Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Support MFO
Donate through PayPal
Paul Merriman: This 4-Fund Combo Wallops The S&P 500 Index
of course, this assumes you can live through the one-year worst return of 50% in order to reap the gains of 90% during the best year. i submit that, no matter how good that one year return looks, all but the most stoic of investors would not be able to handle the worst year. i know i couldn't. i'd be crying out for mamma and bailing into VWINX, probably right at 35% down, with "only" another 15% left to go before some great rise.
Mr. Merriman, the author, has had it all figured out for a long time. Beating the market is simple. Right up to the point where you attempt to actually do it. He launched the Merriman Funds in the 90s, sure that he had the magic formula.
If you're wondering, "so, how are they doing?" the answer is, "they're dead."
Change happens, especially in the marketplace. That change promotes personal investment changes, transformations in overarching philosophy and styles. Failure to do so could be ruinous for a portfolio’s end wealth. I changed; Paul Merriman changed.
I changed my investing rules in the 1990s and modified them yet again two years ago. Before the early 1990s I invested solely in individual stock positions, mostly using charting techniques. In the 1990s, I converted to a 90% actively managed mutual fund portfolio to reduce the overwhelming workload of identifying individual stock holdings.
Most recently, I recognized the merits of cost-saving Index products, and plan to only retain about 30% of my holdings in actively managed funds. Transformations are common happenings.
Paul Merriman started to manage money in the early 1980s and favored market timing techniques for roughly two decades. His market timing was not especially prescient. His eureka moment came after being introduced to academic research that demonstrated the advantages of low cost passive investing.
Given his past history, that transformative decision had to be extremely difficult for him. Yet he accepted that challenge and crossed over the line from active to passive portfolio management. I respect him for freely admitting that he was wrong for so many professional years.
Here is a Link to a 2012 WSJ article that discusses his transformation:
Apparently, the Merriman father and son team are somewhat retired from day-to-day operation of their firm. Today, the Merriman team strongly favors a long term buy-and-hold strategy, but they acknowledge that that strategy is just not acceptable by some clients. For these folks, they still apply a market timing strategy in an attempt to reduce personal worry and market volatility. Also it’s suggestive of some control.
There is not a single pathway to successful market participation. Probably, a big factor is consistency. Choose a pathway and stay the course until…… The really challenging task is to complete the “until” with a productive when and how.
Warren Buffett said that “Investing is simple, but not easy”. Larry Swedroe has a list of “14 Simple Truths” for investors. His Truth 14 is: “There is no One right portfolio, but there is One that is right for you.” Wise words from two very wise guys.
Investing is simple...just watch out for those in the business who TRY to make it sound too complicated... It is to THEIR advantage for you to Think "I can't do it, it's too complicated"..wrong thinking I could give you examples of people who could care less about investing, but do very well with their invested money....common sense goes a long way in making money
Mary Lynn, Paul, my wife, an athlete that use to work for me, all make good money with little effort.....I can think of more, if it wasn't late and Purdue just got beat...nuts
Gonzaga Bulldogs. How could I cheer against my own school, eh? The President picked Kentucky. I just read today that KY can't possibly. The "experts" at ESPN showed a final-4 prediction that included the dawgs. I hope so. They tend to show up and get beat quickly. Last year or the year before, Butler knocked them off. Completely ran circles around them. Admittedly, I become a basketball fan only through the tournament each year.
To my knowledge, Obama got no credit last year for saying a team like UConn could win it all. I was listening, but I graduated from the wonderful place and could have been listening selectively.
@Ted: Thanks, man. When I went through in the '80s, the campus wasn't so full of new, gigantic buildings. A statue of uncle Bing stood in front of the Crosby (!!!) Library, and the undergrads liked to have fun by stealing his tobacco pipe. Now, his name has been bestowed upon the (new and renovated since I was there) Student Center. http://www.gonzaga.edu/Student-Life/Get-Involved/crosby-student-center/default.asp
Gonzaga? I have no idea where that place is? sounds like the Congo? But Indiana got beat yesterday, Butler today, Notre Dame Tonight 10:40pm, don't thing so, good night and good luck. Last Indiana teams..... Four schools made the tournament SOMEBODY beat Kentucky and their 7 foot one year college players....Please! today? doubt it...
