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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bull Market Remains?
    Let's make predictions. After all there is no rule you have to have an MBA from Harvard and work at GS. I predict S&P 500 goes to 1600.
  • Global funds still recommend bonds over stocks: Reuters poll
    @MikeW I don't have a sense for how far along we are in the correction (or crash) process. My simple minded approach is to DCA 2% of my available cash each week into either the bond side or the stock side of my holdings. Given the recent surge on the stock side, next week the bond side may wind up receiving an injection. More dividends come in every month, so my cash is somewhat replenished each month. If it drops to maybe 50% of where it is now before the horizon clears, I will probably reevaluate this approach.
  • Retirement Strategy: New Investing Paradigm May Change Dividend Growth Investing Forever
    A number of company are suspending their dividends including Boeing during this crisis. Wonder if this continue in near term until recovery takes hold ?
    VDIGX, VIG, and PRDGX are solid choices. VDIGX has a healthy exposure to health care sector that helped in 2008. Same strategy is also working this year by slightly leading S&P500 index.
  • Muni bond fund question

    While two days is not a trend, does this give you any sense that muni money market funds are stabilizing? It seems the answer is it depends on the daily net shareholder cash flows.
    Certainly that's a part of it. However, 532; of these funds are in cash or paper that will mature or can be redeemed within five business days (weekly liquid assets). So it's hard to see such a stampede moving the shadow price (mark-to-market NAV) four times what we've just seen (i.e. to below 99.5¢). These funds have enough "cash" to handle a run on the bank, and the remainder of the assets will make its way through the fund over a few months.
    The government, as the WSJ put it, recently "backstopped" these MMFs. With all due respect, I think most MMF investors just see this as a "government guarantee". It's not quite that, but perception is reality and it should have a calming effect.
    That doesn't mean that the muni bond market won't again go wacko. This only addresses the question of cash flow of muni MMFs.
    Given that "Individual, or 'retail,' investors are the largest holders of municipal securities", a herd mentality reaction could make a real impact on the muni bond market. That in turn could depress the value of a fund's holdings. (Quote is from ICI's FAQ About Municipal Bonds.)
    ISTM that the government MMF loan program lets MMFs prop up their shadow price by swapping undervalued paper for cash. For example, a MMF might have a muni bond that will mature and be redeemed at par in 11 months, while the market is currently pricing it at $0.98. This loan program allows the MMF to borrow against the bond as if it were worth $1 (amortized cost).
    But that program doesn't come without a cost of its own. There's an interest charge equal to the primary credit rate (currently 0.25%) + 0.25% for muni MMFs. Will sponsors go for this?
    If past is prologue, the answer is largely yes.
    at least twenty-nine MMFs had losses large enough to cause them to break the buck in September and October 2008 despite significant government intervention and support of the sector. Five funds or more experienced losses exceeding the 3 percent reported by Reserve, and one fund reported a loss of nearly 10 percent. Among the twenty-nine funds that would have broken the buck without sponsor support, the average loss was 2.2 percent."
    https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2013/10/twenty-eight-money-market-funds-that-could-have-broken-the-buck-new-data-on-losses-during-the-2008-c.html
    Aside from the Reserve Fund that broke a buck, that's 28 other funds where their sponsors propped up their funds. They did this not at a rate of 50 basis points for a few months, but by infusing 200 basis points give or take up front. The loan program is a fantastic deal for the MMFs. From a psychological perspective, the expectation is that they won't have to use it. And should they need to, it is dirt cheap.
    Then again, what do I know? As Will Rogers said, all I know is what I read in the papers. I didn't go to a seventh-rated MMF sponsor (Schwab, according to Crane Data) to ask about this new development.
    Though I did speak with the big kahuna (Fidelity dominates money-market industry) a few years ago after the liquidity regs were finalized. At that time Fidelity was very courteous, confirming that I was reading the regs correctly, but declining to provide any information about how Fidelity would implement them in practice. As expected, and no different from Schwab's response - just boilerplate.
