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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Savita Subramanian: large cap value is the place to be for the next five years
    @catch22, thank you for the readable charts. VTV is still running ahead of VUG as of the last data drop at MFO premium to the end of June.
    You ask "is this investment area really a solid 'trend' and/or rotation?" And I am reminded of a recent comment by Howard Marks highlighted in this thread (dinky linky.) "Investors should understand that the investment environment and the starting point for investments have a huge impact on their success."
    People putting their money down at the end of 2021/beginning of 2022 might have different opinions about value versus growth than those of us playing around with various start times. The person that bought dumpy old FGRIX is probably tickled about his 12.5 return versus the 8.8 return of SPY, or the 7.5 return of VUG, his smarter friends bought. And there is no reason to assume that his smarter friends will ever catch up, though they will pound the table.
    Of course FGRIX is only 35% value per M* although Lipper labels it LCV. There are plenty of other funds on the list that might better fit someone's definition of value. That old passive curiosity LEXCX returned 10.5.
  • Savita Subramanian: large cap value is the place to be for the next five years
    @WABAC and BenWP I've added to two other performance charts for different time frames when Value could have provided some 'head fakes'.
    --- Chart line colors likely vary by device type; but my laptop, for my very good eyes show red, a lime green and blue. Also, one may hover a pointer over the graph line at any point to 'see' the name of the fund/etf.
    VUG vs VTV vs SPY (a reference choice) This chart is for 2 years and covers the full years of 2022 and 2023.
    This chart is for the beginning of the COVID period and covers the full years of 2020 and 2021.
    'Course, I'm showing these as time frames for various periods which can cause any of us who may want to make decisions in 'real time'. A tough road, for sure. Being, is this investment area really a solid 'trend' and/or rotation?
    BIAS NOTE: We've been mostly U.S. centric investors for many years and fully since the melt of 2008. This includes equity and bonds. We obtain small pieces of international exposure via U.S. fund holdings. The 'other' bias is that we've been oriented to growth. 'Course there have a few scary periods for growth investors.
  • Investing in 'Rule of Law' countries
    ahh...so the lawfare didn't work...Orange Man still standing (ya, I'll give you so far anyways)...and how come no one on this board is writing about how Biden does not have the stamina nor cognition for the role...and who is really running the country..the Bolshie Ron Klain, Jill Biden? and their diversity pick for VP is obviously not competent either so therefore all the angst, no?
    Biden's presidency has been a total and complete flop...everything from intentionally opening the border to illegals consisting of who knows whom, a disaster re foreign policy, wars, emboldening Iran, not negotiating effectively prior to Putin marching into Ukraine, inflation up the wazoo which continues, using lawfare against his political opponents, out of control crime (don't BS me with false statistics, reporting of serious crime has been downgraded for the optics and many blue cities don't even report to the FBI stats anymore), freebies on the taxpayers dime, reducing school debt for many who make decent monies, what about the plumbers who didn't go to school to chase skirts and drink beer and screw off for 5 years?...and watching the debate...who in their right mind would think he is capable of holding office right now, let alone in the future?
  • "Markets have false sense of security"
    Sure, take out the engine of the world, and things will look different.
    Value has been lagging for about 15 years now.
    But one day.... :-)
  • Starting Yields Are Predictive of Bond TR...
    ...but starting fwd P/E not so for stocks. Twitter LINK
    This is a good illustration of the well-known bond Rule of Thumb that initial yields approximate the TR over the duration (AGG duration 6).
