For those who think their FDIC-insured bank accounts/CDs would be safe in the event of a Treasury bond default: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USGSEC
Things would be OK perhaps in the short-term if it's just a missed Treasury payment--a technical default- but not in the long-term for any extended standoff and collapse. The whole system is built on the "risk-free" rate of Treasuries, lives or dies with it. Banks own $4.4 trillion in government debt. And yes, it is a political issue. The extremists' goal of this standoff is to destroy the social safety net, cut Food Stamps, welfare, unemployment benefits, Medicaid and, in the long-term, Social Security and Medicare. And so the fate of T-Bill and Treasury bond holders, the U.S. dollar, and our entire financial system is wrapped up with this debate.
Meanwhile, the idea that the FDIC because it is financed by banks and not the government can save all the banks that would go bust in an extended default is wrong. The FDIC depends on the Deposit Insurance Fund--https://investopedia.com/terms/d/deposit-insurance-fund.asp--to bail out banks. As of the FDIC's last 2021 annual report issued in April of 2022--https://fdic.gov/about/financial-reports/reports/2021annualreport/2021-arfinal.pdf--the insurance fund had $115 billion set aside to bail out banks. That's good for a few banks, not for an entire financial system in disrepair. Even worse, what is the Deposit Insurance Fund invested in? Treasury bonds! See page 133 of the annual report.
If we miss a T-bill/Treasury payment because of our government being held hostage, the world will survive. But going over the edge into a serious government bankruptcy would be end times for the capital markets. Nor am I trying to be alarmist. In fact, this scenario makes me almost positive the situation won't get any further than brinkmanship and everything for wealthy T-Bill/Treasury-bond holders--and every other investor in the financial food chain--will be fine. And even if the extremists kept pushing, the 14th amendment will be invoked: https://newrepublic.com/article/169857/debt-ceiling-law-terminate-constitution A missed payment and the volatility that will result because of it will be a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, some awful concession will be made regarding the safety net for America's poorest most vulnerable citizens--politics in the extreme.

As a retired and conservative investor, I currently have investments only in short term FDIC insured CDs by large national US banks and in Treasury only MM funds. As the CDs mature over the next several months, I will put the proceeds also into Treasury only MM funds until the hopefully unlikely US default crisis has past.
In the current market environment, preserving capital is more important to me than seeking return on capital.
Fred

Pure conjecture here: maybe it's when an econ downturn has arguably started, and sellers see a Fed rate cut as confirmation. And maybe some of the $ goes into bonds, the buyers banking on cap gains with more rate cuts.

