Value Funds vs. Growth Funds vs Bonds - No Longer True? Since it's been a couple of years since I last checked my 4 Portfolios, I'm re-reviewing all of my investments. I used to follow M* recommendations for proportion of Value vs Growth balance, and it did appear then and in the past that Value companies DID eventually come back in favor during tougher times to help mitigate the usually much larger Growth fund losses. After all, "shares of a company with solid fundamentals that are priced below those of its peers, based on analysis of price/earnings ratio, yield, and other factors." (they put it better than I tried to)
But, in checking "VALUE" Mutual Funds and ETFs, ALMOST ALL of them have had greater losses than MANY of the Growth funds DURING the DOWN TIMES, along with the expected LOWER GAINS during the good times. This is not just for the period YTD, but over the last several years.
In looking at many of the actual stocks/companies that are considered "VALUE", so many just seem "Old School" to me, and ones that have not - and will likely not in the future - keep up with what is, and has clearly been for a couple of years, the overall market demands. (And, besides, so many of them I am philosophically opposed to).
The same seems to be true of almost all BOND funds. We've been at these incredibly low interest rates for a long time, so bond funds have been a good counter-investment, with enough minimal gains and certainly far less losses. Even though the government (and others) have clearly stated that there will be regular 3-4 annual increases, I'm thinking it could be at least another year or two. But, at any rate, most BOND FUNDS have not been doing well enough to end up with much more than CDs.
So I would really like to hear your opinions. I am considering keeping so-called "VALUE" and BOND funds to a MINIMUM, and keeping my LARGE % of CASH as my alternative option to those. The cash would then be used to ADD to my existing GROWTH funds WHEN THEIR MARKET WAS DOWN over 10% (assuming those funds were still logical to keep).
M*: A Tumultuous First Quarter For International-Stock Funds FYI: International-stock funds faced a topsy-turvy investment environment in the first quarter of 2018. The year started off positively as the generally favorable macroeconomic, geopolitical, and corporate conditions of 2017 persisted. The MSCI ACWI ex USA Index returned 5.6% in U.S. dollar terms in January, while the French, German, Japanese, and several other developed exchanges posted mid-single-digit
gains, and the Brazilian, Chinese, and a few other emerging markets earned somewhat higher returns.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.morningstar.com/articles/858493/a-tumultuous-first-quarter-for-internationalstock-.html
What Volatile Market? Growth-Fund Managers Strut: (PSGAX)
Yes, U.S. equity ended higher at the close, BUT more of the 2pm sell down.....lend me your opinion The tech. areas had a decent close; but coughed up 2% of the daily gain after 2pm.
A quick look indicates similar actions in other equity areas, although tech. had the largest percent down.
The dollar value of trades to cause these large changes has to be VERY LARGE.
Any thoughts on this, other than trading the gains with the late day clock.............not a new event.
Am I going to have to become a late day, day trader with the etf's???? :)
Thanks.
Catch
Buy-Sell-Ponder, anticipating April, 2018 @MikeM,
Interesting ... Your brain, like most of ours, is having to deal with the “fear of missing out” (on future
gains), which is an entirely normal human reaction - owing in large measure to the length and extent of the recent bull market.
While buying the dips is often profitable, sometimes it amounts to nothing more than grabbing for the proverbial
falling knife. I think you are on the right track in sticking with your plan and trying to err on the side of caution. No crystal ball or expertise in market analysis here. Like you, I try to read a lot of varying opinions from those with more knowledge, qualifications, and experience than myself - some appearing in David’s monthly
Commentary (ies). And than shape my own conclusions.
I doubt you were serious about selling everything on March 11.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/39024/because-nobody-knows-what-s-going-to-happen-next But had you done so you would probably be money ahead at the moment. The S&P 500 closed at 2786.5 on Friday, March 9, near a record high. The NASDAQ actually did reach a record high that day (7561). Since than there’s been a lot of turbulence - as even veteran Jack Bogle has noted.
