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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    Innovator recently issued "AAPR" which is capped at 18% gains, and supposedly offers 100% "buffer" protection against losses (for 2 years, until April 2026).
    There are a lot buffer funds flooding the market.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @MikeM: from what I can see, CGBL is about 30% FI, with another Capital Group ETF, CGCP as the only holding in that asset class. The rest of the fund appears to be all individual stocks. CGCP is labeled a core plus income fund. I don't know how RLGBX invests in FI.
    I have Washington Mutual in my TIAA account and I use CGGR, CGGO, and CGDV in our taxable and Roth accounts. I had previously avoided American Funds because of loads.
  • WZRD - hedge fund trader creates an ETF
    @JD_co
    searching at ETF.com WZRD was mentioned in two interesting articles / lists -
    https://www.etf.com/topics/target-outcome
    https://www.etf.com/topics/income-capital-appreciation
    May be someone can use these lists to take us to the next level research / conversation.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @MikeM,
    Thanks for the info.
    CGBL may be a good option for those who don't have access to RLBGX.
    Edit/Add:
    After reading your post, I did some additional research.
    CGBL has the same general approach as the mutual fund but it's not a clone.
    The mutual fund has four equity managers and a balanced manager who are not named managers on the ETF.
    CGBL has two equity managers who are not named managers on the mutual fund.
    The mutual fund has four managers who build the bond portfolio while the ETF
    leverages Capital Group Core Plus Income ETF (CGCP) for its fixed-income exposure.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/4-new-funds-our-radar-2
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Observant1, just for information in case you didn't know, Capital Group Core Balanced ETF, CGBL, from American funds parent company Capital Group is I believe a clone or at least very similar to RLBGX in stock holdings. In my quest to have mostly balanced funds anchor my portfolio, I've pushed CGBL close to 10% of total... FWIW.
  • Barron's on Funds & Retirement, 4/20/24
    STREETWISE. EUROPE (IEV) has underperformed the US (IVV) for quite a while, but that may be changing, according to JPM. Be selective – AZN, DT, UBS, as there is no point going from the US to expensive European stocks – EADSY, ASML, NVO. Elsewhere, analysts are mixed on the outlooks for TSLA (the 2nd worst SP500 stock that reports on 4/23/24) and GL (the worst SP500 stock that was hit by a negative report from a short-selling firm on 4/11/24).
    FUNDS. There will be opportunities in bond funds when the interest rate decline (in 2024 or 2025).
    Short-Term: VCSH, JPLD, MINT
    Intermediate Core-Plus: BYLD, FBND
    HY: ANGL, BHYAX, CSOAX, FAGIX (18% equity)
    Floating Rate: FLOT (investment-grade), BKLN (junk)
    Muni: MUB
    Individual corporate bonds are also attractive (from JPM, BOA, WFC, C,PNC, USB, etc)
    (Consider this list by Barron’s as a sampling only. There are many more choices in each category, e.g. Treasury FRN USFR in both Short-term/Floating Rate, Fido SPHIX as pure HY, etc.)
    FUNDS. They may be tempting now, but don’t overstay in the MONEY-MARKET funds. Most economists and strategists think that the Fed is done tightening, and its next move(s) will be cut(s), although there are some who think that the Fed may surprise by raising rates. Rate cuts will benefit various credits and equities and it’s best to position ahead for possible fast moves.
    FUNDS. High-quality (moat), growth-value NRAAX (ER 1.06%; no-load/NTF at Fidelity and Schwab) has a concentrated portfolio with reasonable valuations (so, no NVDA, TSLA, or META). Manager HANSON uses a barbell approach for growth and value, and focuses on customer-centric companies. Fund has “sustainability” in its name, but that is considered much more than ESG.