@LarryB
I looked at the gold funds and think for retirement accounts. pick the one with the lowest ER and decent liquidity.
In taxable accounts Gold is taxed at long term capital gains rates of 28% as a collectible ( ST is income tax rate)
However, if you use a Canadian fund like PHYS, you can fill out a form every year with your taxes and pay usual LT capital gains rate.
Otherwise buy a mutual fund like SGGDX which seems to have done betted than the index of miners like GDX. NEM is also a possibility as it has a nice dividend.
@LB
I agree Political issues always affect investments. For example, massive changes in the tax laws, an obviously political issue, made huge changes in expected investment returns.
We should be able to distinguish between political discussions with people of good faith presenting opposing but reasoned and fact based arguments or informed ( who of us really knows what is in McCarthy's head?) opinions based on their actual data or professional knowledge, and screes and ideology amplified by the internet with a hostile core.
Unfortunately there is much more of the latter than the former. Many once respected voices of facts and reason are now just the scene of shouting matches. While the NYT is not much better (looking at you 1619 project), I remember how thoughtful and insightful the WSJ used to be. The articles are still generally useful, but no where near as detailed and insightful, but the opinion pages distort and cherry pick facts to rile up the faithful.
This then pollutes everything associated with it. I am reading a pretty good book now about PGE and the California wildfires "California Burning" by K Blunt. My cousin whose house almost burned down in one of the fires refuses to read it as it is written by WSJ reporter. Everything is distorted through you own, mightily amplified political viewpoint.
There seems to be very few places for moderates and independents to have a discussion without getting yelled at.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1657201/000110465923005868/tm233913d2_497.htm
497 1 tm233913d2_497.htm 497
INVESCO EXCHANGE-TRADED SELF-INDEXED FUND TRUST
SUPPLEMENT DATED JANUARY 23, 2023 TO THE:
PROSPECTUSES AND STATEMENTS OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
DATED DECEMBER 16, 2022 OF:
Invesco BulletShares 2023 USD Emerging Markets Debt ETF (BSCE)
Invesco BulletShares 2024 USD Emerging Markets Debt ETF (BSDE)
Invesco Investment Grade Value ETF (IIGV)
Invesco RAFITM Strategic Developed ex-US ETF (ISDX)
Invesco RAFITM Strategic Emerging Markets ETF (ISEM)
Invesco RAFITM Strategic US Small Company ETF (IUSS)
(each, a “Fund” and collectively, the “Funds”)
At a meeting held on January 20, 2023, the Board of Trustees of the Invesco Exchange-Traded Self-Indexed Fund Trust approved the termination and liquidation of each Fund, with the liquidation payment to shareholders expected to take place on or about April 6, 2023.
After the close of business on March 23, 2023, the Funds no longer will accept creation orders. The last day of trading in each Fund on NYSE Arca, Inc. or The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (each, an “Exchange”), as applicable, will be March 30, 2023. Shareholders should be aware that while the Funds are preparing to liquidate, they will not be pursuing their stated investment objective or engaging in any business activities except for the purposes of winding up their business and affairs, preserving the value of their assets, paying their liabilities, and distributing their remaining assets to shareholders. A liquidation may also be delayed if unforeseen circumstances arise.
Shareholders may sell their holdings of a Fund on the applicable Exchange until market close on March 30, 2023, and may incur typical transaction fees from their broker-dealer. Each Fund’s shares will no longer trade on the applicable Exchange after market close on March 30, 2023, and the shares will be subsequently delisted. Shareholders who do not sell their shares of a Fund before market close on March 30, 2023 will receive cash equal to the amount of the net asset value of their shares, which will include any capital gains and dividends, in the cash portion of their brokerage accounts, on or about April 6, 2023.
Shareholders generally will recognize a capital gain or loss equal to the amount received for their shares over or under their adjusted basis in such shares.
Shareholders should call the Fund’s distributor, Invesco Distributors, Inc., at 1-800-983-0903 for additional information.
Please Retain This Supplement For Future Reference.
P-PS-SIFT-PROSAI-SUP 012323
=====================================================================
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1209466/000110465923005869/tm233913d9_497.htm
