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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • GASFX... Other NG Funds May Power AI
    Interview with Evercore's James West:
    Evercore ISI senior managing director James West speaks more about whether fears of Trump's impact on the industry are overblown.
    "The fact remains that the IRA bill, which is the largest investment in climate and clean tech that the world has ever seen, is largely going to remain intact because 80% of the job creation and the capital spending is going to red states, or red districts, if not higher now that more states have flipped red," West tells Yahoo Finance.
    Clean energy producers and even nuclear energy developers have been posed as the solution to AI data center's energy demands.
    natural-gas-big-winner-powers Manufacturing and New Tech (AI)
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Premium Income and Hedged Equity ETFs in registration
    David Giroux will manage the Capital Appreciation Premium Income ETF.

    I have stopped counting, but pray, tell, how many funds can this one man possibly "manage"?
    Just curious, but does the word "manage" still have any meaning in this context?
  • Fidelity Macro Opportunities Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1898391/000189839124000241/filing8301.htm
    497 1 filing8301.htm PRIMARY DOCUMENT
    Supplement to the
    Fidelity® Macro Opportunities Fund and Fidelity® Risk Parity Fund
    Class A, Class M, Class C, Class I, and Class Z
    March 30, 2024
    Prospectus
    On November 6, 2024, the Board of Trustees approved a plan of liquidation for Fidelity® Macro Opportunities Fund ("the fund"). Following Board approval, the fund will no longer pursue its stated investment objective and fund assets will be managed to provide for sufficient liquidity prior to liquidation. The fund is expected to liquidate on or about January 24, 2025. Effective after the close of business on November 8, 2024, new positions in the fund may no longer be opened. Existing shareholders may continue to hold their shares and purchase additional shares through the reinvestment of dividend and capital gain distributions until the fund's liquidation.
    AGMO-PSTK-1124-101
    1.9910260.101
    November 8, 2024
    Supplement to the
    Fidelity® Macro Opportunities Fund and Fidelity® Risk Parity Fund
    March 30, 2024
    Prospectus
    On November 6, 2024, the Board of Trustees approved a plan of liquidation for Fidelity® Macro Opportunities Fund ("the fund"). Following Board approval, the fund will no longer pursue its stated investment objective and fund assets will be managed to provide for sufficient liquidity prior to liquidation. The fund is expected to liquidate on or about January 24, 2025. Effective after the close of business on November 8, 2024, new positions in the fund may no longer be opened. Existing shareholders may continue to hold their shares and purchase additional shares through the reinvestment of dividend and capital gain distributions until the fund's liquidation.
    GMO-PSTK-1124-101
    1.9910261.101
    November 8, 2024
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @BaluBalu: I had the same problem getting the other charting apps I tried to recognize the index symbols. I should have warned you about that. I’ll go back to M* on my desktop to see if it works there.
    Comparing the 3-yr performance of the index and MOAT using average annual returns as provided by M* as well as the relative quintile performance of the two, shows that MOAT’ s underperformance occurred in 2020 and 2021. The index had a much greater drawdown in 2022, but it rebounded sharply while MOAT was certainly positive after 2022, it was sluggish compared to the rest of the market. Obviously, without the real performance of a fund to compare to MOAT, contrasting the two has methodological weaknesses.
  • MFO Premium Questions
    In another thread, @Charles confirmed that the NAVs (not prices) are used risk and return metrics at MFOP.
    "Yeah, all risk and return metrics in MFOP are based on NAV not Price, unfortunately. So, for mutual funds, insurance funds, NAV and Price are same, by definition, as I understand it. But not so for ETFs and CEFs, especially when lots of market volatility exists (March 2020) or with low volume trades."
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/183150/#Comment_183150
  • MPV and MCI bond funds
    @yugo. Yeah, all risk and return metrics in MFOP are based on NAV not Price, unfortunately. So, for mutual funds, insurance funds, NAV and Price are same, by definition, as I understand it. But not so for ETFs and CEFs, especially when lots of market volatility exists (March 2020) or with low volume trades.
