Just keeps getting better!!
Fidelity® Q2 2020 Retirement Analysis: Steady Contributions Combined With Market Performance Lead to Double-Digit Rebound Across Retirement Account Balances
Retirement account balances rebound in Q2. The average IRA balance was $111,500, a 13% increase from last quarter and slightly higher than the average balance of $110,400 a year ago. The average 401(k) balance increased to $104,400 in Q2, a 14% increase from Q1 but down 2% from a year ago. The average 403(b) account balance increased to $91,100, an increase of 17% from last quarter and up 3% from a year ago.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200811005276/en/Fidelity®-Q2-2020-Retirement-Analysis-Steady-Contributions#:N^P]™\˜YÙILŒ™]\™[Y[LŒXØÛÝ[LŒ˜[[˜Ù\ÉLŒLŒLŒLŒLÍÉLÍŒLŒLŒLŒLLÍŒLŒLŒLŒLÉLÌLŒ

Michael Kitces is my favorite writer: a better choice is to start with lower % in stocks in early retirement years and increase the % with age.
As I've posted before, this work by Pfau and Kitces work breaks down when rates are low. Dr. Pfau acknowledged this, writing that

It does indeed seem that retiring at times with particularly low bond yields, which can be expected to increase over time, may not favor rising equity glidepaths during retirement. It essentially causes the retiree to lock in low bond returns and even capital losses on a bond fund as bond yields gradually increase (on average) over time.

Kitces, incorporating CAPE P/E 10 data, concluded that the safe withdrawal rate is never less than 4.5%, and can be increased if the ratio at the start of retirement is under 20.
The only enhancement that Bengen made to Kitces' work was to incorporate inflation, i.e. part of what you are concerned about.

Inflation directly affects the periodic withdrawals, as it is assumed that dollar withdrawals are increased annually by CPI. If inflation is high, it results in rapidly increasing withdrawals. ... the inflation trend hints at a reliable cause-and-effect relationship. As inflation (defined as the trailing 12-month Consumer Price Index at retirement) increases from top to bottom, SAFEMAX correspondingly declines.

Now he says SP500 performance will be around 7%.
You may have misread Marketwatch's writing: "Historically, he says, the average safe withdrawal rate has turned out to be about 7%." Bengen doesn't make market predictions.

I should also issue the usual cheerful disclaimer that this research is based on the analysis of historical data, and its application to future situations involves risk, as the future may differ significantly from the past. The term “safe” is meaningful only in its historical context, and does not imply a guarantee of future applicability.

Also on point regarding predictions, he writes: "if you have strong feelings that the inflation regime will change in the near future, you can choose another [presumably more conservative] chart".
Thanks to @bee for having posted Bengen's article yesterday, so that one could read what he actually wrote.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/57156/william-bengen-revisits-the-safe-withdrawal-rate-at-retirement

Bengen doesn't make sense and why the rule should definitely be under 4% and not 5%.
From 1992 to 2005-6 inflation(link) was around 2.5-3%. In the last several years it's about 2%. When the long term performance of the SP500 was about 10%, Bengen used 4%. Now he says SP500 performance will be around 7% and inflation is lower (at 2%), the rule should be under 4%.
In the past it was 10-3 = 7% performance(after inflation) and now it's lower 7 - 2 = only 5%. Lower performance means lower withdrawal rate.
Our portfolio withdrawal rate would be under 2% long term. This will keep our current standard of living and our portfolio for the next 4-5 decades similar to today.
Michael Kitces is my favorite writer: a better choice is to start with lower % in stocks in early retirement years and increase the % with age.
BTW, The withdrawal rule has nothing to do with distributions. Higher distributions isn't a guarantee for better performance or volatility but it's being promoted for years as the best solution.

