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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fintech Apps - Yotta Funds Missing
    Beware of nonbank fintech apps promising good yields. These fintech intermediaries may only do recordkeeping for gross funds deposited with them but hold by them at the FDIC-insured banks. The customers aren't connected directly with those FDIC-insured banks (or, those banks aren't aware of the individual depositors), but they are confused by misleading references to FDIC insurance. So, when the money goes missing, the chase for money starts and customers, fintech, banks point fingers at each other.
    Well, this isn't hypothetical - Yotta-Synapse have managed to lose $109 million of customers' money.
    Ken Tumin/X https://x.com/KenTumin/status/1806063471668375680
    CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/21/synapse-collapse-nearly-109m-in-yotta-customer-deposits-vanish.html
    https://synapsefi.com/solutions/neobanking
  • Can someone explain PYLD’s apparent negative 90% cash position? What am I missing?
    Thanks both. Larry, PIMIX is only 12.5% negative cash. I’d consider moving in but need an easier to trade etf for the time being.
    M* writes highly of PYLD (Bronze rated, however). I’ve held it for several months in the past. Steady eddy during that time. Even suggested it to a poster recently. It has a “average credit rating / surveyed” of A which is well above some other multi-sector funds, including the one I referenced earlier from J.P. Morgan. It has, however, a very high weighting to “Securitized Debt” obligations which are hard to analyze..
    Interestingly, if you believe M* (??) Rick Rieder’s year old etf BINC is sitting in 43% cash. Geez. That doesn’t sound like Rieder. I’ve always considered bond funds more difficult to understand than most equity funds. I think this discussion touches on some of the reasons. Maybe “Only the Shadow knows.”
    What I think is that PYLD is roughly short the same amount of bonds that it holds long, thinking their superior analysis will win out over time. Reasonable - but unlike anything I’ve seen in a bond fund.
  • Can someone explain PYLD’s apparent negative 90% cash position? What am I missing?
    While I have none of the skills or knowledge to tell you precisely why this is so I went looking around to satisfy my curiosity. I was thinking that it might have something to do with their derivative positions but I don't know.
    Anyway I found THIS
    Maybe it is, maybe it isn't.
  • Can someone explain PYLD’s apparent negative 90% cash position? What am I missing?
    Apologies for the less than perfect cut & paste from M*. But think illustrates the point I’m wondering about. The fund is PYLD - Pimco Multi-Sector Bond ETF. How is it that they’re 190% in fixed income and -90% in cash? The only thing I can think of is leverage. But doubling-down on their bond bets by borrowing so much seems out of character for a fund like this and knowing a bit about the Pimco managers (including Dan Ivascyn). Is there another explanation for this? Shorts? Would they really go short to that 90% extent? Feels like a powder keg. I do not currently own, but am considering it. Little experience with PIMCO. Good reputation. Compared to a fund like JPIE how would you rate the relative risk characteristics?
    Thanks in advance for your thoughts.
    Asset Class Net Short Long Cat. Index
    U.S. Equity 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.39 0.00
    Non-U.S. Equity 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.00
    Fixed Income 190.05 1.74 191.79 112.15 99.98
    Other 0.20 0.00 0.20 0.15 0.00
    Cash -90.25 92.77 2.52 13.39 0.00
    Not Classified 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.42 0.02
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Bought a little CNS and a little GHC stock. The former is a first-time buy and looks pricy to be honest. But I have a high opinion of the outfit. GHC I’ve long watched / messed with. Sold it about $5-10 below the current $690 in December - but figure the cash was worth something over 6 months. Still holding NSRGY. It’s getting clocked today but still a buck or two above my average cost.
  • Thoughts on PSTL, O and PFE?
    Hi PopTart Nice to see you here again. The below chart is for 5 years, for PSTL, O and PFE. Stockcharts still provides Total annualized returns which includes all distributions; to the best of my knowledge. I find similar performance at M*, which I recall is ONLY NAV returns.
    I request that those familiar with these holdings, as several of you also use various charts, to let us know whether they agree with my statement; as I don't want to misguide anyone with data.
    SO, @yogibearbull, @Mark , @msf et al. Does anyone find improper results shown at the chart for the 5 year period. The chart includes the COVID period.
    5 year chart
    Now, the dangerous part. I recall you and your parents have accounts with Fido. Also, whether your parent's account(s) are taxable or not may have some bearing upon choices.
    One could use a real simple FBALX and something like Fido's FBND (total bond) with a 50/50 mix. FBALX may be presumed to be about a 70/30 mix and of course FBND being all bonds.
    FBALX has an indicated yield of about 1.8% and FBND at a 30 day yield of 5.2%, with 61% at AAA bonds.
    FBALX will be subject to draw down with any type of 'melt', but so will most other equity.
    Bonds at this point are a form of insurance, not unlike auto or home insurance (want it when you need it). There isn't a hell of a lot right now for making serious money in bonds, especially after taxes (this doesn't apply to traders). But, bonds will likely smile more in the future; as I think yields will come down again; which will provide price increases.