@Ted Excellent. Poor Butler and Valpo. Folks seem to forget about these two very good teams who have fought the Big b-ball wars before. Take care, Catch
Comments
Mr. Merriman, the author, has had it all figured out for a long time. Beating the market is simple. Right up to the point where you attempt to actually do it. He launched the Merriman Funds in the 90s, sure that he had the magic formula.
If you're wondering, "so, how are they doing?" the answer is, "they're dead."
David
Change happens, especially in the marketplace. That change promotes personal investment changes, transformations in overarching philosophy and styles. Failure to do so could be ruinous for a portfolio’s end wealth. I changed; Paul Merriman changed.
I changed my investing rules in the 1990s and modified them yet again two years ago. Before the early 1990s I invested solely in individual stock positions, mostly using charting techniques. In the 1990s, I converted to a 90% actively managed mutual fund portfolio to reduce the overwhelming workload of identifying individual stock holdings.
Most recently, I recognized the merits of cost-saving Index products, and plan to only retain about 30% of my holdings in actively managed funds. Transformations are common happenings.
Paul Merriman started to manage money in the early 1980s and favored market timing techniques for roughly two decades. His market timing was not especially prescient. His eureka moment came after being introduced to academic research that demonstrated the advantages of low cost passive investing.
Given his past history, that transformative decision had to be extremely difficult for him. Yet he accepted that challenge and crossed over the line from active to passive portfolio management. I respect him for freely admitting that he was wrong for so many professional years.
Here is a Link to a 2012 WSJ article that discusses his transformation:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970203718504577181093517535490
Apparently, the Merriman father and son team are somewhat retired from day-to-day operation of their firm. Today, the Merriman team strongly favors a long term buy-and-hold strategy, but they acknowledge that that strategy is just not acceptable by some clients. For these folks, they still apply a market timing strategy in an attempt to reduce personal worry and market volatility. Also it’s suggestive of some control.
There is not a single pathway to successful market participation. Probably, a big factor is consistency. Choose a pathway and stay the course until…… The really challenging task is to complete the “until” with a productive when and how.
Warren Buffett said that “Investing is simple, but not easy”. Larry Swedroe has a list of “14 Simple Truths” for investors. His Truth 14 is: “There is no One right portfolio, but there is One that is right for you.” Wise words from two very wise guys.
Best Regards.
It is to THEIR advantage for you to Think "I can't do it, it's too complicated"..wrong thinking
I could give you examples of people who could care less about investing, but do very well with their invested money....common sense goes a long way in making money
You stated: "I could give you examples of people who could care less about investing, but do very well with their invested money"
And the examples are ???
Derf
Regards,
Ted
http://www.gonzaga.edu/academics/libraries/foley+library/Departments/Special-Collections/Collections/Bing-Crosby-Collection/CrosbyandGonzaga.asp
As Time Goes By: Bing Crosby:
But Indiana got beat yesterday, Butler today, Notre Dame Tonight 10:40pm, don't thing so, good night and good luck. Last Indiana teams..... Four schools made the tournament
SOMEBODY beat Kentucky and their 7 foot one year college players....Please! today? doubt it...
For the State of Indiana, that would be "5" teams named to the playoffs................
Regards,
Ted
Butler Fight Song:
Indiana Fight Song:
Notre Dame Fight Song:
Prudue Fight Song:
Valparaiso Fight Song:
Excellent. Poor Butler and Valpo. Folks seem to forget about these two very good teams who have fought the Big b-ball wars before.
Take care,
Catch
Regards,
Ted
Iowa Fight Song:
Northern Iowa Fight Song:
@Tampabay: go find a map. Spokane happens to be THE biggest thing between Seattle and Minneapolis. Duh.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spokane,_Washington#Education
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_(state)