497 1 tm233913d9_497.htm 497
INVESCO EXCHANGE-TRADED FUND TRUST
SUPPLEMENT DATED JANUARY 23, 2023 TO THE
PROSPECTUSES AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
DATED AUGUST 26, 2022 OF:
Invesco S&P SmallCap 600 Equal Weight ETF (EWSC)
(the “Fund”)
At a meeting held on January 20, 2023, the Board of Trustees of the Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust approved the termination and liquidation of the Fund, with the liquidation payment to shareholders expected to take place on or about April 6, 2023.
After the close of business on March 23, 2023, the Fund no longer will accept creation orders. The last day of trading in the Fund on NYSE Arca, Inc. (the “Exchange”), will be March 30, 2023. Shareholders should be aware that while the Fund is preparing to liquidate, it will not be pursuing its stated investment objective or engaging in any business activities except for the purposes of winding up its business and affairs, preserving the value of its assets, paying its liabilities, and distributing its remaining assets to shareholders. The liquidation may also be delayed if unforeseen circumstances arise.
Shareholders may sell their holdings of the Fund on the applicable Exchange until market close on March 30, 2023, and may incur typical transaction fees from their broker-dealer. The Fund’s shares will no longer trade on the Exchange after market close on March 30, 2023, and the shares will be subsequently delisted. Shareholders who do not sell their shares of the Fund before market close on March 30, 2023 will receive cash equal to the amount of the net asset value of their shares, which will include any capital gains and dividends, in the cash portion of their brokerage accounts, on or about April 6, 2023.
Shareholders generally will recognize a capital gain or loss equal to the amount received for their shares over or under their adjusted basis in such shares.
Shareholders should call the Fund’s distributor, Invesco Distributors, Inc., at 1-800-983-0903 for additional information.
Please Retain This Supplement For Future Reference.
P-PS-PRO-1-SUP-1 012323
==========================================================================
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1169717/000110465923005878/tm233913d11_497.htm
497 1 tm233913d11_497.htm 497
INVESCO BLDRS INDEX FUNDS TRUST
SUPPLEMENT DATED JANUARY 23, 2023 TO THE
PROSPECTUS DATED JANUARY 31, 2022, AS PREVIOUSLY SUPPLEMENTED, OF:
Invesco BLDRS Emerging Markets 50 ADR Index Fund (ADRE)
(the “Fund”)
Invesco Capital Management LLC (the “Sponsor”) and The Bank of New York Mellon (the “Trustee”), as Sponsor and Trustee, respectively, have approved the termination and liquidation of the Fund, with the liquidation payment to shareholders expected to take place on or about April 6, 2023.
Effective after the close of business on March 10, 2023 (the effective date of the notice of termination), the Fund no longer will accept creation orders.
The termination date and last day of trading in the Fund on The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (the “Exchange”) will be March 30, 2023. During the period March 10, 2023 through March 30, 2023, Authorized Participants may redeem baskets of shares for a pro rata portion of the Fund’s portfolio on hand. After the close of business on March 30, 2023, the transfer books of the Fund will be closed. Shareholders should be aware that while the Fund is preparing to liquidate, it will not be pursuing its stated investment objective or engaging in any business activities except for the purposes of winding up its business and affairs, preserving the value of its assets, paying its liabilities, and distributing its remaining assets to shareholders. The liquidation may also be delayed if unforeseen circumstances arise.
Shareholders may sell their holdings of the Fund on the Exchange until market close on March 30, 2023, and may incur typical transaction fees from their broker-dealer. The Fund’s shares will no longer trade on the Exchange after market close on March 30, 2023, and the shares will be subsequently delisted. Shareholders who do not sell their shares of the Fund before market close on March 30, 2023 will receive cash equal to the amount of the net asset value of their shares, which will include any capital gains and dividends, in the cash portion of their brokerage accounts, on or about April 6, 2023.
Shareholders generally will recognize a capital gain or loss equal to the amount received for their shares over or under their adjusted basis in such shares.
Shareholders should call the Fund’s distributor, Invesco Distributors, Inc., at 1-800-983-0903 for additional information.
Please Retain This Supplement For Future Reference.
P-BLDRS-PRO-1-SUP-1 012323

