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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How the Trump Administration Is Giving Even More Tax Breaks to the Wealthy
    Yes, of whatever Party, the uber-wealthy look out for their vested interests. But even someone like myself who is as far from wealthy as can be, owns UNITS (not shares) in a MLP. The dividends are not taxable. Why? They are treated as Return of Capital.---until my cost basis becomes zero. THAT'S never going to happen. So, even before I knew I was playing the game, I've been playing the game.
    It kills me that for those in the middle tax brackets, they pay more in federal tax that the ultra-wealthy who are taxed at a lower rate on their dividends, as they relax, sipping cocktails. Shit.
  • Starting a new thread: Bloomberg Real Yield. (Begin, 08/08/25) Hiatus starts 21 Nov. '25
    14 Nov '25:
    Can't talk for several days, but I can type.
    Scarlet Fu seems to have taken over as full-time host. It pleases me.
    So, Data drought due to shutdown. ORK! The data we have is stale, some private (vs. gummint) data is being published. Can we trust gummint data under the current regime, anyhow? When data is again collected and published by gummint, it will be slow, incremental. Some October stats will just be skipped, forgotten, left to be forgotten. THERE'S leadership! (Meanwhile Dept. Ag. is requiring all food stamp recipients to RE-APPLY. Because full-time workers who can't make a living need the help, and of course, we must make things as difficult as possible for them all. Just let the billionaires coast on their tax cuts, eh?)
    Odds of a Dec. rate cut are mixed, about 50/50 according to the Talking Heads. There has been a bunch of market volatility in the face of the lack of data. The information-picture will be cloudy for months to come. (Fickle decisions [and suggestions] by the Orange regime.)
    So, although lower rates are expected later into '26, it's a dicey situation for the several months to come, including the end of '25. Some FED Governors are sounding skeptical about rate cuts.
    Credit Caution. Orange 50-year mortgages? Well... Michael Burry was able to get some of the Banksters to CREATE an instrument by which he could short the housing market... For a 50-year (and mortgage portability) to work, there will need to be new financial infrastructure invented. (Watch out for THAT monstrosity!) One of the guests asserted that "only time" will fix the affordability issue. Not a very hands-on strategy.
    Belly of the curve seems a good place to be. And with credit jitters in Junk, it may very well be prudent to stick to I.G. bonds. Yet, Junk issuance has reached $1.5TRILLION in 2025, highest since 2020.
    Yes, we are in a K-shaped economy. I'm luckier than most, yet my portfolio is range bound in 2025. Stinky poopy.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-11-14/real-yield-11-14-2025-video
  • The K-Shaped Economy
     Key Points
    Wages for the top 25% of the U.S. workforce are rising by 4.6% annually,
    while the lowest quarter sees only 3.6% annual gains.
    Financial stress is increasing for lower-income households,
    with 29% living paycheck to paycheck and a record 6.7% of subprime auto loans delinquent.
    The economy’s growth is increasingly reliant on affluent households,
    as lower-income consumers face rising costs and reduced spending capacity.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/what-is-the-k-shaped-economy-and-why-is-it-a-problem/ar-AA1QpHuF
  • FPA Queens Road Value ETF in registration
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/924727/000110465925110267/tm2530350d1_485apos.htm
    Excerpt from filing:
    The Fund will acquire the assets and liabilities of the FPA Queens Road Value Fund (the “Predecessor Fund”), a series of Investment Managers Series Trust III, through the reorganization of the Predecessor Fund into the Fund, which is expected to occur on [ ], 2026 (the “Reorganization”). As a result of the Reorganization, the Fund will be the accounting and performance successor of the Predecessor Fund.
    The returns presented for the periods prior to July 28, 2023, reflect the performance of the FPA Queens Road Value Fund (the “Value Fund”), which was a series of Bragg Capital Trust and reorganized into the Predecessor Fund on July 28, 2023. As a result of this reorganization, the Predecessor Fund adopted the accounting and performance history of the Value Fund.