    INCOME. T-Bills ETF BOXX uses options to avoid taxable income and its AUM has grown to $2.3 billion. It uses box-spreads that allow long-term holders to pay only capital gains on sale. There are no income distributions or CG distributions (exploiting ETF’s in-kind transactions). Tax experts doubt that the strategy may withstand IRS and/or SEC scrutiny because, generally, taxes must be paid on imputed income even when not distributed. There are also doubts whether complex options strategies can work in all environments. So, +1 for creativity, 0 for true investor benefits.
    Q&A/Interview. Imaru CASANOVA, VanEck. GOLD-bullion (GLD, GLDM, IAU, OUNZ, etc) has rallied on geopolitical tensions, but gold-miners have lagged (GDX, GDXJ, INIVX, etc). This gold rally isn’t being driven by retail, investment demand, or the ETFs, but by central banks (China, India, Turkey, etc). The Western investors are still on the sidelines but may be drawn in as the gold rally continues to $2,600 and beyond. Gold took off after the Russia-Ukraine war as several countries started diversifying away from dollar (due to the US dollar-diplomacy). The Fed is also near the tail end of monetary tightening. However, lately, the historical correlations among gold, rates and dollar have broken down. Gold-miners are lagging badly, but with their average production costs around $1,400, high gold prices will just flow into their bottom lines (earnings, free cash flows). Young investors seem to prefer cryptos over gold, but she thinks that overall, the gold and crypto investors are different. She suggests core gold-bullion and gold-mining holdings in 5-10% range. (VanEck has products for gold-bullion, gold-mining, Bitcoin, cryptos).
    RETIREMENT. Consider ROTH CONVERSIONS ahead of the expiration in 2025 of the 2018 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Unless extended or replaced by Congress, higher tax brackets will go up in 2026 and beyond. A sweet spot for Conversions is between early retirement (when income may be low) and age 73 when the RMDs kick in. Also take into account the impact of Medicare IRMAA at high income levels. Benefits of Roth Conversions include tax-free withdrawals in retirement (for any purpose), reduced RMDs and less tax burden for heirs.
    EXTRA. Final FIDUCIARY rules for retirement accounts will be released by the DOL soon. Currently, the fees are hidden within the wrap fees or bonuses or commissions and lead to potential conflicts. Critics (IRI, etc) say that the new rules may reduce consumer access to financial advice.
    From open LINK1 LINK2
    For Barron's subscribers https://www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    A new complaint about naked-short-selling filed by DJT.
    "Reports indicate that, as of April 3, 2024, DJT was “by far” “the most expensive U.S. stock to short,” meaning that brokers have a significant financial incentive to lend non-existent shares.2 Data made available to us indicate that just four market participants have been responsible for over 60% of the extraordinary volume of DJT shares traded: Citadel Securities, VIRTU Americas, G1 Execution Services, and Jane Street Capital."
    https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001849635/000114036124020575/ny20026576x6_8k.htm
    Basically, to short a stock, one must borrow it first. Naked-short-selling means to short a stock without borrowing it first. It has been banned in the US since the GFC - before, there were some permissible situations by broker-dealers.
  • CD
    I don't worry about government m-mkt funds with $1 NAV. Without the fear of gates, retail-prime m-mkt funds with $1 NAV will be fine too.
    For the most part, I agree with Yogi. My qualification is that liquidity is somewhat in the mind of the beholder. In my mind, I wasn't particularly concerned about the theoretical possibility of gates, just as I am not concerned about the current theoretical seven day notice requirement to get money out of a bank savings account or the current theoretical seven days it could take a MMF to deliver cash upon share redemption (see any MMF prospectus).
    Fidelity didn't seem to be concerned about gates when they existed. At Fidelity, you can keep all your cash in a "non-core" prime MMF and Fidelity will consider that the same as cash for all purposes. That is, you can use it to settle trades, write checks, etc. I asked Fidelity what it would do if I made a trade on Mon, and before settlement on Wed my prime fund implemented a gate (so settlement cash wouldn't be available on Wed). Fidelity's honest response was "we don't know".