    There are no funds in the database that have returned 10% or more annualized for 20 years with a MAXDD about -10% or less, except one: MPV. But again, that's NAV based. Here's chart from M* showing difference between NAV and Price for MPV. Clearly, a lot more volatility in Price.
    MPV NAV vs Price
    image
    I believe someone on board once quoted: "All NAVs are opinions." In the case of MPV, it's kind of like getting an appraisal on your house. Stays steady until next appraisal or until you go to sell. Taking the long view will help.
    BTW. The NAVs for MPV and MCI are only updated every three months.
    Here are a dozen Great Owl US funds with the lowest MAXDD over last 20 years that have also returned 10% annualized. There are actually about 450 funds that have returned that well, but typically with more pain.
    20-Year GOs with Lowest MAXDD and APR Above 10% Annualized
    image
    The dozen listed in table above are: Barings Participation Investors (MPV), Barings Corporate Investors (MCI), GMO Quality III (GQETX), Natixis Vaughan Nelson Select A Small Cap Value A (NEFJX), Alger Growth & Income A (ALBAX), Needham Aggressive Growth Retail (NEAGX), Amundi Pioneer Fundamental Growth A (PIGFX), FMI Common Stock Inv (FMIMX), Victory Sycamore Established Value R (GETGX), Williamsburg Government Street Opportunities (GVMCX), Fidelity Select Leisure Portfolio (FDLSX), and State Street Elfun Trusts (ELFNX).
    I suspect if MPV and MCI were open-ended funds, they would not be on the list.
    Hope this helps.
    c
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @BaluBalu: thanks for the idea. I had not thought of contacting a company about offering a new fund. The outperformance of the Composite Index may very well due to the Mag 7 and other high-fliers being well represented. History tells us that these stocks can’t stay on a tear forever. I wish I understood better how various weighting schemes work and how (hypothetically) one could recommend one or the other method to employ for a new fund. Unfortunately, I’m a humanités guy, weak in math.
    MOAT had only one stumble shortly after it began trading, the methodology and reconstitution rules got tweaked, and success followed. It then outperformed the S&P 500 for many years and I was really pleased. I thought recent travails were temporary, but I’ve lost faith. Sounds as though you have substantial gains. I try to tell myself that gains are a good thing and that some of them will be offset by the sales of my bone-headed choices.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    Can you imagine heading up a household with a wife and a couple kids...trying to put food on the table, raising your kids in safe neighborhood with decent schools..price of everything from groceries, insurance, mortgages going thru the roof due to the Biden/Harris policies, layoffs going on at work...and here comes Krugman and Biden/Harris and other smug elites telling you everything is great, never mind your lying eyes...sheet...Biden/Harris telling you the job market is great..never mind it is all DEI govt hires and Uber drivers...
    And here is comrade Harris picking arguably the biggest communist fruit she could have picked for a VP...and trying to tell you she is more of a centrist...ya right....never telling you her views and wanting you to believe she has changed...how stupid did they think Americans are?
    And ya, let's hand out more monies/freebies...$25k for a house, more student debt cancellation, give black men monies to start a cannabis shop..like they aren't smart enough to start another type of business ..lawfare...suppression of free speech and expression...did you see how Google tried to suppress the Joe Rogan/Trump Interview...oy vey so obvious...Biden/Harris trying to enforce a mandatory experimental jab on everyone..taxing unrealized capital gains...are you shitting me? On and on.
    Trump not only smoked Harris, he beat the uber liberal university prof's brainwashing our children, the media, the likes of the NY Times, Google, etc...except for Twitter X, thank god for Elon...he beat all the musicians...actors...
    Biden/Harris has left this country in rough shape...and world in rough shape...Trump and his excellent team has their work cut out for them.
    I'll sum up like when I picked up my car at the garage yesterday evening...the mechanics and the shop owner were winding up their day...and a clip of Harris came on...one of the mechanics said out loud afterwards..."Get the FUCK out of my White House and take the Marshmallow with you..as quickly as possible."