  • Funds in Morningstar’s 401(k)
    To force typewriter-like WYSIWYG formatting, surround the text with <PRE> and </PRE>. Then whitespace won't collapse and tabs will be treated as tabs. The only trick needed is to get the right number of tabs (or whitespaces) in each spot so things space out correctly.
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    In the end, the data is more important than the presentation. (Thank you for the numbers.) With basically just a fund name and a dollar amount on each line, the table was already readable.
    		Fund			   Value
    Vanguard Institutional Index $221,250,199
    Vanguard Developed Markets Index Instl $83,722,284
    Vanguard Total Bond Market Index $71,995,591
    Vanguard Small Cap Index Instl $70,044,449
    Personal Choice Retirement $67,962,323
    Harbor Capital Appreciation $44,636,465
    Primecap Odyssey Aggr Growth $36,342,335
    Vanguard FTSE Social Index $32,061,017
    Vanguard Emrg Mkts Index Adm $30,301,024
    Vanguard Selected Value $28,262,985
    Washington Mutual Fund R6 $27,567,856
    American Funds New World R6 $26,086,153
    Dodge & Cox International Stock $25,466,788
    Pimco Total Return Fund Cl A $24,645,158
    Oakmark Select Investor $21,042,844
    Vanguard Intl Growth Admiral $20,605,184
    PIMCO Real Return Fund Instl $20,450,560
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2040 $18,932,495
    T. Rowe Price Stable Value Com Trust A $18,533,530
    Vanguard Real Estate Inx Instl $17,500,289
    Dodge & Cox Global Bond Fund $17,214,377
    Royce Special Equity Svc $13,314,096
    PIMCO Commodity Real Ret Instl $11,423,605
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2050 $11,124,375
    Vanguard Fed Money Market Fund $9,010,788
    T Rowe Price High Yield $7,981,306
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2060 $7,417,153
    Loomis Sayles Bond Fund $7,338,851
    Wasatch Small Cap Growth Fund $6,467,915
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2030 $5,930,256
    Invesco Developing Markets R5 $4,460,437
    DFA International Small Company $4,349,683
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2045 $1,642,105
    Vanguard Target Retmt Income $1,235,913
    Personal Choice Retirement 2 $1,169,885
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2035 $806,421
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2020 $610,899
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2055 $169,980
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2070 $47,081
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2065 $29,131
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2025 $15,360
    * Cash Cash $3,235
  • Funds in Morningstar’s 401(k)
    in case you were wondering how the 401k was currently allocated:
    Fund Value
    Vanguard Institutional Index $221,250,199
    Vanguard Developed Markets Index Instl $83,722,284
    Vanguard Total Bond Market Index $71,995,591
    Vanguard Small Cap Index Instl $70,044,449
    Personal Choice Retirement $67,962,323
    Harbor Capital Appreciation $44,636,465
    Primecap Odyssey Aggr Growth $36,342,335
    Vanguard FTSE Social Index $32,061,017
    Vanguard Emrg Mkts Index Adm $30,301,024
    Vanguard Selected Value $28,262,985
    Washington Mutual Fund R6 $27,567,856
    American Funds New World R6 $26,086,153
    Dodge & Cox International Stock $25,466,788
    Pimco Total Return Fund Cl A $24,645,158
    Oakmark Select Investor $21,042,844
    Vanguard Intl Growth Admiral $20,605,184
    PIMCO Real Return Fund Instl $20,450,560
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2040 $18,932,495
    T. Rowe Price Stable Value Com Trust A $18,533,530
    Vanguard Real Estate Inx Instl $17,500,289
    Dodge & Cox Global Bond Fund $17,214,377
    Royce Special Equity Svc $13,314,096
    PIMCO Commodity Real Ret Instl $11,423,605
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2050 $11,124,375
    Vanguard Fed Money Market Fund $9,010,788
    T Rowe Price High Yield $7,981,306
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2060 $7,417,153
    Loomis Sayles Bond Fund $7,338,851
    Wasatch Small Cap Growth Fund $6,467,915
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2030 $5,930,256
    Invesco Developing Markets R5 $4,460,437
    DFA International Small Company $4,349,683
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2045 $1,642,105
    Vanguard Target Retmt Income $1,235,913
    Personal Choice Retirement 2 $1,169,885
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2035 $806,421
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2020 $610,899
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2055 $169,980
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2070 $47,081
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2065 $29,131
    Vanguard Target Retiremnt 2025 $15,360
    * Cash Cash $3,235
  • Funds in Morningstar’s 401(k)
    "Interesting though, in that while some financial advisors insist that no one
    should have more than a small number of funds, the M* 401k has quite a few."

