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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • M-Mkt Fund Vulnerabilities - YELLEN, 3/30/23
    If there is any place where the vulnerabilities of the system to runs and fire sales have been clear-cut, it is money market funds.
    ...
    Even without a fixed NAV, liquidity mismatch in other kinds of funds can still make them vulnerable to runs and fire sales.
    Falling between the cracks here are floating NAV money market funds - neither fixed NAV nor other (non-MM) kind of fund. I suspect this was an unintended omission.
    The alternative would be that she considers floating NAV MMFs to be relatively immune to runs and fire sales. That's not beyond the realm of possibility. The MMF runs she describes are due to funds breaking a buck and investors rushing for the gates (a la SVB, Reserve Fund) - first mover advantage.
    Floating NAV MMFs by definition can't break a buck - they aren't fixed to a $1 nominal NAV. Redemption values vary continuously (fractions of a percent) rather than discretely (1%, a penny at a time).
    FWIW, one can invest in floating NAV MMFs via Merrill. That's one of the very few advantages I can see in that brokerage, though one of which I'm not partaking.
    Footnote 13 (in the OP) is a cite to https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2021-258
    The proposed MMF rules she refers to would have removed redemption fees/gating, and imposed swing pricing on institutional funds. This 2021 proposal is still being worked on and seems to still be accepting comments (last one was Feb 2023).
    Proposal: https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2021/34-93784.pdf
    Fact sheet: https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2021/ic-34441-fact-sheet.pdf
    Comments: https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-22-21/s72221.htm
    Mutual fund managers responded to the redemption fee/gating rules by managing the funds more conservatively so that the rules would never be triggered. They were concerned that if a fund got close to that point, investors would stampede out - first mover advantage redux.
    Or something else might spook investors. Say, a pandemic.
    Evidence indicates that SEC's reforms did not prevent runs during the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, prime MMFs—which can invest in all types of short-term debt instruments—held by institutional investors experienced net redemptions of about 30 percent of their total assets in a 2-week period in March 2020 (see figure). Some evidence also indicates SEC's reforms may have contributed to the runs. Some investors may have preemptively redeemed MMF shares to avoid incurring a liquidity fee or losing access to their funds under a redemption gate.
    https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-105535
    Notable in that report and in the SEC's proposal is the focus on institutional investors. (Swing pricing for institutional investors, relaxed restrictions on retail investors.) As with SVB, institutional investors are apparently the elephants in the room stomping on everyone else.
  • M-Mkt Fund Vulnerabilities - YELLEN, 3/30/23
    "The structural vulnerabilities at the heart of money market and open-end funds aren’t new. In the banking sector, capital and liquidity requirements and federal deposit insurance reduce the likelihood of runs taking place. In case runs occur, access to the discount window helps provide buffers for banks. Yet the financial stability risks posed by money market and open-end funds have not been sufficiently addressed.
    Over the past two years, the SEC has proposed rules to mitigate the vulnerabilities plaguing these funds.13 The SEC’s proposals would reduce the first-mover advantage, reducing run incentives during times of stress. They would also require new liquidity management tools, while mandating more comprehensive and timely information on these funds for the SEC and investors."
    https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1376
  • Neighbor chat. House sale, capital gains on sale. Improvements adjusted for today's cost ???
    Be careful what you ask about. You might get more than you bargained for :-)
    There were a couple of exceptions to the "usual" step up rule in the past, there's one current exception (in timing), and potentially one in the future. Perhaps others that I'm not aware of.
    Step-up in basis has been eliminated twice during the past 50 years, and each time, the change was short-lived.
    Step-up in basis was first eliminated by the Tax Reform Act of 1976 and replaced with a carryover basis regime. The carryover basis rules were heavily criticized and repealed a few years later, before they had taken effect.
    The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 repealed the estate tax and adopted a carryover basis regime [no step up] for calendar year 2010 only ...
    Congress eventually threw everyone a curveball. In mid-December [2010], Congress retroactively restored the estate tax and step-up in basis for 2010 decedents. However, for decedents who died in 2010, estate executors could opt out of the estate tax and into a carryover basis tax regime.
    https://www.aperiogroup.com/blogs/repeal-of-basis-step-up-third-times-the-charm
    The current estate tax law generally provides for a step up (or down) to current value as of date of death. However, for estates subject to the estate tax, an executor can elect to do an assessment of all assets in the estate (it's all or nothing) on the alternate valuation date six months after the date of death, assuming that would result in lower federal estate taxes.
    The exception to this exception is if an asset is transferred (via sale, distribution, or other method) prior to the end of the six month period, the individual asset is valued as of the date of transfer.
