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Bull Market Remains?

If S&P500 holds tomorrow, for those of us that only track to month-ending levels, March 2020 will represent the 133 month of the bull market that began March 2009. The bear we've been reading about this month, has not yet appeared. If only that helped the hurt I've been feeling lately.

Comments

  • is there a site for the 60-90-120d graphs?
  • End of Quarter coming. Today and Tomorrow will be UP.
  • maybe

    I sold today to raise a little cash, to get to year end, since all my cool bond funds have fevers and are wretching in the corner
  • Charles said:

    If S&P500 holds tomorrow, for those of us that only track to month-ending levels, March 2020 will represent the 133 month of the bull market that began March 2009. The bear we've been reading about this month, has not yet appeared. If only that helped the hurt I've been feeling lately.

    ...Or, responding to the title of this thread: "remains of the bull market?"
    Vintage Freak is correct, I bet. I confess to feeling lucky that things in my portfolio did not get any worse than they did. PRDSX is still my laggard through all of this, but I reduced it to just a smidgeon of the portfolio in 2019. It was riding high back then, so I took from Peter to pay Paul, elsewhere within my stuff. It is still down -23%.
  • @Crash. If today's S&P holds, I have it down (only) 18.5% from last peak, which means the bull market has not ended ... using month ending data only, which is pretty common.
  • @Charles. I trust you.:)
  • We can see what happens when buyers come in to shore up their returns artificially. Futures down, opened down, now they swoop in.

    Smart people looking to take losses will do well to sell today instead of waiting for June 30. I had been playing with the houses money in CGMFX, but now became my first unforced tax loss candidate for 2020.
  • I think we ended the month -19.7% from previous peak. Should I call it?
  • Chas -- yeah this is a bear... I expect we'll be going down more too
  • Let's make predictions. After all there is no rule you have to have an MBA from Harvard and work at GS. I predict S&P 500 goes to 1600.
  • yikes. But if we outlive the Bear, it will pay-off.
  • edited April 2020
    Just a BA in Economics here ... I'm thinking that the S&P 500 Index trades between a near term range of 2,000 to 2,400. This is based upon TTM earings for the Index being in the range of $100.00 to $120.00 with an earnings yield of 5%. Currently, S&P list the 500 Index with projected March TTM earnings at $140.00. I'm expecting this to change as companies report March results.

    For me, since cash is a big part of my asset allocation this market turmoil presents a long term buying opportunity. I'm sure there are others that think differently. But, this is what makes a market. The different perspectives and views.

    I am, Old_Skeet
  • @Old_Skeet Thank you for your thoughts. They are straightforward and logical as always.
  • @VF - yeah I was thinking 1700 but your 1600 has a 50-50 chance of being right also.
  • I think we ended the month -19.7% from previous peak. Should I call it?
    Certainly it is not a cute teddy bear but rather a hungry bear who just woke up from a long hibernation.
  • The Russell 2000 much more indicative of the breath of hemorrhage than the SPY. Former now down from February peak 37% vs 27% for latter, intra-day 1 April. SPY heavy info/tech ... companies expected to fare better with CV-19 crisis.
  • @Charles - when is the list reconfigured? End of quarter? I forget but the changes should be interesting.
  • I took my equity allocation down to 20% in my retirement account when the S&P hit 2900. I increased back to 45% when S&P hit 2400. I plan to increase again if/when S&P hits 2300.
  • I'm not buying or selling right now. I changed my profile image to reflect that.:)
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