  • U.S. Global Investors Fund's Holmes Macro Trends Fund changing name
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/101507/000143510920000074/usgiholmes497.htm
    97 1 usgiholmes497.htm
    U.S. GLOBAL INVESTORS FUNDS
    Holmes Macro Trends Fund (the “Fund”)
    Investor Class Shares
    Supplement dated March 31, 2020, to the Prospectus dated May 1, 2019, as supplemented
    IMPORTANT NOTICE REGARDING CHANGES TO THE FUND
    At the March 27, 2020 meeting of the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of U.S. Global Investors Funds, the Board approved, at the recommendation of U.S. Global Investors, Inc., the investment adviser to the Fund (“Adviser”), changes to the Fund’s name, investment strategies, and primary benchmark index, in order to highlight a focus on luxury goods-related investments, effective May 1, 2020. These changes, among other things, will be reflected in the Fund’s forthcoming prospectus and SAI dated May 1, 2020.
    The costs incurred in connection with effectuating the changes to the Fund, such as filing fees, costs incurred in connection with the filing, printing, and mailing of shareholder notices, and attendant legal expenses, among other costs, will be borne by the Adviser and not the Fund’s shareholders. Trading costs associated with transitioning the Fund’s current portfolio of investments, which are expected to be minor, will be borne by the Fund. The Fund could also potentially realize taxable gains in connection with transitioning the Fund’s current portfolio of investments, which could expose the Fund’s shareholders to the possibility of a future capital gain distribution.
    A summary of the anticipated changes to the Fund’s forthcoming prospectus and SAI dated May 1, 2020 is as follows:
    1. The Holmes Macro Trends Fund will be renamed the Global Luxury Goods Fund.
    2. The primary benchmark index for the Global Luxury Goods Fund shall be the S&P Global Luxury Index.
    3. The section entitled “Principal Investment Strategies” will be revised as follows:...
  • Why This Is Unlike The Great Depression
    Here is an interesting interview with Tom Barrack (Colony Capital chairman) that looks at how regulatory requirements within the Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) market are connected to the current liquidity crisis in that market space. There are lots of short term interconnected temporary cash flow problems that need rapid resolution in this crisis situation. Many are unrelated to the historical (and potentially future) values of the underlying businesses and the creditworthiness of the individual borrowers confronting the problems.:
    https://finance.yahoo.com/video/barrack-says-real-estate-collapse-222512472.html
  • Grandeur Peak email concerning its funds on April 1, 2020
    Just found the SEC Filing so it is not an April Fools joke!
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834420007183/fp0052318_497.htm
    497 1 fp0052318_497.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
    SUPPLEMENT DATED MARCH 31, 2020 TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUSES AND PROSPECTUS FOR THE GRANDEUR PEAK EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES FUND, GRANDEUR PEAK GLOBAL MICRO CAP FUND, GRANDEUR PEAK GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES FUND, GRANDEUR PEAK GLOBAL REACH FUND AND GRANDEUR PEAK INTERNATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FUND (EACH A “FUND,” AND TOGETHER, THE “GRANDEUR PEAK FUNDS”) DATED AUGUST 31, 2019
    Effective April 1, 2020, the Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund, Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities Fund, Grandeur Peak Global Reach Fund, and Grandeur Peak International Opportunities Fund will reopen to all shareholders.
    Also, effective April 1, 2020, the Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund will reopen to all shareholders who purchase directly from Grandeur Peak Funds. The Fund remains open through financial intermediaries to shareholders who currently hold a position in the Fund. Financial advisors with clients in the Fund are able to invest in the Fund for both existing as well as new clients. The Fund also remains open to all participants of retirement plans currently holding a position in the Fund.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • When to start buying
    Mike, I’ve been invested in a AKREX/AKRIX since 2017. Although it’s highly concentrated and particularly in financials, I don’t think that’s too much to worry about.
    26% of the 45% invested in financials is with MasterCard, Visa and Moody’s. They should do well going forward unless we truly fall into a deep recession or depression.
    IMO it is not going to happen. A slow down yes, maybe a quarter or possibly two, but nothing more than that unless something very unexpected occurs.
  • Why This Is Unlike The Great Depression
    @Mark Yes, a home is an illiquid asset that is hard to value or to liquidate to pay debts. Yet looking at just that is thinking like the average person whose home is his/her largest asset. According to Brookings, "Almost three-quarters of aggregate household assets are in the form of financial assets—namely stocks and mutual funds, retirement accounts, and closely-held businesses. Real estate makes up the vast majority of nonfinancial assets."https://brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/06/25/six-facts-about-wealth-in-the-united-states/Since the top 20% controls 77% of America's net worth, much of their assets is not in their residence but in more liquid forms--cash, stocks, bonds, funds, etc: "In fact, the top one percent alone holds more wealth than the middle class. They owned 29 percent—or over $25 trillion—of household wealth in 2016, while the middle class owned just $18 trillion.[iii]" When Bernie Sanders talked about a 2.5% wealth tax he wasn't asking people to sell their homes to pay it.
