The Perennial Obsession With Constantly Predicting Recessions
James Picerno @ The Capital Spectator from 6/5/2016
According to a variety of “experts,” the US has been on the cusp of a new contraction ever since the last recession ended more than seven years ago. Yet the US economy has continued to expand,Predicting otherwise, continually, is a staple among the usual suspects. The projections, however, are conspicuous only for being wrong, so far. In time, a new recession will strike. But forever seeing a new downturn around the next corner is a short cut to failure, whether you’re managing an investment portfolio or running a business. Unless, of course, you’re in the media business or selling books and newsletters that traffic in disaster scenarios.
As for rolling the dice by reading the headlines du jour, well, let’s just say that history hasn’t been kind to this approach, as the following examples from recent history remind:
Included :recession predictions during the past several years from Bill Gross to Larry Summers including this one that still has 15+ months for a possible outcome.
If [Donald Trump] were elected, I would expect a protracted recession to begin within 18 months.
Larry Summers, former Treasury Secretary, via The Washington Post, Jun. 5, 2016
https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-perennial-obsession-with-constantly-predicting-recessions/

Guys, I'm not looking to understand bonds. I don't claim to be at expert at anything, but that's not my question. I'm just trying to understand what the heck the Video was about.
For instance, here's one interpretation I want to offer (and you guys can tell me if that's what he is saying or something else)
People sell bonds when they expect interest rates to rise. If "bonds are oversold", then that means Gundlach thinks people's expectations are not going to pan out in future. In other words, interest rates will not go up meaningfully, and holding bonds and making interest would be a good thing. As to over what "term" he is referring to is anyone's guess. If he is talking short term, then I propose capital punishment for him and everyone at CNBC.
What say you?

Virtus Investment Partners Prices Public Offerings of Common Stock and Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock in Connection with Pending Acquisition of RidgeWorth Investments
Virtus Investment Partners (NASDAQ: VRTS ) -1.7% priced its concurrent underwritten public offerings of 910,000 shares at $110/share and 1M convertible preferred shares @ 7.25% at a liquidation preference of $100/share.
Net proceeds along the with cash on hand, proceeds from the sale of investments and borrowings pursuant to its committed debt financing, to finance its previously announced acquisition of RidgeWorth Investments and pay related fees and expenses.
Dividends on the mandatory convertible preferred stock will be payable on a cumulative basis when, as and if declared by Virtus' board of directors, at an annual rate of 7.25 percent on the liquidation preference of $100.00 per share. If declared, these dividends will be paid in cash, or, subject to certain limitations, in shares of Virtus' common stock (or a combination) on February 1, May 1, August 1, and November 1 of each year, commencing May 1, 2017, and continuing to, and including, February 1, 2020.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/virtus-investment-partners-prices-public-offerings-of-common-stock-and-mandatory-convertible-preferred-stock-in-connection-with-pending-acquisition-of-ridgeworth-investments-300398043.html
Virtus Fund Family Data Pages Assets $22,598 bl
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/FundFamily/Snapshot.asp?symbol=0C00001YUH
RidgeWorth Mutual Fund Family Data Pages Assets $16,780 bl
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/FundFamily/Snapshot.asp?symbol=0C00001Z4I