    Recent federal and state proposals are floating around to tax billionaires on unrealized capital gains annually based on mark-to-market valuations.
    https://itep.org/president-bidens-proposed-billionaires-minimum-income-tax-would-ensure-the-wealthiest-pay-a-reasonable-amount-of-income-tax/
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/01/17/wealth-taxes-state-level/
    Under these proposals there would be no need for a step up because assets would already be valued at their last annual market price. Further, often these proposals are limited to easily priced securities. They might treat real estate and securities differently.
  • Neighbor chat. House sale, capital gains on sale. Improvements adjusted for today's cost ???
    A little common sense here would go a long way. If one could use current day prices for some of the costs (improvements), then why not also use current price for the base cost as well? Voilà, no capital gain, nada. Problem solved :-)
    OF course no one ever said that the tax rules made sense.
    Isn't that the case when an asset, like a stock...maybe even a house ...is inherited? This "step up basis" provision basically reprices the asset to the date of transfer.
    https://investopedia.com/terms/s/stepupinbasis.asp
  • Neighbor chat. House sale, capital gains on sale. Improvements adjusted for today's cost ???
    A little common sense here would go a long way. If one could use current day prices for some of the costs (improvements), then why not also use current price for the base cost as well? Voilà, no capital gain, nada. Problem solved :-)
    OF course no one ever said that the tax rules made sense.
  • Five things we learned from the Senate hearing on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
    ssue not easily dismissed by red herring arguments. Of course other instances of injustice have existed throughout history. Doesn’t in any way explain or justify this instance.
    I think you missed my point. Depositors who get "only" $250K of insurance are not being cheated. They are getting their fair share of coverage. It's the fact that someone else is receiving extra that's the red herring. Sure you're envious, sure you think they shouldn't have gotten that extra coverage, but that's got nothing to do with how much coverage you fairly deserve - $250K.
    My insurer decides to cover neighbor’s loss. Says it will recoup its expenses by raising my insurance rates and those of other paying customers.
    You bring up cost, suggesting that this windfall (SVB depositor unlimited coverage) to others is costing you money. As has been recently pointed out, the FDIC bailout will be paid for by other banks, not by taxpayers. So the broad populace isn't bearing the insurance cost.
    What about the costs you bear indirectly as a customer of a bank being assessed for this bailout? In 1993 the FDIC changed the way it charged banks for coverage - the more risky the bank, the more they were charged (risk-based premiums). So some of this is already built into the system. And unlike the auto insurance example that's based by neighborhood, this premium discrimination appears to be done bank by bank.
    From what OJ posted at the top, it looks like the cost of the bailout might also be apportioned among banks according to the risks they pose. IMHO that would be a good idea.
    Finally, in your example, your neighbor was uninsured, rather than underinsured. There's a red herring FDIC does not bail out non-member banks. Those banks don't pose systemic risks because depositors at FDIC member banks will not start pulling money out upon seeing a non-member bank failing.
  • Neighbor chat. House sale, capital gains on sale. Improvements adjusted for today's cost ???
    No, only the historic costs can be used for taxable gains and IRS purposes. This is common in formal accounting too.
  • Neighbor chat. House sale, capital gains on sale. Improvements adjusted for today's cost ???
    House sale and capital improvements to calculate capital gains on sale question.
    So, house purchased for 'x' $ 20 years ago.
    There is a capital gain on the sale of the property, which will be taxable.
    Improvements to the property may be used to change the 'cost basis' for calculating full capital gains tax.
    My question (below) is that it was stated that the owners made numerous improvements to the property over the years; which did provide for a higher sales price.
    One example is, a very nice fence that was placed around the property that cost $5,000 15 years ago, but would cost $15,000 to build today.
    The seller, of course, wants to keep the capital gains tax on the sale as low as possible.
    It is my understanding that they may use the original $5,000 to change the 'cost basis'; whereas it is suggested they may use the $15,000 cost (when the house was sold), if the fence was installed today, to calculate the 'cost basis'.
    In effect, they are suggesting using an 'inflation adjusted' value.
    Is this allowed in the IRS tax code for calculating a property sale 'cost basis' to establish the capital gains amount???
    Thank you for your time in sorting this conflict of thought about this process.
    Catch
  • Crisis of HTM - Banks, Brokerages, Insurance, Pension Funds
    There is lot of negative news on the CRE exposures of smaller banks. The 3 US bank failures so far had high exposures to US Treasuries (HTM*, AFS*) and had industry concentrations in tech (private-equity, venture-capital) and cryptos. No US bank has failed yet for the CRE exposure, but if that happens, that may be the max negativity for CREs. Affected may be quarterly-liquid (TIAA) T-REA and illiquid/nontraded-REITs - BREIT, SREIT (typical limits 2% per month, 5% per quarter), etc.