  • Grandeur Peak email concerning its funds on April 1, 2020
    Just received this email (the table in the email has been adjusted below)
    March 31, 2020
    Dear Clients and Fellow Shareholders,
    We are re-opening the Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund, Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities Fund, Grandeur Peak Global Reach Fund, and Grandeur Peak International Opportunities Fund to all shareholders as of Wednesday, April 1, 2020.
    We continue to be encouraged by the limited redemptions by our shareholders as we experience increasing volatility in the markets, and believe it is in the best interest of both shareholders and portfolio managers to have the funds open at this time. Opening the Funds to new shareholders may provide an opportunity to make investment decisions in today’s depressed markets that we believe will benefit shareholders for the long term.
    Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund GPEOX/GPEIX Open
    Grandeur Peak Global Contrarian Fund GPGCX Open
    Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap GPMCX Open*
    Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities Fund GPGOX/GPGIX Open
    Grandeur Peak Global Reach Fund GPROX/GPRIX Open
    Grandeur Peak Global Stalwarts Fund GGSOX/GGSXY Open
    Grandeur Peak International Stalwarts Fund GPIOX/GPIIX Open
    Grandeur Peak International Stalwarts Fund GISOX/GISYX Open
    Grandeur Peak US Stalwarts Fund GUSYX Open
    In the event the market has an unexpected rebound or the flows into the funds exceed our target asset levels, we are prepared to return back to a Soft Closed status to maintain a relatively small asset base and preserve the nimbleness for our research team. We will, of course, notify you in advance of any future changes to the funds’ status.
    To learn more about any of our funds, call any of us on the client team (contacts below) or our shareholder services team at 855-377-7325. Additional information is also posted on our website: www.grandeurpeakglobal.com.
    Best Regards,
    Mark Siddoway, CFA, CAIA, MBA
    Head of Client Relations
    * The Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund is open through financial intermediaries to shareholders who currently hold a position in the Fund. Financial advisors with clients in the Fund are able to invest in the Fund for both existing as well as new clients. The Fund also remains open to all participants of retirement plans currently holding a position in the Fund.
    The objective of all the Grandeur Peak Funds is long-term growth of capital. The Global Contrarian and US Stalwarts Funds are new and have limited operating history.
    RISKS:
    Mutual fund investing involves risks and loss of principal is possible. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment loss. Investing in small-cap funds will be more volatile and loss of principal could be greater than investing in large cap or more diversified funds.
    An investor should consider investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus, containing this and other information, visit www.grandeurpeakglobal.com or call 1-855-377-PEAK (7325). Please read it carefully before investing.
    Grandeur Peak Funds will deduct a 2.00% redemption proceeds fee on Fund shares held 60 days or less. For more complete information including charges, risks and expenses, read the prospectus carefully.
  • Global funds still recommend bonds over stocks: Reuters poll
    Global fund managers tilted towards bonds in March and don't hold much near term hope for a sustained stock market rebound....
    Global fund managers are convinced the world economy is already in recession, and recommended increasing bond holdings in March to the highest level in at least seven years while buffering up on cash at the expense of equities, a Reuters poll showed.
    “The recent fall in equities reflects the wrongdoings over the past decade such as share buy-backs at a time when investment growth was warranted."
    “The monumental scale of stimulus announced by central banks can only bring bond yields lower."
    Asset managers reduced recommendations to equity exposure to the lowest since September, to 45.9% of the model global portfolio from 49.1%. Cash holdings were increased to the highest since October, to 5.2% from 3.8%. Asked on the outlook for equities over the next three months, nearly 90% of respondents said stocks would fall further or stay around current levels.