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312517020127/d336634d497.htm
497 1 d336634d497.htm 497
Janus Investment Fund
Janus International Equity Fund
Supplement dated January 27, 2017
to Currently Effective Prospectuses
The Board of Trustees (the “Trustees”) of Janus Investment Fund has approved a plan to liquidate and terminate Janus International Equity Fund (the “Fund”) with such liquidation effective on or about March 30, 2017 or at such other time as may be authorized by the Trustees (“Liquidation Date”). Termination of the Fund is expected to occur as soon as practicable following liquidation.
Effective at the close of business February 3, 2017, the Fund will no longer accept investments by new shareholders. The Fund may be required to make a distribution of any income and/or capital gains of the Fund in connection with its liquidation.
Shareholders of the Fund may redeem their shares or exchange their shares for shares of another Janus fund which they are eligible to purchase at any time prior to the Liquidation Date. Effective at the close of business February 3, 2017, any applicable contingent deferred sales charges (“CDSC”) charged by the Fund will be waived for redemptions or exchanges through the Liquidation Date. Exchanges by Class A shareholders into Class A Shares of another Janus fund are not subject to any applicable initial sales charge. For shareholders holding shares through an intermediary, check with your intermediary regarding other Janus funds and share classes offered through your intermediary.
If a shareholder has not redeemed their shares as of the Liquidation Date, the shareholder’s account will be automatically redeemed and proceeds will be sent to the shareholder of record. For shareholders of Class D Shares investing in a tax-deferred account, the shares will be placed in Janus Government Money Market Fund.
To prepare for the closing and liquidation of the Fund, the Fund’s portfolio managers may increase the Fund’s assets held in cash and similar instruments in order to pay for Fund expenses and meet redemption requests. As a result, the Fund may deviate from its stated investment strategies and policies and accordingly cease being managed to meet its investment objective during the liquidation of the Fund.
Additionally, any asset reductions and increase in cash and similar instruments could adversely affect the Fund’s short-term performance prior to the Liquidation Date. The Fund will incur transaction costs, such as brokerage commissions, when selling portfolio securities as a result of its plan to liquidate and terminate. These transaction costs may adversely affect performance.
The redemption or exchange of shares held by a shareholder will generally be considered a taxable event. A shareholder should consult their personal tax adviser concerning their particular tax situation.
A shareholder may obtain additional information by calling their plan sponsor, broker-dealer, or financial institution, or by contacting a Janus representative at 1-877-335-2687 (or 1-800-525-3713 if you hold shares directly with Janus Capital). ...

Back on the topic of what we are BUYING / SELLING /CONSIDERING...
I had loaded up on yieldy stuff when it sold off after the election (muni-CEFs, Pimco taxable CEFs, preferred-CEFs REITs). In the past couple of weeks, I rotated out of those that went up the most (e.g. PIMCO muni-CEFs), and replaced SOME of those proceeds into other muni-CEFs which had not participated so much.
With the remainder of the proceeds, I've been opening/re-entering what I presume will be lower-beta bond OEFs (e.g. PMZDX, SPFPX) and adding to my positions in ACVVX - a pretty decent market-neutral fund and PIMIX (Pimco Income). -- Basically trying to lock-in some gains and dial-down some of the beta in my fixed-income positions to lower-beta options.
In my 401k, will likely be selling down my 27% allocation in PTTRX; proceeds into the SV.

I thought CEM, a closed end fund, would provide capital appreciation for me without the headache of the K-1 tax form. I could not have gone into the MLP market at a worse time, so my tale is cautionary. I'm a lousy timer and CEFs can exacerbate errors.

Hi,
Could you please help me in identifying better choices in the following? I have IRAs with Vangard and TDA, where I have superb choices and invested in funds ike VDIGX, VHCOX, ARTKX, FPACX, AKREX, SFGIX, GPGOX, etc.
There are some good funds like OAKBX, Janus Enterprise, V'rd health care, bond funds, index funds, etc. in this list, but overall disappointing choices in my opinion.
I am comfortable with my allocation %ages for various asset classes, so where I need the advice is just in identifying good funds, not overall asses allocation. Appreciate all of your help.
LCap
****
Janus Enterprise Fund Class N (JDMNX) Stock
American Beacon Large Cap Value Fund Class Institutional (AADEX) Stock
Fidelity® Capital Appreciation Fund - Class K (FCAKX) Stock
Fidelity® 500 Index Fund - Institutional Class (FXSIX) Stock
Fidelity® Large Cap Growth Index Fund - Premium Class (FSUPX) Stock
Fidelity® Large Cap Value Index Fund - Premium Class (FLCHX) Stock
MCap
****
Fidelity® Mid Cap Index Fund - Premium Class (FSCKX) Stock
MFS Mid Cap Value Fund Class R6 (MVCKX) Stock
Fidelity® Extended Market Index Fund - Premium Class (FSEVX) Stock
Scap
****
Northern Small Cap Value Fund (NOSGX) Stock
Loomis Sayles Small Cap Value Fund Class N (LSCNX) Stock
UBS U.S. Small Cap Growth Fund Class P (BISCX) Stock
Fidelity® Small Cap Index Fund - Premium Class (FSSVX) Stock
Balanced
********
Oakmark Equity And Income Fund Investor Class (OAKBX) Blend
Sector
******
Cohen & Steers Realty Shares Fund (CSRSX) Stock
Vanguard Health Care Fund Admiral Shares (VGHAX) Stock
International/Global
********************
Deutsche Global Small Cap Fund Institutional Class (KGDIX) Stock
Invesco Developing Markets Fund R5 Class (GTDIX) Stock
Fidelity® International Discovery Fund - Class K (FIDKX) Stock
Bonds
*****
Fidelity® Total Bond Fund (FTBFX) Bond
Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Admiral Shares (VAIPX) Bond
Money Market
************
Putnam Stable Value Fund Bond
Fidelity® Investments Money Market Government Portfolio - Class I (FIGXX) Short Term
Retirement Series
*****************
FIAM Target Date 2060 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
FIAM Target Date 2055 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
FIAM Target Date 2050 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
FIAM Target Date 2045 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
FIAM Target Date 2040 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
FIAM Target Date 2035 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
FIAM Target Date 2030 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
FIAM Target Date 2025 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
FIAM Target Date 2020 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
FIAM Target Date 2015 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
FIAM Target Date 2010 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
FIAM Target Date 2005 Commingled Pool Class S Blend
FIAM Target Date Income Commingled Pool Class S Blend