    REAL WORLD EXAMPLE of keeping simple can be okay.
    We've managed a 529 account since 2006. We set our own investments, being a Vanguard total return domestic equity and Vanguard total return domestic bond indexes at 50/50. The portfolio automatically resets to 50/50 each September. Each index holds several thousand issues. And of course, both holdings traveled through the 2008 and Covid melt periods without portfolio index changes.
    LONG TERM results: 15 year, combined, all distributions re-invested, annualized returns = 8.35%
    YTD, as of last Saturday = 6.74%
    Well, anyway just some jabber for this thread.
    WARNING: errors, spelling and omissions. I'm using a head cold product that may cause one to be a bit out of sorts :).
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Current CDs are Compelling
    I didn't mean to imply that JPMorgan was offering these rates. The only JPMorgan CD Fidelity shows is for one year. But that's at 5.40%, so the bank clearly knows this is the going rate and it could have held onto my money for three more months for less (5.35%).
    The interest was deposited into my brokerage account today (call date), so JPM got no free float. Maybe it couldn't put my money to use (lend it out) at a higher rate right now. Who knows? The bank is apparently happy and I'm getting a higher interest rate. Win-win.
  • Federal Reserve Hacked by LockBit Ransomware
    "BitCoin News" is a twitter account, not a source. According to them, "They have set a deadline of June 25th for the ransom payment." How would the Fed make a ransom payment, exactly? Anyway, today is June 26.
  • Current CDs are Compelling
    I'll see what happens with my JPMorgan CD, possibly called in two days. ...
    I picked it up at the end of last year to hold cash in my inherited Roth for this year's RMD. It locked in a good rate (5.35%) for at least six months (if called) and at most 9 months (maturity). I'm still expecting it not to be called, but if it is I can pick up a 3 or 4 month CD (non-callable) at 5.45%.
    To my surprise, it was called today. I picked up a 5 month CD (maturing at the beginning of Dec, just in time for my RMD) at 5.40%. Fidelity sells "fractional" CDs, so I was able to put the interest I received to work in a 3 month CD at 5.45%.
    Given these rates, I don't understand why JPMorgan called my CD, but I'm not complaining.
    Side note: Does Schwab offer fractional CDs (units of $100 instead of $1000)? I just opened a Schwab account and don't see this product offered.
  • Thoughts on PSTL, O and PFE?
    I don't really want more income being taxed at my marginal rate these days -- so I tend to stick with qualified dividends
    Because of the 20% 199A deduction, REIT income is not taxed at one's marginal rate.
    image
    CCH, Section 199A Qualified Business Deduction
    IRS, Qualified Business Deduction
    The effective rate on REITs is somewhat more than that of qualified divs, even after the 20% discount. There's a still big difference between the tax rate for REITs and for qualified divs for people in the 12% bracket and for high earners. The sweet point, where the rate difference is not so significant, is in the 22%-24% brackets.
    12% bracket: 0% qualified div vs. 9.6% REIT (12% x 80%)
    22%-24% bracket: 15% vs. 17.6% - 19.2%
    32%+ bracket: 15% (or 20%) vs. 25.6%+
    I haven't included the 3.8% Medicare surtax on higher incomes. It wouldn't change the conclusions.
  • Let's gamble, says IBKR
    Gotta keep customers 'engaged' on their platform, right? What's next? In-meeting parlays on FOMC days? Do prospective customers get a promo code and covered up to their first $1000 of bets if they sign up during Jerome's press conference? The possibilities are endless!
    (nb: these are not to be confused with binary equity options that are traded at NADEX, mind you...)
    Per WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/finance/want-to-bet-on-the-cpi-or-jobs-report-a-prediction-market-is-coming-to-this-brokerage-8a174b52?mod=hp_lead_pos6
    The trading platform Interactive Brokers Group is launching contracts that allow customers to wager on future events related to the economy and climate.
    The contracts let users take yes-or-no positions on questions such as whether the consumer-price index will rise above a certain number or if the global temperature will reach a specific level.
    Interactive Brokers’ prediction market, ForecastEx, is set to begin operating July 8, the company said. ForecastEx recently received the necessary approvals from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate. The contracts are a new type of derivative and aren’t securities.
    The contracts that will be available at launch include economic and climate indicators such as the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate, U.S. consumer sentiment, national debt, retail sales and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Interactive Brokers plans to expand to indicators around the world and other topics in the future.
    < - >
    Customers will be able to buy “yes” contracts or “no” contracts based on a stated outcome for an indicator. Contract prices range from 2 cents to 99 cents and fluctuate depending on what users are willing to pay for that outcome.
    When the event concludes—for example, the moment the CPI report is released—the correct contract is worth $1 and the incorrect contract is worth nothing.

    < - >
  • Boaz Weinstein Interview on Bloomberg 6/25/24
    I thought this was pretty interesting. Some unkind words for Blackrock.