    Morningstar's 401(k) lineup includes Vanguard's entire Target Retirement suite.
    Mr. Kinnel mentioned that the following funds are also available:
    American Funds Washington Mutual
    Dodge & Cox International Stock
    Harbor Capital Appreciation
    Oakmark Select
    Vanguard Developed Markets Index
    Vanguard FTSE Social Index
    Vanguard Institutional Index
    Vanguard International Growth
    DFA International Small Company
    Primecap Odyssey Aggressive Growth
    Royce Small-Cap Special Equity
    Vanguard Selected Value
    Vanguard Small-Cap Index
    Wasatch Small Cap Growth
    American Funds New World
    Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index
    Invesco Developing Markets
    Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index
    Pimco Commodity Real Return Strategy
    Vanguard Real Estate Index
    Dodge & Cox Global Bond
    Pimco Total Return
    T. Rowe Price High Yield
    Loomis Sayles Bond
    Vanguard Total Bond Market Index
    It does seem that some funds could be removed to streamline the lineup without adverse affects.
    Here are a few quick examples off the top of my head.
    Remove either Vanguard FTSE Social Index or Vanguard Institutional Index since both funds are similar.
    American Funds New World is not a pure-play EM fund — some of its developed market holdings
    will also be found in the three large-cap international funds available. Remove it.
    REITs have provided scant diversification for U.S. equities since the turn of the century.
    Vanguard Real Estate Index is therefore of limited use and can be removed.
  • American Beacon AHL Multi-Alternatives Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/809593/000113322825012021/abamaf-efp19173_497.htm
    497 1 abamaf-efp19173_497.htm AMERICAN BEACON AHL MULTI-ALTERNATIVES FUND - 497
    American Beacon AHL Multi-Alternatives Fund
    Supplement dated November 12, 2025, to the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information
    each dated May 1, 2025, as previously amended or supplemented
    The Board of Trustees of American Beacon Funds has approved a plan to liquidate and terminate the American Beacon AHL Multi-Alternatives Fund (the “Fund”) on or about December 30, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”), based on the recommendation of American Beacon Advisors, Inc., the Fund’s investment manager.
    In anticipation of the liquidation, effective immediately, the Fund is closed to new shareholders. In addition, in anticipation of and in preparation for the liquidation of the Fund, AHL Partners LLP, the sub-advisor to the Fund, may need to increase the portion of the Fund's assets held in cash and similar instruments in order to pay for the Fund’s expenses and to meet redemption requests. The Fund may no longer be pursuing its investment objective during this transition. On or about the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute cash pro rata to all remaining shareholders. These shareholder distributions may be taxable events. Thereafter, the Fund will terminate.
    The Fund will be liquidated on or about December 30, 2025. Liquidation proceeds will be delivered in accordance with the existing instructions for your account. No action is needed on your part.
    Please note that you may be eligible to exchange your shares of the Fund at net asset value per share at any time prior to the Liquidation Date for shares of the same share class of another American Beacon Fund under certain limited circumstances. You also may redeem your shares of the Fund at any time prior to the Liquidation Date. No sales charges, redemption fees or termination fees will be imposed in connection with such exchanges and redemptions. In general, exchanges and redemptions are taxable events for shareholders.