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418144/000110465923005865/tm233913d21_497.htm
497 1 tm233913d21_497.htm 497
INVESCO ACTIVELY MANAGED EXCHANGE-TRADED FUND TRUST
SUPPLEMENT DATED JANUARY 23, 2023 TO THE:
PROSPECTUSES AND STATEMENTS OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
DATED FEBRUARY 25, 2022, AS PREVIOUSLY SUPPLEMENTED, OF:
Invesco Balanced Multi-Asset Allocation ETF (PSMB)
Invesco Conservative Multi-Asset Allocation ETF (PSMC)
Invesco Focused Discovery Growth ETF (IVDG)
Invesco Growth Multi-Asset Allocation ETF (PSMG)
Invesco Moderately Conservative Multi-Asset Allocation ETF (PSMM)
Invesco Select Growth ETF (IVSG)
Invesco US Large Cap Core ESG ETF (IVLC)
(each, a “Fund” and collectively, the “Funds”)
At a meeting held on January 20, 2023, the Board of Trustees of the Invesco Actively Managed Exchange-Traded Fund Trust approved the termination and liquidation of each Fund, with the liquidation payment to shareholders expected to take place on or about April 6, 2023.
After the close of business on March 23, 2023, the Funds no longer will accept creation orders. The last day of trading in each Fund on the Cboe BZX Exchange, Inc. (the “Exchange”) will be March 30, 2023. Shareholders should be aware that while the Funds are preparing to liquidate, they will not be pursuing their stated investment objective or engaging in any business activities except for the purposes of winding up their business and affairs, preserving the value of their assets, paying their liabilities, and distributing their remaining assets to shareholders. A liquidation may also be delayed if unforeseen circumstances arise.
Shareholders may sell their holdings of a Fund on the Exchange until market close on March 30, 2023, and may incur typical transaction fees from their broker-dealer. Each Fund’s shares will no longer trade on the Exchange after market close on March 30, 2023, and the shares will be subsequently delisted. Shareholders who do not sell their shares of a Fund before market close on March 30, 2023 will receive cash equal to the amount of the net asset value of their shares, which will include any capital gains and dividends, in the cash portion of their brokerage accounts, on or about April 6, 2023.
Shareholders generally will recognize a capital gain or loss equal to the amount received for their shares over or under their adjusted basis in such shares.
Shareholders should call the Fund’s distributor, Invesco Distributors, Inc., at 1-800-983-0903 for additional information.
Please Retain This Supplement For Future Reference.
P-PSM4IV3-PROSAI-SUP 012323
=======================================================================
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1378872/000110465923005881/tm233913d12_497.htm
497 1 tm233913d12_497.htm 497
INVESCO EXCHANGE-TRADED FUND TRUST II
SUPPLEMENT DATED JANUARY 23, 2023 TO THE:
PROSPECTUSES AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
DATED FEBRUARY 25, 2022, AS PREVIOUSLY SUPPLEMENTED, OF:
Invesco FTSE International Low Beta Equal Weight ETF (IDLB)
Invesco S&P International Developed High Dividend Low Volatility ETF (IDHD)
Invesco PureBetaSM FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (PBEE)
Invesco PureBetaSM FTSE Developed ex-North America ETF (PBDM)
and
PROSPECTUSES AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
DATED DECEMBER 16, 2022 OF:
Invesco PureBetaSM MSCI USA Small Cap ETF (PBSM)
Invesco PureBetaSM US Aggregate Bond ETF (PBND)
Invesco Russell 1000 Enhanced Equal Weight ETF (USEQ)
Invesco Russell 1000 Low Beta Equal Weight ETF (USLB)
(IDLB, IDHD, PBEE, PBDM, PBSM, PBND, USEQ and USLB are
each, a “Fund” and collectively, the “Funds”)
At a meeting held on January 20, 2023, the Board of Trustees of the Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II approved the termination and liquidation of each Fund, with the liquidation payment to shareholders expected to take place on or about April 6, 2023.
After the close of business on March 23, 2023, the Funds no longer will accept creation orders. The last day of trading in each Fund on The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC or the Cboe BZX Exchange, Inc. (each, an “Exchange”), as applicable, will be March 30, 2023. Shareholders should be aware that while the Funds are preparing to liquidate, they will not be pursuing their stated investment objective or engaging in any business activities except for the purposes of winding up their business and affairs, preserving the value of their assets, paying their liabilities, and distributing their remaining assets to shareholders. A liquidation may also be delayed if unforeseen circumstances arise.
Shareholders may sell their holdings of a Fund on the applicable Exchange until market close on March 30, 2023, and may incur typical transaction fees from their broker-dealer. Each Fund’s shares will no longer trade on the applicable Exchange after market close on March 30, 2023, and the shares will be subsequently delisted. Shareholders who do not sell their shares of a Fund before market close on March 30, 2023 will receive cash equal to the amount of the net asset value of their shares, which will include any capital gains and dividends, in the cash portion of their brokerage accounts, on or about April 6, 2023.
Shareholders generally will recognize a capital gain or loss equal to the amount received for their shares over or under their adjusted basis in such shares.
Shareholders should call the Fund’s distributor, Invesco Distributors, Inc., at 1-800-983-0903 for additional information.
Please Retain This Supplement For Future Reference.
P-PS-TRUSTII-PROSAI-SUP 012323

