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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • ABRTX/ABRVX
    Thanks for the clarification. As hank observed, derivatives can be used for protection or to increase returns. Either way they change the risk profile of the fund. I believe that investors should look at what's in a fund and if they don't understand it or it makes them uncomfortable, they shouldn't invest in it.
    Note that many types of securities are derivatives. CMOs for one. Commentary from the Cleveland Fed, 1995: "Collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs), first introduced in 1983, are a form of financial derivative created to provide more stability and predictability for those investing in mortgage assets. Although some investors have profited handsomely from CMOs, others have lost millions of dollars. ..."
    https://www.clevelandfed.org/~/media/content/newsroom and events/publications/economic commentary/1995/ec 19950901 derivative mechanics the cmo pdf.pdf
    That four page paper does a pretty good job of explaining how CMO tranches are derived from the underlying mortgages and various ways the risk profiles may be tweaked.
    The point is simply that derivatives are everywhere (including in FPFIX). One does the best one can to understand what one owns (or might choose to invest in), and goes from there.
  • Bond funds with the best 15-year returns
    https://www.financial-planning.com/list/bond-funds-with-the-best-15-year-returns
    Bond funds with the best 15-year returns
    By Andrew Shilling
    Managers behind fixed-income funds with the biggest long-term gains nearly double their peers. After a year marked by a global pandemic and near-zero rate environment, their shorter term returns were subsequently even more impressive.
    The 20 top-performing bond funds of the past 15 years, with at least $100 million in assets under management, had an average gain of more than 7%, Morningstar Direct data show. Over the past 12 months, the same funds notched an average return of almost 18%.
    When considering the bond-market landscape over the shorter timer, it may be hard to fathom the same success in the years to come, says Tom Bradley, managing director and head of capital markets at Miami-based fixed-income software vendor YieldX.
    “Last year was an aggressive year for fixed-income performance with global central banks slashing rates as a result of COVID-19, and at the same time re-engaging in secondary market bond purchasing — the perfect combination for high-yield performance,” Bradley says. “Now that markets have plateaued and interest rates globally look grounded (possibly trending higher in the U.S.), fixed income will become a more nuanced sector to invest in as opposed to the ‘rising tide lifts all ships’ mantra of the last few years.”
    Compared with broader markets, the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG), which has a 0.04% net expense ratio, recorded a 15-year gain of just 4.23%, data show. Over the past year, the fund had a gain of 0.32%.
    In stocks, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) have had 15-year returns of 10.20% and 10.28%, respectively. In the past 12 months, SPY and DIA had gains of 50.29% and 45.30%. The funds have net expense ratios of 0.09% and 0.16%.
    Morgan Stanley captures surge in retail investing thanks to timely E-Trade purchase
    Despite record growth in wealth management, an otherwise rosy earnings report was marred by $911 million loss related to Archegos Capital.
  • ABRTX/ABRVX
    Hank understates the cost. Without waivers (agreement through Nov 30, 2021), the ER would be 2.76%. And that's for tracking an index, albeit a proprietary one: ABR Dynamic Blend Equity & Volatility Index Powered by Wilshire℠.
    Given the expense, given the fact that M* and the fund can't seem to agree on what it's doing (M* calls it long/short, the fund tracks an index it describes as "unleveraged, long-only allocation"), I'm disinclined to look into it further. @little5bee, what about this fund piqued your interest?
    https://abrdynamicfunds.com/mutual-funds-3/
    Regarding TMSRX:

    I also have sold out of TMSRX...I know some on this board still like this fund but no more "Level 3" holdings in funds for me.
    According to the fund's latest annual report, just $440K out of $130M AUM (0.34%) are level 3 securities.
    Elsewhere you wrote:
    in order of largest holding to less of: [other holdings ...] FPFIX - FPA Flexible fixed income
    According to that fund's latest annual report, $3.7M out of $335M AUM (over 1%) are level 3 securities.
    What is it about TMSRX that gives you pause while you seem sanguine about FPFIX?