Our situations are much different. But FWIW, the only “buying” I’ve done in recent weeks is to dribble a bit into PRWCX, bringing cash levels a bit closer to normal. (Some don’t even place that one in the equity camp - considering it a balanced or allocation fund.)
Dry powder is better than
shot powder. As Yogi noted, the nice thing about cash is that
“you can spend it.” Regards and thanks for all the great posts.
Mark Hulbert: Stock Guru Who Called S&P 500 Gains Sees No New Market High Before October FYI: Sam Eisenstadt says investors can expect mediocre six-month returns.
Investors should give up any hope that the stock market will hit a new high within the next six months.
That at least is the latest forecast from Sam Eisenstadt, the former research director at Value Line Inc. Though he retired in 2009 after 63 years at that firm, he continues to update and refine a complex econometric model that generates six-month forecasts for the broader U.S. market. That model’s latest projection is that the S&P 500 SPX, -2.19% will be trading at 2,775 on Sep. 30 of this year — more than 3% below its January all-time high.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-guru-who-called-sp-500-gains-sees-no-new-market-high-before-october-2018-04-06/print
One explanation for how PDI does it
Stunned Investors Reap 95% Gains On Defaulted Puerto Rico Bonds
Is this beginning of double dip? Further thoughts on growth and income (to supplement retirement income):
When I chart a cash choice (Ultrashort bond fund) like TSYYX (TSDOX) (which has a 24 year history) with a favorite growth fund (you pick yours)...I charted TSYYX with PRMTX... I imagine these two funds working together as the growth and income ingredients in a portfolio. The roughest growth period for PRMTX was between March 2000 - March 2010. It is during this spans of time one needed to have enough income stored in a fund like TSYYX to make distributions (for income) and make it through the under performance that PRMTX was experiencing.
For a long term growth and income investor, TSYYX might also serve a the funding source to reallocate into your growth fund (PRMTX) opportunistically as it under performed during time periods. TSYYX might also serve as the recipient of your growth as it is reallocated out of growth into income, again periodically.
Reallocating (re-balancing) between these two funds is one way of capturing these opportunities. Having two funds...one for growth fund and one for income...provides a place for these opportunities grow, to be harvested, to be stored and to be re-deployed when the time is right.
@davidrmoran: So yes, timing matters...it means raising cash when growth outperforms and redeploying from cash when growth under performs. The timing method is called "rules based - periodic re-allocation or re-balancing." I'm calling cash (income fund) any investment that is highly uncorrelated to the growth fund (market).
Source:
https://investopedia.com/terms/r/rebalancing.asp@hank -Your cash holding may be serving this same purpose as a fund like FCONX or TSDOX (TSYYX). I guess I mention this because many investors forget that reallocation help a portfolio harvest
gains that can be used for income or to be redeployed when growth opportunities arise. Cash can serve that purpose as easily as a conservative fund.
@MikeM...I'm easily impressed! Not going argue over a cash choice that works for you.
24 year chart:

Quarter Begins With Investors Asking One Thing: Is Nowhere Safe?
Socially Conscious Investing Can Be A Money Pit First paragraph indicates author doesn't really know what socialism is. Individual investors taking their capital and doing whatever the hell they want with it--including giving it to socially responsible funds--is about as far from socialism as you can get.
Socially Conscious Investing Can Be A Money Pit FYI: What’s not to love about socially responsible investing? Your
capital doesn’t just enrich your life, it also flows only to companies that do social good. Why, if enough people did this, companies that harm society would face higher
capital costs as they received less
capital, and they’d die out. Socially responsible investing combines the best features of
capitalism and socialism into one nice, tidy package.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/socially-conscious-investing-can-be-a-money-pit-2018-03-29/print
MAPOX 1st Q div. 2018 Ah, but tis all about total return on an investment, yes? A dividend or capital gain is the extra gravy.
MAPOX is performing pretty good, compared to similar funds.