    In connection with its liquidation, the Fund may declare distributions of its net investment income and net capital gains in advance of its Liquidation Date, which may be taxable to shareholders. You should consult your tax adviser to discuss the Fund’s liquidation and determine its tax consequences.
    For more information, please contact us at 1-800-658-5811, Option 1. If you purchased shares of the Fund through your financial intermediary, please contact your broker-dealer or other financial intermediary for further details.
    ****************************************************************************
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    AHLMA-11122025
  • Overweight Tech or Financial Services?
    Were I to start from scratch or advise a new investor on the original question, I would go with CGBL, the Capital Group’s fairly new global balanced ETF. I think the fund has adequate exposure to growth sectors and sensible FI exposure. I’m impressed with the team approach and the long-term records of American Funds to be comfortable with a new vehicle. Whether or not there’s enough tech or financial, that’s the managers’ job and they are a lot smarter than most individual investors.
  • Overweight Tech or Financial Services?
    Carl Kaufman of Osterweis Strategic Income, OSTIX, is more cautious on BBB rated bonds. The fund holds over 10% in cash, a historical high. Excerpt from 4th quarter outlook:
    For fixed income investors, the AI-themed names are a cohort that exists largely outside our investment purview (although we did have one very successful investment in an AI-related convertible, which we exited at the end of 2024). Most of the AI-themed names are private, VC-owned cash burners that are not prime candidates for borrowing in the credit markets. The few that have come to market to borrow have very dubious credit profiles and have asked lenders to invest largely based on their future prospects. This is a sensible arrangement for equity holders, who receive unlimited upside in exchange for the risk they take, but for bondholders it is far less appealing, as their upside is limited to the coupon they receive while the risk is the same. We are, however, carefully monitoring this because we believe it is an apt barometer for broad investor sentiment, which is unabashedly risk-on.
    The hyperscalers are budgeting hundreds of billions of dollars of CapEx to build data centers, which they hope will power a massive expansion of AI adoption in the years ahead. The numbers are astonishing, and the hype and activity around AI reminds us of the excitement around all things dot-com and dark fiber in the 1990s. The birth of the internet was a society-changing phenomenon, and AI could prove to be the same. However, it is unlikely that AI adoption will pan out exactly as planned. Given the lofty valuations ascribed to these early-stage, unproven companies, any deviation from the expected adoption rate and the ensuing revenue forecasts (many of which are still years away) could trigger at least a tremor, and possibly a much larger quake as winners and losers are parsed by the market. Stay tuned.
    https://osterweis.com/outlooks/Strategic_Income_Outlook_Q4
    OSTIX has lower drawdowns than typical junk bond funds. He tends to stay in higher quality end of junk bonds that provides more consistent total return.
    With respect to Global Wellington and Global Wellesley funds, they share the same bond manager, Loren Moran. Moran tends to hold higher % of long bond for higher yield. This hurt them when the FED hiked rate in 2022. Now the FED is reversing the rate cycle that benefit the long bonds. Something to bear in mind of Wellington funds. On the equity side, they share the same manager but the goals are slightly different that reflect in the selector selection. Global Wellington focuses more on the capital appreciation side while Global Wellesley focus on dividend and value oriented stocks. I own Global Wellington but will buy Wellesley.
    @sma3, agree with point on the Active Shares. The passive asset allocation funds are often used as benchmark to other asset allocation funds. I still prefer active management.
  • Overweight Tech or Financial Services?
    @larryB At my stage of investing, risk=volatility. Obviously, nobody can see the future but if you look at a chart of the 2 sectors over the past 5 years, you may have your answer. Are you willing to bet that the next 5 years will be much different? While gains have been greater in tech, chances of a loss were also greater.
    Perhaps you could share the names of the 2 funds you are considering.
