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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • September Commentary, The Young Investor’s Indolent Portfolio
    @WABAC and @yogibearbull
    Too early in the day for me, I do think. The 2 holdings (50/50) portfolio indicates a 31.9% annualized return! Is this number generated as such from the $6,500 annual contribution setting?; which would equate a Roth contribution.
    Thank you.
  • Duke premier notes
    Any fresh thoughts re investing a few bucks here?
    A number of companies package up variable rate demand notes into bank account-like accounts. Features may vary slightly (e.g. min required, check writing ability, min transaction amount) but the underlying investments are similar as are the way these accounts work.
    Companies that offer these accounts seem to be rated BBB or A and are using these accounts as a relatively cheap way to get cash. Some BBBs: Duke, Dominion, GM, and Ford. Some As: Toyota, Mercedes-Benz (only accredited investors), and Caterpillar
    A couple of webpages from 2021 on these types of investments:
    MyMoneyBlog: https://www.mymoneyblog.com/big-list-of-car-demand-notes-non-fdic.html
    Bogleheads thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=340088
    And a 2021 WSJ article cited in the Bogleheads thread (subscription or library card required):
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/car-maker-notes-attract-investors-seeking-short-term-yield-11605781801
    Called "variable denomination floating rate demand notes," the securities are basically unsecured bonds, paid by the company's cash from operations. There is no public market and investors can typically withdraw their money at will. Rates can be changed at any time by the company, which can call the securities at its discretion.
    What's the risk?
    For my money (pun intended), I'd rather go with a Treasury MMF yielding around 5.1%; since it's state tax exempt that's not much different from 5.5% fully taxable and a whole lot safer.
    https://olui2.fs.ml.com/Publish/Content/application/pdf/GWMOL/ICCRateSheet.pdf
    If I had to go with a single issuer, I'd look at the A rated companies.
    A nuclear accident that bankrupts the company?
    Not likely.
    [The] Price-Anderson [Act has since 1957 freed] nuclear plant operators and all firms involved in nuclear construction and maintenance of any liability for offsite accident damage. The only chance for additional compensation lies in the act’s declaration that if accident damages exceed the legal limit “Congress will thoroughly review the particular incident” and will “take whatever action is determined to be necessary” to provide full compensation to the public. In short, a Fukushima-level accident would toss the costs of compensation and cleanup unto the lap of Congress.
    https://thebulletin.org/2020/02/the-us-government-insurance-scheme-for-nuclear-power-plant-accidents-no-longer-makes-sense/
    This was recently extended (for another 40 years) and expanded with little publicity. It's a sizeable and relatively unknown industry subsidy.
    What was publicized were billions of dollars allocated in the Inflation Reduction Act for maintaining existing nuclear plants and building new ones.
    https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/inflation-reduction-act-keeps-momentum-building-nuclear-power
  • September Commentary, The Young Investor’s Indolent Portfolio
    What's more fun than complaining about kids these days? I say: Giving the indolent ne'er do wells advice they won't take.
    Here are what I call Grumpy Grampy's Simple Portfolios for Widows, Orphans, and Kids that probably don't wash behind their ears. Can Grumpy Gramp's portfolios beat the clones? Let's find out together.
    The first mimics the beta of the ICMUX/FPACX: Dinky linky.
    And this portfolio mimics the beta of the LCORX/RPHYX portfolio: YADL.
    Disclaimer: I am not a grandfather or an investment advisor.
    Edit to add: PV does not seem to be accounting for fixed annuals contributions of 6500$. Suggestions and solutions are welcomed
  • Duke premier notes
    I'd be hesitant to go into floating-rate anything right now given that rates are due to go down....but that .25 'bonus' on the note might keep you ahead of (or at least at-par) with rate cuts. And for me, right now I'd prefer something more tax advantaged -- these are taxed both at federal and state.
    Nothing against Duke as a company - I'd rather buy a note from them than a Wall Street company.
  • Berkshire Hathaway: A mutual fund in disguise?