  • Roundhill S&P Global Luxury and Alerian LNG ETFs will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1683471/000089418924006631/roundhillluxxlngg497eliqui.htm
    497 1 roundhillluxxlngg497eliqui.htm 497 ROUNDHILL LUXX & LNGG SUPPLEMENT
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    Registration Nos. 333-215588; 811-23226
    Supplement dated November 6, 2024
    to the
    Roundhill S&P Global Luxury ETF (LUXX)
    Roundhill Alerian LNG ETF (LNGG)
    Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information,
    each dated April 30, 2024, as supplemented
    each, a series of Listed Funds Trust
    After careful consideration, and at the recommendation of Roundhill Financial Inc., the investment adviser to the Roundhill S&P Global Luxury ETF and the Roundhill Alerian LNG ETF (each, a “Fund,” and collectively, the “Funds”), the Board of Trustees of Listed Funds Trust approved the closing and subsequent liquidation of the Funds pursuant to the terms of a Plan of Liquidation. Accordingly, the Funds are expected to cease operations, liquidate their assets, and distribute the liquidation proceeds to shareholders of record on or about November 29, 2024 (the “Liquidation Date”). Shares of the Funds are listed on the NYSE Arca, Inc.
    Beginning on or about November 6, 2024 and continuing through the Liquidation Date, the Funds will liquidate their portfolio assets. As a result, during this period, the Funds will increase their cash holdings and deviate from their investment objectives, investment strategies, and investment policies as stated in the Funds’ Prospectuses and SAI.
    The Funds will no longer accept orders for new creation units after the close of business on the business day prior to the Liquidation Date (November 27, 2024), and trading in shares of the Funds will be halted prior to market open on the Liquidation Date. Prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may only be able to sell their shares to certain broker-dealers, and there is no assurance that there will be a market for the Funds’ shares during that time period. Customary brokerage charges may apply to such transactions.
    If no action is taken by a Fund shareholder prior to the Liquidation Date, each Fund will distribute to such shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash distribution equal to the net asset value of the shareholder’s applicable Fund shares as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date. This amount will include any accrued capital gains and dividends. Shareholders remaining in the Funds on the Liquidation Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Funds. The liquidating cash distribution to shareholders will be treated as payment in exchange for their shares. The liquidation of your shares may be treated as a taxable event. Shareholders should contact their tax adviser to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation.
    Shareholders can call (800) 617-0004 for additional information.
    Please retain this supplement with your Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and
    Statement of Additional Information for future reference.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    Hope nobody’s shorting this stock today…..

    None in this forum. It would be interesting to see how the stock trades going forward, given so many took their gains in the last four days.
    Hanging on to a few Trump trades did not feel great the last few days. Can not wait to see how they would open tomorrow - I am sure I do not enough.
    DJT performance today is underwhelming, up 6%. Many Trump trades were up many times that. So, those that took gains in the last few days were right to do so. If you shorted this sucker when it was trading in 50s, you did fine to close today.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    Hope nobody’s shorting this stock today…..
    None in this forum. It would be interesting to see how the stock trades going forward, given so many took their gains in the last four days.
    Hanging on to a few Trump trades did not feel great the last few days. Can not wait to see how they would open tomorrow - I am sure I do not enough.
  • ⇒ All Things Boeing ... Machinist Union Accepts Latest Boeing Contract Offer
    Wage increase of +38% over 4 years means +8.385% annualized.
    $12K ratification bonus for 33K machinists means $396 million.
    Boeing raised $23.5 billion in stock and convertible preferreds to shore up its finances - amounts reported vary ($21.1-24.3 billion) because of several elements such as stock, preferred, line of credits, additional allotment to be sold. The underwriters got $300 million.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-raises-21-billion-capital-051740350.html
    https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/732514
    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeing-launches-offering-90-mln-common-shares-5-bln-depositary-shares-2024-10-28/
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @BaluBalu, FWIW, I really like the Capital Group ETFs, particularly CGDV for LCV. Not sure what 'quality factor' means so I can't say it "overweighs" it.