    U.S. funds suggested a cut to equity exposure to the lowest in Reuters poll records for that country going back to early 2011 and an increase to bond holdings to the highest since then.
    https://reuters.com/article/us-funds-global-poll/global-funds-still-recommend-bonds-over-stocks-reuters-poll-idUSKBN21I1PO
  • Why This Is Unlike The Great Depression
    If you were to evaluate a man's finances to see whether he was credit worthy or not, would you only look at his annual income or his assets as well--how much cash he had in the bank, the value of his home, the value of his brokerage account? Especially with a man who is aging wouldn't it make more sense to pay attention to his assets as opposed to just his income since his earnings power would be declining? The same goes with a blue chip company like Apple. Would you say Apple's ability to repay its debts is only based on its earnings potentional or the massive hoard of cash it has on its balance sheet. All of which is to in this constant discussion of the debt level of nations, especially aging developed superpower nations with less growth potential but immense stores of already existing wealth, why is the debt to annual GDP the primary focus? Why isn't this also part of the discussion?
    image
  • Bull Market Remains?
    @Crash. If today's S&P holds, I have it down (only) 18.5% from last peak, which means the bull market has not ended ... using month ending data only, which is pretty common.
  • When to start buying
    AKREX is a small position for me. Im actually more worried about its 45% allocation to financials than I am about manager succession. Performance has been outstanding but I worry that his 4x weighting of financials vs the benchmark will bite him one day. Hasnt yet.
  • Bull Market Remains?
    If S&P500 holds tomorrow, for those of us that only track to month-ending levels, March 2020 will represent the 133 month of the bull market that began March 2009. The bear we've been reading about this month, has not yet appeared. If only that helped the hurt I've been feeling lately.
    ...Or, responding to the title of this thread: "remains of the bull market?"
    Vintage Freak is correct, I bet. I confess to feeling lucky that things in my portfolio did not get any worse than they did. PRDSX is still my laggard through all of this, but I reduced it to just a smidgeon of the portfolio in 2019. It was riding high back then, so I took from Peter to pay Paul, elsewhere within my stuff. It is still down -23%.
  • Muni bond fund question
    msf, thanks for your post.
    VMSXX - up to and including 3-13, the daily market value was $1.00 and above. 3-16 through 3-24, the daily market value ranged from $0.9986 to $0.9998 (fortunately carried out to four decimal places). 3-26 and 3-27, the value was back to $1.00.
    SWTXX - up to and including 3-17, the daily market value was $1.00 and above. 3-18 through 3-25, the daily market value ranged from $0.9988 to $0.9994. 3-26 and 3-27, the value was back to $1.00.
    While two days is not a trend, does this give you any sense that muni money market funds are stabilizing? It seems the answer is it depends on the daily net shareholder cash flows.
    Mona
  • Bull Market Remains?
    If S&P500 holds tomorrow, for those of us that only track to month-ending levels, March 2020 will represent the 133 month of the bull market that began March 2009. The bear we've been reading about this month, has not yet appeared. If only that helped the hurt I've been feeling lately.
  • Muni bond fund question

    In fact, Muni MM and prime MM can have the following: "The fund may impose a fee upon sale of your shares or may temporarily suspend your ability to sell shares if the fund's liquidity falls below required minimums because of market conditions or other factors.".
    Not "can have", but must have.
    The SEC regulation mandating this precise verbiage in MMF advertising is 17 CFR § 230.482(b)(4)(ii). That regulation also allows, but does not require, government MMFs to make the same statement that they might impose a gate or redemption fee.
    https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/230.482#ii1f2023c2-4879-11ea-8b86-0a6e5d7645f8
    It may be difficult to parse the part of the regulation that allows government MMFs to advertise the same restrictions. This SEC PR page says it more clearly:
    Government Money Market Funds – Government money market funds would not be subject to the new fees and gates provisions. However, under the proposed rules, these funds could voluntarily opt into them, if previously disclosed to investors.
    https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2014-143
    IMHO liquidity is not the issue now, NAV is (risk of breaking a buck). While muni bonds may have been the most volatile, muni MMFs have had much greater liquidity than prime MMFs. Vanguard funds tend to be both the highest yielding and the most liquid of the bunch. See below.
    Liquidity thresholds are 30% weekly / 10% daily (funds must not fall below these).
    Lowest liquidity weekly/daily over the past six months, and current weekly/daily for various MMFs ...
