"Yet, even as investor balances are depressed, their portfolio prospects are likely better than they were a year ago, a fact that my latest roundup of capital markets assumptions illustrates vividly. Thanks to higher fixed-income yields and lower equity valuations, almost all of the firms in our survey have increased their expectations for stock and bond returns for the next decade. Every firm in our survey expects non-U.S. stocks to outperform U.S. stocks in the decade ahead."LinkPersonally, I usually don't make portfolio changes based on "expert" forecasts.
Having said that, it's interesting to read these firms' assumptions.
Comments
@Observant1 , thank you for the 'link to a view'.
Yeah, mine too... but the forecasts only have about a 50/50 chance of being right.
Will stay patient while building up quality bonds with attractive yields, 4% as T bills mature. I would be happy to get a bit ahead of the inflation rate this year.
And who would have forecast the S&P / NASDAQ would be up 4.7% and 8.6% respectively 3 weeks into the new year? (Probably not the International Monetary Fund)
”For only the 25th time since World War II (an average of once every 3 1/2 years), the Dow Jones Industrials registered what technician Walter Deemer calls “breakaway momentum” (or “breadth thrust”). This often signals a new bull market (or a new intermediate upleg within a bull market).”
Barry Ritholtz
I agree with @Junkster: TUHYX is less than wonderful. But I'm married to TRP in the IRA and am limiting the amount I remove from the IRA each year. I play my cards right and I'm a no-tax due person on the 1040.
Almost all of them lost money, big money.
GE - 17.1%
BDX + 4.0%
TMO - 9.1%
KDP - 2.9%
TEL - 26.2%
AMZN - 48.3%
(1 year returns including dividends)
Photo of current Barrons ”Brain Trust” at work making 2023 predictions (Barron’s Cover / January 23, 2023). The numbers I earlier cited for Giroux’s 2022 picks appeared in the January 16 issue. Abby Joseph Cohen and David Giroux (to her right) visible on right edge of photo. Appears to be Henry Ellenbogen with back to camera. His picks were even worse than Giroux’s.
In the brokerage there are a million prospects, but to invest in a non-TRP fund, you have to plunk down $5k all at once. (Sucks big piles of feces.)
Choose an account type
--- Open a taxable Brokerage account OR
--- Traditional, Roth or Rollover Brokerage IRA in minutes.
Don't know if this is the same as Fidelity, where an IRA may have brokerage within the account and the money may be invested into just about anything.
Sometime in the 80's one had to apply to have the brokerage feature attached to the IRA account. Also, in the 80's, IRA accounts with brokerage features were notified that the feature would be blended into the account automatically. I believe today, opening an IRA at Fido; that the brokerage feature is just part of the package (Traditional or Roth). No (0$) minimums.
I was struck by the Barron's article on TSLA 1/8/23
https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-tesla-stock-price-pick-51673047775
"It helps that Tesla is expected to generate the most free cash flow among auto makers in 2023, some $12.2 billion, up from $9 billion in 2022. Toyota, the second-most-valuable auto company, is expected to generate free cash flow of about $10 billion this year and next. "
So I held my nose and bought a little. It is up from $121 to $177
Good start to 2023.
TUHYX. I'm still down by quite a bit, but the published YTD numbers are encouraging: +5.48%
Glad I bought PRCPX, too. I'm not in possession of all of it, but the YTD number = +4.11%.
Bought into PRFDX (equity income) at the right time, too. YTD +5.02%.
ETF. HYDB. YTD +3.48%.
ETF SCHP. YTD +2.76%.
(It's still January. Who needs EQUITIES, eh?)
Source: Morningstar.