Average balances are 2-2.5 times higher than they were in Q1 2009 thru Q1 2019. Many own primarily Target Date Funds
FIDELITY® Q1 2019 RETIREMENT ANALYSIS: ACCOUNT BALANCES REBOUND

Bengen says based on the current environment he thinks a new retiree should be safe if they start with a withdrawal rate of…no more than 5%.

https://fa-mag.com/news/choosing-the-highest-safe-withdrawal-rate-at-retirement

Asking this question under two hats, one personal and the other for a non-profit organization. We both have had investments in Certificates of Deposit that have/will mature in the coming months. The question is what do we do with the available cash going forward as the interest returns on the CDs are next to nothing. Fiduciary concerns with the non-profit make investments in equity/bond funds a touchy issue, though on a personal level that is not a particular concern. My wife and I are well into our retirement years with an adequate pension and social security and willing to undertake some risk on future investments, though the current investment climate suggests staying in cash until we see what happens in the next three months or so. Your collective comments and suggestions are most welcome (from a long time reader of the MFO discussions). Thanks.

I would suggest some should be in short term bonds like BSV or SWSBX.

Great advices posted here for those who are approaching retirement and in retirement. Maintaining good health is the key so one can enjoy doing all the activities they want during retirement. Another approach is to enjoy life (hiking, traveling or being active) while you are your young because some of these activities may not be physically possible at older ages. Through my college days, I learned car camping and hike as much as possible due to my limited budget. Out west there are ample outdoor opportunities in the local parks and on the coastline. I enjoyed week long backpacking trips on the Pacific Crest trail but today I do more long day hikes while camping with the family. Wildfire and COVID situation now limited our outdoor activities to long hikes on beaches. Traveling abroad provides wonderful experience and appreciation of other culture, and we have our fair share of doing that. When we get through this COVID-19 with effective vaccines, we would like to visit Australia and New Zealand.
Speaking of saving for retirement, one needs to learn to be good investors (from savers) early in the career so the asset will compound until for the next several decades. Each bear market is a learning lesson. Hopefully one gained experience and become better investors. In private industry, lay-offs are inevitable as ones will change jobs several times throughout their careers. None of which is easy and I certainly have experienced that.

My advice to youngsters is to save as much as they can because they will be facing the perils of lay-offs after 50. If not before. We never went into long-term debt for anything but a house.
We certainly intend to spend down our retirement savings. That's what they're for. We do hope to pass on the principal of some small family inheritances even if we need to take income from them.
Not sure when we'll get to travel under the current circumstances. We logged thousands of miles all over the West before we started having kids. Most of the time we were sleeping under the stars.
I have never been out of North America. But my wife traveled extensively in her career. I'ld like to rent a country place for a while, and visit the farmer's markets, and local establishments. Wife likes my cooking, so she agrees.
Never felt the need to read a book about what to do with my retirement time.

Great comments.
Retirement continues to be good after 15 years. Actively putting attention into maintaining good health makes sense to me as does accepting the aging process as it inevitably occurs. Being close to relatives makes sense in our situation (in some situations it doesn't!). Financially, maintaining a balance between current enjoyment and set asides for the future continues to make sense to me. My simple minded approach for about a decade has been to release income (including some long term gains) from investment accounts to our household account each year. Remaining portfolio balances continue to be set aside for growth, for potential use in extreme emergencies, and for assisting relatives if needed. Any remaining balances will eventually be distributed to heirs and to non-profits.
As my 70th birthday approached last year, I decided to somewhat increase the income being generated by the portfolio for release by beginning to move 25% of the OEF/ETF portfolio balance to a newly created high yield portfolio (an @Junkster thought process led to this decision). That process was recently completed. The new portfolio has been populated with higher yielding stocks (3%+ yields at time of purchase), cefs, bdcs, reits, and commercial mreits. Time will tell if this exercise has been helpful or not!
Income released to the household is used for a variety of general purposes. What remains is mostly used for travel. Unfortunately, an early March return from Hawaii heralded the end to this year's travel. Summer travel plans got cancelled or mothballed. Also, the month in Hawaii scheduled for this coming winter will probably get cancelled soon.
Trips since the pandemic hit have centered around getaways most weeks to our nearby beach cabin (having that has proved to be a real blessing this year). My hope is that a relatively effective vaccine will be fairly widely distributed by next summer. Once that happens, I am hopeful travel risk will be reduced enough that somewhat more normal travel can resume. I am not getting any younger!
After thought: Alway remember life is short! Don't take any day for granted! My wife recently mentioned she could count 19 friends, co-volunteers of hers at the American Legion, and relatives who have passed away during the past year. (We just visited a friend at the coast yesterday who lost his wife to liver cancer during the past month. She was about our age and appeared to be in good health when we last visited them during the winter. The problem was only recently discovered.)

