I introduced the phrase on a prior post I think last week. Starting to think it has real merit: buffoon-induced black swan event. This one we kinda knew had wings for a while now, so we ain't quite there yet, but likely soon will be.
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-expected-to-open-lower-after-trump-tariffs-end-self-delusion-in-markets-ed9f5452?mod=mw_latestnews
(Subscription)
Excerpt:
Stock futures appeared headed to another “large gap down” on the daily charts following the news, said analysts at U.K.-based Matrix Trade, in a note. A gap on the daily chart occurs when an asset opens above or below its trading range from the previous session. Stocks opened sharply lower last week as investors reacted to China startup DeepSeek’s artificial-i-intelligence advance.
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https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-tariffs-inflation-trade-war-grocery-bills-cars-ba66b33e?mod=djem_b_Weekly Barrons feed for last 24 hours
(Subscription)
Excerpt:
The hit to markets will depend on what comes next—how Trump responds to retaliation, whether tariffs are lifted swiftly in response to dealmaking, and what’s to come on other trade fronts.
Some analysts say the markets weren’t prepared for the upheaval. “The currency markets will have massive move as the Mexico and Canada moves weren’t expected,” says Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data via email. “Then the question is if the equity market can handle it.”
Rebecca Patterson, former chief investment strategist at Bridgewater and independent director at Vanguard, says this opening salvo will increase inflation uncertainty and “make the Fed more cautious about its next policy decisions.” More uncertainty about growth could lead consumers and businesses to move more cautiously, she adds, and will be reflected in higher bond term premiums, “and less optimism about equities, especially those industries most exposed to tariffs. I also would expect the dollar to strengthen. ”

In terms of investments, this Canada/Mexico fubar is my investing tipping point. I’m holding 35% in equities but willing to drop to 30% on Monday if a market dive doesn’t happen.

With all the craziness happening these past two weeks, I had intended to move a significant percentage of equities to our mmkt acct on Friday, but chose to wait and see at the last moment. Sheesh! Foolish me!

I'm less than half now in stocks. A bit more in bonds. Slowly growing MM in dribs and drabs, but for a specific goal. The whole rest of the world thinks the USA has lost its mind and become worthy of suspicion, now. I wonder when the recession-depression will start?
I take some solace knowing the Big Money Thieves will do what they must to protect their own investments. My relative pittance might by the same token not be wiped out. Fingers crossed.

rosenberg takeaway :
- his past models were wrong, in that they did not predict sentiment would move the equity risk premium to zero or negative. (currently 3X historic annual growth, for next 5 years, is priced into valuations)
- many canadian stocks are better bargains than u.s., given valuations and exchange rates. exposed to many identical themes.
- models expects recession (2026?) and unemployment spike, suppressing inflation.
- midterm safe bonds are in a good risk:reward position compared to u.s. equities.
my inferior intuition is screaming that inflation is not so easily killed as long as nearshoring is supported, and it will move violently through different sectors as always.

I believe I posted something similar to @rforno’s Bloomberg data back on January 27 under @Mark’s ”Howard Marks” thread. Here it is (scroll up a bit).
Re: the ongoing discussion (as much about sources as NVDA), I’d agree cable “financial” television is pretty worthless, often inaccurate, slanted or misleading. Most days a parade of clowns talking their book sums it up nicely. Subscribers to Bloomberg’s online resources and print stories, however, fare much better. There are troves of data on virtually every global market and continuous updates 24/7. Bloomberg has the same in depth research tools (stocks, funds, etc) you’ll find at the WSJ and elsewhere. It’s a bit pricy at $329 yearly. Wonder how many here read it?
I read Bloomberg, the WSJ and Barron’s. Also subscribe to a daily financial blog and a monthly financial newsletter. I read The Observer every month. Taken together these sources more than meet my investment appetite & needs. However, our financial situation, education level, amount of wealth managed and available time all influence where we look for financial information.
I think Bloomberg’s paid subscription website does deserve a place somewhere in the hierarchy of financial news sources for average investors. Please do not conflate it with the on-air circus. If folks here have favorite sources to recommend perhaps they will provide links.
Regarding NVDIA. The data @rforno (and I earlier) posted was designed to catch eyeballs. Not the only way to view it of course. @BaluBalu is spot-on that the percentage moves were greater when the stock had a much lower market cap.

I'm waiting for FOTUS to use America's need for Ozempic/Wegovy as a cudgel to threaten Denmark over Greenland. IE, I'm going to tariff these pharmaceuticals 500% until you give us Greenland! Will Denmark care about the wailing of patients in America? *shrug*
I'm sure the thought has crossed his mind.

We will take control of Panama canal with Panama agreeing willingly or by force - will reduce transportation costs. Deregulation will reduce the operating costs.