    Story is similar. The HTM portfolio is NOT marked-to-market. While that is "legal" and "allowed" by the accounting rules, it was clear to the "market" (but not to regulators?) that IF the HTM Treasuries were marked-to-market, the equity (the book values) of the failed banks would have been wiped out. When the bank runs happened, the HTM and AWS distinction basically disappeared. In the CREs, the revaluations are slow (e.g. T-REA), or not even done (some nontraded-REITs).
    Another concern is that the HTM and AWS practices are also found among insurance/annuity companies and pension funds, not just among banks, credit unions, brokerages.
    *HTM - Hold-to-maturity (these are not marked-to-market), AWS - Available-for-sale (these are marked-to-market)
  • Top institutional & fund holders - SCHW
    Not that I know what I'm talking about but while SCHW's profits could well be affected -- temporarily -- by increased costs of capital neither it nor its millions of clients will be going anywhere. Outflows from its MMFs? They've reversed. Schwab Bank is the tail on the dog. Schwab could (did) profitably exist without it. I guess we'll see, when first quarter fund reports come out, what mega-money managers did: buy or sell.
  • RMDs and Credit Unions
    As I noted elsewhere my local credit union offered a 5+% rate on a 15-month CD with as little as $1,000 about 3 weeks ago. Took a quick look. Gosh, I hold very little cash in any form and what minimal amount is held needs to be fully liquid. I enjoy investing and spread the risk around across diverse assets which in aggregate, I believe, offer better return potential than cash. Am also inclined to lock-in short term gains (at the cost of potentially greater returns) which lowers overall risk. And it certainly helps to have a pension plus SS. So just not into cash - much as I’d like to support my local credit union.
    With so little cash it’s not worth my time and effort seeking out the best return. Fido’s SPAXX.works for me - being essentially a store of “dry powder” in case bargains appear. It’s been interesting, educational - and mildly amusing - watching many posters seeking-out the best rates across the banking industry or treasury market for many months now. I understand and respect their reasons, trusting that’s what works for them.
    As far as RMDs are concerned, at a much earlier age I converted most of my IRA anssets into Roths. The fact that they require no RMDs was a primary reason for so doing. The remaining smaller traditional IRA requires RMDs, but I typically pull more than required from that every year anyway to supplement expenses - the Roth being reserved for larger purchases / unexpected contingencies..
  • What was the San Francisco Fed's role in SVB collapse?
    Nice article. Do you know where to find that “academic study”. ( one of the worst features of most newspapers is their refusal to provide references to their facts and quotes)
    I aam not sure what the regulators could have done if they knew that Thiel et al would panic. Restrict withdrawals? Could they legally have done that? Insist they raise more capital?
    It was the attempt to raise more capital that triggered the run
  • Does anyone have a fav fund or two LOOKING FORWARD
    @rforno: I looked at the four CGGO managers' bios and found a decidedly international bent to the team. 2 are Europeans based in Geneva, 1 a Brit based in Singapore, and 1 American working from SF. At least 3 manage(d) a global growth and income fund listed in Luxembourg. Capital Group seems to be able to keep their talent, as these folks have remained there for some time. CGGO currently holds about 50% US stocks. The fund traded more than 1M shares today, so no problem with liquidity or big spreads.
    By way of contrast, Harbor brought an international ETF to market last fall (OSEA). I have been following it, but have given up on buying it because it hasn't attracted much interest at all. This afternoon, when international ETFs were doing quite well, OSEA had traded only 1 share.
    Yup, which is among the reasons I respect them. Sure, I have quibbles about their need to offer 20+ share classes of funds, many of which have front-end loads, but on the whole, they're a huge low-key company that often flies under the radar -- and rarely has folks doing the CNBC thing, which also says a lot about their priorities, I think.
  • Does anyone have a fav fund or two LOOKING FORWARD
    @rforno: I looked at the four CGGO managers' bios and found a decidedly international bent to the team. 2 are Europeans based in Geneva, 1 a Brit based in Singapore, and 1 American working from SF. At least 3 manage(d) a global growth and income fund listed in Luxembourg. Capital Group seems to be able to keep their talent, as these folks have remained there for some time. CGGO currently holds about 50% US stocks. The fund traded more than 1M shares today, so no problem with liquidity or big spreads.
    By way of contrast, Harbor brought an international ETF to market last fall (OSEA). I have been following it, but have given up on buying it because it hasn't attracted much interest at all. This afternoon, when international ETFs were doing quite well, OSEA had traded only 1 share.