Asking this question under two hats, one personal and the other for a non-profit organization. We both have had investments in Certificates of Deposit that have/will mature in the coming months. The question is what do we do with the available cash going forward as the interest returns on the CDs are next to nothing. Fiduciary concerns with the non-profit make investments in equity/bond funds a touchy issue, though on a personal level that is not a particular concern. My wife and I are well into our retirement years with an adequate pension and social security and willing to undertake some risk on future investments, though the current investment climate suggests staying in cash until we see what happens in the next three months or so. Your collective comments and suggestions are most welcome (from a long time reader of the MFO discussions). Thanks.

Bloomberg Article:
markets-without-havens-are-becoming-all-too-real
The Bloomberg article got me thinking about doing a portfolio review.
Much of the article was focused on volatility and earlier this year I watched VMVFX deal with the pandemic's impact on this fund's focus, minimizing volatility.
I initially liked the concept of a fund (VMVFX)...a global equity fund... that attempted to minimize volatility. The Pandemic tested its strategy and proved its volatility wasn't at all minimal on the downward side of things. I sold out of that position and decided to except "normal" market volatility by purchasing PRGSX instead. The two have diverged since March with PRGSX offering the rewards of upward volatility.
I also noticed that my Moderate Asset allocation fund (PRWCX) YTD lost less and regain more than VMVFX proving that allocation funds are still a great way to manage market risk and reward.
VWINX performed as expected losing less and continues to be my portfolio benchmark (a fund that I compare all my other funds performance against). When other funds in my portfolio out perform VWINX I consider capturing that out performance by selling that fund's alpha back into VWINX. This helps me grow my portfolio's conservative base in good times and is a place where I will pull assets from during retirement minimizing the volatility of my withdrawals. I struggle going one step further by holding sizeable amounts of my portfolio in pure bond funds. I own VFSTX, PRWBX, PTIAX, THOPX, and (a Schwab bond eft) SCHZ.
Q: Is there anything magical out there in mutual/eft fund-land similar to PONDX of yesterday?
I believe even with bonds at historically low returns they still maybe the best way to minimize volatility, especially when thoughtfully combined with well managed allocation funds.
Other fund holdings that have not performed to my expectation:
FRIFX - Very correlated on the downside (to VGSIX) with little upside capture.
THOPX - A Short Term Corporate fund that has performed absolutely awful in the short (YTD) term. Showing no signs of its former performance.

Retirement pleasures put to the side, I would love now to be working, remotely, at any of the editing / writing jobs of my last decades, but would hate to be suddenly downsized and looking; been that and done there, for long anxious years, and now would be ever so much worse.

COVID-19 has thrown a kink into many retirees’ plans. It’s difficult and risky now to do many things that people have saved all of their lives fo — like traveling, visiting family and friends, taking classes, etc. It has helped us by reducing our spending, allowing us to retain our retirement savings and delaying the need to draw on Social Security. I’m still glad that I retired, though, and would hate to be working right now.

Regarding rethinking retirement. I am reading a book by Bill Perkins titled Die With Zero. I thought it was going to merit a one star review but now not so sure. It has really made me think. The gist of the book is to use your money for life experiences before you get too old to enjoy such experiences. Most of us instead are into the senselessness of indefinitely delaying gratification. And then we suddenly wake up and have one health problem after another and there is no gratification to enjoy.
In my case at 73 I am still hiking away with no health issues. But looking back to my sixties there are a lot of things I wish I had done then I don’t particularly feel like doing anymore. Such as cross country traveling to places like Colorado and my old stomping grounds in the Sierras for off the beaten path hiking adventures. My long time girlfriend who is 71 can no longer hike with me because of osteoporosis and that has really put a damper on things. So my advice to you youngsters in your 50s and 60s do whatever now, don’t wait. There are some things in life you don’t need a huge nest egg for. I have a friend who is 56 and a triathlete. He pretty much lives hand to mouth but every year finds a way to travel out west for a couple weeks of extensive hiking as well as participating in a couple triathlons in some exotic locations. Sometimes I envy him and his carefree attitude.
I also have been so focused on accumulating and not spending I find myself with a nest egg of 70x living expenses. I can think of a couple environmental organizations in my will who will enjoy my eventual passing. Again, to you youngsters, enjoy the fruits of your labor when you are at peak health and don’t get so obsessed with accumulation.