    I track it daily, but don’t own it. I can’t remember it sustaining a -2.85% single day hit like today in the years I’ve tracked it - but am sure there have been some. It will be interesting to watch this one in coming days and see how it performs relative to the broader market. I don’t really understand it very well, which is the main reason I don’t own it. But have tremendous admiration for Buffett and BRK’s long term stellar performance.
  • September Commentary, The Young Investor’s Indolent Portfolio
    @David_Snowball, I guess I don't see anything simple about advising beginning investors to spend a lot of ER money on funds that successfully short the NASDAQ every once in a while, but can't out-perform Devo's replicating portfolio exercise on much of anything over any period of time.
    On the one hand we have the 500 "best" companies in America and three-month T-Bills. What is corrosive about cash?
    OTOH we have bonds, preferreds, derivatives, shorts, hedges, puts, options, junk, and assorted gyrations the BRAINIACs invest in that are less corrosive, and can be sold to buy a new set of tires if you need cash without taking much of a loss?
  • Americans Are Really, Really Bullish on Stocks
    Thanks @Observant1 for the “probing” article on Americans’ current love affair with stocks. In reading I became curious about the author. From the linked article: “The typical salary for a journalist in the United States is $49,887 per year”. Had no idea they were so underpaid.
    Gunjan Banerji was born in 1992. For some perspective …. That year Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week was completing its 22nd season on PBS. 5 years had passed since the global stock market “flash crash” of ‘87. She would have been 6 or 7 when the tech sector sizzled and 8 when the bubble burst in 2000. (Maybe some nervous playground banter?) She would have been 16 in 2008 during the depths of “the great financial crisis” (and subsequent 50%+ drop in the S&P). No doubt, this great unwinding of stock market mania was discussed / analyzed to extent in her high school business / social studies classes during these teen-age formative years.
  • September Commentary, The Young Investor’s Indolent Portfolio
    Hi, guys.
    Mostly, given the Morningstar research and my own preferences, I was shooting for two parameters: (1) maximum simplicity hence 50/50 and (2) a multi-asset manager who might make some adjustments to moderate risk as things evolved. Too, I've spoken to a bunch of managers who are corrosively skeptical about the weaknesses of a debt-weighted passive index. Absent those constraints, Vanguard Balanced Index would be the logical choice.
    Really, anything we can do to get anxious young investors to take the first, tentative step, would be wonderful. Colleges are hiring faculty later in life (our "youngsters" are starting 5-7 years later than I did) and they're not starting to save until their mid-30s. I spend a lot of time cheerleading for "take the first small step".
    David
  • September Commentary, The Young Investor’s Indolent Portfolio
    Time to bring out Devo's replicating portfolio exercise.
    A 50/50 portfolio of LCORX and RPHYX generate a beta of .26 over ten years. So the clone is 26% SPY and 74% the 3 month T-Bill. Here is the result: Dinky linky.
    The second portfolio recommends a 50/50 split of FPACX and ICMUX. The clone works out to 46% SPY and 54% 3 month t-bills. Here is the result of that run: YADL.
    What advice would you give any indolent youths known to you?
    Edit to add: PV does not seem to be accounting for fixed annuals contributions of 6500$. Suggestions and solutions are welcomed
  • Duke premier notes
    You may also want to check out the "raisin" platform in which all funds are kept in fdic banks and where you can easily transfer between banks to get the highest savings rate. You get a little less in interest but it is all insured. Current highest apy is 5.20 with Western Alliance Bank. I keep my emergency fund amounts here (1 year living expenses) and have been quite happy with the accounts. Just google - raisin.com if interested. good luck.
  • PRWCX availability
    @msf, my 401k from a past employer transferred from TRP to ML last year. I've only kept the 401k because I cannot transfer PRWCX in-kind from a 401k to an IRA. The odd thing about the ML 401k account is the account is not direct from the Merrill Lynch website. It is in something called "Merrill Benefits Online". To be quite honest, the ML benefits options and website suck. I really don't like the arrangement but have kept it because it is where I have PRWCX.