  • For Bonds, Add Safety by Venturing Abroad
    While I like adding diversification, and my own portfolio is closer to Vanguard's target date fund's 30% foreign (per NYTimes article) than to 0%, it's not clear that one benefits substantially from this diversification.
    I ran a PorfolioVisualizer comparison of a 47.3/52.7 mix of BNDX and BND (this is the current composition of BNDW - Vanguard Global Bond ETF) with BND, with MWTRX (mentioned in the article) and a baseline of IUSB (US total bond market including a smattering of junk bonds).
    The analysis spans just over six years. The blend does a bit better than US IG only - marginally higher returns with marginally lower volatility; correspondingly, somewhat better Sharpe & Sortino ratios. But it is nearly identical to the MetWest core plus fund (down to the same 8% correlation with the US equity market).
    The US bond market ETF does a bit better on return with a volatility closer to the blend and core plus funds than the more volatile US IG bond market. Though it correlates a bit more closely (15% coefficient of correlation) with the US equity market. That's still low correlation; some of the other bond funds correlate more closely with the equity market.
    The only conclusion I draw from these numbers is that adding something to a US IG portfolio helps. But it isn't clear that foreign bonds help any more or less than a smattering of junk bonds.
  • Rate-hedged bond funds excellent in the fourth quarter. But are they a good long-term bet?
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/to-hedge-or-not-to-hedge-11618594856
    Rate-hedged bond funds excellent in the fourth quarter. But are they a good long-term bet?
    LQD
    -0.68%
    LQDH
    -0.63%
    **Would you be interested in an investment grade bond fund that made money during the first quarter?
    Of course you would. The first three months of this year were not kind to U.S. corporate bonds, to say the least: They suffered their second-worst quarterly loss in history, in fact. Bond investors ran for the hills in March, with the iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF LQD, -0.68% —one of the largest ETFs benchmarked to this sector—suffering its worst monthly outflow on record.***
    Enjoy
  • Peter Lynch: Outperform the Market By This Simple Strategy
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Xv1tKG_5EXY
    Peter Lynch: Outperform the Market By This Simple Strategy
    Simple but may make lots sense long term
    Interesting insights...keep buying what you know..
    .??(until you almost retire? Then readjust/rebalanced as needed)
  • A Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency thread & Experiment
    BLOK at least has real companies in it trying to profit off blockchain technology which is not the same as bitcoin as a currency. Yet those companies aren't cheap. Its largest holding MicroStrategy is up 500% in the past year and has a p-e ratio of 143. But I find blockchain technology a lot more interesting than bitcoin itself. Blockchain has many potential applications outside currency and bitcoin. Sadly, in Microstrategy's case, it looks like the only reason that it's up so much is it has acquired a lot of bitcoin, so it's kind of an overpriced shell. I bet many investors don't even really know what else the company does.
  • How much dry powder to hold in reserve ?
    The usual boring statement, KISS for most: know your goals and risk tolerance, select asset allocation accordingly, make minimal changes, stay the course, stay invested.
    Emergency fund: after your savings pass a certain amount (for us $50K+) we no longer have cash or emergency for over 2 decades and now in retirement.
    Do I really need an emergency fund? not really, first I use credit cards, if I can't, I have several thousands in the bank. Beyond that I can sell my mutual funds and get the money within 2 days. Unless you buy illegal drugs or a ransom why would you have an emergency fund.
    CASH: Do you really need cash, even a retiree? IMO, a retiree maybe need 3-6 months at most. Most/all retirees have a cash flow (from SS + distribution + pension + can sell something, what is so difficult to sell 3-4 times per year), in good time they can sell stocks and in bad times they can sell some bonds. Some of these bonds should be a ballast for stocks which means in market meltdown they will go up or have minimal losses.
    CASH for trading: I never understood this concept and I'm a trader and not a typical investor. A typical investor have stocks+bonds. If stock go down and you want to buy more stocks, it's pretty east to sell some bonds and buy stocks, so why be in cash making almost nothing.