    OTOH, the possibility of redemption fees on MMFs still exists, though in a different form than before. "non-government money market funds must impose a discretionary liquidity fee if the fund’s board (or its delegate) determines that a fee is in the best interest of the fund." (I leave it to readers to figure out what a mandatory discretionary fee is.) This just became effective April 2.
    https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/proxy/content?literatureURL=/9910956.PDF
    https://www.sec.gov/files/33-11211-fact-sheet.pdf
    Personally, I suspect I may be more likely to go down in a Boeing plane than to lose money in a MMF, though that's just a gut reaction.
  • The MOVE Index - Please Share your Insight
    I checked it years ago and I could not prove it helped me and why I stopped following it, my link includes what have worked for me very well...but...I looked again and now I see that MOVE > 110 has a nice correlation to high volatility in bonds and in most cases typical high-rated bonds don't do well.
    On 3-2-2020 it was at 125 = sell everything = correct. The week before it was already over 110.
    End of 02/2022 it was over 130 = sell and continue to get higher with some lower volatility.
    Also at the end of 2007, it was over 130 and higher in 2008.
    OK, I was wrong.
    (link)
    Key Takeaways
    The bond market tends to signal significant changes ahead of the equity market
    MOVE is 'the VIX for Bonds, by having a history of solid signals regarding the sentiment of the bond market
    MOVE can be used in conjunction with the VIX (explained below) to define general market risk and investor sentiment
  • IRS Waiver of Annual RMD for Inherited Retirement Accounts
    To be clear here (somewhat ironic choice of words), the IRS is rewarding failure to read the rules by waiving a rule for another year.
    Some individuals who are owners of inherited IRAs ... [misunderstood] the new 10-year rule. ... Specifically, [they] expected that the [new] 10-year rule would operate like the [old] 5-year rule. [They though that] there would not be any RMD due for a calendar year until the last year of the 5- or 10-year period following the ... death of the eligible ... beneficiary. ...
    [B]eneficiaries of individuals who died in 2020 explained that they did not take an RMD in 2021 and were unsure of whether they would be required to take an RMD in 2022. [They] asserted that ... the Treasury Department and the IRS should provide transition relief for failure to take distributions that are RMDs due in 2021 or 2022
    https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-24-35.pdf
    Fair enough. To avoid penalizing beneficiaries due to initial confusion about the new rule, the IRS provided a two year period where penalties were waived.
    Apparently two years weren't enough for some taxpayers. The IRS extended the waiver for 2023, and now again for 2024. As near as I can see, there was no additional rationale given beyond that used for the initial transition waiver.
    Note that the same rules apply to inherited employer-sponsored plans (401(k)s, 403(b)s).
  • Jamie Dimon (JPM) Looking for Future Rate Storms
    Interesting that Jamie Dimon's concerns have been quoted widely, but his wide rate range of 2-8% is skipped in these quotes. All he may be trying to say that as the largest bank in the US (TBTF, SIFI, etc; also largest globally by market-cap but not by assets), he is prepared for all eventualities.
    BTW, Treasury volatility is indicated by MOVE (it's like VIX for bonds) and it's now 121; recent 52-wk high was 148 in 10/2022; all-time low was 37 in 09/2020.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^MOVE
  • Jamie Dimon (JPM) Looking for Future Rate Storms
    Jamie Dimon's annual letter, pg 20,
    "Therefore, we are prepared for a very broad range of interest rates, from 2% to 8% or even more, with equally wide-ranging economic outcomes — from strong economic growth with moderate inflation (in this case, higher interest rates would result from higher demand for capital) to a recession with inflation; i.e., stagflation. Economically, the worst-case scenario would be stagflation, which would not only come with higher interest rates but also with higher credit losses, lower business volumes and more difficult markets. Under these many different scenarios, our company would continue to perform at least okay. Importantly, being prepared means we can continue to help our clients no matter what the future portends. "
    https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/ceo-letter-to-shareholders-2023.pdf
  • Angel Oak Financials Income Impact Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1612930/000089418924002314/angeloakliquidationsupplem.htm
    497 1 angeloakliquidationsupplem.htm ANGEL OAK FINANCIALS INCOME IMPACT FUND 497E
    Filed Pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    Registration No. 333-197427; 811-22980
    ANGEL OAK FINANCIALS INCOME IMPACT FUND
    Class A | Class C | Institutional Class
    a series of Angel Oak Funds Trust
    Supplement to the Prospectus, Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) and Summary Prospectus, each dated May 31, 2023, as supplemented to date
    April 12, 2024
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Prospectus, SAI and Summary Prospectus, and should be read in conjunction with the Prospectus, SAI and Summary Prospectus.
