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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • This Investing Trend Is Your Friend—Until It Isn’t
    I never used momentum indexes; I only used typical funds but looked at the best risk/reward ones and kept changing according to uptrends, and several parameters.
    How to do that? It's the $64K. I developed my system for years, just as I developed my timing one for retirement. None is mechanical. See (link).
    I have posted for over 15 years on several boards, and I can say that there are maybe 5-7 people who do it well. The rest don't believe it, don't want to put in the effort, or don't care.
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    Roger all that.
    From March 1, 2025:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/01/doge-actions-may-cause-social-security-benefit-interruption-ex-agency-head.html
    Excerpt (BOLD added):
    ...
    “Ultimately, you’re going to see the system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” O’Malley said. “I believe you will see that within the next 30 to 90 days.”
    ...
    For people who are already receiving Social Security benefits, most of that is automated and may not be affected, she said. However, processing new claims — whether it be for retirement or disability benefits — may take longer since those cannot be processed without Social Security employees, Hornick said.
    IF they are affected, pretty sure There Will Be Blood.
    Tick. Tick. Tick.
    EDIT: An apparent afternoon (IMO) dead cat bounce, if it holds, will play nicely into the plans of anyone who is today running from this scary looking freight train.
  • Affordable compact cars could be first to see rising prices from tariffs
    I think it's great that people think that launching the largest trade war since the Smoot-Hawley tariff will have no significant impact on world equity and bond markets, much less the bank accounts of John and Jane Doe.
    It's just not polite to talk about it.

    And that’s the purpose of
    Mutual Fund Observer? To debate the great financial issues of the world? Go at it then.
    We can't discuss the impact of "great financial issues" on our investments? Why do people buy and sell what they buy and sell? I don't know. Can't talk about it.
    I think I've seen one post here defending tariffs. If they're a good idea, then maybe they would have a beneficial effect on our retirement plans. Or maybe someone would have an idea of how to invest to take advantage of threatened tariffs.
    But no. The people that object to the discussion, such as yourself, suggest they shouldn't be talked about at all in the context of investing. It's only politics. And nihilism is in bloom this spring. Let's talk about the price of scotch instead.
    image
  • Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 4/1/25
    Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 4/1/25
    TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
    Rates down by -25 bps; early release
    Restricted RC 5.25%, RA 5.00%
    Flexible RCP 4.50%, SRA 4.25%, IRA-101110+ 4.50%
    TSP G Fund pending (previous 4.250%).
    Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
    #StableValue #401k #403b #TIAA #TSP
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1926/thread
  • Ownership breakdown of US equity market & Return by Country
    A Wealth of Common Sense detailed some interesting charts....https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/03/the-stock-market-is-always-changing/
    Per Goldman Sachs, ownership of US equities:
    38% Households
    18% Foreign investors
    11% Active mutual fund
    6% passive mutual fund
    9% ETFs
    10% Pension/govt retirement
    4% Business holdings
    2% Hedge Funds
    image
    And Denmark is champion of the past 20 year returns (market return by country), followed by the USA...
    image
  • ECB’s Lane Backs Digital Euro to Avoid Rising Stablecoin Risks
    Hi Rick,
    IMO, people's assessment of cause and effect are backwards in this case.
    Trump agenda (succeed or fail) points to a weaker dollar. I expect USD to be lower three years from now. For a society addicted to catchy phrases (so they do not have to process), "strong dollar" has become a slogan leaders pitch and people eat up but really what the administration would shoot for is a stable dollar and not a strong dollar.
    ***********
    As to realignment, we have elections every two years. You will need a few successive elections to go in a specific policy direction for a re(or mis)alignment to take hold. Somethings that have been evolving for the last 8-10 years are somewhat irreversible. But then there are other things that are ideas and have not yet taken root in the society. Whether these ideas take root or not depends on who is providing leadership and not just leaders.
    If there is a Democratic party equivalent of Project 2025, please share the link. I want to read.
    As you know, if the general public knows about something happening for the last 8-10 years means the DC apparatus (does not matter the party affiliation) has been at it for much longer. As an example, I helped my ex-employer in 2018 to exit China by divesting their Chinese business to a global Chinese company.
    We have 800 military bases (of all sizes and kinds) in 80 different countries. Has there been a significant reduction of those (not counting Afghanistan) in the last 8-10 years or is there a firm expectation of significant reduction in them? Watch this metric. Closing USAID is not it. Reciprocal Tariffs is not it. We have to separate / distinguish evolutionary from revolutionary changes.