    As a trader in the last 20+ years. When I was younger I just switched from lagging funds to better performing funds. The big change came around 2010 and planning for retirement when I added max loss allowed rule to protect my portfolio. Since then, I'm in the market about 98% and invested at 99+%(never cash). Only at extreme risk I'm out.
    So, what % I do have now in cash? The usual, less than 1%, after all, I don't see extreme risk for months.
  • ABRTX/ABRVX
    @little5bee-
    Take everything on this MaxFunds site with a large grain of salt. Often they overstate the negative. However, for a worst case scenario , it’s an interesting place to look.
    ABRTX Overall MaxFunds Score: 50% - Poor
    Forecast: 1%
    Best Case: 38%
    Worst Case: -75%
    Lipper gives ABRTX its highest rating (5) for “capital preservation”. However, that’s a backward looking grade - not a projection. While the chart looks steady, the fund’s been open less than 10 years. Why anyone would pay a 2.25% ER for any fund is beyond me.
    I do use some funds that use derivatives heavily to hedge market risk or operate in the futures markets (ie ABRZX). With such funds, the integrity and demonstrated expertise of the manager become paramount. Without knowing much about this one, at a glance I’d agree with @Baseball_Fan that it looks dicey. Suggest you continue to investigate. :)
  • A Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency thread & Experiment
    so...about 65% of bitcoin is mined in China...what can go wrong?
    Also...heavy pollution is caused by this useless waste of energy "mining" these bitcoins
    How soon do you think the US Govt will disallow bitcoin...which can be used for nefarious transactions etc
    I'd rather throw monies at HD (Home Depot), MSFT (Microsoft), ACN (Accenture) etc stock where at least they are real companies...not based on fantasy BS
    Whatever, Good Luck to all,
    Baseball Fan
  • ABRTX/ABRVX
    @little5bee,
    Good Luck to all, but I wouldn't touch these funds with anyone's 10 foot pole.
    Done learnt my lesson in IQDAX playing around with volatility derivatives etc.
    See my latest post...looks like holders of IQDAX will lose ~35% of their monies (if we are lucky?)
    Also, their was another vol fund run in Chi-town...LJM partners...more geniouses...I think they were down 56% in a day and then down more before they went kaput....it was all good until it wasn't.
    Well at least they were men about it and were honest unlike what appears to have happened at Infinity Q...freaking shyster
    I also have sold out of TMSRX...I know some on this board still like this fund but no more "Level 3" holdings in funds for me.
    Best,
    Baseball Fan
  • IQDAX- If it's opaque, just maybe there's a reason?
    On February 18, which was the last day Infinity Q calculated the net asset value for the fund, it was valued at nearly $1.73 billion, the announcement said. This is compared to an asset value of almost $1.25 billion — before considering liabilities and other deductions required for calculating net asset value — as of Thursday.
    The difference between the two valuations — which are not perfectly comparable — is $477.7 million, or nearly 28 percent. The fund attributed the differences primarily to over-the-counter positions, including variance swaps and other options positions, which represented roughly 29 percent of the fund’s net asset value as of February 18, according to the announcement.
  • IQDAX- If it's opaque, just maybe there's a reason?
    @zenbrew
    just saw this on Institutional Investor, dated March 29th article
    The firm said Friday that the fund had nearly $1.25 billion in cash and cash equivalents. This is compared to the fund’s last-calculated net asset value of $1.73 billion as of February 18.
    So...maybe 25-30-35% haircut for holders of this kaka....we'll see...how much do you think the vigorish of the wonderful law firms will be...
    Oy Vey, could have spend a couple nice weeks in Miami on the beach with the monies...
    Sheet.