    Shown https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GRkhkOuXsAAkAPh?format=jpg&name=large
    Not shown https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GRkhoOlXkAEzkLm?format=jpg&name=small
    image
  • Savita Subramanian: large cap value is the place to be for the next five years
    In the ratio chart of VUG:VTV,
    up-trend = growth outperforming, 01/2023-now
    down-trend = growth underperforming, 11/2021-01/2023
    flat-trend = both performing in-line; not seen for long as the two are opposites
    See longer 5 yrs at StockCharts (can use even earlier dates),
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VUG:VTV&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p35418833536
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/3/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/3/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (41.7%, above average) & bearish became the bottom sentiment (26.1%, below average); neutral became the middle sentiment (32.2%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +15.6% (above average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (123+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (38+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds flat, oil up, gold up, dollar down. Speculations continue about the Democratic ticket. In UK elections, Labour is ahead of Conservatives (incumbents). Paramount/NAI & Skydance deal is back. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1542/thread
  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has just launched an ETF that offers 100% downside protection to investors. The new ETF (MAXJ) will have its maximum gains capped at 10.6% while protecting against the downside for a duration of 12 months. 0.5% ER
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/how-good-is-blackrock-s-new-100-downside-hedge-etf/ar-BB1pdRfO?ocid=BingNewsSerp
  • Savita Subramanian: large cap value is the place to be for the next five years
    It represents one form of relative performance of USA growth vs value stocks. Growth has trounced value as we all know but in market sell offs value holds up better. Where are we now in that growth vs value cycle? Not at the bottom.
    Now that I can see all three lines, it looks to me like one Vanguard index has trounced another Vanguard index over five years spanning rapidly changing market conditions.
    If I had bought VSMIX or GQEPX five years ago I would be ahead of VUG. There may be other examples of funds that have performed better over the last five years. Those are just two that are on my watch list. I'll admit that only one of those is a value fund.
    If we were to look at the last three years, during which growth has been digging itself out of a very large hole, a number of funds in my watch list outperform VUG. Only two outperform IWY.
    I spent the last year ditching Vanguard index funds.
    Edit to add:
    Did a larger search at MFO Premium. Add HIMDX to the list of three funds that beat VUG over five years. The interesting thing about HIMDX is that it is a quant fund. Wouldn't we like to see the inside of their black box?
    But what if we went back three years? There are 20 value, or equity income, funds that are beating VUG.
    What if we went back to the start of "Normalization 2" which is 202112? Then we get a much larger number of value and equity income funds that are still beating VUG's return of 7.5 over that time period. (Lipper categorizes some funds as value that M* sees as blend.)
    People assume that growth will continue to beat value just because. But, as with comedy, timing is everything.
  • "Markets have false sense of security"

    As LTC Hal Moore said at the Battle of Ia Drang Valley, "Nothing's wrong ... except there's nothing's wrong."
    I agree the markets are treading water and churning - there is a false sense of security forming, but at least it's not overwhelmed with bullish exuberance. Maybe that's b/c of the geopolitical and electoral climate around the world this year?

    All you have to see is a nice uptrend of the SP500 chart since 11/2023(
    link).
    To clarify: My comments reflect my accounts (income-oriented, value equities), not the broad market.
    That said, take out the Mag-7 and that chart will look a lot different, I bet.
  • "Markets have false sense of security"

    As LTC Hal Moore said at the Battle of Ia Drang Valley, "Nothing's wrong ... except there's nothing's wrong."
    I agree the markets are treading water and churning - there is a false sense of security forming, but at least it's not overwhelmed with bullish exuberance. Maybe that's b/c of the geopolitical and electoral climate around the world this year?
    All you have to see is a nice uptrend of the SP500 chart since 11/2023(link).
  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    Thanks, @Devo, for the explanation about CPSJ construction.
    I am not averse to paying fees but I would rather buy an investment grade fixed income product that more guarantees to give me a 6% return at the end of the measurement period than CPSJ's promised variable 0-9% return.
    I shall keep an eye on CPSM and see how close to $25 (inception price) it gets if SPY were to drop to April 30 closing price.
    For any future purchases of these Calamos products, I intend to compare them to then available fixed income prospects.
  • Savita Subramanian: large cap value is the place to be for the next five years
    VUG vs VTV vs SPY chart total returns. 5 years.
    Value may remain value for good reasons and not yet ready for 'prime time'.
