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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 2025 Performance For 10 Largest Active Funds
    Yup, their ETFs are pretty solid, I must say.
    If/when they ever launch ETF clones of their OEFs that can be exchanged tax-free, I will jump at that opportunity for sure.
  • 2025 Performance For 10 Largest Active Funds
    Being self-employed I never invested with them because of the front end load. My loss perhaps. I am glad that I locked unto their Capital Group managed ETF's however.
    I never heard of these ETFs. What is so special about them as compared to others or mutual funds?
  • Bulls Only: Every Wall Street Analyst Now Predicts a Stock Rally
    i suspect today's broad dumping of precious metals is a play to capture 2026 equity gains.

    The precious metals have rebounded to 80% of yesterday 5.6% loss.
    The circular investment and concentrated AI stocks may present challenges to hit new high. 2022 was the turning point of new lows for both stocks and bonds simultaneously. And that was only 3 years ago.
    Edit: . Seriously doubt that he made outstanding gain in 2022. Even for those who were 100% in cash, money market yield was only about 1%. The yield curve did not invert until the FED raised the interest rate. Very few bond funds had positive gain.

    i'm no fd fan but i'd guess he made 10% plus or minus for the year, assuming he was actually invested in the bond funds he sometimes-long-after-the-fact said he was in, which i know to be spurious in at least 2 instances. so, in brief: who knows?
    Seriously, I mentioned several funds last May on my site. All you have to do is use a chart and see what they have done.
    I already made over 11% YTD. You can also see since retirement as of today, using about 97% bond OEFs.
    https://ibb.co/SDcTzkhd
  • Bulls Only: Every Wall Street Analyst Now Predicts a Stock Rally
    i suspect today's broad dumping of precious metals is a play to capture 2026 equity gains.

    The precious metals have rebounded to 80% of yesterday 5.6% loss.
    The circular investment and concentrated AI stocks may present challenges to hit new high. 2022 was the turning point of new lows for both stocks and bonds simultaneously. And that was only 3 years ago.
    Edit: . Seriously doubt that he made outstanding gain in 2022. Even for those who were 100% in cash, money market yield was only about 1%. The yield curve did not invert until the FED raised the interest rate. Very few bond funds had positive gain.
    i'm no fd fan but i'd guess he made 10% plus or minus for the year, assuming he was actually invested in the bond funds he sometimes-long-after-the-fact said he was in, which i know to be spurious in at least 2 instances. so, in brief: who knows?
  • Vanguard Customer "Service."
    GREAT Vanguard service! Got this VG Flagship email TODAY, 12/31/25. I heard in the OP interview that they are trying to bring back old services such as Flagship, etc. But do they have copy editors?
    From: Vanguard Flagship Services
    Sent: Wednesday, December 31, 2025 5:10 AM
    To: .....
    Subject: We're here to help you prepare for tax season
    Visit Vanguard's tax center for all the answers you need |
    Flagship Services®
    Welcome to 2021! We're here to help you get off to a strong start.
    While the tax-filing deadline is months away, it's not too soon to get prepared—and Vanguard's online tax center is a great place to start. We've gathered lots of helpful information there, including:
    • When to expect your 2020 tax forms. (You can also sign up for e-delivery to be notified as soon as your forms are available online.)
    • Why you might not receive IRS Form 1099-DIV.
    • Where to find the 2020 dividend and capital gains distributions for your Vanguard funds.
    • Help for your most common tax questions.
    Start planning today
    Thank you for belonging to the Vanguard community of investors
    .....
  • Bulls Only: Every Wall Street Analyst Now Predicts a Stock Rally
    i suspect today's broad dumping of precious metals is a play to capture 2026 equity gains.
    The precious metals have rebounded to 80% of yesterday 5.6% loss.
    The circular investment and concentrated AI stocks may present challenges to hit new high. 2022 was the turning point of new lows for both stocks and bonds simultaneously. And that was only 3 years ago.
    Edit: . Seriously doubt that he made outstanding gain in 2022. Even for those who were 100% in cash, money market yield was only about 1%. The yield curve did not invert until the FED raised the interest rate. Very few bond funds had positive gain.
  • Trillions and Trillions
    Remember 1,2,skip a few...99,100?
    Here we are now counting in trillions of US dollars (approximations):
    Total Bitcoin = $1.7T
    All Gold = $25T
    US Real Estate Market = $55T (up from $20T in 2020)
    Global Real Estate Market = $393T
    All US Equities = $60T
    All World Equities = $124T
    US Bond Market = $46T
    US Debt = $38T
    World Bond Market = $121T
    Global Debt = $251T
    Visual Capitalist breaks down the World Equity markets:
    https://visualcapitalist.com/124-trillion-global-stock-market-by-region/
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Sven said,
    - "These days we rebalance when the opportunities present themselves."