    Best,
    Baseball Fan
  • For Bonds, Add Safety by Venturing Abroad
    Thank you
    Mama largest holdings Fidelity 2015 lsbrx jnk and many private individual bonds like Macy's kolhs and Ford
    Also couple private munis and American bonds previously
    Kind regards
  • For Bonds, Add Safety by Venturing Abroad
    @johnN,
    Not sure if the class would agree that these are bond funds per se but as best as I can answer your question, in order of largest holding to less of:
    PMEFX (Penn Mutual AM 1847 Income) - some would argue more of a balanced income fund
    I-Bonds - let's see what inflation rate portion is come May 1st...I'm thinking this could pay out over 2.5%, no state taxes, indexed to inflation, US Govt has printing press and nuclear aresenal and reserve currency so likely amongst safest investment avail.
    FPFIX - FPA Flexible fixed income
    Good Luck to you and all,
    Baseball Fan
  • Artisan High Income Fund to close to most new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935015/000119312521118559/d36840d497.htm
    497 1 d36840d497.htm ARTISAN PARTNERS FUNDS, INC.
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    File Nos. 033-88316 and 811-08932
    ARTISAN PARTNERS FUNDS, INC.
    Artisan High Income Fund (the “Fund”)
    SUPPLEMENT DATED 16 APRIL 2021
    TO THE FUND’S PROSPECTUS
    CURRENT AS OF THE DATE HEREOF
    Effective after the close of business on 30 April 2021, the Fund is closed to most new investors. The Fund will accept new accounts from certain investors who satisfy new account eligibility requirements. Eligibility requirements are described in Artisan Partners Funds’ prospectus under the heading “Investing with Artisan Partners Funds—Who is Eligible to Invest in a Closed Fund?”
    Accordingly, effective 30 April 2021, the following changes will take effect:
    1. The following paragraph is added under the heading “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” on page 33 of Artisan Partners Funds’ prospectus:
    The Fund is closed to most new investors. See “Investing with Artisan Partners Funds—Who is Eligible to Invest in a Closed Fund?” in the Fund’s statutory prospectus for new account eligibility criteria.
    2. The following replaces the text under the heading “Who is Eligible to Invest in a Closed Fund?” on pages 101-102 of Artisan Partners Funds’ prospectus in its entirety:
    Artisan High Income Fund is closed to most new investors. From time to time, other Funds may also be closed to most new investors. The Funds do not permit investors to pool their investments in order to meet the eligibility requirements, except as otherwise noted below.
    If you have been a shareholder in a Fund continuously since it closed, you may make additional investments in that Fund and reinvest your dividends and capital gain distributions in that Fund, even though the Fund has closed, unless Artisan Partners considers such additional purchases to not be in the best interests of the Fund and its other shareholders. An employee benefit plan that is a Fund shareholder may continue to buy shares in the ordinary course of the plan’s operations, even for new plan participants.
    You may open a new account in a closed Fund only if that account meets the Fund’s other criteria (for example, minimum initial investment) and:
    ∎ you beneficially own shares of the closed Fund at the time of your application;
    ∎ you beneficially own shares in the Funds with combined balances of $250,000;
    ∎ you receive shares of the closed Fund as a gift from an existing shareholder of the Fund (additional investments generally are not permitted unless you are otherwise eligible to open an account under one of the other criteria listed);
    ∎ you are transferring or “rolling over” into a Fund IRA account from an employee benefit plan through which you held shares of the Fund (if your plan doesn’t qualify for rollovers you may still open a new account with all or part of the proceeds of a distribution from the plan);
    ∎ you are purchasing Fund shares through a sponsored fee-based program and shares of the Fund are made available to that program pursuant to an agreement with the Funds or Artisan Partners Distributors LLC and the Funds or Artisan Partners Distributors LLC has notified the sponsor of that program in writing that shares may be offered through such program and has not withdrawn that notification;
    ∎ you are an employee benefit plan and the Funds or Artisan Partners Distributors LLC has notified the plan in writing that the plan may invest in the Fund and has not withdrawn that notification;