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/880859/000110465923005890/tm233916d2_497k.htm
SUPPLEMENT DATED JANUARY 23, 2023 TO THE CURRENT
SUMMARY AND STATUTORY PROSPECTUSES AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR:
Invesco International Core Equity Fund
(the “Fund”)
This supplement amends the Summary and Statutory Prospectuses and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) of the above referenced Fund and is in addition to any other supplement(s), unless otherwise specified. You should read this supplement in conjunction with the Summary and Statutory Prospectuses and SAI and retain it for future reference.
On January 19, 2023, the Board of Trustees of AIM International Mutual Funds (Invesco International Mutual Funds) (the “Board”) approved a Plan of Liquidation and Dissolution (the “Plan”), which authorizes the termination, liquidation and dissolution of the Fund. In order to effect such liquidation, the Fund will close to investments by new accounts after the close of business on February 24, 2023. Existing shareholders will continue to be able to invest in the Fund until the close of business on or about April 10, 2023 when no further purchases or exchanges into the Fund will be accepted as the Fund prepares for liquidation on or about April 24, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”) as described below. The liquidation may occur sooner if at any time before the Liquidation Date there are no shares outstanding in the Fund. The liquidation may also be delayed or occur sooner if unforeseen circumstances arise. Shareholders of the Fund may redeem their shares at any time prior to the Liquidation Date. The Fund reserves the right, in its discretion, to modify the extent to which sales of shares are limited prior to the Liquidation Date.
To prepare for the closing and liquidation of the Fund, the Fund’s portfolio managers may increase the Fund’s assets held in cash and similar instruments in order to pay for Fund expenses and meet redemption requests. As a result, the Fund may deviate from its stated investment strategies and policies and may no longer be managed to meet its investment objective. On or promptly after the Liquidation Date, the Fund will make a liquidating distribution to each remaining shareholder equal to the shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund, in complete redemption and cancellation of the Fund’s shares held by the shareholder, and the Fund will be dissolved. If necessary, the Fund will declare and pay a dividend to distribute to its shareholders all of the Fund’s remaining investment company taxable income, if any, and all of the Fund’s net capital gain, if any (after reduction for any capital loss carry-forward) and any additional amounts necessary to avoid any excise tax. Alternatively, the Fund may, if eligible, treat some or all of such amounts distributed to its shareholders as being paid out as dividends as part of the liquidating distributions. The Fund’s liquidation may be a taxable event to its shareholders. Please consult your tax advisor about the potential tax consequences.
At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem their shares of the Fund pursuant to the procedures set forth in the prospectus under “Redeeming Shares,” as it may be supplemented. Contingent deferred sales charges will be waived in connection with any redemptions prior to the Liquidation Date. Shareholders who wish to avoid being liquidated out of the Fund altogether may also exchange their shares prior to the Liquidation Date for shares of another Invesco fund, subject to minimum investment account requirements and other restrictions on exchanges as described in the prospectus under “Exchanging Shares,” as it may be supplemented. Any such redemption or exchange of Fund shares for shares of another Invesco fund, as eligible, will generally be considered a taxable event for federal income tax purposes, except for exchanges in a tax-advantaged retirement plan or account. Shareholders who hold their shares in the Fund through financial intermediaries should contact their financial representatives to discuss their options with respect to the liquidation and the distribution of their redemption proceeds...