    Thanks Mike. I have near full position in CGDV, with a bit of room but not enough. (Incidentally, its Quality score in M* factor profile is low, though higher than that of GQHPX, the fund that has Quality in its name. I think I may have to rethink my looking Quality in isolation. May be low quality combined with low volatility produces magic!. I always discounted equity volatility in benign credit conditions but may be there is something I am not considering.)
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @BaluBalu, FWIW, I really like the Capital Group ETFs, particularly CGDV for LCV. Not sure what 'quality factor' means so I can't say it "overweighs" it.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    CPAI is systematic, a diversifier, and defensive. Its aim is capital appreciation. It uses multiple machine models and AI to select the stocks while adjusting to different factors to seek outperformance to the market. It is new to the portfolio. (BTW I sold 60K of MRFOX but still own 20K.)
    I own it in six figures. My dilemma is what to replace with and I want to replace it with one ticker. SPY is always too expensive to my eye, though it made money within six months after every time I bought it, and I never sold it. MRFOX is a value fund and so may be I should replace it with a value fund. I would appreciate if anyone knows of a value fund that overweights Quality factor.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    CPAI is systematic, a diversifier, and defensive. Its aim is capital appreciation. It uses multiple machine models and AI to select the stocks while adjusting to different factors to seek outperformance to the market. It is new to the portfolio. (BTW I sold 60K of MRFOX but still own 20K.)
  • the November issue of MFO is live!
    Though a bit shorter than usual (six stories instead of seven or eight) because I suspect it will be a bit hard to be heard above the clamor of the election. Just finished reading a story on coping with election anxiety which made good points even if it's a bit hard to chill out.
    Devesh, as I note in the publisher's letter, has been called back to active service in the world o' finance. I will miss his voice even though I cheer for his opportunities.
    Lynn continues to humble and inspire me with the breadth of his post-retirement vision and engagement. That continues this money with his advice on living paycheck-to-paycheck and his work with a group that helps folks facing that exact challenge.
    The unifying theme on the three fund specific pieces might be "a redemption story." AlphaCentric has been mightily troubled, into which CrossingBridge might bring an island of calm and strong performance. David Sherman is very sure that "approach with caution" is good advice for folks interested in AlphaCentric Real Income. His team is working to create a smooth portfolio transition and a valuable tool for you, but both with take time.
    Bridgeway is one of those groups whose culture is utterly admirable (from capping executive comp to donating half of their earnings to charity to have the senior people answer the phone when you call) but whose performance is streaky. Back in the days of Brill's MFI we used to have portfolio contests judged on monthly performance. If you wanted to use, toggle Bridgeway Ultra-Small with Bridgeway Ultra-Large and a soupcon of Technology Value was nearly unbeatable. For a long while Aggressive Investor (and not-quite-as Aggressive Investor II) were golden. Then ... In any case, they think they've found a powerful tool in their Intangible Capital Intensity metric, they've been running private money successfully with it and the lead manager built a $15 billion practice at QMA using a similar discipline.
    Even Tweedy, Browne has elements of redemption. They're 100 years old now, deeply committed to value and famously authors of What Has Worked in Investing. Except that it hasn't worked quite as it used to which has led Tweedy in the direction of "value in a new century" research. High dividend was one move, insider alignment (along with value) is the next. They rarely take impulsive steps, so I'll be curious to see how things play out.
    And The Shadow is chronicling a lot of active ETF from mutual fund guys and fund-to-ETF conversions, signs of a reorienting industry.
    Finally, you'll note our podcasting foray. Let me know if there's any gain there, and we can try using the tech on investing-specific articles. In theory it's just "upload and stand back." In practice, it takes five or six sets of revise-and-resubmit to get the "podcast hosts" to catch our meaning and direction. That said, if it works for folks, we'll do it.
    Cheers.
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Premium Income and Hedged Equity ETFs in registration
    T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Premium Income ETF
    [Investment Objective(s)
    The fund seeks to provide regular distributions while aiming for capital preservation with potential for capital appreciation.
    Principal Investment Strategies
    The fund normally invests in equities and implements a covered call options strategy to achieve its investment objective.]
    is a competitor to
    JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF JEPI, which tends to carry more of a value oriented portfolio.