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The K-Shaped Economy

edited November 14 in Other Investing
 Key Points

Wages for the top 25% of the U.S. workforce are rising by 4.6% annually,
while the lowest quarter sees only 3.6% annual gains.

Financial stress is increasing for lower-income households,
with 29% living paycheck to paycheck and a record 6.7% of subprime auto loans delinquent.

The economy’s growth is increasingly reliant on affluent households,
as lower-income consumers face rising costs and reduced spending capacity.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/what-is-the-k-shaped-economy-and-why-is-it-a-problem/ar-AA1QpHuF

Comments

  • Taken from a similar thread:

    https://www.morningbrew.com/stories/2025/11/03/evidence-of-k-shaped-economy-popping-up-everywhere

    -The affluent doing very well along with the booming stock market and the appreciation of their homes in the inventory-crunched real estate market.

    -Nearly everyone else faltering due to a shaky job market, high interest rates, and/or inflation.

    Auto: In September, the cost of a new vehicle passed the $50,000 mark for the first time, according to Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book. And repossession volume passing through Manheim, the auction group owned by Cox, was up 12% through the end of September on an annualized basis, according to the Wall Street Journal’s deep-dive into the rise of auto repos.

    Airlines: Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian said that sales of premium seats would exceed those of coach seats for at least one or two quarters in 2026.

    Food & bev: Coca-Cola CEO James Quincey told CNBC that sales of its premium brands, like Smartwater, Topo Chico, and Fairlife, are juicing the company’s sales, while Coke demand is up at dollar stores, as well as at amusement parks frequented by higher spenders.

    Consumer goods: Apple grew by double digits last quarter, thanks to strong sales of the $799 iPhone 17. And while economist Leo Feler told Marketplace that “everyone has kept buying health and personal care items,” how and when they buy them has changed. Wealthier shoppers are making hauls at Costco, while budget-constrained shoppers use up everything at home before going shopping.

    Zoom out: Economic trends suggest that the gap will widen rather than narrow. Economist Betsey Stevenson of the University of Michigan told Marketplace, “The real risk to a K-shaped economy is social and political instability."
  • edited November 15
    Off topic - But one wonders how the popularity of online gaming of every sort (dice rolls, roulette wheels, sports events) is affecting the finances of these lower income workers? I was briefly addicted on an off-shore site several years before it became legal in the U.S. Wasn’t the $$ so much (probably lost $300 over 2-3 years) but the waste of time being glued to 2 or 3 contests daily that drove me to quit. Some stressed out workers facing higher prices for food, insurance, everything else may see online gambling as a “solution”. Nothing could be further from the truth.But I’m haunted by that possibility.

    Airlines? They are adding more and more first-class seats. On an A-320 /321 there might have been three or 4 first-class rows a few years ago. Now it’s 5 or 6 rows. Rarely did smaller short-haul flights offer first-class. Now most do. But I noticed on one recent flight that the legroom afforded first class flyers had shrunk a bit.

    (Most of my recent flying has been on American.)
  • edited November 15
    Yes, the recent busts of basketball and baseball players shows how bad it could get. They lost/made peanuts (to them) but probably cost them their million dollar careers. Almost every commercial on ESPN is gambling related. You can bet on EVERYTHING. I bet $100 the 2nd basemen ties his shoe at the start of the third inning. What could go wrong?
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