    Agree with ya there. Lock-in gains - especially the nice ones.
    - "Picked up few shares of SLVR and GDX to increase the alternative bucket."
    I won't touch precious metals with a 10-foot pole. But do own a few investment grade Morgans.
    Also have some limited exposure to the precious metals through more broadly diversified funds.
    - "Congrats to @Old_Joe who made similar move."
    Ditto @Old_Joe / Just remember: "It ain't over 'til the fat-lady sings."
    - "Sold some VOO"
    Generally speaking I don't invest in S&P index funds or similar.
    - "Bought some EM mid-cap value funds."
    Sounds like a smart move. However, I've somewhat backed off on the midcaps. Did pick up a little BATRA today, an indirect play on real estate and internet sports betting. EM? Prone to streaks of under and overperformance
    - "Goal is to shift US equity more to oversea that have more attractive valuation."
    A worthy goal. I'd be a little careful as many overseas markets have had a nice run-up.
    - "Sold some PRWCX"
    It's been a great fund. I owned it many years ago.
    - "Bought some international value funds"
    I do think there's value in value. About all I look at any more.
    - "Increased oversea bond allocation using DODLX and NRDCX"
    Agree with having a toe-hold on international currencies & bonds. But use care. Many foreign currencies have had a nice run up.
    - "$ 38 trillion national debt and $950 billion annual interest worry us."
    Yes. Worries many. Simplest (and most likely) solution is to monetize the debt by allowing the dollar to erode in value. Short term they'll try to reduce interest expense by holding rates down, but likely to backfire long term.
    - "Maintaining 5-10% in cash and cash equivalent as we approach retirement."
    My direct cash holdings are around 20% of portfolio. Toss in in what's held thru diversified funds and it's closer to 30%.
    - "Our annual gain is modest with our globally diversified and conservative portfolio.'
    - "Risk mitigation remains our main goal ... "
    Agree with both of above.
    - Like @hank bucket approach and the naming nomenclature.
    It helps me to think more clearly to have a structured portfolio plan. Lots of different concepts and terms can be utilized - with names like: buckets, sleeves, ranges, subsets, targets, limits and nominal positions.
    Thanks for the mention @Sven Very nice summary by you.
  • Bulls Only: Every Wall Street Analyst Now Predicts a Stock Rally
    i dont see an overwhelming amount of factors against the typical jan effect.
    but it may not last the entire q1 2026.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/65194/jan-effect-2026#latest
    i suspect today's broad dumping of precious metals is a play to capture 2026 equity gains.
    Interesting.
    I am prepared to go in several directions. A portfolio with lots of cash. A strong FI component. A value shift in 2025. Plenty of legacy tech. I feel pretty comfortable watching how things evolve.
    My YTD return @ 62% equity is ~16.5%. Standing pat for now. Official retirement in 6 months and counting.
  • Bulls Only: Every Wall Street Analyst Now Predicts a Stock Rally
    i dont see an overwhelming amount of factors against the typical jan effect.
    but it may not last the entire q1 2026.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/65194/jan-effect-2026#latest
    i suspect today's broad dumping of precious metals is a play to capture 2026 equity gains.
  • Box Spread Loans
    There was a thread on BOXX in 02/2024. It uses box-spreads but the discussion then focused in tax deferral aspect that BOXX claimed. But some in media were skeptical that BOXX holders would pay gains on sale only and not the imputed interest that applies to many things. So, the risk there is an adverse IRS ruling once it has time. The ETF strategy looked complicated for slightly better TRs than T-Bills.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/62043/boxx-etf
    ETF.com had a short blurb on it in 11/2025,
    https://www.etf.com/sections/features/boxx-etf-doubles-size-investors-chase-tax-efficient-yield
  • Box Spread Loans
    Only out of intellectual curiosity - Are the net cash outflow treated as a capital loss or as interest expense?
  • $1 Trillion Pulled from Actively Managed Funds in 2025
    Here's the story - Can't vouch for the source, but story is in line with what's being reported by Bloomberg.
    Excerpt:
    "Investors spent 2025 pulling money ... Roughly $1 trillion left active equity mutual funds as frustration built ...
    "The S&P 500 kept hitting records, but the gains came from the same tight group of seven American tech giants. Owning anything else meant falling behind, and investors noticed. Fund managers who aimed for balance faced a brutal setup. A portfolio packed with many sectors looked sensible on paper, but the market only cared about megacap tech ...
