FYI: Below is a look at the recent performance of various asset classes using key ETFs that we track on a daily basis. For each ETF, we show its performance year-to-date, since the Fed hiked rates on December 14th, and since the close on Election Day 2016 (11/8/16).
Most US equity ETFs (left side of matrix) are up between 0-2% so far year-to-date, but the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been a standout to the upside with a 2017 gain of 3.95%. The Dow 30 (DIA) has lagged with a gain of just 0.60%. Looking at sectors, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Telecom (IYZ) are up the most YTD, while Energy (XLE) and Consumer Staples (XLP) are down the most.
Since the Fed hiked rates in mid-December, the Energy sector is the only area of the US market that has felt any kind of pain (-2.48%), while Consumer Staples is down less than 1%. Since the election, the Financial (XLF) and Telecom (IYZ) sectors are the only ones up more than 10%.
Outside of the US, many countries have already posted nice gains in 2017. Brazil (EWZ) is up 7.8% YTD after posting a big gain in 2016 as well. Hong Kong (EWH) and Australia (EWA) are both up more than 5%, while Canada (EWC), China (ASHR), India (PIN), and Japan (EWJ) are all up more than 3%. Mexico (EWW) is the only country on our matrix that is down year-to-date, and that follows a very weak Q4 as well.
Looking at commodities, gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) have both gotten off to good starts to 2017, while oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) are in the red. Treasury ETFs are up both YTD and since the Fed hiked rates, but they’re all still down since the election.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/recent-asset-class-performance-international-markets-bounce/
Comments
Hopefully, you are making good progress in your recovery.
Anytime you want to restart you early morning and market closing thread know I'll close mine down.
Great to see you posting.
Skeet
I think what is often overlooked in discussions about international markets (like a recent thread) is the dollar. Its strength is one reason those markets have lagged for several years. Of course, currency trends can persist for years or decades. No one really knows. Eventually, they do reverse. Today the trend reversed (probably temporarily) and the dollar fell hard. Will be interesting to see what impact, if any, that has on international funds today. Many international stock and bond funds hedge against dollar flux and many international stock funds also use something called "Fair Value Pricing" (FVP) - some more than others. Both practices would tend to mitigate any big gains in international funds on any given day. (FVP): https://advisors.vanguard.com/iwe/pdf/FAFVP.pdf
As regulars know, I'm pretty conservative at 70+. I'm also 80+% buy and hold (sometimes called "buy and die"). But it's fun to play around a little around the edges. In December I sold my remaining shares in PRNEX (heavy on refiners). It jumped 25% in 2016 as oil began the year around $30 and reached over $55 in late December - a near doubling in less than 12 months. I suspect it has further to go, but didn't want to risk the year's gains. Used the $$ (about 2.5% of holdings) to boost cash a bit and also to buy my first ever index fund, PIEQX, which invests in developed overseas markets (Europe, Japan, Australia, South Korea, etc.). A month is way too short a period to draw conclusions, but the new fund has been my best performer this year. One reason I chose an index international fund (over a managed) is my assumption (could be wrong here) that T Rowe isn't using dollar hedging or FVP on this one. So the currency play should be near 100% - for better or worse.
Good luck folks. Always enjoy hearing how others invest and see things.