    At a meeting held on April 10, 2024, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Angel Oak Funds Trust determined that it was in the best interests of the shareholders of the Angel Oak Financials Income Impact Fund (the “Fund”) to liquidate the Fund and approved the liquidation of the Fund pursuant to a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”).
    Accordingly, effective on or about April 12, 2024, shares of the Fund will no longer be available for purchase. All shares of the Fund will be liquidated in accordance with the Plan on or about May 24, 2024 (the “Liquidation Date”).
    On or about the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute pro rata to the Fund’s shareholders of record as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date all of the remaining assets of the Fund in cash, after paying, or setting aside the amount to pay, any liabilities. At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem their shares of the Fund and receive the net asset value thereof in cash or in‑kind, as provided in the Fund’s Prospectus. Shareholders may also exchange their shares for shares of the same class of another Angel Oak mutual fund at net asset value without imposition of a sales load. If shareholders of Class C Shares redeem their shares, no contingent deferred sales charge will be imposed on those redemptions.
    As soon as practicable after the date of this supplement, the Fund will wind up its business and affairs, and the Fund will cease investing its assets in accordance with its stated investment strategies and policies. On or before the Liquidation Date, all portfolio holdings of the Fund will be converted to cash or cash equivalents. As a result, the Fund will not be able to achieve its investment objective and will deviate from its investment strategies and policies during the period between the date of this supplement and the Liquidation Date.
    If a shareholder remains invested in the Fund as of the Liquidation Date, the shareholder’s shares will be redeemed automatically, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, at net asset value per share as of the Liquidation Date. Redemption of shares by a shareholder as part of a liquidation generally will be considered a taxable event. Prior to the liquidation, the Fund may make distributions of income and capital gains. You should consult your tax advisor for information regarding all tax consequences applicable to your investment in the Fund. Shareholders who own Fund shares in a tax deferred account, such as an individual retirement account, should consult their tax advisors regarding the tax consequences applicable to the reinvestment of the proceeds of the liquidating distribution.
    Shareholders may redeem all or a portion of their shares of the Fund before the Liquidation Date, and as a result the Fund and its remaining shareholders may experience adverse effects. These shareholder redemptions may also negatively impact the Fund’s net asset value per share.
    Please retain this Supplement with your Prospectus, SAI and Summary Prospectus for future reference.
  • DCM/INNOVA High Equity Income Innovation Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1295908/000158064224002124/dcm-innova_497.htm
    497 1 dcm-innova_497.htm 497
    DCM/INNOVA HIGH EQUITY INCOME INNOVATION FUND
    A Series of Centaur Mutual Funds Trust
    Supplement dated April 11, 2024, to the Summary Prospectus, Statutory Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information, each dated February 28, 2024
    Effective immediately, the DCM/INNOVA High Equity Income Innovation Fund (the “Fund”), a series of Centaur Mutual Funds Trust (the “Trust”), has terminated the public offering of its shares and will discontinue its operations effective May 24, 2024. Shares of the Fund are no longer available for purchase and, at the close of business on May 24, 2024, all outstanding shares of the Fund will be redeemed at net asset value (the “Transaction”).