    "As the year moved on, cash flowed out steadily. Estimates from Bloomberg Intelligence using ICI data show about $1 trillion pulled from active equity mutual funds. That marked the 11th straight year of net outflows and the deepest of the cycle. Passive equity exchange-traded funds moved the other way and took in more than $600 billion.
    "
    What could possibly go wrong?
  • FPA Queens Road Value ETF in registration
    I like this as a shareholder in the mutual fund who is sitting on unrealized gains, but I worry about capacity constraints in a small cap fund. I prefer managers who can and will soft or hard close to new money if it compromises the ability to execute on the investment strategy. Can’t do that with an ETF. Would be interested in hearing the PM’s views on this.
  • 2025 Performance For 10 Largest Active Funds
    Being self-employed I never invested with them because of the front end load. My loss perhaps. I am glad that I locked unto their Capital Group managed ETF's however.
  • Seven Investment Types M* Portfolio Strategist Does Not Own
    Well, I don't own any I-Bonds and I'm not compelled to ditch the others mentioned based on this report. The author seems to lean toward Capital Appreciation focused positions which might be appropriate over an investment journey but maybe not so much for those who are more focused on Capital Preservation. To each their own.
  • The Snowball ETF in registration
    "The Fund’s investment strategy is to generally invest in equity securities of companies that exhibit strong capital appreciation potential.
    We all have that goal, eh? Generally, we always seek potential.
    There must be some other funds with this goal.....
    End of being a smart arse, for the moment.
  • Investing in Precious Metals - a Primer - redux
    Howdy folks,
    I posted this originally on this board back about a dozen years ago during the PM bull market that ran from 2002 to 2011. Seeing that gold is up about 71% YTD and silver +147%, seems it might be appropriate to post an update. I've collected coins for 70 years and this is my third bull market in the metals. In that late 70s, during the Hunt Bros bull, I was finishing my degree (finally) in Econ on the GI bill augmented by a stash of 90% silver coinage I had bought out of change during a restaurant gig. The big bonanza from 2002 to 2011 was easy as I was working with self-manage retirement accounts. It was fun. Now, I'm retired and normally have our portfolios on cruise-control, but good golly, the bull is running.
    As a qualifier, I've been suggesting a PM holding of 3-7% for decades as an investment. More than that is speculation, which is fine, but different.
    First of all, physical bullion in your possession is the best of all possible ways to invest. Cripes, a roll of American Gold Eagles is about 2" tall and the size of a quarter in diameter. It's worth about $95,000 right now and you can stash it in the oatmeal box. A 100oz bar of silver is about $7700 and you can paint it black and use it as a door stop. Or you can buy bling, but not designer stuff. You don't want to pay a premium for the name.
    Many of you, myself included, use self-managed retirement funds and taxable monies to invest and speculate. With the PMs, there are two ways of playing them - bullion and mining stocks. There are bullion ETFs but keep them tax-deferred or exempt as gains get hit at 28%. For myself, I will only deal with Sprott ETFs for bullion because they must have possession of the bullion before they can sell you shares. This is unlike most of the bullion ETFs which do not have this rule and can take your money and then go looking for physical bullion with which to back it up. Right now, acquiring physical bullion is an international problem, particularly silver.
    The other way of investing is with the mining stocks. The gold and silver miners. Kitco has the best listing.
    https://www.kitco.com/mining/mining-equities
    Of note is that over 70% of silver comes as a by-product of other mining - lead, zinc and copper. This is why it's hard to increase production to meet skyrocketing industrial demand. Some of these penny stocks are serious nosebleed stuff. That said, you can make a killing if you do your homework. While I own a few individual stocks [I just can't help myself], I choose to use ETFs that specialize in gold, silver, both, large cap, small cap miners, etc. Right now I'm riding SILJ, SGDJ, SLVR, PSLV, AND CEF.
    Bias? Sure, I prefer silver to gold, although I am riding both. Silver has always exhibited much greater leverage than gold. In the Hunt Bros. bull, gold rose 3x, silver rose 10x. Same thing in the 2002-2011 bull and it's happening again right now. Why is this? I believe it involves that Gold Silver Ratio being artificial due to bullion having a paper price and physical price. Originally, I thought it was bullion ETFs, but now it seems to trace back to the 70's. There is also the supply issue which in the face of increased demand is huge. You've got Central banks and sovereign states buying and industrial usage has gone nuts. Feh, all this puts a bottom under the price.
    BTW, an ounce of silver is now worth more than a barrel of oil.
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono