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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Value Funds vs. Growth Funds vs Bonds - No Longer True?
    Hi @CathyG,
    Yes, many of my A share funds currently owned came to me by way of transfers. And, because even though a commission was paid (sales load) they carry some benefits over fee based account investing. Today, most fee based accounts (new school way) charge at least a 1% fee on balances held within these fee based wraper accounts plus the investor pays fees on the mutual funds themselves. That's fees on top of fees.
    Under the old school way an investor paid a commission and generally the fees associated with with load funds were less than those of no load funds. Plus, A share investors are free to do nav exchanges with the same family of funds with no additional commissions paid. In addition, my fees paid on my sales load funds seem to be back of no load fund fees. Overall, Morningstar estimates my fees at 0.87% on invested mutual fund assets. In looking at some no load funds their fees seem to be much higher 1.2% and on upwards ... and, then add the account wrap fee. Again, fees on top of fees. I have no fees associated with the accounts that hold my A share mutual funds.
    Since, someone in my family at one time did pay a sales load these funds seem to me to still be my low cost avenue. In addition, I'd have large cap gains to pay if I sold out of them.
    So, what might be the best investment path for me might not be for you.
    Best regards,
    Old_Skeet
  • RPGAX
    Speaking of having faith, I also purchased a TMSRX for my in-laws. Now before someone calls me reckless, here's the allocation, but i will be increasing it to 33% invested. It's really just my MIL now, FIL passed away, and she is 80+
    % Fund
    -----------------------------------------------------
    77.98 T. Rowe Price Government Money Market
    5.22 T. Rowe Price Global Allocation
    4.34 T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation
    4.21 T. Rowe Price Ltd Duration Inflation-Protected Bond
    2.10 T. Rowe Price Health Sciences
    2.08 T. Rowe Price Multi-Strategy Total Return
    2.05 T. Rowe Price Floating Rate
    2.02 T. Rowe Price Emerging Mkts Value
    And FWIW I moved half of my VWELX to its Global sibling in our taxable accounts a few days back.
  • Value Funds vs. Growth Funds vs Bonds - No Longer True?
    @davidmoran
    Thanks for the information, David! I had not known of these two.
    At first glance at DSENX, when I saw SWAPs, Shorts, etc. as their top investments, that deterred me. I've been trying NOT to learn about those (or Options, etc.) as more time in my life is already spent glued to the computer than I want. BUT, Doubleline is certainly reputable so I checked further. AND I only had one investment in that Large Value M* category I keep track of that also was not in the red YTD (LRGF). Both also good longer returns, but LRGF lost less during down periods, while gaining more during better periods. On the other hand, DSENX 'Worst 3 Months' (-6.48% Aug to Oct 2015) and 'Best 3 months' (+10.33% Jan-Mar 2018) were EXACTLY the right comparison amounts I was looking for my "minimal gains but good enough and safer category" - and very similar to LRGF. So I'll add DSENX to my 'Watch' list and then check DLEUX. Thanks again for taking the time. Cathy
  • Value Funds vs. Growth Funds vs Bonds - No Longer True?
    @CathyG, In responding to your question on global equity funds held many of my global equity fund exposure have been held since the 70's in family portfolios. Some of them were passed on from gift and inheritance transfers. They might not be the ones I'd buy today although, through the years, they have served the family well.
    In my global equity sleeve found in the growth & income area the funds held are American Funds, Capital World Growth & Income (CWGIX), Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Dividend Income Fund A (EADIX) and Dreyfus Global Equity Income Fund A (DEQAX).
    In my global growth sleeve found in the growth area the funds held are American Funds New Perspective Fund A (ANWPX), American Funds Small Cap World Fund A (SMCWX) and Thornburg Global Opportunities Fund A (THOAX).
    My emerging markets fund, American Funds New World A (NEWFX) is held in my specialty sleeve which is found in the growth area of the portfolio. In addition, this sleeve also holds my ALPS Global Private Equity Fund A (LPEFX) and my Virtus Global Infrastructure Fund (PGUAX).
    These three sleeves would be where my global all equity funds are held. I have another sleeve that holds my global hybrid funds. The funds held within this sleeve are American Funds Capital Income Builder A (CAIBX), Pioneer Multi Asset Income A (PMAIX) and Thornburg Income Builder A (TIBAX).
    Hope this helps.