Inflated Optimism?
Economic Overview:
Week Ending January 20, 2017 © 2017 Payden & Rygel All rights reserved.
From 2011 to 2015, the world inflation rate fell year after year. By 2016, the world was abuzz with deflation mania, fearing a further decline in the rate of inflation. Instead, as commodity prices recovered and global growth found its footing, consumer prices perked up in 2016. For 2017, there is a reason to believe the deflation fear may be behind us, as updated forecasts released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week show an expected annual pick-up in prices for the second time in the last five years.

Highlights of the Week:
Treasuries: Treasury markets absorbed stronger inflation and housing data this week. Yields ground higher every day in this holiday-shortened week. The icing on the cake was Yellen’s speech on Wednesday where no one anticipated any remarks with regards to monetary policy and received hawkish ones at that.
Securitized Products:
The ABS market is following along with Ford auto receivables bringing a fully compliant ABS deal both regarding the 5% risk retention requirement and full loan level disclosure. The queue for next week is also full of issuers ready to hit the marketplace.
High Yield:
In this environment, the market has room to compress further, particularly given low expected default rates. Prudent, valuation-conscious investors should be rewarded.
Emerging Markets: The latest activity data from China was a reminder of the country’s adjustment from investment-led to consumption-driven growth. December industrial production and xed asset investment growth eased modestly to 6.0% year-over-year (y/y) and 8.1% y/y, respectively, while retail sales came better than expected at 10.9% y/y.
Municipals Municipal bond funds experienced a second consecutive week of in ows, taking in an additional $511.74 million. Investor demand has been strong, with $10 billion in new issuance well received and broad follow-through in secondary trading.
https://www.payden.com/weekly/wir012017.pdf
Honey. I think the kids are (finally ) leaving ! + We Look Back At Obama Years From Hoya Capital
...demographics over the next ten years are highly favorable to apartment demand. Rent growth data will certainly be interesting over the next several years: it will be a battle between high levels of supply and high levels of demand.
Real Estate Weekly: Trump Takes Office, We Look Back At Obama Years
Hoya Capital Real Estate Jan. 20, 2017
With Donald Trump taking office this week, we think it's interesting to look back at the performance of REITs under the Obama Administration.
REITs returned an average of 13% per year (price) and roughly 17% including dividends. Interesting, this 175% holding period return is almost exactly inline with the broader S&P 500 index.

It's important to note the context, though. Obama took office at almost the exact bottom of an 80% decline in REIT values over the preceding 18 months as the REIT ETF bottomed just a month after inauguration.
Bottom Line So how will real estate perform under Trump? Well, we can pretty confidently say that commercial real estate won't perform as well under Trump as they did under Obama, but that should be rather obvious. Trump enters office at a time that commercial real estate values are near record highs and valuations appear healthy. Based on prevailing cap rate and economic growth expectations, REIT investors should continue to expect a 5-8% average annual total return with plenty of annual volatility.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4038310-real-estate-weekly-trump-takes-office-look-back-obama-years
Treasury yields are up since Election Day. The benchmark 10-year Treasury is currently trading at 2.47% (as of Jan. 19, based on daily data via Treasury.gov). That’s up from 1.90% on Election Day and close to the highest level in two years.

http://www.capitalspectator.com/moderate-us-growth-prevails-at-dawn-of-trump-era/

Thanks Ted. A good sign that you're doing better. Good post.
I think what is often overlooked in discussions about international markets (like a recent thread) is the dollar. Its strength is one reason those markets have lagged for several years. Of course, currency trends can persist for years or decades. No one really knows. Eventually, they do reverse. Today the trend reversed (probably temporarily) and the dollar fell hard. Will be interesting to see what impact, if any, that has on international funds today. Many international stock and bond funds hedge against dollar flux and many international stock funds also use something called "Fair Value Pricing" (FVP) - some more than others. Both practices would tend to mitigate any big gains in international funds on any given day. (FVP): https://advisors.vanguard.com/iwe/pdf/FAFVP.pdf
As regulars know, I'm pretty conservative at 70+. I'm also 80+% buy and hold (sometimes called "buy and die"). But it's fun to play around a little around the edges. In December I sold my remaining shares in PRNEX (heavy on refiners). It jumped 25% in 2016 as oil began the year around $30 and reached over $55 in late December - a near doubling in less than 12 months. I suspect it has further to go, but didn't want to risk the year's gains. Used the $$ (about 2.5% of holdings) to boost cash a bit and also to buy my first ever index fund, PIEQX, which invests in developed overseas markets (Europe, Japan, Australia, South Korea, etc.). A month is way too short a period to draw conclusions, but the new fund has been my best performer this year. One reason I chose an index international fund (over a managed) is my assumption (could be wrong here) that T Rowe isn't using dollar hedging or FVP on this one. So the currency play should be near 100% - for better or worse.
Good luck folks. Always enjoy hearing how others invest and see things.

FYI: Below is a look at the recent performance of various asset classes using key ETFs that we track on a daily basis. For each ETF, we show its performance year-to-date, since the Fed hiked rates on December 14th, and since the close on Election Day 2016 (11/8/16).
Most US equity ETFs (left side of matrix) are up between 0-2% so far year-to-date, but the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been a standout to the upside with a 2017 gain of 3.95%. The Dow 30 (DIA) has lagged with a gain of just 0.60%. Looking at sectors, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Telecom (IYZ) are up the most YTD, while Energy (XLE) and Consumer Staples (XLP) are down the most.
Since the Fed hiked rates in mid-December, the Energy sector is the only area of the US market that has felt any kind of pain (-2.48%), while Consumer Staples is down less than 1%. Since the election, the Financial (XLF) and Telecom (IYZ) sectors are the only ones up more than 10%.
Outside of the US, many countries have already posted nice gains in 2017. Brazil (EWZ) is up 7.8% YTD after posting a big gain in 2016 as well. Hong Kong (EWH) and Australia (EWA) are both up more than 5%, while Canada (EWC), China (ASHR), India (PIN), and Japan (EWJ) are all up more than 3%. Mexico (EWW) is the only country on our matrix that is down year-to-date, and that follows a very weak Q4 as well.
Looking at commodities, gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) have both gotten off to good starts to 2017, while oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) are in the red. Treasury ETFs are up both YTD and since the Fed hiked rates, but they’re all still down since the election.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/recent-asset-class-performance-international-markets-bounce/

For a short term position, cost is secondary to market movement. Frontier market ETFs don't seem to offer an advantage aside from cost over OEFs. Meanwhile they have the usual bid/ask cost mitigating or perhaps dominating the ST management cost difference.

While the ETF options are more attractively priced, these index funds do face certain challenges in frontier markets, which is a relatively illiquid asset class. For example, when executing an index change, an ETF portfolio manager might face front-running and/or large market-impact costs. Turnover related to index changes could also result in capital gains distributions, as most frontier markets do not allow for in-kind creations and redemptions (the mechanism that allows ETFs to remove securities from their portfolio without incurring capital gains).

