It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
I discussed that as well. His memos have always been long and convoluted, filled with commentary but very little actionable guidance. After years of avoiding a clear stance, he finally called a bubble last January.
marks has never written to offer monthly advice. his main talent has been to deploy loads of committed capital at mkt lows in high tiers of capital structures. that is the only 'signal' one will get, and maybe that is also gone within the maze of brookfield.
where i do fault marks is his ever-insistent emphasis on 'risk' without proving any practical means of assessing such for the self-investor.
In 2020, influential strategist Ed Yardeni predicted the economy & markets were entering a “Roaring 2020s” decade. So far, he’s proven the naysayers wrong. He explains why the economy should continue to expand and the markets to advance in 2026 and beyond.

The following information was excerpted from Morningstar's Parent Rating (Oct. 14, 2024)Do folks know much about Diamond Hill?
I don't, but do invest with First Eagle.
Quantifying how diversified is a universe of assets is an open problem in quantitative finance, partly because there is no definite formula for diversification1.
Let’s make the (reasonable) assumption that the way assets are moving together within a universe is important for its diversification.
This in turn makes asset correlations within a universe important in determining how diversified it is.
...Results
The results obtained are remarkably consistent with those of Fleming and Kroeske(8):
The effective rank varies a lot through time(14), as illustrated on Figure 3
Evolution of the effective rank
Figure 3. Evolution of the effective rank
The proportion of total variance explained is both very high and very stable through time(15), as illustrated on Figure 4.
Figure 4. Proportion of the total variance explained
Another possible usage of the matrix effective rank, hinted in Fleming and Kroeske(8), is to use it as an indicator of systemic risk.
Indeed, it appears that the matrix effective rank bottoms around market crashes (financial crisis of 2007–2008, Corona crisis of 2020…).
Maybe a subject for another time…
This is my thinking. Call it "mean reversion" or "bubble bursting" or anything at all, it still makes me wary.On the theme of torturing the data...
Typically, when the S&P 500 has effectively doubled (or nearly doubled) in a 3-year window, the subsequent 12 months are often a "hangover" period.
In 6 out of the 7 historical cases, the market either crashed, corrected, or went flat in the year immediately following the peak. The only major exception was the late 1990s Dot-Com bubble, where the market continued to rally for two more years before eventually busting.
...
Summary: History suggests the odds of a negative or flat year in 2026 are elevated, simply because the market rarely sustains a >20% annualized pace for four years straight.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved. Powered by Vanilla