    Old_Skeet
  • Value Funds vs. Growth Funds vs Bonds - No Longer True?
    @Old_Skeet
    Thanks so much for taking the time to respond. The extra information really helps.
    Using M* analysis figures, my transitioning portfolio is 22% Large Cap Value, 51% Large cap growth, 9.46% mid/small value and 18% mid/small growth - with 20% Cash. I'll be adding 10% more to cash and reducing my bond percentage from 23% to 15% or so. Not that far apart from yours.
    I like the idea of your Global stock value funds. Would you mind letting me know a couple of your favorites? I've MINIMALLY recently invested in FEDDX, HJPSX and RISAX, but would like to increase my Foreign from 6% to 10% - as long as the volatility is not awful.
    I recently also tried my first CEFs. PDI and EFT. Both have returns seem TGTBT, and 9% Yield PDI seems a little frightening, but very small amounts in both until I see how they go. I sold my long-term CALIF muni-fund and reduced CMF by half. I've kept THOPX.
    I would be concerned about putting too much in a cash MF like AMAXX due to the illiquidity when I need to re-invest some of the cash, especially with such low returns. It did bother me to have the higher cash % just sit there doing nothing, but the end result was it did reduce the losses of the entire Portfolios substantially so I lose only 60% of the overall market. Yet, because of the higher growth %, my gains have been more than acceptable to me. We also have 70% cd's in Credit Union (2.2% or better for each) to our 30% investment accounts (not including the Trust fund income).
  • Any problem with YCGEX?
    Thanks @msf, a great interview on the fund's strategies.
    The interview introduce me to the term "13F's" (SEC reporting form for Hedge Funds) or (also a recent report card of mine).
    how-to-piggyback-on-warren-buffett-and-other-legendary-money-managers
    Here are a few links to investors mentioned (Lou Simpson, Glenn Greenberg, and Tom Russo) mentioned in the interview.
    A man of few words....Lou Simpson:
    https://25iq.com/2015/04/04/a-dozen-things-ive-learned-from-lou-simpson-about-investing-and-business/
    and, A Q&A with renowned investor Lou Simpson:
    https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/investment-great-lou-simpson-explains-portfolio-strategy
    Talks at Google with Tom Russo:

    and, Thomas Russo – Buy and Hold…and Then What (EP.16):
    capitalallocatorspodcast.com/2017/07/10/tomrusso/
    13F Filing for Glenn Greenberg's Brave Warrior Capital Hedge Fund (12/31/2017):
    https://insidermonkey.com/hedge-fund/brave+warrior+capital/116/
    and, Great Investor Glenn Greenberg Discusses His Investment Philosophy:
    basehitinvesting.com/great-investor-glenn-greenberg-discusses-his-investment-philosophy/
    Interesting search site of Hedge Funds:
    https://hedgemind.com/hedge-fund-portfolios/Glenn-Hank-Greenberg
  • Any problem with YCGEX?
    "When [Brian Yacktman] suggested lowering the minimum [of $50M to manage separate accounts] to [his] father, he basically said, “Great idea, just don’t do it here!” because their business model was focused on managing very few, large accounts. So, with his [father's] blessing, in 2007, [Brian] left his firm and created Yacktman Capital Group, the name of which [was] later changed to the initials YCG to avoid confusion between the two firms."
    https://www.valuewalk.com/2015/09/moi-exclusive-interview-with-ycg-investments-brian-yacktman/
  • Value Funds vs. Growth Funds vs Bonds - No Longer True?
    Since it's been a couple of years since I last checked my 4 Portfolios, I'm re-reviewing all of my investments. I used to follow M* recommendations for proportion of Value vs Growth balance, and it did appear then and in the past that Value companies DID eventually come back in favor during tougher times to help mitigate the usually much larger Growth fund losses. After all, "shares of a company with solid fundamentals that are priced below those of its peers, based on analysis of price/earnings ratio, yield, and other factors." (they put it better than I tried to)
    But, in checking "VALUE" Mutual Funds and ETFs, ALMOST ALL of them have had greater losses than MANY of the Growth funds DURING the DOWN TIMES, along with the expected LOWER GAINS during the good times. This is not just for the period YTD, but over the last several years.
    In looking at many of the actual stocks/companies that are considered "VALUE", so many just seem "Old School" to me, and ones that have not - and will likely not in the future - keep up with what is, and has clearly been for a couple of years, the overall market demands. (And, besides, so many of them I am philosophically opposed to).