  • 2025 estimated capital gains estimates
    Vanguard's preliminary capital gains estimates as of October 31.
    Vanguard plans to provide final estimates for all funds on December 9.
    https://advisors.vanguard.com/tax-center/year-end-distributions
  • Overweight Tech or Financial Services?
    Hi @larryB
    For the search words: best fund with mix of tech and financial services
    A quasi AI answer. Two sections. This first below doesn't include the word 'global', the second section does.
    Regards,
    Catch
    --- Funds that provide exposure to both technology and financial services generally fall under the Fintech (Financial Technology) thematic category. These funds invest in companies leveraging technology to transform financial services like payments, banking, and investing.
    Here are some of the best-known and top-performing Fintech ETFs:
    Top Fintech Funds
    Fund Name Ticker Description
    ARK Fintech Innovation ETF ARKF An actively managed ETF that invests in companies at the forefront of innovation in the fintech space, with holdings like Block, PayPal, and Coinbase. It is known for its focus on disruptive innovation and has shown strong returns over a three-year period despite high volatility.
    Global X FinTech ETF FINX This fund seeks to invest in companies using technology to help banks and other financial firms digitize their operations. It offers broad exposure to companies involved in payment processing, peer-to-peer lending, and digital banking globally.
    Amplify Digital Payments ETF IPAY A "pure-play" on the digital and mobile payments industry, this ETF includes traditional credit card companies like Visa and Mastercard, as well as emerging consumer payment companies like PayPal and Block.
    iShares FinTech Active ETF BPAY This actively managed fund invests in a range of innovative companies, including payment processors and traditional financial institutions adopting new technologies.
    Capital Link Global Fintech Leaders ETF KOIN This fund invests in a mix of traditional tech companies (e.g., Microsoft, Oracle) that provide the underlying technology for financial firms, and companies that use fintech internally.
    Key Considerations
    Thematic Focus: These funds are thematic and thus more concentrated than broad market or even single-sector funds. They are designed to capture growth in the intersection of two dynamic sectors.
    Risk Profile: Fintech funds can be volatile due to the nature of technology and the evolving regulatory landscape of the financial sector. The performance has been mixed across different funds and time periods.
    Active vs. Passive: Some, like ARKF and BPAY, are actively managed, relying on management expertise to pick stocks. Others like FINX are index funds, aiming to track a specific index.
    Before investing, consider your risk tolerance and investment objectives, and review the specific holdings and expense ratios of each fund
    --- USING THE WORD 'GLOBAL'
    Finding a single "best" fund is difficult as performance and suitability depend on market conditions and individual risk tolerance. However, several global funds invest significantly in both technology and financial services, offering exposure to both sectors.
    Funds with a mix of Technology and Financial Services
    Funds that explicitly target a blend of technology and financial services are often called "fintech" funds. These funds focus on the intersection of the two sectors.
    ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF): This active ETF invests in companies that focus on disruptive innovation in the financial services sector, which inherently includes a large technology component. It has shown strong long-term performance (50.09% three-year total return) but comes with high volatility.
    Global X FinTech ETF (FINX): This ETF offers exposure to companies providing financial technology products and services.
    Capital Link Global Fintech Leaders ETF (KOIN): This fund divides its investments into two groups: traditional financial companies adopting new technology and technology firms providing the code/hardware for fintech systems. Its top holdings include a mix of large tech companies like Microsoft and financial service infrastructure providers.
    General Global Technology Funds with Diversification
    Many general global technology funds include financial technology companies as part of their diversified technology holdings. These often have strong long-term performance and high ratings.
    Janus Henderson Global Technology And Innovation Fund (JNGTX, JGLTX): This highly-rated fund invests in domestic and foreign companies that benefit from technological advances. It has strong three-year annualized returns (32.4%) and is a good option for global technology exposure.
    T. Rowe Price Global Technology Fund (PRGTX): This fund seeks long-term capital growth by investing globally in technology companies. It has a reasonable expense ratio and good performance.