    Weinstein’s ETF (CEFS) benefits from his activism on behalf of his shareholders. The fund has done very well, although M* has recently trashed it with a Negative Medalist rating, citing among other things excessive fees. I have no opinion here. Just trying to provide a bit of balance to Weinstein’s comments.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @BaluBalu
    I provided as much detail as I ever have/intend to provide online about our portfolio at this thread:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/177280/#Comment_177280
    Here's an update to our Market Portfolio (MP) after our last two rounds of exchanges last Friday and today:
    The MP is (now 11 OEFs with sale of NEAGX today):
    Stocks/Bonds/Cash: 74/6/20
    Domestic/Foreign: 90/10
    Technology Allocation: 32
    MAG 7 Allocation: 25
    LC/MC/SC: 77/20/3
    V/B/G: 16/33/51
    Suggest taking a look at my post on the linked thread and with a little massaging of the data there and here you should be able to ballpark the answer to your question.
    I kindly ask that any follow up comments or questions about our two ports be done via PM. Thx.
    Thank you very much. Sorry for the trouble. I was only looking for the 74/6/20 info but appreciate the additional detail you included.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @BaluBalu
    I provided as much detail as I ever have/intend to provide online about our portfolio at this thread:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/177280/#Comment_177280
    Here's an update to our Market Portfolio (MP) after our last two rounds of exchanges last Friday and today:
    The MP is (now 11 OEFs with sale of NEAGX today):
    Stocks/Bonds/Cash: 74/6/20
    Domestic/Foreign: 90/10
    Technology Allocation: 32
    MAG 7 Allocation: 25
    LC/MC/SC: 77/20/3
    V/B/G: 16/33/51
    Suggest taking a look at my post on the linked thread and with a little massaging of the data there and here you should be able to ballpark the answer to your question.
    I kindly ask that any follow up comments or questions about our two ports be done via PM. Thx.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @stillers, Thanks for your posts.
    Do you mind clueing us in for why you exited NEAGX? I see the negative momentum with - 1% and -5%, respectively of 3 and 1 month returns. But what is your expectation going forward that caused you to throw in the towel? Just getting rid of the super high beta within the high beta fare?
    Do you mind sharing, after today’s trades, your overall portfolio allocation between equity and fixed income. For this purpose, if you do not mind, please include all money market, CDs, and Treasuries, if any, into fixed income.
    Thanks again.
  • Range-bound portfolio. Anyone else? Comparing notes
    My portfolio is taxable and is primarily buy and hold. High yield stock and utility stock sleeves were added to it in 2020 and were funded during 2020 and the first part of 2021. Most of the dividends earned are released for personal use. Fido says the portfolio is currently 73% invested in stocks. It is overweight in REITs, Financials, Energy, and Utilities (the Financial and Energy sector investments include BDCs and LPs). The portfolio's YTD total returns have averaged between perhaps 40% and 75% of the SP500 with the direction of its trend line in general corresponding with the trend line of the SP500. The portfolio fares better on a relative basis when the bond market focuses on the prospect the Fed may begin to cut interest rates sooner rather than later (or "never"). It will probably benefit more on a relative basis if the Fed actually does begin to cut interest rates as the REIT sector will likely stop being shunned.
  • Federal Reserve Hacked by LockBit Ransomware
    the scale of russia-affiliated cybercrime is speculated far below pre-ukraine war trajectory.
    u.s. and allies presumably have used the war to coordinate offensive attacks on a massive scale, knowing cybercrime's role in compensating for sanctions.
    for attribution impact, governments dont much like this kind of publicity.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/15/us/politics/hacking-russian-intelligence-routers.html
  • off to Morningstar!
    Baird has several good muni bond funds.
    Although 30 bps is not the lowest expense ratio, it is quite reasonable.
    Morningstar indicates 0.30% falls within the least expensive fee quintile
    in the US National Intermediate-Term Muni Bond category.
    The category median expense ratio is 0.49%.
    Several Baird muni funds have performed well even after considering the associated "extra costs."
    BMNIX vs. VWIUX vs. MUB
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=4qwLtot4btyXIM0kQgAIqW
    BMNIX vs. VWIUX vs. BSNIX vs. MUB
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=1HFhIxDHpoJLGoiYFM2fd7
    BMNIX vs. VWIUX vs. BMQIX vs. MUB
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=5iJEIzG7j2YRfu2eB8XERf
  • Capital Group’s Gitlin (Interview) // How do their offerings compare to others?
    @MikeM
    A bit over five years ago. He was a one man investment firm. I am sure he charged the usual 1.25% of assets or so and may have still used mutual funds with sig fees
  • Capital Group’s Gitlin (Interview) // How do their offerings compare to others?
    ”He was a nice enough guy but I didn't see why my investment dollars had to pay for the frequent all expense paid luxury trips he was always going on to American Fund events.”
    About 15-20 years ago I followed a fella off a plane at Key West airport. Dressed to kill & carrying a briefcase labeled “T. Rowe Price” with a blinking red or green light on it. Looked like it was getting ready to blow. And the attire was definitely out of sync with the atmosphere & climate there … :)