    The same seems to be true of almost all BOND funds. We've been at these incredibly low interest rates for a long time, so bond funds have been a good counter-investment, with enough minimal gains and certainly far less losses. Even though the government (and others) have clearly stated that there will be regular 3-4 annual increases, I'm thinking it could be at least another year or two. But, at any rate, most BOND FUNDS have not been doing well enough to end up with much more than CDs.
    So I would really like to hear your opinions. I am considering keeping so-called "VALUE" and BOND funds to a MINIMUM, and keeping my LARGE % of CASH as my alternative option to those. The cash would then be used to ADD to my existing GROWTH funds WHEN THEIR MARKET WAS DOWN over 10% (assuming those funds were still logical to keep).
  • M*: A Tumultuous First Quarter For International-Stock Funds
    FYI: International-stock funds faced a topsy-turvy investment environment in the first quarter of 2018. The year started off positively as the generally favorable macroeconomic, geopolitical, and corporate conditions of 2017 persisted. The MSCI ACWI ex USA Index returned 5.6% in U.S. dollar terms in January, while the French, German, Japanese, and several other developed exchanges posted mid-single-digit gains, and the Brazilian, Chinese, and a few other emerging markets earned somewhat higher returns.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.morningstar.com/articles/858493/a-tumultuous-first-quarter-for-internationalstock-.html
  • What Volatile Market? Growth-Fund Managers Strut: (PSGAX)
    FYI: In The Wall Street Journal’s latest Winners’ Circle contest, every top-performing mutual fund once again featured ‘growth’ in its name.
    The first three months of 2018 were a volatile period, culminating in the S&P 500’s first quarterly loss since mid-2015.
    But behind the scenes, some disciplined mutual-fund managers who focus on “growth” stocks—those powered by corporate-earnings potential—continue to rack up gains. In fact, they are dominating, led by the $2.5 billion Virtus KAR Small-Cap Growth Fund (PXSGX), which has won The Wall Street Journal’s latest Winners’ Circle contest of the best-performing U.S.-stock fund managers. It returned 40.8% in the 12 months ended March 30 (drubbing the 19.9% gain for small-cap growth funds overall, as tracked by Lipper).
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.cetusnews.com/business/What-Volatile-Market--Growth-Fund-Managers-Strut.B18VI8_iM.html
    M* Snapshot PSGAX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/PSGAX/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot PSGAX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/psgax
    PSGAX Is Ranked #6 In The (SCG) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/small-growth/virtus-kar-small-cap-growth-fund/psgax
  • Yes, U.S. equity ended higher at the close, BUT more of the 2pm sell down.....lend me your opinion
    The tech. areas had a decent close; but coughed up 2% of the daily gain after 2pm.
    A quick look indicates similar actions in other equity areas, although tech. had the largest percent down.
    The dollar value of trades to cause these large changes has to be VERY LARGE.
    Any thoughts on this, other than trading the gains with the late day clock.............not a new event.
    Am I going to have to become a late day, day trader with the etf's???? :)
    Thanks.
    Catch
  • Buy-Sell-Ponder, anticipating April, 2018
    @MikeM,
    Interesting ... Your brain, like most of ours, is having to deal with the “fear of missing out” (on future gains), which is an entirely normal human reaction - owing in large measure to the length and extent of the recent bull market.
    While buying the dips is often profitable, sometimes it amounts to nothing more than grabbing for the proverbial falling knife. I think you are on the right track in sticking with your plan and trying to err on the side of caution. No crystal ball or expertise in market analysis here. Like you, I try to read a lot of varying opinions from those with more knowledge, qualifications, and experience than myself - some appearing in David’s monthly Commentary (ies). And than shape my own conclusions.
    I doubt you were serious about selling everything on March 11. https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/39024/because-nobody-knows-what-s-going-to-happen-next
    But had you done so you would probably be money ahead at the moment. The S&P 500 closed at 2786.5 on Friday, March 9, near a record high. The NASDAQ actually did reach a record high that day (7561). Since than there’s been a lot of turbulence - as even veteran Jack Bogle has noted.
    Our situations are much different. But FWIW, the only “buying” I’ve done in recent weeks is to dribble a bit into PRWCX, bringing cash levels a bit closer to normal. (Some don’t even place that one in the equity camp - considering it a balanced or allocation fund.)