"Yet, even as investor balances are depressed, their portfolio prospects are likely better than they were a year ago, a fact that my latest roundup of capital markets assumptions illustrates vividly. Thanks to higher fixed-income yields and lower equity valuations, almost all of the firms in our survey have increased their expectations for stock and bond returns for the next decade. Every firm in our survey expects non-U.S. stocks to outperform U.S. stocks in the decade ahead."
Link
Personally, I usually don't make portfolio changes based on "expert" forecasts.
Having said that, it's interesting to read these firms' assumptions.

I have recently bought EYLD, along with SFVLX, as EM value seems to make sense these days. Like @WABC, I also have exposure to SYLD. One can always hope that the prognosticators are right this time about EM. I like Faber’s idea of buying companies that have real earnings. Pacer (COWZ) and Distillate Capital have somewhat similar approaches, with Free Cash Flow seeming to be the common denominator.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49905/000119312523012796/d440160d497.htm
497 1 d440160d497.htm HARTFORD MUTUAL FUNDS II INC
JANUARY 23, 2023
SUPPLEMENT TO THE FOLLOWING PROSPECTUSES:
HARTFORD SCHRODERS SECURITIZED INCOME FUND SUMMARY PROSPECTUS
DATED MARCH 1, 2022
HARTFORD SCHRODERS FUNDS PROSPECTUS
DATED MARCH 1, 2022, AS SUPPLEMENTED TO DATE
This Supplement contains new and additional information regarding Hartford Schroders Securitized Income Fund and should be read in connection with your Summary Prospectus and Statutory Prospectus.
On or about February 28, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”), Hartford Schroders Securitized Income Fund (the “Fund”), a series of The Hartford Mutual Funds II, Inc. (the “Company”), will be liquidated (the “Liquidation”).
SUSPENSION OF SALES. The Fund is instructing its transfer agent, other service providers, and financial intermediaries to no longer accept any account applications or purchase orders from new investors effective no later than the close of business on January 31, 2023. Accordingly, the Fund will be closed to all new investors on or before that date.
Until the close of business on February 21, 2023, the Fund will remain open to retirement plans and shareholders currently invested in the Fund. After that date, the Fund will no longer accept any purchase orders and will no longer be available for automatic investments (other than dividend reinvestments). Prior to the Liquidation Date, retirement plans and shareholders currently invested in the Fund may continue to reinvest dividends and capital gain distributions in the Fund.
At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund may, in the Fund’s discretion, reject any purchase orders for any reason, including for operational reasons relating to the Liquidation of the Fund.
LIQUIDATION OF ASSETS. To prepare for the Liquidation, it is anticipated that the Fund will depart from its stated investment objective and policies as it prepares to distribute its assets to investors. It is anticipated that the Fund’s sub-adviser will increase the portion of the Fund’s assets held in cash and similar investments and reduce maturities of non-cash investments in order to prepare for orderly liquidation and to meet anticipated redemption requests. As a result, the Fund’s portfolio may consist of all or substantially all cash or cash equivalents prior to the Liquidation Date, which may adversely affect the Fund’s performance. From the date of this Supplement, the Fund may invest all or a substantial portion of its assets in cash or cash equivalents. The impending liquidation of the Fund may result in large redemptions, which could adversely affect the Fund’s expense ratios, although existing expense limitations are expected to be maintained.
In connection with the Liquidation, any shares of the Fund outstanding on the Liquidation Date will automatically be redeemed by the Fund as of the Liquidation Date (except as noted below for qualified accounts that were opened directly with the Hartford Funds). The proceeds of any such redemption will be equal to the net asset value of such shares after all charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities of the Fund have been paid or provided for. The distribution to shareholders of the Liquidation proceeds will occur on the Liquidation Date, and will be made to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on the business day preceding the Liquidation Date, other than as disclosed below. The Fund’s investment manager, Hartford Funds Management Company, LLC (“HFMC”), will bear all expenses associated with the Liquidation to the extent such expenses exceed the amount of the Fund’s normal and customary fees and operating expenses. However, the Fund and its shareholders will bear transaction costs associated with the sale of the Fund’s holdings prior to Liquidation...

Is there a particular spot in the 10-year treasury yield that might be advantageous for buying or selling if one were predisposed to timing? (speaking of investment grade intermediate term bonds). ISTM perhaps 3.5% might be in the ballpark - the “sweet spot” so to speak.
In December the 10-year peaked around 4.33% but then receded to under 3.4% early this month. Interestingly, that drop in rates to below 3.4% appeared to spark some interest in buying on the board / likely elsewhere. But then late in the week it spiked back up sharply to 3.48%. That degree of fluctuation in rates may not sound like much, but can lead to significant gains or losses for anyone “playing” the bond market.
I submit the question merely as a curiosity. Not seeking or offering investment advice.

It seems like Hussman got the formula right with HSAFX after years of HSGFX losing money in the post-2008 bull market. Unlike HSGFX, HSAFX has managed to produce small gains even during strong rallies, but it still has virtually no assets. I imagine there’s a legitimate trust question here.

@Yogibearbull. Yes.. There’s a lot in the current Barron’s about “illiquid securities” and “private equity,” and “leveraging”. Several panelists in the “Roundtable” sounded alarms. They view the issue as potentially affecting the entire 2023 investment landscape.
ISTM folks who bought into these instruments should have understood the risks they were undertaking. Outsized gains generally entail additional risk on the part of participants. Hedge funds, for example, typically limit redemptions. One reason they’re not available to small retail investors. Not disagreeing with anything you said.
Re: My OP - A lot of water has passed under the bridge in the year since I initially posted the story. The Fed has “tossed out” its initial assessment of “transient” inflation and has been aggressively / rapidly pushing up interest rates. Real estate values & REITS have fallen sharply in response. I have to believe all this is somehow related to the higher requests for redemptions and the restrictions (gates) put in place to slow redemptions - from a shrinking pot. It’s hard to discuss one facet of the problem without at least touching on the other.