I find it ironic that those who support taking over the canal (which, btw, is professionally managed, charges reasonable fees, and is considered by many to be better run now than when the US government was in charge) in part because of nearby port investments by other countries are also more likely to support deep cuts in foreign aid and foreign investment. Soft power can be just as, if not more, effective (and with much less loss of life and destruction) than military action for purely economic gain.

The 10% on China announced yesterday are on top of the Tariffs already in place. For an apples to apples comparison, are the Tariffs lower on Chinese products than on border countries' products? Another way to look at it is, total $ Tariffs imposed as a percentage of total imports.
US trade rep / Commerce Dept website probably will have accurate and updated information.
I expect Tariffs on China to be higher if not equal to that on border countries but someone can post the info when available.
Over the past six-seven years a lot of Chinese manufacturers have moved their operations to other Asian countries and continue to be under (direct or indirect) China / CCP control.
It would be good to know how have forum members changed or plan to change their portfolio because of the Tariffs. Your reaction can be very targeted to specific tickers, sectors, or market as a whole. For example, you decreased or plan to decrease your equity allocation because you think Tariffs will dampen (slow down) the economic activity in the US and / or cut into gross margins of US companies.

I too am wondering. Why 25% on Canadian and Mexican products and "only" 10% on Chinese products?

Rick,
When not in a recession or SPX not in a bear market, the largest single day decline for NVDA stock was 35% which in August 2004. There were two other worse declines in similar circumstances than the decline on Monday (16.4%), which happens to be the 9th worst in its history.
Now you can see the value of Gloomberg reporting in the OP. I am not singling out Gloomberg.

Maybe, but NVDA's market cap in 2004 was *nowhere* what it is nowdays, so a 35% drop then would probably be tiny compared to even a 15% drop today, yes?
'Gloomberg ...' *chuckle* Still more useful than the Clownish Network for Business Chatter!

Late December, bought into Panamanian Exchange Bank. BLX. I'm waiting and seeing. I'm a little itchy. The Orange Fool is indeed dismantling the gov't. It is a coup d'etat. No one can tell me he's not following Project 2025 playbook. Monday will be absolutely dreadful in world Markets. Inflation is coming back in a serious way.
Another thought re: tariffs: if imported goods are going to cost more, you can bet domestic vendors are going to raise prices, to a point just under what the imports cost. Amazing and fabulous capitalism. Everyone was maybe hoping that deregulation would help the Markets, but he is sowing nutso chaos. Plain and simple.

I think Monday is going to be a mess... Down a LOT. It's not just tariffs, he's dismantling the government. Down so much it might actually get his attention... we shall see.

If so, you can bet he'll blame Biden or Congressional Democrats, or DEI, or some marginalized social group, or anything other than HIM and his IDIOCY.....

icym, and there is more
https://x.com/zestular/status/1885478768787005534/photo/1

No change in my asset allocation (wait & see).
Tariffs doesn't bother me - it will be temporary. Most of the countries run trade deficit with US, export economy countries will suffer more (Example-Colombia). Our prices will not increase much - companies will eat some cost (they will get tax benefit to offset the increased cost). We will take control of Panama canal with Panama agreeing willingly or by force - will reduce transportation costs. Deregulation will reduce the operating costs. I consider it as consumption tax (since we don't have VAT, more than 50% population don't pay income taxes). I am looking at tax cuts which will more than offset cost increase due to tariff.

NVDA had 8 of the top 10 market cap losses in one day.
NVDA also had 5 of the top 10 market cap gains in one day.
Skip to the 4:37 mark for NVDA info/chart.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0DR2TnvIIk

My current understanding of his vision suggests that -- due to its unique position among the world's nations -- imposing both substantial across the board and targeted tariffs will prove to be beneficial for the United States.
If by beneficial you mean "less bad", then others agree.

while tariffs are predicted to inflict pain on all three nations, they would cause more damage to Canada and Mexico, smaller economies that are deeply dependent on the United States.
...
Economists predict that the initial effect would be negative for all three nations, which are bound by a free-trade agreement known as USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada).
...
Here’s what tariffs could mean for each country.

• United States
• Canada
• Mexico

All links are into NYTimes article:
How Could Trump’s Tariffs Affect the U.S., Canada and Mexico?

Rick,
When not in a recession or SPX not in a bear market, the largest single day decline for NVDA stock was 35% which in August 2004. There were two other worse declines in similar circumstances than the decline on Monday (16.4%), which happens to be the 9th worst in its history.
Now you can see the value of Gloomberg reporting in the OP. I am not singling out Gloomberg.