NYT article -

What has emerged from your research that retirees should think about?
The importance of interdependence alongside independence — we all would do better in our later years if we’re connected and not isolated. And how do I maximize my health span, not just my life span?
And there’s the serious issue of funding our longer lives. A third of the boomers have close to nothing saved for retirement and no pensions; that is a massive poverty phenomenon about to happen, unless millions of people work a bit longer, spend less, downsize or even share their homes with housemates or family.
What is the biggest mistake retirees make?
Far too many think far too small. I have asked thousands of people from all walks of life over the years who are nearing retirement what they hope to do in retirement. They tell me: ‘I want to get some rest, exercise some more, visit with my family, go on a great vacation, read some great books’ Then most stall. Few have taken the time or effort to study the countless possibilities that await them or imagine or explore all of the incredible ways they can spend the next period of their lives.

rethinking-retirement

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141819/000089418920008331/convergenceliquidation.htm
(CPMNX)
497 1 convergenceliquidation.htm CONVERGENCE 497E
Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
Registration Nos. 333-62298; 811-10401
Convergence Market Neutral Fund
A series of Trust for Professional Managers (the “Trust”)
Supplement dated October 14, 2020
to the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
dated March 29, 2020
The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Trust for Professional Managers (the “Trust”), based upon the recommendation of Convergence Investment Partners, LLC (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the Convergence Market Neutral Fund (the “Fund”), a series of the Trust, has determined to close and liquidate the Fund. The Board concluded that it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund be closed to new purchases, except for purchases made through an automatic investment program, as of the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on October 16, 2020 (the “Closing Date”) and liquidated as a series of the Trust effective as of the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on November 13, 2020 (the “Liquidation Date”).
The Board approved a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) that determines the manner in which the Fund will be liquidated. Pursuant to the Plan and in anticipation of the Fund’s liquidation, the Fund will be closed to new purchases, subject to any exceptions approved by the Trust officers in their sole discretion, effective as of the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on the Closing Date, after which the Fund’s assets may be entirely invested in money market instruments or held in cash. Accordingly, the Fund will no longer be investing according to its investment objective. However, any distributions declared to shareholders of the Fund after the Closing Date and until the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on the Liquidation Date will be automatically reinvested in additional shares of the Fund unless a shareholder specifically requests that such distributions be paid in cash. Although the Fund will be closed to new purchases as of the Closing Date, you may continue to redeem your shares of the Fund until the Liquidation Date, as described in “How to Redeem Shares” in the Fund’s Prospectus.
Pursuant to the Plan, if the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on the Liquidation Date, your shares will be redeemed and you will receive proceeds representing your proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date, subject to any required withholdings. As is the case with any redemption of Fund shares, these liquidation proceeds will generally be subject to federal and, as applicable, state and local income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account and the liquidation proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed.
If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account, the liquidation proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation. You should consult with your tax adviser on the consequences of this redemption to you. If, for example, you hold your shares in an individual retirement account (and “IRA”), you have 60 days from the date you receive your proceeds to reinvest or “rollover” your proceeds into another IRA and maintain their tax-deferred status. You must notify the Fund at 1-877-677-9414 prior to November 13, 2020 of your intent to rollover your IRA account to avoid withholding deductions from your proceeds.
The Adviser will bear all of the expenses incurred in carrying out the Plan.
Shareholder inquiries should be directed to the Fund at 877-677-9414.