There is only one diversified "frontier" market ETF with more than 1/3 of its assets in frontier markets. FM. If one is recommending an ETF for this market segment, that shouldn't have been so hard to name.
ETF.com rates this the best frontier market ETF. That said, it also says that it is not particularly representative of this market segment, with a "poor tracking mean[ing] that realized holding costs are even higher." Overall, it rates FM an 'F' on a scale of A-F.
Why again are ETFs good in this market segment for ST trading? Again quoting ETF.com: "All three [ETFs in the market segment] trade poorly. FM sees the best volume most days, but it still won't be cheap to buy and sell." That may be excusable for a LT position, but is detrimental to use in ST trading.
I'm with Kevin on this one - if you get entertainment value out of these funds, that's fine. Otherwise it's a lot of research work for something that will not make a noticeable impact on your portfolio.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318342/000139834417000539/fp0023990_497.htm
497 1 fp0023990_497.htm
Towle Deep Value Fund
(Ticker Symbol: TDVFX)
A series of Investment Managers Series Trust (the “Trust)
Supplement dated January 13, 2017 to the
Prospectus, Statement of Additional Information and Summary Prospectus, dated February 1, 2016.
IMPORTANT NOTICE ON PURCHASE OF FUND SHARES
Effective as of the close of business on January 27, 2017 (the “Closing Date”), the Towle Deep Value Fund (the “Fund”) will be publicly offered on a limited basis.
After the Closing Date, only certain investors will be eligible to purchase shares of the Fund, as described below (the “closure policy”). In addition, both before and after the Closing Date, the Fund may from time to time, in its sole discretion based on the Fund’s net asset levels and other factors, limit the types of investors permitted to open new accounts, limit new purchases into the Fund or otherwise modify the closure policy at any time on a case-by-case basis.
The following groups will be permitted to continue to purchase Fund shares after the Closing Date:
1. Shareholders of record of the Fund as of the Closing Date may continue to purchase additional shares in their existing Fund accounts either directly from the Fund or through a financial intermediary and may continue to reinvest dividends or capital gains distributions from shares owned in the Fund.
2. Existing registered investment advisor (RIA) and bank trust firms that have an investment allocation to the Fund in a fee-based, wrap or advisory account may continue to add new clients or purchase shares.
3. New shareholders may open Fund accounts and purchase shares directly from the Fund (i.e. not through a financial intermediary).
4. Certain financial intermediaries may continue to open new underlying customer accounts provided the platform on which they offer access to the Fund has an existing funded position.
5. Group employer benefit plans, including 401(k), 403(b), 457 plans, and health savings account programs (and their successor, related and affiliated plans), which make the Fund available to participants on or before the Closing Date, may continue to open accounts for new participants in the Fund and purchase additional shares in existing participant accounts. New group employer benefit plans, including 401(k), 403(b), and 457 plans, and health savings account programs (and their successor, related and affiliated plans), may also establish new accounts with the Fund, provided the new plans have approved and selected the Fund as an investment option by the Closing Date and the plan has also been accepted for investment by the Fund by the Closing Date.
6. Members of the Fund’s Board of Trustees, persons affiliated with the Advisor and their immediate families will be able to purchase shares of the Fund and establish new accounts.
In general, the Fund will rely on a financial intermediary to prevent a new account from being opened within an omnibus account established at that financial intermediary if the account would not otherwise satisfy the conditions outlined above. The Fund’s ability to monitor new accounts that are opened through omnibus accounts or other nominee accounts is limited and the ability to limit a new account to those that meet the above criteria with respect to financial intermediaries may vary depending upon the capabilities of those financial intermediaries. Investors may be asked to verify that they meet one of the exceptions above prior to opening a new account in the Fund. The Fund may permit you to open a new account if the Fund reasonably believes that you are eligible. The Fund also may decline to permit you to open a new account if the Fund believes that doing so would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders, even if you would be eligible to open a new account under these exceptions. If all shares of the Fund in an existing account are redeemed, the shareholder’s account will be closed. Such former shareholders will not be able to buy additional shares of the Fund or reopen their account.
Please file this Supplement with your records.

I know this is mostly mutual funds, but I also read a couple of stock newsletters too, esp dividend oriented ones and pick up a small position when something sounds cheap or reasonable. I missed GM last month so bit on CVS rather than add to VIG or VDGIX.
Added to POLRX 12/30 after I sold some of my much appreciated indiviual stocks (since 1998!) to take advantage of capital losses last year and diversify a bit. More to VASVX NCAVX and but afraid I missed a lot of the rally.
Still very uncertain what to do about Fixed Income. I am concerned the burgeoning inflation pressures will destroy anything but short term bonds, but at yields of 1% why bother? Surely this news is baked into the prices, but if you believe standard ideas, the 10 year returns on Intermediate Bonds will only match their current yields.
Sure hope the Winklevoss's Bitcoin ETF gets approved... It would be fun to speculate a little Buy at $400 sell at $1000! One billion Chinese investors can't be wrong!