    Dry powder is better than shot powder. As Yogi noted, the nice thing about cash is that “you can spend it.”
    Regards and thanks for all the great posts.
  • Mark Hulbert: Stock Guru Who Called S&P 500 Gains Sees No New Market High Before October
    FYI: Sam Eisenstadt says investors can expect mediocre six-month returns.
    Investors should give up any hope that the stock market will hit a new high within the next six months.
    That at least is the latest forecast from Sam Eisenstadt, the former research director at Value Line Inc. Though he retired in 2009 after 63 years at that firm, he continues to update and refine a complex econometric model that generates six-month forecasts for the broader U.S. market. That model’s latest projection is that the S&P 500 SPX, -2.19% will be trading at 2,775 on Sep. 30 of this year — more than 3% below its January all-time high.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-guru-who-called-sp-500-gains-sees-no-new-market-high-before-october-2018-04-06/print
  • Stunned Investors Reap 95% Gains On Defaulted Puerto Rico Bonds
    FYI: Of all the wild, head-scratching moves in financial markets this year, there are few that have surprised investors quite as much as the rally in defaulted Puerto Rico bonds. “It just blows my mind,” says Matt Dalton, chief executive officer of Belle Haven Investments.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/stunned-investors-reap-95--gains-on-defaulted-puerto-rico-bonds-37943.html?print
  • Is this beginning of double dip?
    Further thoughts on growth and income (to supplement retirement income):
    When I chart a cash choice (Ultrashort bond fund) like TSYYX (TSDOX) (which has a 24 year history) with a favorite growth fund (you pick yours)...I charted TSYYX with PRMTX... I imagine these two funds working together as the growth and income ingredients in a portfolio. The roughest growth period for PRMTX was between March 2000 - March 2010. It is during this spans of time one needed to have enough income stored in a fund like TSYYX to make distributions (for income) and make it through the under performance that PRMTX was experiencing.
    For a long term growth and income investor, TSYYX might also serve a the funding source to reallocate into your growth fund (PRMTX) opportunistically as it under performed during time periods. TSYYX might also serve as the recipient of your growth as it is reallocated out of growth into income, again periodically.
    Reallocating (re-balancing) between these two funds is one way of capturing these opportunities. Having two funds...one for growth fund and one for income...provides a place for these opportunities grow, to be harvested, to be stored and to be re-deployed when the time is right.
    @davidrmoran: So yes, timing matters...it means raising cash when growth outperforms and redeploying from cash when growth under performs. The timing method is called "rules based - periodic re-allocation or re-balancing." I'm calling cash (income fund) any investment that is highly uncorrelated to the growth fund (market).
    Source:
    https://investopedia.com/terms/r/rebalancing.asp
    @hank -Your cash holding may be serving this same purpose as a fund like FCONX or TSDOX (TSYYX). I guess I mention this because many investors forget that reallocation help a portfolio harvest gains that can be used for income or to be redeployed when growth opportunities arise. Cash can serve that purpose as easily as a conservative fund.
    @MikeM...I'm easily impressed! Not going argue over a cash choice that works for you.
    24 year chart:
    image
  • Quarter Begins With Investors Asking One Thing: Is Nowhere Safe?
    FYI: The question facing investors as they enter the new quarter probably isn’t where to find the biggest gains. It’s more likely how to avoid the worst losses.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-02/quarter-begins-with-investors-asking-one-thing-is-nowhere-safe
  • Socially Conscious Investing Can Be A Money Pit
    First paragraph indicates author doesn't really know what socialism is. Individual investors taking their capital and doing whatever the hell they want with it--including giving it to socially responsible funds--is about as far from socialism as you can get.
  • Socially Conscious Investing Can Be A Money Pit
    FYI: What’s not to love about socially responsible investing? Your capital doesn’t just enrich your life, it also flows only to companies that do social good. Why, if enough people did this, companies that harm society would face higher capital costs as they received less capital, and they’d die out. Socially responsible investing combines the best features of capitalism and socialism into one nice, tidy package.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/socially-conscious-investing-can-be-a-money-pit-2018-03-29/print
  • MAPOX 1st Q div. 2018
    Ah, but tis all about total return on an investment, yes? A dividend or capital gain is the extra gravy.
    MAPOX is performing pretty good, compared to similar funds.