deductible issue will be changed in the future.
Yes or no poll questions can be and typically are slanted to get the answer one is looking for. Broader questions need to be asked to understand what people really think.
http://www.pollingreport.com/health.htm
I was told a story yesterday about someone a friend knows (yes, the literal "friend of a friend", but it's a good illustration) whose parent had to get a stent. The person went to visit the parent in the hospital right after and what was the parent doing? Having a huge cheeseburger. The person visiting went nuts and the parent acted like they could do it because if they had issues again they would just get this procedure again.
It's insane, but I believe it.
I don't own VTR or one of the other HC REITs because I already have so much in real estate but I'm pondering it after today's decision.
Very long HC because I increasingly think that costs will continue to rise and we're not going to do anything about it.
Also, in terms of VTR:
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2015/06/25/general-electric-these-are-the-bidders-for-ges-health-care-finance-group/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
Morningstar has a fair value on VTR of $90 and a very positive analyst report. The stock is trading at $60. It is M*'s favorite in the healthcare REIT sector.
Lastly, THQ - unlike its sister funds HQL and HQH - can hold healthcare REITs. Ventas was 2.2% of the portfolio as of 3/31.
Dex, I don't think Mark was saying that a majority of the American public supported Obamacare. I think he was saying that a majority would like to see the two sides solve the problems of the current system, if it's here to stay.
Repeal seems to be very unlikely at this point. Why not get to work and make the current law work better then?
Btw, I'm not a supporter of the law. As an employer, I've seen many problems with the law, and a lot of unintended consequences. But if we are going to live with it, let's make it better.
But what do people really know about ACA? Here's a recent KFF poll that shows people underestimate the number of people benefiting from ACA:
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/05/20/are-more-americans-benefiting-from-obamacare-than-realize-it/
When people are asked in detail about what they like or don't like, figures come out very different. Here's an old (2012) article that goes into this, and includes poll figures. (Every time since that I've read or heard polling figures on the detail questions, they've been in the same ballpark.)
"What Do Polls Really Tell Us About The Public's View of the Affordable Care Act?"
People think they know what the ACA is. And at some level they do, whether that's very superficial (it's government-mandated insurance), or a sense of general intent (universal coverage via a patchwork system of employer-sponsored group plans, government subsidized individual plans, and government programs like Medicaid), or knowing bit more detail (no preexisting conditions, child coverage, basic services, etc.).
But few really know what's included, except through sound bites (e.g. medical equipment tax). This is why IMHO these poll results are fluff. It's also why fixing, really fixing it, is not as simple (aside from politics) as people think. (I mean no disrespect to anyone above calling for fixes; they're needed, just much harder and more extensive than people suspect).
Here's one perspective on a number of structural problems having to do with money - what's been budgeted, distorted incentives, unequal subsidies, etc. It gives you an idea of all the moving pieces in this system (and offers some ideas on how to address some issues).
http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2015/06/25/six-problems-with-the-aca-that-arent-going-away/
Finally, I agree with Dex that high deductibles is a serious problem with ACA. It's mentioned in the article above (as symptomatic of a larger issue). It's also one that doctors I've spoken with over the past few months have identified as a reason why many people with ACA plans are not using them.
Huh? That's not what the KFF site says.
Whatever. It's a great day for the health of red states.
Tweaking will be good. Zero ability to repeal. Roberts et alia did the right thing legally, not just morally, though it never should've been heard in the first place. GOP totally relieved despite usual pissing and moaning; next year's clown beating will be less.
All the GOP president candidates were happy with the decision - they don't have to address the issue. It will go away soon.
yup, the perfect rule for life, politics, marriage, everything in fact.