@FD1000 - I don’t visit other boards. MFO is the best by far.
So if you want to claim credit here for predictions you made months earlier it seems only reasonable that you also post those predictions here at the time you make them.
And the MFO post you just put up is nearly 3 years old (February 2020).

For sovereign ratings, it is the federal debt that matters. FRED has both the absolute
federal debt amounts and as % of GDP. At $31 trillion and 120% of GDP, it is high but not very high. The highest level reached was during the pandemic in 2020.
Total debt from all sources (federal, state/local, corporate, individual/household) looks very high but isn't that relevant.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=XdER
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=YcQu

Getting a bit OT here; I hope people will indulge me as I'm a bit sensitive on this, having grown up in a home in what is now NY's 3rd Congressional district.
In election campaigns, there are two principal, not mutually exclusive, approaches. Persuasion (moving people on the fence into your camp) and getting out the vote GOTV (driving more of "your side" to the polls).
Persuasion in a country hewing to tribal allegiances has lessened in importance. As related by Smircornish, Grant Lally (publisher of the North Shore Leader) said that "Santos benefited from generic voting, people supporting their own label regardless of a candidate's individual merit" (quoting Smircornish).
Voters are so wired to their 'R's and 'D's that papers are ending their practice en masse of making endorsements.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/06/business/media/alden-newspaper-candidate-endorsements.html
Much more important these days is GOTV. Certainly the Democrats could have done more. Still, how much more motivated would Democratic voters have been to vote against a pathological liar than against one who enthusiastically supported a pathological liar?
Santos was a supposedly known quantity, having run for the same position in 2020. People seem to have forgotten that he put out some of the same lies then.
https://ballotpedia.org/George_Devolder-Santos#Campaign_themes
Here's an opinion piece with which I agree. In essence, where was the fourth estate, notably Newsday but also the NY Times during the election cycle? To which I add, or during the last cycle?
https://dankennedy.net/2022/12/23/a-long-island-weekly-had-the-goods-on-santos-several-weeks-before-election-day/

Investors Are Walking a Tightrope
"Even though the Fed is saying they will not cut interest rates, the market is saying that in three to six months we will have recession, we will have moderating inflation and you will be singing a different tune,” said Andrzej Skiba, head of U.S. fixed income at BlueBay Asset Management. “There is a massive difference between what we are hearing from the Fed, and what the market is thinking will occur.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/13/business/stock-market-gains.html

Bumping this discussion back up. I’m curious if anyone has added to their investments in either China or in EM? If so what funds are you investing in? Back in 2020 I had a large position in MIOPX, one of Kristian Heugh’s funds. But the fund sold off 55% last year. Luckily I sold out in time. So far this year I have purchased Vanguard international core stock fund which is managed by Wellington and has a 9% China stake… good conservative fund that has outperformed since inception. Curious what you are doing?

My wife and I have been converting some of our IRAs into Roths, now we are retired and in lower income brackets, until we have to take RMDs in 3 and 7 years respectively.
This now adds a third type of account besides general taxable vs non-taxable, ie one that while non-taxable will hopefully be available to our heirs.
Any thoughts re
1) best type of assets to put into a Roth?
The typical recommendation for a taxable account is non- dividend paying equity funds and growth stocks as capital gains rates are lower than income tax rates. Qualified dividends also get taxed at capital gains rates.
Whereas investments that throw off cash taxed at income tax rates should be in IRSs etc, as all of the withdrawals will be taxed at those rates, regardless.
Bonds even high yield Bonds while tax free in a Roth, would not seem to have the same prospective rates of returns over decades as Equities. I also want to avoid speculative ideas, as significant capital losses eliminates the advantage that taxes have already been paid on the money.
2) Has anyone found useful calculators or spreadsheets to help determine the tax implications of Roth conversions? Surprisingly, I cannot find anything helpful, other than calculations for the RMD itself.