  • What was the San Francisco Fed's role in SVB collapse?
    Following are abridged excerpts from an excellent article by Kathleen Pender, in The San Francisco Chronicle:
    One of the biggest questions to come out of the Silicon Valley Bank debacle is: Where were the regulators?
    SVB’s regulators for safety and soundness were the Federal Reserve, primarily the San Francisco Fed, and the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation, known as DFPI. Although hindsight is 20-20, there were some big red flags waving at SVB.
    Some short sellers, who bet on stocks they think will fall, and other investors saw warning signs. One author who posts under the name CashFlow Hunter on SeekingAlpha.com pretty much nailed it in a Dec. 19 post titled “SVB Financial: Blow Up Risk.”
    The Fed reportedly stepped up its oversight of SVB and issued six warnings last year. But it failed to take decisive action before the state regulator seized the bank and turned it over to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. on March 10. Hoping to prevent contagion, the government agreed to guarantee all deposits in SVB and Signature Bank, which failed on March 12, and provide a lifeline in the form of emergency loans to other banks.
    Fed Chairman Jerome Powell seemed to acknowledge regulatory lapses in a press conference last week, when he said, “Clearly we do need to strengthen supervision and regulation.” Both the Fed and DFPI said they are reviewing their oversight of SVB and will issue reports in early May. Until then, both declined to discuss their supervision of the bank.
    What went wrong at SVB?
    Although SVB mainly served venture-backed tech and biotech startups, it wasn’t done in by its own loan portfolio. Its problem stemmed from an old-fashioned maturity mismatch between assets (such as loans and securities) and liabilities (such as deposits). From December 2019 to December 2021 – when tech was booming and companies were flush with cash from venture capital and initial public offerings – SVB’s deposits tripled, to $189.2 billion.
    Because its customers didn’t need a lot of loans, the bank invested a big chunk of these deposits in long-term bonds backed by government-backed mortgages and Treasury bonds. Although these bonds had almost no default risk, they had gobs of interest-rate risk. SVB purchased most of these bonds when interest rates were near historic lows because they yielded a bit more than short-term securities. When the Fed started ratcheting up interest rates in March 2022 to fight raging inflation, the bonds lost value.
    To meet withdrawals, the bank announced on March 8 that it had sold bonds at a $1.8 billion loss and planned to sell $2 billion in stock. The next day, its shares fell 60%, sparking a lightning-speed run on the bank. SVB was seized the following day.
    What were the red flags?
    A big one: About 96% of its deposits at the end of last year were uninsured – the highest of any bank with more than $50 billion in assets, according to S&P Global. The average for all U.S. banks is a little below half, said Amit Seru, a finance professor at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business. Another was its bulging bond portfolio. In 2021, the bank had taken steps to “hedge” or reduce its interest rate risk, but by the end of 2022, it had virtually no hedging in place, according to the Wall Street Journal. Also, the bank was also without a chief risk officer for eight months last year.
    Why did SVB have so many uninsured deposits?
    It generally required its loan customers to keep all of their banking deposits at SVB. Even if it wasn’t a requirement, most startups keep all of their cash at a single bank because it’s convenient.
    Who regulated SVB?
    It’s complicated. Banks can choose to be chartered by the state or federal government. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency regulates nationally chartered banks. State-chartered banks “have both federal and state oversight,” the DFPI said via email. In California, state-chartered banks that are members of the Federal Reserve System have the Fed as their primary federal regulator. SVB was in this category.
    The FDIC is the primary federal regulator for California-chartered banks that are not Fed members. San Francisco’s First Republic Bank, which is also under pressure, is in this camp. California requires almost all banks to be examined at least once a year. “We fulfill this obligation with the help of our federal regulatory partners through joint examinations,” the DFPI wrote.
    Neither the DFPI nor the Fed would say who did what at SVB. In addition, all banks in California have FDIC insurance and therefore must comply with certain FDIC rules. SVB’s consumer activities were regulated by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. And its publicly traded parent company was regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Fed.
    Which regulator was responsible for preventing the bank’s failure?
    Did the Fed take any steps to prevent a failure? Yes, according to news reports citing unnamed sources, but not enough. As early as 2019, the Fed alerted management to problems with the bank’s risk controls, the Wall Street Journal reported. In early 2022, the San Francisco Fed appointed a more senior team of examiners to SVB, Bloomberg said.
    Last year, examiners issued about six citations known as “matters requiring attention” and “matters requiring immediate attention.” These are “supervisory memos urging but not compelling action,” the Journal reported. Powell seemed to confirm the six citations.