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust (the “Board”), at the recommendation of the Fund’s investment advisor, DCM Advisors, LLC (the “Adviser”), determined and approved by Written Consent of the Board on April 10, 2024 (the “Written Consent”), to discontinue the Fund’s operations based on, among other factors, the Advisor’s belief that it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders to discontinue the Fund’s operations. Through the date of the Transaction, the Advisor will continue to waive investment advisory fees and reimburse expenses of the Fund, if necessary, in order to maintain the Fund at its current expense limit, as specified in the Fund’s Prospectus.
    Through the Written Consent, the Board directed that: (i) all of the Fund’s portfolio securities be liquidated in an orderly manner not later than May 24, 2024; and (ii) all outstanding shareholder accounts on May 24, 2024, be closed and the proceeds of each account be sent to the shareholder’s address of record or to such other address as directed by the shareholder, including special instructions that may be needed for Individual Retirement Accounts (“IRAs”) and qualified pension and profit sharing accounts. As a result of the Transaction, the Fund’s portfolio holdings will be reduced to cash or cash equivalent securities. Accordingly, going forward, shareholders should not expect the Fund to achieve its stated investment objectives. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional Fund shares, unless you have requested payment in cash.
    Shareholders may continue to freely redeem their shares on each business day prior to the Transaction. Procedures for redeeming your account, including reinvested distributions, are contained in the section “Redeeming Your Shares” in the Fund’s Prospectus. Any shareholders that have not redeemed their shares of the Fund prior to May 24, 2024, will have their shares automatically redeemed as of that date, with proceeds being sent to the address of record. If your Fund shares were purchased through a broker-dealer or other financial intermediary and are held in a brokerage or other investment account, redemption proceeds may be forwarded by the Fund directly to the broker-dealer or other financial intermediary for deposit into your brokerage or other investment account.
    The Transaction will be considered for tax purposes a sale of Fund shares by shareholders, and shareholders should consult with their own tax advisors to ensure its proper treatment on their income tax returns.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    Shareholders invested through an IRA or other tax-deferred account should consult the rules regarding the reinvestment of these assets. In order to avoid a potential tax issue, shareholders generally have 60 days from the date that proceeds are received to re-invest or “rollover” the proceeds in another IRA or qualified retirement account; otherwise the proceeds may be required to be included in the shareholder’s taxable income for the current tax year.
    If you have any questions regarding the Fund, please call 1-888-484-5766.
    Investors Should Retain this Supplement for Future Reference
  • TBO private board - respond to this thread to apply for access to the board
    Hi all, I'm just checking in to verify if this is the private group page for those that were affected by the TBO Capital Group scam? Thank you!
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Started small DHAMX position - 10 years up, 2 down (but both small losses). Solid returns.
    The Fund may employ hedges and other capital protective strategies when deemed appropriate and may try to enhance returns by writing (selling) out of the money call options on stocks held.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Along with MRFOX, my new Schwab Employer sponsored brokerage account allowed for TRAIX (TRowe Price Capital Appreciation) purchase - I could not believe that the transaction went through. Also bought a spot of MAFAX.
    Schwab has some good mutual fund offerings, along with low mins. Makes Fido look like a dog.
    Do you by any chance have an advisory account with Schwab?
  • MRFOX speaks!
    Original post can be found here: https://marshfieldfunds.com/commentary/
    ******************************************************************************************************************************
    Marshfield Concentrated Opportunity Fund (MRFOX)
    Market Commentary For March 2024
    [Commentary Fox]
    The market surged this quarter and, somewhat uncharacteristically for such a breathless sprint (especially one fueled principally by tech), our stocks outpaced it. While we have confidence in our companies and their shares’ ability to outperform the S&P 500 over time, we could never have predicted the strong performance we saw this quarter. Nor, frankly, could we have foreseen the market’s robust upswing in a world so beset with uncertainties. Ultimately, the timing of such bursts of performance is both impossible to anticipate or even to understand. When it happens for us, though, we give thanks to the rigors of our process and discipline that keep us on the straight and narrow no matter how the market chooses to behave.