    Putnam Global Technology Fund (PGTAX): Another global fund focused on capital appreciation through investments in large and mid-size companies in the technology sector.
    Important Considerations
    Global vs. US Focus: Most top-performing, large-asset tech funds are heavily US-focused (e.g., Vanguard Information Technology ETF, FTEC, XLK), often with over 60% of assets in the top few large-cap tech stocks like Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft. Funds with a true "global" mandate will have more exposure to international markets.
    Risk: Sector-specific funds, especially in high-growth areas like technology and fintech, can be more volatile than a broadly diversified global index fund.
    Expense Ratios: ETFs generally have lower expense ratios than actively managed mutual funds, which can impact long-term returns.
    It is recommended to evaluate the specific holdings, risk profiles, and expense ratios of these funds to determine which best fits your investment goals.
  • Overweight Tech or Financial Services?
    I have been searching for a global balanced fund to be the single investment for our house. Not because messing around with funds isn’t a great sport but I might depart the scene or lose my mind. I have two candidates, one overweights financial services and the other tech. What would you go with? My final criteria is lower drawdown as opposed to max gains. Thanks for your thoughts.
  • Catastrophe Bond Funds
    @Junkster
    Good primer, tks. Agree that the recent outsized gains cannot continue. However I still expect the spread on these over MM acceptable enough to be worth the risk. But just like you, I am keeping a close watch.
  • Catastrophe Bond Funds
    https://www.artemis.bm/news/catastrophe-bond-ucits-fund-returns-accelerate-to-8-88-after-october/
    The above link has a chart of the returns for the CAT bond index going back to 2011. The past three years were by far the best and all because it was a “hard” pricing market going forward from Hurricaine Ian in 2022. Now all we are hearing about is the ‘soft” pricing market for 2026. I didn’t think we would see double digit returns in 2025. There is a seasonality in CAT because you are paid for the risk of holding through hurricane season. As those who have held also know, Fridays are when they are priced and there have been outsized gains during the year on Fridays especially going into and in Hurricaine season. I would think anyone just getting into CAT have missed the boat and gains going forward will be more like the gains in the above chart ex the past three years, The momentum has already slowed recently. But I could be wrong because of the still outsized yields on these funds They are a good diversifier and not subject to the whims of the stock and bond market. I hold some CBYYX but it is not a huge position and if the momentum continues to abate will sell.
  • US airlines cancel flights after aviation agency directive to cut air traffic
    2026 can't come fast enough, if the election recently is any indicator.
    step by step, things are going from worse to worst. it's not inevitable, but likely, due to repugnant party hubris.
    no capital letters right now. cut my thumb. check out doctor snowball's monthly letter. vital messages.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Sold my TDS preferreds to lock in some TLH offsetting on some large gains this year.
    May sell other paper-loss holdings going into year-end too since PRWCX looks to be delivering another large payout as well.

    @rforno. So, you did have "TDS", but got over it? lol
    Don't tell FD....
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Sold my TDS preferreds to lock in some TLH offsetting on some large gains this year.
    May sell other paper-loss holdings going into year-end too since PRWCX looks to be delivering another large payout as well.
    @rforno. So, you did have "TDS", but got over it? lol
  • Tesla vote on Thursday
    I was pleased to note on the M* ownership tab that Fido was not among the top 20 "institutional" owners of Tesla.
    FMR is #10 on the list of major institutional owners.
    Goede Capital, spun off from Fidelity and the firm sub-advising Fidelity's index funds, is #4.
    The largest shareholder is not an institution. It is Musk.
    Thank you for the details. I'm always open to correction. I didn't recognize either of those names. I can't say that I'm surprised that Fido is higher on the list than I discerned.
    The funny thing--to me anyway--is that when I think of institutions, I think about prisons, asylums, libraries, hospitals, universities, art museums, and other entities with some exposure, or responsibility, to something beyond commerce and gearing.