    I am just concerned that we in this forum consume way too much of what the media and whoever (e.g., Think Tanks) wants us to consume. (I am aware that this forum, more than any other investing forum I had ever visited, has a large group that does not rely on stock investments to meet their retirement (sustenance or charitable) goals and they can afford pursuits other than investing.)
    Good weekend.
  • One time Social Security payments mystery
    Turns out my wife got a raise for delaying benefits (past full retirement?), and then for payroll deductions for 2024. I'm having to guess because the letter isn't entirely clear.
    As granddad used to say: "Don't marry for money, but don't let it stand in your way." :)
  • Money-Losing Retail Crowd Keeps Buying Stocks as Market Teeters

    yep, sentiment indicator is the marginal discretionary, not the auto-indexer flow.
    however, relative to auto flows, it would be very interesting to suss out retirement plans trading out of their u.s. indexes.
  • Money-Losing Retail Crowd Keeps Buying Stocks as Market Teeters
    These broad generalizations are, imo, pointless. What kind of stocks are these retailers buying? MAG-7 momentum stocks? What sector? Or are they just plowing $$$ into index funds, which by their very nature, are market-cappy/momentum-based? They make it sound like individual investors should just go to cash and sit the market out right now....
    +1
    What I’d like to know is how much of this buying is passive flow into 401-Ks or other retirement accounts? Is there any data on the percentage of so called “retail investors” still working vs the percent who are retired? A guess would be that a much higher percentage are working and dollar averaging in. However, in terms of actual wealth controlled, retirees may well have the upper hand.
    Although I earlier posted the article, it does sound like 90% hype and 10% substance. Shamefully short on details.
    From JD_co - ”Thus far, Tech has pulled back after a tremendous run-up.”
    Yes. We can thank TSLA for a good part of the market damage. It has lost 50% of its value since mid December.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/19/25
    Thanks Yogi. Interesting. What I can’t tell from the numbers is how far out the time horizon is in these surveys - assuming there is one?
    Conceivably, one might be bullish near term (1-3 months out), but bearish longer term (3, 5, 10 years or more). Or conversely, bearish near term and bullish longer term. Let us hope 25 year olds aren’t selling their long term retirement holdings (or ceasing to invest) based on which way the wind is blowing at any given moment.
  • Morningstar on SOR Risks Early in Retirement
    Morningstar’s @JPtak reports that the S.O.R risks are quite high in the first 5 years of 30-yr retirement period. So, one should use more conservative allocations & withdrawals in those first 5 years. Also, the portfolio balances must be monitored closely during those 5 years & corrective actions should be taken if the portfolio drops precipitously.
    https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/how-avoid-outliving-your-retirement-savings-its-all-sequence
  • One time Social Security payments mystery

    Watching the Muskrats at SSA and reading YBB's post above, it almost reassures me that for many, many years I've not planned on SSA being a significant part of my retirement income that I would depend on ... if it's even around then. ;/
  • “There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”
    Not to pile on the article above. The concluding statement is generalized with the aim at a broad audience. Everyone on this board is in different phases of investing. Some are working while other are retiring or in-retirement already. Thus, we have a diverse response to the conclusion above. For many retirees, their investment horizon is much shorter and there is little room for a 10 year recovery period as in 2008 GRC. I have been reducing stock allocation in order to reduce risk as I approach retirement. There are pockets of opportunities like @hank stated. Personally, actively managed bonds work for us. I am also okay with money market, stable value, and T bills as they yield over 4%.
    It is unknown risk caused by this trade war which we are about to embark upon, and their consequences on the market is most concerning.
    I may be wrong but I am learning fast.
  • “There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”
    @larryB - Yes, my younger self also responded differently from the current me. I was w*rking in 2000 and 2008 then and socking money into my retirement funds while they were cheaper. My equity position was approx 75% at the time. As I entered retirement 7 years ago, I reduced to 35% and then during the 2020 recession I timidly added to stocks.
    I agree, this time may be completely different as noted by previous posters and threads. I have kept a significant (for me) cash stash, to aid my wife and me through this *downturn.* Enough to cover 2-3 years even if social security is impacted.
    So my head isn’t in the sand regarding our nation, economy, and stock market; and I’m not looking to be *right* in this post. I am looking for direction just like everyone here, and find evaluating the data that the stock market is giving, even if it becomes stale immediately, that’s what I’ve got.
    I may be looking at the wrong data and would always appreciate additional information.
  • “There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”
    At Level5. Speaking for myself,,,, how I responded to significant market events 18 or ten years before retirement has little in common with my response in 2025. Younger me was out to grow my nest egg and old me is out to preserve it. The fear factor is real and that doesn’t even factor in that this time really is different. The rule of law no longer applies. Maybe in six months the fog of war will lift but maybe in 20 months a national emergency will be declared and the mid terms will be called off. Nobody knows.
  • “There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”
    The author opened with this: “ President Donald Trump is attempting the most sweeping transformation of government and policy in decades. The White House is moving furiously to slash spending, expand tariffs, repeal regulations and rewrite tax rules. A lot of people are wondering what it all means for the economy, jobs, housing, inflation and the stock market.
    The truth is no one knows. But the best guess lies in the collective wisdom of markets — the countless independent buy and sell decisions manifested in stock and bond prices.”
    I found the quantitative argument by the author had merit. He listed his reasoning by looking at how slow downs to recessions show-up through treasury, credit, and stock earnings price, and inflation expectations.
    Still, I wish I had moved more of my (now) 35% equity in retirement funds to cash instruments. But I had not. My urge to sell was/is tempered by the previous recoveries from 2000, 2008, and 2020.
    The fear-factor in the current climate is real for me, so I’m looking for data that I can understand to offset any emotional high-jacking.
  • Rekenthaler: it's not all about the tariffs
    The redoubtable Mr. Rekenthaler peered in from his retirement villa today, and shared his take on market volatility. He notes that some assets have appreciated in value (BRK.B, Treasury notes) and some have declined (tech stocks, bitcoin). Many attribute this is tariff jitters. He scoffs.
    At base, he claims, if it were tariffs, then BRK.B and tech would have declined, Treasury notes and bitcoin would have risen because the value of the former is impaired by tariffs, the value of the latter is not.
    Alternately, he argues, we're seeing a short term panic reaction from speculators who know that it's always safest to be the first out the door when the price of an overvalued asset breaks:
    Speculative assets have been sliding not because investors have determined the true cost of tariffs, but instead because the marketplace has suffered one of its periodic bouts of risk on, risk off.
    The real reckoning, for good or ill, will come when the impact of tariffs becomes clearer and the decisions are more driven by investors than speculators.
    JR does not overtly factor-in the unpredictability of Mr. Trump's tariff policy, where the rules change frequently, unpredictably and by whim. That, as much as the tariffs themselves, might be a factor at play. We'd need to think about whether it impacts his underlying thesis. I haven't, yet.
  • NIH Cuts Create a Lost Generation of Scientists From Bloomberg News
    Bloomberg News has a succinct summary of the disaster unfolding at the NIH and Biomedical Research around the country.
    "The Trump administration’s attacks on science and funding at the National Institutes of Health will set research and training for future scientists back a generation.
    This might sound melodramatic to anyone not intimately familiar with the world of academic training and research. But in just two months the administration has cut off opportunities at every phase in a scientist’s career. Unless funding and the freedom to pursue science without political bias are restored, biomedical research in the US will become less ambitious, less competitive and result in fewer breakthroughs.
    To recap: In his first days in office, President Donald Trump targeted the NIH, which spends more than 80% of its $48 billion budget on grants and other funding to universities and hospitals around the country. That funding ground to a halt, and damage was amplified two weeks later when the administration excised $4 billion in overhead costs from NIH grants — money that institutions rely on to run their facilities and pay support staff. That was followed by job cuts at the agency — reportedly nearly 1,200 of them, in areas spanning Alzheimer’s research to cancer. (Some of these moves have been halted, at least temporarily, by the courts.)
    More recently, scores of NIH grants were terminated because they didn’t align with the administration’s political ideology. Flagged topics include research on LGBT+ health, gender identity, diversity, equity and inclusion; vaccine hesitancy; and mRNA vaccines. Now, Trump seems to be using the NIH to punish universities that he feels have defied him. On Monday, the agency said it was terminating $250 million in grants to Columbia University, a move that will have a seismic impact on study and researchers there.
    Summer research programs at NIH and in university labs — experiences that help pull undergraduates into science careers — have been canceled. Graduate school admissions are being paused or cut back. Widespread hiring freezes are leaving postdoctoral researchers, on the cusp of launching their careers, in limbo.
    Assistant professors awaiting the NIH’s final approval on their first major grant, known as an R01, a critical step toward securing tenure, are worried their once promising careers are being snuffed out. Even well-established scientists tell me they’ve made lists of people in their labs to cut if the money doesn’t flow soon. I’m told some in the twilight of their careers are cutting back hours to preserve funding or are considering retirement.
    The entire pipeline of biomedical scientists, supported in one way or the other by the funding at NIH, is being culled.
    Unsurprisingly, morale — both at NIH and at the long list of institutions the agency funds — is in the basement. One researcher at a prominent New York-based cancer hospital told me he hasn’t been sleeping. A health equity researcher at Northwestern University, whose work hits on all of the buzzwords that Trump wants eradicated from federal government, teared up when describing what the situation means for the students she mentors. Making a career in science has always been exceptionally hard, she says, “and in this environment, it’s just making it impossible. I’m afraid we’re going to lose some of the best minds.” (Many researchers asked not to be named out of fear about the status of funding under review at NIH.)
    Ashley de Marchena, an autism expert at Drexel University, said the funding uncertainty led one of her trainees to look for a job rather than pursue a doctoral degree. Not only is the time and taxpayer investment in building their research skills lost, but the student, who is neurodivergent, is someone whose unique perspective should be nurtured, not pushed into another career path.
    “So many entry points [to research] are gone now,” says Julianne Meisner, an epidemiologist in the University of Washington’s Department of Global Health. She recently advised a student finishing her master’s degree to consider applying to PhD programs abroad. They might offer less money, but they bring more certainty. And those institutes clearly see an opportunity to siphon some of America’s brightest: at least one French university is advertising itself to US students as a “safe place for science.”
    Meanwhile, those who persist are shrinking their ambitions to fit a more hostile environment. A theme I heard over and over again is that researchers will do less bold science, ask fewer questions, make fewer discoveries.
    There’s little sign that the damage will be repaired once new leadership is in place at NIH. During his Senate confirmation hearing last week, Jay Bhattacharya, Trump’s pick to lead the agency, seemed unruffled by the turmoil. If anything, his equivocation about the upheaval suggests he’s on board with whatever changes those above him demand next.
    Bhattacharya dodged questions about restoring funding and instead emphasized the need to restore trust in public health, a project he believes requires “freedom” and “transparency.”
    It's hard to imagine a less trustworthy or transparent process, or one less attuned to academic freedom than what’s unfolding. Sidelining and muzzling a generation of scientists, dismantling the nation’s research apparatus and ultimately ceding scientific supremacy to China and Europe does not seem like the right way to restore trust.
    For the public, all of this might seem hard to grasp — or even care about. But eventually we will all be affected. It’ll show up as the hit to the local economy when scientists and staff lose their jobs. It’ll take the form of a widening gap in access to equitable health care. It’ll be the Alzheimer’s treatment or cancer vaccine that never quite makes it over the finish line."
    Oh BTW Bhattacharya recieved an MD degree but has never practiced medicine ( not even an internship ), has never seen a patient independently and has never done any biological research. He is a health economist. Great choice to lead the world's most formidable biomedical research institution. All because he co-authored "The Great Barrington Declaration"
    Not mentioned above, almost 100 senior level NIH investigators have had their salaries suspended and their lab budgets frozen and government credit cards canceled. These are people specifically recruited to the NIH to run cutting edge research, done no where else in the world. There are 16,000 grant proposals waiting for study sections that have been canceled and legally mandatory notice in the Federal Register that has been shut down.
    Student internships for thousands of the brightest STEM college kids to work in labs all around the country this summer have been cancelled.
    This will have a generational, decades and decades negative impact on the US as a Research mecca and biotech innovator. For what? The Chinese are ecstatic.
    Far more significant than the shutdown of the NOAA .
  • Trump says he’ll raise tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%. Or Not. Or Maybe.

    brookfield's mark carney is leaving to become Canada's next PM and deal with trump. carney also has experience as Bank Governor for 2 nations ; this is bringing a bazooka to a pillow fight.
    on top of that, the Canadian people seem pretty tired of all MAGA\musk agendas. they seem willing to take the pain of keeping their tariffs in place for some time until flops stop and someone (else) is leading serious negotiations and not pimping propaganda.
    but hey, at least there is trumpcoin for american retirement. , and~40 fewer lbs of northern fentanyl, which has suddenly become bessent's expertise.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I had been lamenting not reducing our retirement equity positions from 38% to 33%, but after these last few market drops, I held my nose and made a minor contribution to VTI and VIG. Falling knife? Probably.