    According to the New York Times, by July 2022, the bank “was in a full supervisory review,” and was “ultimately rated deficient for governance and controls. It was placed under restrictions that prevented it from growing through acquisitions.” By early this year it was in a horizontal review that identified additional weaknesses. But “at that point, the bank’s days were numbered.”
    Why didn’t the Fed pay more attention to how its interest-rate increases would affect bank solvency?
    “Their mindset was inflation, inflation, inflation,” said Stanford finance professor Amit Seru.
    SVB is often called unique, because of its concentrated client base, large unrealized bond losses and enormous level of uninsured deposits. But while it was extreme, it is hardly the only bank at risk of a run. Other banks took in large deposits in 2020-21 and invested them in long-term bonds that seemed safe, at least from default.
    An academic study published shortly after the bank failed looked at more than 4,800 U.S. banks to gauge their exposure to interest-rate and deposit-flight risk, the factors that led to SVB’s collapse. They found that the average bank’s bonds and other long-term assets have lost around 10% percent of their value over the past year and are worth about 9% less than the value shown on their books. About 10% of banks had worse levels of unrealized losses than SVB. But in terms of uninsured deposits as a percent of assets, SVB was in the top 1%.
    The researchers estimated banks’ ability to withstand a run under various withdrawal scenarios. In one, it assumed that half of all uninsured deposits flee. “The bank under this case is considered insolvent if the (market) value of assets – after paying all uninsured depositors – is insufficient to repay all insured deposits,” the authors wrote. In this case, 186 banks holding about $300 billion in insured deposits would be considered insolvent. Most are small and mid-size banks but several are large, with more than $250 billion in assets.
    “There is no doubt a ton of stress in the banking system,” said Stanford’s Seru, one of the co-authors. “But because of what the Fed has done, we are not going to see failures, at least that come out, in the immediate future. The Fed has to figure out how to take many weak banks in the system and either shut them down or have them consolidate into something that is viable.” *
    * Text emphasis added.
  • Does anyone have a fav fund or two LOOKING FORWARD
    Thanks for those ideas @rforno. CGGO looks promising. I have not replaced the global growth funds that swooned in 2022, i.e., Kristian Heugh and MS funds. Do you know if the managers of CGGO run an equivalent MF strategy?
    I think their equity ETFs follow their multi-manager 'sleeve'-oriented house approach to investing. It's not flashy and rarely knocks it out of the park, but I've been fairly pleased w/how the AF team runs their funds, several of which I own in very large amounts. I've not looked closely but all 4 ETF managers have been with Capital for over 20 years so presumably they've been managing/co-managing other funds.
  • Credit Default Swaps
    see below of bank perpetual preferred summary via Bloomberg:
    Issuer Spread (bps) Yield
    Citizens Financial 2775 30.47%
    Bank of New York Mellon 1386 17.13%
    Capital One Financial 1066 14.19%
    PNC Financial Services 907 12.70%
    Citigroup 805 12.03%
    State Street 743 12.26%
    U.S. Bancorp 723 10.69%
    JPMorgan Chase 716 11.38%
    Goldman Sachs 642 10.36%
    Bank of America 634 10.24%
    Truist Bank 586 9.97%
    Wells Fargo 563 9.62%
    TD Group US Holdings 534 8.62%
    Morgan Stanley 350 7.72%
  • Does anyone have a fav fund or two LOOKING FORWARD
    I'm looking closely at CGDV and CGGO for actively managed ETFs covering dividend growth and global growth. I like the Capital Group and prefer that approach versus index-based stuff.
  • Credit Default Swaps
    If you read the panic-news, Schwab/SCHW 5-yr CDS have about "tripled" to 120s (from 40s), but that (absolute) level still isn't concerning. Credit Suisse CDS near the end were 300s (of course, they also crossed 120s at some point). These are in bps.
    Barron's this week has a bearish (but sloppy) story on SCHW. I will watch how it trades on Monday. It is still above +73.5% from 2020 Covid low. https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/990/thread
    BEARISH. Schwab (SCHW; cash-sorting – lot of cash is leaving Schwab because its brokerage accounts don’t offer money-market funds as core/settlement account and Schwab Bank rates are paltry; 50% of 2022 revenues were from net interest revenues; the HTM portfolio is carried at par, but if marked-to-market, losses would well exceed the capital base; Schwab points out that the AFS portfolio (already market-to-market) will provide ample liquidity; insiders bought stock to boost confidence; stock may remain weak; a full-page ad on its government SNVXX and retail-prime SWVXX money-market funds is on pg 21; pg 14)
    Schwab has issued statements such as that even if 100% of its bank deposits leave, it has enough liquidity to meet that. And its insiders have bought stock.