  • Bloomberg - Key JP Morgan strategist leaving after series of failed calls
    ”JPMorgan's chief global market strategist and co-head of global research, Marko Kolanovic, is leaving the bank, according to an internal memo obtained by Bloomberg News. The move follows a disastrous two-year stretch of stock-market calls by Kolanovic. He was steadfastly bullish in much of 2022 as the S&P 500 Index sank 19% and strategists across Wall Street lowered their expectations for equities. He then turned bearish just as the market bottomed, missing last year's 24% surge in the S&P 500 as well as the 14% gain in the first half of this year.”
    (This brief market news update was excerpted in its entirety from subscription based Bloomberg Media July 3, 2024)
  • Investing in 'Rule of Law' countries
    We are screwed. Well and truly screwed. Thanks to the "supreme" court the United States is no longer the democracy that it has been since it's birth... that chapter is now closed. The next chapter is likely similar to many of those "well run" "financially stable" African or South American third-world countries whose fortunes swing wildly with every new tinpot "president" they choose. Or, in many cases, who is "chosen" for them.
    Well-said, OJ. And again, it's the GQP who bleat about how we're becoming a "third world country" and "bananna republic" when it's their own idiotic shenanigans that are paving the way for that eventuality.
    Even though I have a fantastic view from my place, part of me is hoping the weather waters down the DC fireworks tomorrow night as a symbol of what our present reality (and future) might be.
    So once again, the GQP, enabled by the SCOTUS, has turned the country backwards in time, as this recent meme explains....
    56-CB6-F1-C-FAC7-472-D-818-E-D80-E24-FD5-AE8
  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    Now, let's talk about how the product can be created.
    1. ETF provider asks you for $100 today.
    2. 1yr interest rate in the options market is about 5.35%
    3. If I invest $94.93 in some T-bill like options combinations I will get $100 in exactly 1yr time {94.93*(1+5.35%)}
    4. After I am done investing the $94.93 (which by the way guarantees you 100% principal protection), I have $5.07 remaining
    5. Now I also want to charge you some fees of 0.7%
    6. After charging you $0.7 in fees, I have $4.36 remaining
    7. I use that $4.37 to buy a SPY call spread
    8. With CPSJ, ETF provider could buy a 100%-108.76% call spread on the SPY, which roughly relates to 546-593 Call Spread for $4.37
    So, now, that's your ETF.
    ETF provider gets 70cents of fees
    You get your principal protection bcos 94.93 of your 100 was used to buy "Tbill" in the options market
    You get 8.76% upside for the next 1 year.
    I hope this helps.
    (You can be your own ETF provider. Put 95 in TBills for 1yr and use the remaining 5 to buy Call Spreads). We can call your ETF "BLUJ" for Balu July.
    PS: let me know when you are ready to send me my check for 70 cents. I accept all forms of payment
  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    @Balubalu first CPSM. Can you see this chart? it shows that since May 1 the SPY is up 10.19% and the CPSM up about 3% This doesnt mean CPSM wont deliver. it needs time a full year to give you the capped 9.65% its promised if SPY stays at these levels. But in the meantime dont expect the ETF to grow with the SPY.
    imageCPSM-SPY-chart" />
  • the July / post-Morningstar issue of MFO is live
    @Devo, that shortened link is fine as a link.
    But it won't work in the MFO Image tool to post the image here , only the full image-url would work (I am not doing this intentionally).
    https://i.ibb.co/7rGbHRJ/Screenshot-2024-07-03-at-5-13-29-PM.png
    There are other differences in these 2 links.
  • the July / post-Morningstar issue of MFO is live
    @sma3 hard to compare artgx as a replacement for artkx. artgx has a 45% North America allocation (which I think includes the 8.6% in cash money market ). ARTKX has 12% in North American and I think all of that is just cash money market.
    Since their 10-year performance is similar, I tend to agree that ARTGX's international picks must have been less rewarding than ARTKX's.
    ideally we want to look at the historical holdings or better still average historical holdings but I dont have the fool proof set of tools for that yet.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Thanks for answering my question @WABAC . I could live with 6.55 return.
    de nada @Derf. I'll add that returns have been skimmpier these past few years.