Please retain this Supplement with your Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI for reference.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1552947/000158064220003735/redwood497.htm
497 1 redwood497.htm 497
REDWOOD ALPHAFACTOR® TACTICAL CORE FUND
Class N RWTNX
Class I RWTIX
REDWOOD ACTIVIST LEADERS® FUND
Class N RWLNX
Class I RWLIX
Each Series of Two Roads Shared Trust
Supplement dated October 13, 2020 to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
for the Redwood AlphaFactor® Tactical Core Fund and the Redwood Activist Leaders® Fund
each dated February 28, 2020
The Board of Trustees of Two Roads Shared Trust (the “Trust”) has concluded, based upon the recommendation of Redwood Investment Management, LLC, that it is in the best interests of the Redwood AlphaFactor® Tactical Core Fund and the Redwood Activist Leaders® Fund (each a “Fund” and together, the “Funds”) and their respective shareholders that each Fund be liquidated. Pursuant to a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) approved by the Board of Trustees, each Fund will be liquidated and dissolved on or about October 30, 2020.
Each Fund will be closed to all new investments on October 14, 2020. On or about the close of business on October 30, 2020, each Fund will distribute pro rata all of its assets in cash to its shareholders and all outstanding shares will be redeemed and cancelled. Each Fund will not accept any new investments and will no longer pursue its stated investment objective. The Plan for each Fund provides that the Fund will begin liquidating its portfolio as soon as is reasonable and practicable and will invest in cash or cash equivalents (such as money market funds). During this time, each Fund may hold more cash or cash equivalents than normal, which may prevent a Fund from meeting its stated investment objective. Shares of the Funds are not available for purchase.
Prior to October 30, 2020, you may redeem your shares, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the “How to Redeem Shares” section of the Funds’ Prospectus. Unless your investment in a Fund is through a tax-deferred retirement account, you will recognize gain or loss for federal income tax purposes (and for most state and local income tax purposes) on a redemption of your shares, whether as a result of a redemption that you initiate or upon the final liquidating distribution by a Fund, based on the difference between the amount you receive and your tax basis in your shares. Please refer to the “Tax Status, Dividends and Distributions” section in the Prospectus for general information. You may wish to consult your tax advisor about your particular situation. Plan sponsors or plan administrative agents should notify participants that a Fund is liquidating and should provide information about alternative investment options.
ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT REDEEMED OR EXCHANGED THEIR SHARES OF THE FUNDS PRIOR TO OCTOBER 30, 2020 WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OR ACCOUNT OF RECORD.
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
________________________________________
This Supplement, and the Prospectus and SAI, each dated February 28, 2020, provide relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. The Prospectus and the SAI have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and are incorporated by reference. The Prospectus and SAI can be obtained without charge by calling 1-855-RED-FUND (733-3863).

Most excellent! The key is to keep the expense down during retirement. The wild card is medical expense. My wife and I will cross that point in the near future.

I was a professional student for most of the time, even into my 40s. That made the choice easy: no income. No house. The way I'm hard-wired, SIMPLICITY is a key priority. I lived in the family home for a few years after retirement. Mortgage was long ago paid. The crime (01108, I don't recommend it) drove me away sooner than we'd planned to leave. Lucky to have in-law cousins here. Mom (back East) is in a fancy stand-alone condo by a golf course. My step-father played. He's gone now, though. ...Great place, new. Open floor plan. But the condom (sic) assoc. monthly fees are absurd. ..... Anyone who BUYS in Hawaii these days is either stupid or foolish. EVERY politician running for election states that homelessness is a huge problem that must be addressed. AFFORDABLE housing is gone, just gone. That's true for renters, too. To buy a house here now would be to strap an albatross around your neck. Unless you're just filthy rich and don't care, and you can afford a waterfront home. On Oahu, lots are tiny. It's heaven, but it's crowded.

https://medium.com/@ronaldviatori/technical-analysis-is-bullshit-b7ffce78425e

BS or not, I have been using T/A successfully for about 20 years. T/A is only one part of my system. I never held a losing fund too long and since retirement in 2018 I didn't lose more than 1% from any last top. T/A just help me to be a better consistent discipline trader.