    Therefore, while ever obedient to the higher power of our philosophy, we remain unrepentant agnostics when it comes to the future trajectory of the stock market in general and individual names in particular. The fact that the S & P 500 is weighted according to the market cap of its constituent companies only serves to reinforce that resolve, especially while “as goes Nvidia so goes the index” is now apparently the rule of the day. This is nothing particularly new; investors worshipping at the altar of the reigning FOMO darlings have always had outsized influence over the direction of the market—at least in the short-to-medium term. But as we’ve seen time and again, many a false god has been praised to the heavens only to have its feet of clay revealed in due time.
    That does not mean, though, that we are without religion when it comes to embracing the information the market can and does provide us. Indeed, the faith we place in the market’s efficiency in aggregating individual views as to what a company’s stock is worth each day is valuable treasure; while stock prices are not always correct in how they reflect underlying value, they are unassailably right in describing how investors view those stocks each day. It’s our job to use that information by, as appropriate, buying, selling, or holding. So long as a stock’s price is, over time, tethered—even loosely—to its true value, our ability to wait for the right moment to engage in advantageous trades turns out to be our greatest blessing. Who cares what the market might be about to do—race higher, skid lower, coast—so long as we have a sound read of intrinsic value against which we can measure, on any given day, whether our chosen stock is priced too low, too high, or more or less right on the nose?
    Given the above-mentioned market surge, we found little to buy and more to sell. Early in the quarter, before Capital One’s acquisition attempt was announced, we continued to add to our position in Discover Financial. Subsequent to that announcement, we sold our entire position in that stock. Once an acquisition is announced, the price of the stock is essentially set by arbitrageurs, who, frankly, understand the odds of the deal closing better than we could. During the quarter we also sold our position in in Goldman Sachs. A succinct version of our theory in owning Goldman goes as follows: they have large pool of capital and we believed they could allocate that capital intelligently enough to earn a decent return. Unfortunately, many of the allocation decisions they made were subpar and we saw no reason to believe that the quality of their decisions would improve in the future. We also finished trimming our position in Arch Capital, solely due to price appreciation.
    The broad market today seems to be hosting a tent revival of sorts, with tech stocks as the talismanic centerpiece. But this too offers us an opportunity: instead of bemoaning the exorbitant price of stocks, we rejoice in our ability, as just noted, to sell those holdings that are hitting highs we believe are unlikely to be sustained or surpassed, at least in the medium term. Markets like this, whether held aloft by hope, euphoria, or (ir)rational exuberance, do tend to return to earth at some point. If opportunity is knocking today, we’ll answer the door with a smile. What we won’t do is join the pilgrimage to the top of the cliff. But by this point, we assume we’re preaching to the choir.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Along with MRFOX, my new Schwab Employer sponsored brokerage account allowed for TRAIX (TRowe Price Capital Appreciation) purchase - I could not believe that the transaction went through. Also bought a spot of MAFAX.
    Schwab has some good mutual fund offerings, along with low mins. Makes Fido look like a dog.
  • QDSNX - A Fund for Retirees?
    Using Chinfist's above three fund suggestions, I decided to use Portfolio Visualizer to compare 1/3rd multi-asset fund (AQRNX)), 1/3rd style premia alternative fund (QSPNX), and 1/3rd long-short fund (QLENX) with QDSNX for the available period of July 2020 to March 2024:
    Fund: CAG MAX DD SD SHARPE SORTINO
    QDSNX 13.4% -4.6% 6.9% 1.5 3.1
    CHINFIST 18.5 -13.6 12.2 1.3 2.6
    As a conservative and retired investor I might still go with QDSNX. At this later stage of my life, and quoting a poster from another forum (BBI): " I don't really need a lot more money, but I certainly don't want to lose a lot".
    Good luck,
    Fred