    ∎ you are an employee benefit plan or other type of corporate, charitable or governmental account sponsored by or affiliated with an organization that also sponsors or is affiliated with (or is related to an organization that sponsors or is affiliated with) another employee benefit plan or corporate, charitable or governmental account that is a shareholder of the Fund at the time of application;
    ∎ you are a client, employee or associate of an institutional consultant or financial intermediary and the Funds or Artisan Partners Distributors LLC has notified that consultant or financial intermediary in writing that you may invest in the Fund and has not withdrawn that notification;
    ∎ you are a client of a financial advisor or a financial planner, or an affiliate of a financial advisor or financial planner, who has at least $2,500,000 of client assets invested with the Fund or at least $5,000,000 of client assets invested with the Funds or under Artisan Partners’ management at the time of your application;
    ∎ you are an institutional investor that is investing at least $5,000,000 in the Fund and the Fund or Artisan Partners Distributors LLC has notified you in writing that you may invest in the Fund and has not withdrawn that notification (available for investments in Artisan International Value Fund only);
    ∎ you are a client of Artisan Partners or are an investor in a product managed by Artisan Partners, or you have an existing business relationship with Artisan Partners, and in the judgment of Artisan Partners, your investment in a closed Fund would not adversely affect Artisan Partners’ ability to manage the Fund effectively; or
    ∎ you are a director or officer of the Funds, or a partner or employee of Artisan Partners or its affiliates, or a member of the immediate family of any of those persons.
    A Fund may ask you to verify that you meet one of the guidelines above prior to permitting you to open a new account in a closed Fund. A Fund may permit you to open a new account if the Fund reasonably believes that you are eligible. A Fund also may decline to permit you to open a new account if the Fund believes that doing so would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders, even if you would be eligible to open a new account under these guidelines.
    The Funds’ ability to impose the guidelines above with respect to accounts held by financial intermediaries may vary depending on the systems capabilities of those intermediaries, applicable contractual and legal restrictions and cooperation of those intermediaries.
    Call us at 800.344.1770 if you have questions about your ability to invest in a closed Fund.
  • For Bonds, Add Safety by Venturing Abroad
    @JohnN
    Largest: RPSIX. 22.4% of portfolio.
    2nd largest: PRSNX. 21.5% of portfolio.
    3rd: PTIAX. 7.25% of portfolio.
    I'd recommend PTIAX ahead of the others.
    RPSIX holds a slice of equities, to "juice" the profit just a bit. Right now, the yield on it is below 3%. But you might make up the difference with cap. gains at the end of the year. RPSIX holds some TRP bond funds that are just plain sub-par. RPSIX is a fund-of-funds.
    PTIAX yield is not far from 4%, actually. (3.87.) And as for PRSNX: it's over 3%, which no one should complain about, these days.
    My only complaint with PTIAX is that they are slow to vest shares after you buy them. I once asked a Supervisor on the phone: "Is that because you don't have enough people hired to do the job of recording these items in a timely manner?" ..... After I asked the question, he went silent. Which told me a LOT. But the money they make for me is a good thing.
  • bernie hangover led to indexing
    Yep, although I will always maintain that the greatest crimes are generally the legal ones. Much of what occurred with mortgage backed securities prior to and during the 2008 financial crisis was legal, and that behavior nearly destroyed capitalism in the U.S. That's why Madoff is so despicable in retrospect. During the period in which he ran his funds, there was so much money to be made legally that to actually employee a Ponzi scheme like he did was just pure greed. The other striking thing is that his wife still was allowed to keep $2.5 million after all of this calamity. What an ordinary working person would do for that kind of "punishment!"
  • Amazon Versus the Unions
    @Crash While it's true that an ethical corporation is somewhat of an oxymoron, there are ways to invest, not to leave a behemoth like Amazon out of the portfolio, yet insist that it behave better than it has in the past towards labor and the environment:
    https://morningstar.com/articles/1002749/how-big-fund-families-voted-on-climate-change-2020-edition
    https://barrons.com/articles/sec-says-esg-fund-proxy-voting-disclosure-needs-an-upgrade-51617119803
    If eliminating the company feels impossible without accepting underperformance, engagement, real public engagement, with the company can happen.