    I have tried a few times to add to PRWCX through this ML Benefits site and have been denied. I tried today after seeing this post and, low and behold, it took. And yes, with a $49.95 TF. I'll know tomorrow if it really went through.
  • September Commentary Ben Carlson's chart
    @Sma3. All good points. This old retired guy thinks that the 50/ 50 allocation the 4% rule is based on to too aggressive for sleeping well. I am thinking more in terms of dollars at risk instead of %. A 15% decline sounds sorta benign compared to that number express in raw dollars of our nest egg.
  • September Commentary Ben Carlson's chart
    This old retired guy looked at Carlson's chart for the number of years it took to consistently made 4% ( one recommended withdrawal rate ) or more on average over the preceding period.
    In other words how long after a major loss would it take to get back to over 4% return on average to equal your withdrawals
    Out of the 31 years listed in 9 years you would have to wait over 5 years to get back to over 4% average return
    In 2000 you had to wait 14 years before your ave returned to over 4%
    One wonders if the recommended "three to five years of expenses in cash" is sufficient.
    The SP500 didn't permanently recover to it's 2000 peak until 2012
  • PRWCX availability
    For existing positions only or wide open??
    Wide open, for a mere 35$ simoleans.
    I was looking to see if they had DODBX, and up popped PRWCX as an open fund.
  • PRWCX availability
    Thanks for the heads-up @WABAC. I have wanted to add-to PRWCX in my 401k at Merrill forever. It would never allow me to do so in the past. I just put in an order to do so. Seems to have been accepted. Has a $49 TF but I'm ok with that. Fingers crossed it goes through.
    Wow. In my ML accounts, it is NTF. Even for TF funds, I have to pay "just" $19.95.
    Must be some special "discount" you get with your 401(k) plan :-(
  • “Other” in Fido’s analytics tool?
    (Excerpted from Fidelity’s Glossary of Terms
    Other-The "Other" category includes non-asset class holdings (i.e., other than stocks, bonds, and short-term investments), including, without limitation, derivative securities, options, preferreds, convertibles, warrants, and precious metals, as well as some Internal Revenue Code Section 529 qualified tuition program (529 plan) investment trust holdings.”
    Other Holdings-Any interest held in a selected account that cannot be placed within one of the following categories: Equity, Fixed Income, Cash, Mutual Fund, or Exchange Traded Product (ETP).”

    My attempt to sort these components out on a specific fund basis was unsuccessful.
    Added - Follow-up Ques:
    * Can we assume that if your fund invests in commodities or real estate it is likely doing so through derivatives and so those investments would be included under Fidelity’s “other” classification?
  • September Commentary, The Young Investor’s Indolent Portfolio
    @Charles, good to see addition of eTF benchmarks (eTF to avoid confusion with MFO Premium ticker ETF - not recognized at Yahoo Finance, Morningstar, etc).
    Just to clarify my understanding of the related MFO Premium data, these new benchmarks are used to assess relative performance only, and the MPT stats are largely unchanged. So, we see various levels of depth of data, but no additional column added for the eTF benchmarks.
    R vs peer, BF BM, SP500, etc (widest possible benchmarks)
    beta vs SP500, BF BM
    alpha vs ? (unspecified; Definitions generically mention benchmark)
    Of course, SD isn't benchmark dependent. Similar for Sharpe Ratio.
    MFO Risk is also relative to overall market "as defined by SP500 index".
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 9/4/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 9/4/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (45.3%, high) & bearish became the bottom sentiment (20.4%, low); neutral became the middle sentiment (29.8%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +20.4% (high). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (132+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (47+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds up, oil down, gold down, dollar flat. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 61.38% (positive). Large divergence between 2-yr at 3.76% & fed funds 5.25-5.50% (2-yr is an indicator of where the fed fund rates may be headed in a few months). #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1640/thread
  • Berkshire Hathaway: A mutual fund in disguise?
    From my memory of the last Q, BRK has about $600b in investments + cash. So, the operating businesses are being valued by the markets at $400b. They make about $40-50b (annualized) in profits.