LIBOR At 1% For First Time In 7 Years - A Significant Level For Leveraged Loans
Copyright © 2016 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC
During periods of rising interest rates, the base rate will also increase, creating a coupon rate that keeps pace with current interest rates. Hence, the appeal of floating-rate loans in rising-rate environments.
Leveraged loans (also called bank loans or senior loans) are a particular type of floating-rate instrument. These are loans that are typically taken on by firms with higher existing levels of debt (hence the use of "leveraged" in the name). However, the loans are senior in the capital structure and are often secured by assets of the borrowing company.
Due to the floating-rate characteristics discussed previously, leveraged loans tend to perform well in environments of rising rates (or expected rising rates). http://seekingalpha.com/article/4033644-libor-1-percent-first-time-7-years-significant-level-leveraged-For the year, US junk bonds topped the list. Markit’s iBoxx Liquid High Yield Index surged 15.3% in 2016, beating the 12.8% increase for the number-two performer (US stocks via the Russell 3000) by a comfortable margin. The only loser among the major asset classes last year: cash (3-month T-bills), which inched down 0.1%.

src="https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2017/1/2/saupload_gmi.02jan2017.png" />loanshttp://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-december-2016-performance-review/

Dear friends,
Well, the Patriots have the NFL’s best record (14-2) and have outscored their opponents by a league-high 191 points this year, which is a pretty good signal that New Year’s is upon us and the January issue of the Mutual Fund Observer has launched. You can find it at http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/issue/january-2017/.
Highlights of our January issue include:
Snowball’s “publisher’s letter” shares a hard truth: despite everything you’ve heard in the past year, things are getting better. Distinctly better. Historically better. Globally better. He shares the evidence, offers you a chance to make a difference in the life of a child and presents “the 2% challenge.”
Leigh Walzer, president of Trapezoid LLC, looks at the role of investor activism in prying open the value locked away in closed-end fund portfolios; at base, the liquidation value of the funds routinely exceeds their market NAVs which leads more and more activists to look for quick gains through forced liquidations.
Ed Studzinski returns to the question of fund expenses. We celebrate expense reductions. Ed asks us to consider the cost of those reductions; when a fund dependent on talent fires its talent, who gains?
Bob Cochran reminds us that prediction is easy while getting it right is hard. Maybe impossible. That has distinct consequences for how you need to approach your finances. Bob lays out the case for humility for us.
Charles Boccadoro updates folks on developments at MFO Premium; the chief one is a reader-inspired change that eliminates the effect of loads on return calculations. That’s based on the observation that virtually all loaded funds are now available with waivers. See Charles for details.
Snowball also spends a moment trying to reason with the fund community, using the lens of an abandoned, sand-filled squatter toilet in the weeds behind a rural farmhouse as a way of focusing their attention. The question at the bottom line: are you stubborn enough to choose failure on your own terms to success that requires change? Cue Sinatra: “I did it myyyyyy …”
Dennis Barran completes an Intrepid trifecta with his extended profile of Intrepid International (ICMIX), a young fund that mirrors Intrepid’s absolute value, risk-aware, small cap value orientation.
One of the decade’s best emerging markets managers has re-emerged. Rajiv Jain, long-time star manager of Virtus Emerging Markets Opportunities (HEMZX), resigned from Vontobel Asset Management in March to start his own firm. On December 28, GQG Partners Emerging Markets Equity launched with Mr. Jain at the helm. It’s much like his previous charge, give or take the fact that he’s unambiguously in charge and is managing $30 million rather than $48 billion. We share a little detail in our first Launch Alert.
Our second Launch Alert focuses on Cognios Large Cap Value, which represents the strategy being the “long” portfolio at the five-star Cognios Large Cap Market Neutral Fund.
Last month we highlighted the launch of Rondure Global Advisors, a partnership between former star Wasatch manager Laura Geritz and her former Wasatch colleagues who launched Grandeur Peak. This month we provide first word about her two funds in registration which will be available to you in March.
But wait, there’s more! We detail a relatively modest 19 fund liquidations and Chip tracked down three dozen manager changes, one of which strikes us as quite odd. We found 16 funds in registration, including a suite from BNP Paribas and a couple other goodies. There’s other stuff, too.
If you prefer the long scrolling format, find it at http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2017/1/
We hope you enjoy it all in the January Mutual Fund Observer at www.mutualfundobserver.com!