    Fidelity: SPRXX/FZDXX 33%(12/24) / 12%(12/24); now 49% and 39%
    Fidelity: FTEXX (weekly only): 63% (12/31); now at 67%
    Fidelity: FMOXX (weekly only): (current and lowest) 69%
    Vanguard: VMMXX 37.60%(3/25) / 23.16%(1/3); now at 44.32% and 35.40%
    Vanguard: VMSXX (weekly only): 64.83%(10/28); now at 66.67%
    Schwab: SWVXX/SNAXX 35.33%(12/10) / 14.49%(1/7); now 41.62% and 30.11%
    Schwab: SWTXX/SWOXX (weekly only): 64.69% (3/23); now at 68.57%
    Schwab: SWWXX (weekly only): 64.44% (12/20); now at 73.40%
    T.Rowe Price: TSCXX 33.32% (2/24) / 11.77% (3/18); now 36.72% and 15.35%
    T.Rowe Price: TRSXX (weekly only): 46.24% (2/13); now at 73.46%
  • Escape Plan
    I have been looking for a reliable trading system for many years. I ran hundreds of scenarios, mostly technical analysis. I wanted to find something easy, if you use too many indicators it's too complicated. You also don't want too many trades. I could find anything I like so I made my own system.
    I looked at
    50/200 moving averages--too late/early many time
    10 months MA by Faber-It works only in crashes but not good at mild one. You can see it in this (link)
    I tracked the performance of GMO, Arnott and AQR Capital Management and they were not good.
    Inverted yield, PE, PE10 can be off by months and years
    When I was younger I was very heavy in stocks but in the last 7-8 years I learned a lot about bonds, starting with PIMIX.
    In the last 5 years and close to retirement I based my timing on the following
    1) Bonds rule. Bonds must work rationally for me to be confident. Stocks don't have to be rational, they can go up regardless, at some point they will go down but they can be off by years/months
    2) I simply set a rule of max loss from the last top for each fund I own. Years ago it was 3% for bonds and 6% for stocks. Now it's 1% for any bond fund I own, at 0.5% I start checking why.
    If I sell a fund then I look at other funds in the same category, it the category bad or just this fund. Then I look at other categories, maybe they are doing OK.
    example: rates go up most bond categories go down but wait, bank loans may go up.
    make the switch.
    When you have enough, it's just a number game. If I sell too soon and it rebounded and I miss the performance...I don't care.
    3) Look at VIX. If it's over 30, it's a warning sign. Over 40 a stop sign. continue up, it's a danger zone. The key here is to look at extreme because it's hardly there.
    4) Pay attention to the traders. I record fast money and watch it every day, at least the first 15 minutes. Pay attention to Carter Worth. Pay attention especially to an unusual guess Tony Dwyer with pretty good calls. These people give me the market internals, spirit and what the big Wall Street firms are doing. Investing for me is a passion for years.
    5) I use simple tech indicators because many algos use it too. 50+200 MA, MACD, trends,
    3-line-break (link) This fast indicator tells you to get ready to buy/sell. I used these for riskier stuff for short term trading.
    When stocks lose and rebound, they will capture most times 40-50%. I look at the SP500 + 3 line break + daily MACD(weekly MACD is better) when to enter and stay for 1-2 days of trade. The more it's down the more you can make and stay with the trade. It's feeling but if I made money I sell anyway if I think it's enough.
    For my longer term bond holdings, I use a simple trend. I have several bond funds I like and just switch.
    6) Common sense based on the news.
    Examples:
    The Fed says they will raise rates, watch your bond fund, stay away from simple IG bonds
    The Fed said last week they will support IG bonds, start buying.
    Fast trading:
    A very known stock had bad news after hours and falls 20%. The next day, you can see the trading prior to the opening. It opens even lower at -22%, you buy, it will go up several %, you sell.
    PCI is one of the best known CEFs. It was going down sharply and more than the SPY, then one day it was down another 20%, this means, investors are desperate, then I buy, I made 5% in 30 minutes. The next 2 days it was up another 15% but I don't care. I made money.
    So, why I sold almost everything weeks ago because 1) bonds, including treasuries were acting irrationally 2) VIX over 45-50. These 2 are enough to sell but then stocks were crashing and all the news media were talking 24/7 about the Coronavirus.
    Bottom line: I have strict written rules that I follow but I'm also flexible. Never say never, I learn stuff all the time and then I test it to see if it works. It took me years to be comfortable to trade and use big %.