FOTUS was hell-bent to get 'a better deal' for America in his first terme by renegotiating NAFTA. At least then there was industry consultation and a traditional diplomatic/commercial negotiation process. So now he's blowing up HIS deal that HE 'negotiated' for the same reason? I call shenanigans.
These 'tariffs' are just the Sundowning Florida Man throwing arbitrary and ill-informed tantrums to show the world that there are somethings that 'I alone' have the ability to do -- I have power, I have to use it. He needs foreign or 'other' bogeymen and perceived 'threats' from the 'other' to justify his flailings, so this is what we get. How long before 'fetanayl' becomes 'foreign DEI' as his existential crisis du jour?
Some of his more rational advisors I'm sure are going nuts over the Canada tariffs though ... especially over oil. Let the middle of the country (and his base) suffer for it. (Look at SOBO's pipeline map). He wants to lower inflation and the price of goods? Sure, tariffs will fix that riiiiiight up for ya, buddy. Wait for it -- and remember whose signature is on the orders that did that. (Hint: it's not Biden or Obama or the Democrats in Congress.)
Yet he said yesterday “Tariffs don’t cause inflation. They cause success....Tariffs are going to make us very rich and very strong.” IDIOT.
WaPo notes that "only 1.5 percent of migrants apprehended by U.S. Customs and Border Protection in the 2024 fiscal year and 0.2 percent of fentanyl seized at U.S. borders came from Canada" and suggests that's just a canard pretense to justify his actions to his cult.
I never believed he would start WW3 with our adversaries. However it is entirely likely he'll do so with our allies. Up is down, down is up, and you did not see that with your own eyes, people.
Elect a clown, and the government becomes a circus. It'd be funny if it wasn't so dangerous.
Oh ... just saw this tidbit:
"The GOP also expects to factor in Trump’s tariffs as revenue that will reduce the[ir spending/tax plan] legislation’s price tag."
So the GQP has swallowed FOTUS' idiocy that tariff money goes straight into the US Treasury. MORE IDIOTS.

The Week in Charts (01/31/25)
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:48 Topics
01:57 A One-Day Panic Over DeepSeek
08:32 Microsoft/Meta/Tesla/Apple Earnings
16:25 Slower Growth, but the Expansion Continues
20:25 The Fed Pause Is Here
26:32 Houses Taking Longer to Sell
29:00 DOGE Saving $1 Billion a Day?
32:15 Using Tariffs as a Tool
35:02 More Affordable Rents
Video
Blog

The illegal crossing of migrants and the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. were the irritants Trump named when he first threatened to slap Canada and Mexico with 25 per cent tariffs last fall. Government officials say less than one per cent of each enters the U.S. from Canada. [Immigration Minister] Miller acknowledged on Friday they no longer believe border concerns to be at the heart of Trump’s tariff threats.
...
Earlier in the day, fresh uncertainty had been injected into an already volatile situation following a report by Reuters, citing three unnamed sources, that Trump was expected to announce Canada and Mexico would face tariffs on their imports beginning March 1 ...
“I was just with the President in the Oval Office, and I can confirm that tomorrow, the Feb. 1 deadline that President Trump put into place in a statement several weeks ago continues,” said White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt. “These are promises made and promises kept by the president,” she added.
“Starting tomorrow those tariffs will be in place.”

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/canada-uncertainty-tariffs-feb-1
(report supposedly updated an hour ago)
Reuters has a 26sec video clip of Leavitt making that statement. It's real.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/north-america-braces-new-trump-tariffs-saturday-deadline-nears-2025-01-31/

31 Jan, 2025:

Uncertainty. Hedging bets, loathe to make predictions.
Lowest level of bond volatility in years.
Collin (sic) Martin, Schwab Fixed Income. Amaury D'Orsay, Amundi Fixed Income.
No cuts expected anytime soon. Stand pat at least for the first half of the year. Perhaps more volatility from the long end of the curve, and in the Credit Markets.
D'Orsay lately could see the 10-year maybe at 5%. Still realistic? No, maybe 4.8%. And more likely, a bit below that.
Martin: we could get to 5% without even factoring in the Trump policies. Even with just two cuts later in the year, 5% is realistic, given the state of the labor market and everything else. The Big Picture dynamics are present.
(On-screen: 10 year T is at 4.52%.)
Sonali to D'Orsay: how do tariffs fit into your estimation? Muddy. Focus on the data. That's the thing to do, these days. Martin: "We expect the 10-Year to trade in a wide range."
To D'Orsay: "What is your bigeest conviction trade right now?" Inflation Bonds.
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I.G. new monthly credit bond issuance = only $3B short of the record. (And this is the final day of January.) ...RECORD set in Leveraged Loan issuance. $202B. Beats the previous record from just last month.
Maurenn O'Connor, Wells Fargo. We will forgive her for being connected to the sewer called Wells Fargo. And Meghan Graper, Barclays.
...O'Connor: rolling over stuff that is maturing is a big chunk of what's responsible for new issuance, currently.
Market is priced for perfection. Ultra-tight yield spreads. Longer-term risk is inflation. ...Sudden conclusion, this time.