After an early year scare, US equities fared well in 2016, especially since November 6th ... ending year up a handsome 12%.

Just about the opposite for US aggregate bonds. After a strong first half, they have given up much of their gains to close the year up 2.4%.

Real Estate Annual Performance Review from Hoya Capital Real Estate
Hoya wrote a brief annual recap this week, "REIT Awards: 2016." We noted the moderate 6-7% total return in the REIT indexes hides significant divergences within the real estate sector.So how does 2016 stack up by historical standards? Believe it or not, the seemingly strong 6% return is actually among the lowest annual returns since the beginning of the "Modern REIT Era" in 1992, a testament to the robust performance of the real estate sector over the past quarter century.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4033516-real-estate-weekly-reits-end-2016-high-note-christmas-retail-sales-surge

From a hard bottom in early Feb. 2016, a large portion of the better managed HY bond funds are running about +16% returns. This movement may exist and continue the trend into the unknown future for "x" months or ??? One is or would be buying HY at a pretty high price at this time, IMHO. If pricing starts to decline for any number of reasons, one will find the yield even better than now; but at the expense of the loss of capital (losing money on the pricing, eh?). This situation would likely find a loss in value overall. We've held as much as 60% of our portfolio in HY/HI; but not at this time, nor would I buy at this time. Just my personal 2 cents opinion.
As to VWINX (40 bond/60 equity): you may entry any fund you choose to compare at this site page and find how returns compare going out to 10 and 15 years for this conservative fund. Yes, bonds may affect this fund going forward more so than in past years. Institutions and folks will buy bonds going forward. Pension funds and others have limited choices for some holdings to maintain policy pay out into the future. Bonds may have been wounded recently, but they are not dead. And as you understand, there are many types of bonds; and all have their day(s) in the sun.
http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=VWINX&region=usa&culture=en_US

Of course, this does not address fund families that died long ago does it?
Anybody remember Mathers Fund? Henry van der Eb was almost 100% cash in the 1990s writing lucidly why the market was wrong. He was eventually right but by that time the fund dissolved.
In rank order of most disappointing families (ie not worth the ER)
American funds... Maybe I would feel more positive if I had made any money with them or if I could tell them apart. They all look pretty homogeneous to me and too big
Franklin Templeton. too expensive, rarely excel. Bond funds are Ok but too expensive. to make up their expense ratios they go out on a limb. I ended up in some of them when Michael Price sold out, but have stuck with MDISX given large capital gains, and their ability to slide over to new management relatively successfully
Fidelity Most too big too identical. Too much work to tell what is going on.
Janus They seemed to know what they were doing in the go go 1990s but we all know how that turned out.

FYI: U.S. stocks traded lower Friday, with the Dow industrials swinging to a loss following reports that a Chinese warship seized an underwater U.S. Navy drone in international waters off the coast of the Philippines.
Even as the Dow was curtailed from its advance to the psychologically important 20,000 level, the blue-chip average is still on track for its longest weekly winning streak, at six, in more than a year.
Regards,
Ted
Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/dollar-solidifies-its-climb-on-fed-outlook-as-japan-futures-rise
Reuters:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKBN1451N9
MarketWatch:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-set-to-edge-closer-to-20000-even-as-other-markets-take-a-breather-2016-12-16/print
USA Today:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/12/16/asian-shares-muted-dollar-climbs-rate-outlook-sinks/95508208/
IBD:
http://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-backs-away-from-20000-oil-rises-alexion-gets-a-big-bounce//
CNBC:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/16/stocks-open-higher-as-traders-eye-us-dollar.html
AP:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/F/FINANCIAL_MARKETS?SITE=AP
WSJ Markets At A Glance:
http://markets.wsj.com/us
Sector Tracker:
http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
Current Futures: Negative
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx